🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived.

There are 10,865,010 registered voters, in which 9,314,947 are registered in Portugal itself and 1,550,063 overseas. Voters will be able to vote in 12,273 polling stations across the country, 177 overseas. There are also 62,650 polling workers in these elections.

Election results and turnout updates will be posted in the official election page:

https://www.presidenciais2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Polls open at 8am and close at 7pm. Azores polls open and close one hour later due to the time difference. At 8pm, networks will release exit polls and it seems the 4 exit polls will be released at that hour.

[Mike88]

Polls opened at 8am. In some places, there were some lines of voters awaiting as poll workers were dumping the early votes into ballot boxes. The situation was normalized across the country by around 9am.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1353293522250706945

Presidential elections: Opening of polling places with some lines due to early votes

[Mike88]

Update: There are reports of some big lines in some polling stations in the main cities, Porto and Lisbon.

Lines in Sintra, Lisbon
https://twitter.com/pauloshdias/status/1353297091142029315

There will be a turnout update in 1 hour and a half, at 1pm.

[Mike88]

Voting in Arruda dos Vinhos, Lisbon:
https://twitter.com/rubenlmartins/status/1353309821160873985

In a new place, to ensure social distance, the voting takes place with all normality in the parish of Arruda dos Vinhos.

Here there is also a second vote for the RTP survey (made on paper and pen) and TVI / Obs (on tablet).

[Mike88]

Of the candidates running, Marisa Matias, João Ferreira, Tino de Rans and Tiago Mayan Gonçalves have already cast their ballots.

Live updates:

Observador: https://observador.pt/liveblogs/presidenciais-antonio-costa-apela-ao-voto/#liveblog-entry-514402

Público: https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/24/politica/noticia/eleicoes-portugueses-escolhem-presidente-republica-antonio-costa-apela-voto-1947665

Expresso: https://expresso.pt/presidenciais2021/2021-01-24-Presidenciais-em-direto-Portugueses-formam-longas-filas-para-votar-em-seguranca

[Mike88]

There are a few protests and boycots in this election. In Montalegre, Vila Real, protesters blocked one polling station to protest against the exploration of lithium in that municipality.

In one Barcelos parish, Braga, some are protesting against the lack of water sanitation in the parish and advising abstention.

[Mike88]

12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.

[Rikschard]

12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.

Is early voting already counted in that number?

[Mike88]

12pm turnout numbers:

2021: 17.07% (+1.25%)
2016: 15.82%
2011: 13.39%
2006: 19.32%

Very high turnout so far. Next turnout update at 5pm with numbers from 4pm.

Is early voting already counted in that number?

I assume so because polling workers had to dump early ballots in ballot boxes as polls opened and check voters registrations. And the turnout figures include the 1,5 million voters overseas so around 1,855,000 voters have already cast a ballot.

[Mike88]

In my hometown, there are some lines at polling places also:

[Mike88]

All the candidates have already voted. Long lines continue to be seen mainly in the main urban centers. Social distance and covid safety rules are delaying voting by a bit. Some voters are waiting almost one hour to cast a ballot.

[Mike88]

The ballot every single voter received:
https://twitter.com/elviobr/status/1353367510213648384
*Click of the photo to see the full ballot.

The first candidate on the list, Eduardo Baptista, will be counted as invalid as his candidacy was declared invalid for lack of signatures, but because of tight timetables, the ballots were printed before the Court ruling that rejected his candidacy.

Also, 45 minutes until the next turnout update.

[Tender Branson]

Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?

[Mike88]

Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?

Normally, one person has 1 or 2 names, like João Maria or Filipe Miguel, and then you add the parents, mother and father, surnames, which could also have 1 or 2 surnames, thus having a long name.

[njwes]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

[Tender Branson]

Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?

Normally, one person has 1 or 2 names, like João Maria or Filipe Miguel, and then you add the parents, mother and father, surnames, which could also have 1 or 2 surnames, thus having a long name.

It's strange to see 70 year old canddiates who have the surnames of their parents printed on a ballot.

On a birth certificate maybe yes, but for a 70 year old candidate ?

Funny tradition.

[Tender Branson]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

I think that is because there are still some illiterate people among the older (or even younger) generations, who like to vote on pictures of the candidates.

But there may be other reasons too.

[Mike88]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

I think that is because there are still some illiterate people among the older (or even younger) generations, who like to vote on pictures of the candidates.

But there may be other reasons too.

Yes, I believe that's the reason also. Having the portrait of the candidates on the ballot was done in the 70's, in the first elections, because, I assume, of the high rate of illiteracy in Portugal that in 1976, year of the first Presidential election, was around 25% of the population. So many voters would only recognize candidates by their portrait. Nowadays, I believe it's just a formality.

[Mike88]

Why do Portuguese people have so many names ?

Normally, one person has 1 or 2 names, like João Maria or Filipe Miguel, and then you add the parents, mother and father, surnames, which could also have 1 or 2 surnames, thus having a long name.

It's strange to see 70 year old canddiates who have the surnames of their parents printed on a ballot.

On a birth certificate maybe yes, but for a 70 year old candidate ?

Funny tradition.

Forgot also, and some women also add their husband surnames to their name. It's tradition, but these are the legal names, normally people are known for their first name and last surname.

[crals]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too

[Mike88]

Very interesting to see that they have a portrait of the candidate on the ballot! It'd be fascinating to see if there have been any studies done on what effect that might have--e.g., if candidates with conventionally attractive portraits do better than polling would indicate, or vice-versa, or if "standing out" marginally increases vote share.

Like, as the only woman in a ballot full of men and the only candidate who could reasonably be described as approaching hot, I'd have to think dos Santos Matias gets at least a bit of a boost.

She may look a bit manly, but Ana Gomes is a woman too

Well, there's the urban legend that Ana Gomes is just comedian Herman José disguised as a woman:
https://twitter.com/RONarciso06/status/1304224715792363521

[Mike88]

4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that.

Polls close in mainland Portugal and Madeira in 2 hours. In Azores, they will close 1 hour later.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that.

Beautiful news!

Hopefully the voting results will be just as beautiful as the turnout numbers.

[Mike88]

4pm turnout numbers:

2021: 35.44% (-2.25%)
2016: 37.69%
2011: 35.16%
2006: 45.56%

It's official. Turnout will not reach the low levels many were predicting, myself included, of just 30%. It will be much higher than that.

Beautiful news!

Hopefully the voting results will be just as beautiful as the turnout numbers.

We'll see. Polling was showing that Marcelo was the most punished candidate if turnout was really low, 30% or bellow that, and Ventura one of the most benefited. But, only the results will prove this.

And, Pedro Magalhães, one of Portugal leading pollsters and head of SIC/Expresso exit poll, posted this:
https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1353390045017739264

With a turnout of 35.4% at 4pm, we already know one thing: a cycle has been interrupted. The cycle started in 2001, in which elections with incumbent presidents had a much lower participation than the previous election. This "very inferior" will not occur.

[Mike88]

In terms of the number of ballots cast, at 4pm, 3,847,370 ballots were cast according to Observador newspaper. That's 175,845 more ballots that at the same hour in 2016.