🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

JUST IN: President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has confirmed he is infected with Covid-19. He has canceled all of his agenda for the next few days. He was to take part, tomorrow, in an all candidates debate on RTP1 and it seems he will not take part in the debate as he is isolated in the Presidential Palace.

André Ventura has also isolated himself and has also canceled all his campaign actions.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Prayers for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa!

And he's far from the first head of state to contract the virus... also RIP the final debate.

[Mike88]

Prayers for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa!

And he's far from the first head of state to contract the virus... also RIP the final debate.

Not sure about the debate. RTP seems to be contacting the campaigns to see what can be done. A "Skype debate" could be on the table. We'll see, but this has derailed even more a campaign that was already at minimums. It's also being reported that Marcelo is doing more tests to see if this is a "false positive" or not.

[VPH]

Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo did another test, like I posted above, and came out negative. According to the media, he did a final confirmatory test and is now waiting for the results.

Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.

I'm of the opinion that he could have a very surprising result. He's that kind of candidate who can serve as a protest vote without being too radical or too dangerous. We'll see.

Also, early voting update: 112,506 voters have already registered to vote early. The numbers are until 11:59pm yesterday.

[Mike88]

At the same time, new polling:

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (nc)
24.1% PSD (+0.5)
  9.1% BE (+1.8 )
  9.1% CHEGA (+1.4)
  5.7% CDU (+0.3)
  3.8% IL (-0.7)
  3.6% PAN (+0.2)
  2.3% CDS (-0.9) 
  0.2% Livre (-0.7)
  0.6% Others (-0.5)
  3.6% Invalid/Blank (-1.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.1)
3.0 Catarina Martins (+0.3)
2.7 André Silva (-0.1)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.4 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.3)
2.4 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.1 André Ventura (-0.1)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2021. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Tino de Rans' campaign is really fun to watch because it threads the line between a joke bid and a serious undertaking. He makes the divide murky.

Plus, Tino has again gone viral after an interview yesterday on TVI, with Miguel Sousa Tavares (one of the worst reporters in Portugal, IMO), in which he lecture Sousa Tavares about Presidential terms:
https://twitter.com/oTiagoDavid/status/1348747156258230273

Miguel Sousa Tavares: "Vitorino, are we going to have you here again in 4 years?"

Tino: "Miguel, the presidential elections are every 5 years."

[VPH]

Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

[Mike88]

Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

Yep, no poll putted him that high, although there was a poll that gave him 2.5% on election eve. Nonetheless, no one predicted he would be just 0.7% behind the PCP candidate. Currently, the highest he has in one poll is 2.0%.

[Mike88]

And... Marcelo's confirmatory test came back negative. Yesterday he made 4 testes: one antigen test, during the morning that was negative, and then 3 PCR tests, the first came back positive but the following two tests came back negative. The media says the President is now awaiting guidance from Health authorities.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

You should definitely post in this thread more often!

Anyway, I hope that in the end Marcelo just got a false positive.

[Mike88]

Wasn't his 3.28% already a surprisingly high figure in 2016 compared to expectations? I have read that, although I didn't follow Portuguese politics as closely when I was a teenager.

You should definitely post in this thread more often!

Anyway, I hope that in the end Marcelo just got a false positive.

All signs point to that, and many doctors and specialists have been commentating it this afternoon on TV. Many candidates were also tested, Ventura and Matias tested negative and will resume campaigning tomorrow. Ana Gomes also said that postponing the elections should be on the table as the pandemic situation in Portugal is very likely to get worse even with the lockdown to start this Thursday. All candidates took part in the Infarmed meeting that gathered politicians and health specialists to analyse the current situation in the country.

Regarding tonight's debate, RTP says it plans to go ahead with the debate, but, if necessary, is ready to postpone it to a later date.

[Mike88]

Regarding tonight's debate, RTP says it plans to go ahead with the debate, but, if necessary, is ready to postpone it to a later date.

RTP has now confirmed the debate will indeed happen with all candidates present:
https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1349053672077062146

UPDATE: President Marcelo will participate in the debate via video call/Skype.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: All candidates debate on RTP1.

https://twitter.com/itwitting/status/1349164537845579776

Candidates remove postponement of elections

In a weird debate where one of the candidates was present only by screen, the 7 candidates discussed their proposals and what posture they would have as President of the Republic. It was a serene debate and not at all tense and in some moments quite boring, unlike previous one on one debates. Nonetheless, all of the attacks were centred in Marcelo. Candidates first started to comment the possibility of postponing the elections and the bad management in conducting the elections in this period. Ventura criticized the government for failing to prepare the elections but added that postponing the election is "unviable" right now; Ana Gomes said she would be open to postpone the election adding that the election isn't a "coronation". Tiago Mayan also criticized the government's bad management of the elections, João Ferreira said that candidates shouldn't create panic and Tino de Rans also said he supported postponing the elections saying it was evident that a 3rd wave was coming and that he would he ashamed of being sworn in with a 50%+ abstention rate. Marisa Matias said she would do the best possible to the campaign in the current limitations. President Marcelo said that he talked with all parties about a snap Constitutional change to postpone the election, but not a single party supported.  

The debate went on to discuss more ideological topics, like the role of the private sector in Healthcare. Here there was a clear right-left split. Both Mayan and Ventura attacked the ideological prejudice the left has against the private sector, while Ana Gomes, just like Matias and Ferreira, lashed out against the neo-liberal policies in the Health system and attacked Marcelo for supporting the private sector. On his part, President Marcelo said he supports more budget money for the NHS but, if necessary, a support from the private sector. Tino de Rans said he doesn't see a difference between the private sector and the public sector and that at the end of the day, the most important is being taking care of. President Marcelo was attacked by the right and Tino de Rans for being too close to Costa, while the left candidates said that Marcelo doesn't care about parts of the society and that will prepare the ground for a return of the right to power. Marcelo responded by saying that his role, as President, is to unite and be a force of stability.

Questioned about what country they see, Tiago Mayan said that if Marcelo is reelected, he will end his term as the President of one of Europe's poorest countries, while Ventura said that Portugal is a country drowning in taxes and that this needs to change. Ana Gomes said the fight against climate change and tax evasion should be a priority and are a problem in Portugal. Matias pressed of the issue of inequality while Ferreira said the country needs to take back control of many of its assets. President Marcelo said he wanted the country to be happier.

Full debate:
Part 1

Part 2

[Mike88]

Plus, some weird, and currently viral moments surrounding the debate.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa arriving home from the Presidential Palace to start preparing for the debate, but "furious" with Health authorities for not giving him a written response answering if he could go to the debate personally:
https://twitter.com/oTiagoDavid/status/1349092723295453195

Marcelo: "I'm really angry"

And Ana Gomes after the debate, on RTP3, criticizing the organization of the debate because of how cold the set was:
https://twitter.com/oTiagoDavid/status/1349149233090326528

Nobody speaks of this: the cold and the chairs of the debate.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Early vote update.

As of yesterday, 151,396 voters had registered to vote early on January 17. The deadline for registration is Thursday.

[Mike88]

Electoral compass for the 2021 Presidential elections:

https://emquemvotar.pt/

My results were:

77.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
72.5% Tino de Rans
62.0% Ana Gomes
57.6% Marisa Matias
57.3% André Ventura
50.9% João Ferreira
50.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Electoral compass for the 2021 Presidential elections:

https://emquemvotar.pt/

My results were:

77.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
72.5% Tino de Rans
62.0% Ana Gomes
57.6% Marisa Matias
57.3% André Ventura
50.9% João Ferreira
50.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

I tried this too because why not! I found the questions surprisingly simple (which is not a bad thing).

My results were:

84.3% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
74.1% João Ferreira
71.9% Ana Gomes
62.2% Marisa Matias
58.9% Tino de Rans
50.4% André Ventura
46.4% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves

Our preference orders are almost opposite of each other save for Ventura, lol. I guess it makes sense, since my impression is that you are something something classical liberal and I am pretty much a (small-c conservative) leftist. Not that this matters much since I am not Portuguese, of course.

[Mike88]

Our preference orders are almost opposite of each other save for Ventura, lol. I guess it makes sense, since my impression is that you are something something classical liberal and I am pretty much a (small-c conservative) leftist. Not that this matters much since I am not Portuguese, of course.

I'm a bit more liberal yes, but my belief is that in order to have a strong welfare state, you need a strong economy, and Portugal's economy is very fragile and lacks to fund our very good welfare state. I would say I'm more a "moderate liberal", if there's such a thing. But, to be honest, I'm not a very big fan of IL, them seem too naive and many of their proposals, like the 15% flat tax which I voted against in the compass, doesn't seem feasible to me. Nonetheless, I'm still a bit undecided on who to vote for. I was leaning strongly towards Ana Gomes, but her performances in the debates disappointed me, as she made the stupid mistake, IMO, of always talking about CHEGA and banning it instead of talking about her main flags against corruption and against special interests, which I actually like about her.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will continue isolated as his security body chief is also infected. The President's tests are also being investigated, because of the positive one he had, contrary to the rest of the tests that came back negative.

PSD leader Rui Rio also informed his test came back negative but that he will continue isolated for 14 days.

[Mike88]

Cold wave energy prices: Government will introduce a 10% discount in energy bills for all families.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1348990751670210561

Electricity: Government prepares 10% discount on the electricity bill

In the middle of big cold wave in Portugal that made energy consumption rise to almost record levels, the government announced it will introduce a 10% discount in electricity bills for all families. This measure is planned to start during January and the policy "provides for the payment of about 10% of the monthly bill, which in practice means the difference between the 2020 bill and this year's bill". The government expects this policy to cost 20-25 million euros per month. The government is also planning to impose a price limit in the sale of sale of cylinder gas.

[crals]

Did that quiz a few days ago (seems it has been taken down now), don't remember the exact results but Ana Gomes was 1st. Even though her campaign wasn't great (I can't believe how some of the left and some media still haven't realized that the more attention they give to the far-right, the more it will grow) I will be voting for her next Sunday, if only for the joy of seeing Ventura below her.

(J/k I actually appreciate her as a credible voice against corruption and her career in diplomacy, though I don't actually think she'd be as good a President as Marcelo to be honest)

[Mike88]

Did that quiz a few days ago (seems it has been taken down now), don't remember the exact results but Ana Gomes was 1st. Even though her campaign wasn't great (I can't believe how some of the left and some media still haven't realized that the more attention they give to the far-right, the more it will grow) I will be voting for her next Sunday, if only for the joy of seeing Ventura below her.

(J/k I actually appreciate her as a credible voice against corruption and her career in diplomacy, though I don't actually think she'd be as good a President as Marcelo to be honest)

Yeah, it was taken down. Weird. I'm still undecided. But I'm still a bit inclined to vote Ana Gomes for, like I wrote above, her anti-corruption speech. Until Sunday, I will make a decision.

Are you also going to vote early Crals?

[crals]

Did that quiz a few days ago (seems it has been taken down now), don't remember the exact results but Ana Gomes was 1st. Even though her campaign wasn't great (I can't believe how some of the left and some media still haven't realized that the more attention they give to the far-right, the more it will grow) I will be voting for her next Sunday, if only for the joy of seeing Ventura below her.

(J/k I actually appreciate her as a credible voice against corruption and her career in diplomacy, though I don't actually think she'd be as good a President as Marcelo to be honest)

Yeah, it was taken down. Weird. I'm still undecided. But I'm still a bit inclined to vote Ana Gomes for, like I wrote above, her anti-corruption speech. Until Sunday, I will make a decision.

Are you also going to vote early Crals?

Yep. Hoping to avoid other voters as much as possible.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Early vote update.

Today is the last day to register in order to vote early next Sunday, 17 January. Until 11:59pm yesterday, 196,786 voters had register to cast an early ballot.