🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too

Well, there's the urban legend that Ana Gomes is just comedian Herman José disguised as a woman:
https://twitter.com/RONarciso06/status/1304224715792363521

Hehe this is what I was referencing to xD

The turnout numbers

[Mike88]

Hehe this is what I was referencing to xD

The turnout numbers

Hahaha. I know, I know.

About turnout, lines seem to be dissipating across the country, but in Lisbon there are still some lines of people waiting to vote, it seems.

[Mike88]

For anyone interested, here's the live feed of the TV networks for election night:

RTP1: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1
RTP3: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3
SIC: https://sic.pt/direto
TVI: https://tviplayer.oil.pt/direto/TVI
TVI24: https://tviplayer.oil.pt/direto/TVI24

I don't think non of them are geoblocked.

Results pages:

https://www.rtp.pt/eleicoes/presidenciais-resultados/2021

https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

[Mike88]

RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.

[Velasco]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too

Well, there's the urban legend that Ana Gomes is just comedian Herman José disguised as a woman:
https://twitter.com/RONarciso06/status/1304224715792363521

"Approaching hot" is a rather sexist remark, as well as the urban legends about Ana Gomes

Said this, attractiveness is a factor that undeniably helps in boosting the popularity of someone (politicians included). But maybe atractiveness works better in TV, because pictures in ballots are neccessarily small. Also, and this is another sign of sexism and male perspective, you seem to forget that more than a half of voters are women. Presumably most of them are heterosexual, thus more sensible to the charles of male candidates looking like JFK or Barack Obama (to put a couple of examples of toung male attractive candidates). Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is not that type of candidate,  but surely he has other qualities that make him popular. For sure there has been never discussion on whether Rebelo is hot or not. This usually hapoens with female candidates

[Mike88]

CMTV projection says that turnout will be between 42-46%.

[Mike88]

Polls close in 26 minutes in mainland Portugal and Madeira. RTP, SIC and TVI will, at that hour, release turnout projections.

[Mike88]

Line of people wainting to vote in Lisbon, just after 6pm:

[Mike88]

5 minutes until the first polls close.

[crals]

RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.

This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

[Mike88]

RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.

This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

We'll see. Twitter is already flooded with "rumored" exit polls, as always.

[Mike88]

Polls have closed in mainland Portugal and Madeira:

Turnout projections:

RTP: 45-50%
SIC: 40-44%
TVI: 41.5-45.5%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.

This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

Huh? I remember seeing Matias always above Ferreira in the polls? Do you think there has been a late shift because of their campaigns?
Although granted, the difference was always small and polls are imperfect anyway.

[Mike88]

RTP is talking to reporters in campaign headquarters by this order: Marcelo, Ana Gomes, André Ventura, João Ferreira, Marisa Matias, Tiago Mayan, Tino de Rans.

It could mean nothing, but it's still interesting.

This is the order I expect. João Ferreira had a better campaign than Marisa, and the rest is pretty much as expected.

Huh? I remember seeing Matias always above Ferreira in the polls? Do you think there has been a late shift because of their campaigns?
Although granted, the difference was always small and polls are imperfect anyway.

Actually the last polls of the campaign were putting Ferreira above or tied with Marisa Matias. I believe only one poll was putting Matias above Ferreira. Matias could be victim, also, of tactical voting for Ana Gomes. But, all of this are hypothesis. Let's wait for 8pm.

[Mike88]

Almost unanimous claim by pundits on TV: With these turnout numbers, a 2nd round will probably not be needed.

[Mike88]

There are still people voting and wainting in line in Lisbon.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo's press conferences outside his house are always a delight.

[Mike88]

15 minutes...

[Mike88]

5 minutes...

[Mike88]

PRESIDENT MARCELO REELECTED FOR A 2ND TERM.

[Mike88]

RTP exit poll:

Marcelo: 57-62%
Gomes: 13-16%
Ventura 9-12%
Matias: 3,5-5,5%
Ferreira: 3,5-5,5%
Tiago Mayan: 3-5%
Tino de Rans: 2-4%

[Mike88]

SIC exit poll:

Marcelo: 55,5-60,5%
Gomes: 13,1-17,1%
Ventura: 10,1-14,1%
Ferreira: 3,3-6,3%
Matias: 2,4-5,4%
Tiago Mayan: 2,3-5,3%
Tino de Rans: 1,3-3,3%

TVI exit poll:

Marcelo: 56,4-60,4%
Gomes: 12,2-16,2%
Ventura: 9,9-13,9%
Tiago Mayan: 2,3-6,3%
Matias: 2,2-6,2%
Ferreira: 2,1-6,1%
Tino de Rans: 0,9-4,9%

CMTV exit poll:

Marcelo: 55,8-60,6%
Gomes: 12,7-16,3%
Ventura: 10,1-13,7%
Matias: 3,1%-5,5%
Tiago Mayan: 3-5,4%
Ferreira: 2,9-5,3%
Tino de Rans: 1,6-4%

[Mike88]

Results so far:

51.5% counted:

66.1% Marcelo
12.3% Ventura
  9.3% Gomes
  3.8% Tino de Rans
  3.4% Matias
  3.2% Ferreira
  1.9% Tiago Mayan

Results with maps: https://observador.pt/interativo/presidenciais-veja-aqui-a-contagem-de-votos-ao-minuto-e-freguesia-a-freguesia/

[Mike88]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So far, Marcelo is leading in every single municipality in the country.

I assume it won't last - I can't imagine he will end up winning the most blood red Alentejo municipalities.