🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Parliament rejects, for now, André Ventura's request to be substituted in Parliament in order to run for President.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1343976590053502976

Parliament rejects the suspension of mandate of MP André Ventura

After the Court ruling demanding that Ventura has to correct some irregularities in his candidacy papers, he suffered another blow, altough it could be temporary. The Parliamentary Transparency Committee has rejected Ventura's request to suspend his term in order to run for President, and be substituted by the number 2 in CHEGA's Lisbon list. The PS, PSD, BE and PCP rejected the report made by CDS MP, João Ferreira, that said the the Presidential election law is superior than Parliament rules and that Parliament shouldn't give excuses for Ventura to victimize himself. The committee will meet again next week to analyse another report, this time made by a PS MP. CDS and PAN voted in favour and 3 PS MPs also voted in favour against the party's official line. The PSD rejected the request because Parliament rules have to be clear and they will present changes in the rules later today.

However, Ventura did say this, in February 2020, about a possible suspension of his seat in order to run for President:

I will work on my presidential candidacy without ever forgetting that my first obligation is in parliament. I will not suspend my mandate and will therefore continue to exercise the functions for which I was elected

Nothing new, coming from him, but still awkward...

[Mike88]

2021 presidential debates: RTP will host debates with Tino de Rans as Porto Canal also scheduled several debates.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1344025572301803520

Politics - RTP extends political debates in presidential elections to include "Tino de Rans". SIC and TVI no change...

After several candidates and even pundits pressured TV networks to make space for Tino de Rans in the debates, RTP has accepted Tino in their all candidates debates and will also host a series of debates between Tino and the other candidates and they will be broadcast on RTP3 at 11:45pm between 4 and 9 January. Porto Canal will also host several debates between the candidates and was the first channel to include Tino de Rans in the debates. SIC and TVI decided to make no changes in their debate plans.

Tino de Rans was also received today by his "boss", Porto mayor Rui Moreira in Porto city hall:
https://twitter.com/_tinoderans_/status/1343906363735482368

Porto never closes its doors to anyone. #RuiMoreira #Porto

I knew he was a paver for Porto city hall, but didn't knew he was still working for the city.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Candidate that only delivered 11 signatures will be on the ballot, but all his votes will be considered invalid.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1344016723666677770

Ballot papers will even be headed by candidate who will not run

This situation is being criticized by pundits and analysts which accuse the Court and the Government of playing with serious things. Because early voting will start in just 2 weeks and half, ballots are already being printed well before the Court deadline to check if candidates delivered all of the adequate documents and required signatures. Because of this, candidate Eduardo Baptista, who only delivered 11 signatures, will still be on the ballot but his votes will be counted as invalid.

IMO, ridiculous situation. Why didn't they anticipated the deadline to deliver signatures a week or so? Not to mention that the rules to run for President, 7,500 signatures on paper, are also being criticized for their almost medieval manner.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on the electoral system:

Q1: Do you agree with the current proportional electoral system by electing MPs by district?

60.3% No
22.5% Yes
17.2% Undecided

Q2: Would you like to elect your own MP by a majority system (FPTP)?

65.3% Yes
20.0% No
14.8% Undecided

Q3: What electoral system would you prefer?

47.3% Mixed system
25.0% First-past-the-post
16.9% The current proportional system
  0.7% Other
10.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 18 and 20 December 2020. Polled 1,033 voters. MoE of 3.05%

[Mike88]

Government accused of falsifying the CV of their chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1344604221862133761

Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TSF radio/JN and DN newspapers on TAP and Eduardo Cabrita position:

Q1: What's your view regarding the current situation of TAP airlines?

42% Save it with public money
37% Let it go Bankrupt
21% Undecided

Q2: Does the Interior Minister, Eduardo Cabrita, has conditions to stay in cabinet in the light of the SEF scandal?

65% No
24% Yes
11% Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 December 2020. Polled 812 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

Some interesting points: Regarding the future of TAP, there's a deep generational divide with younger voters wainting to let TAP go bankrupt, but older voters want to save it with public money. In terms of regions, the North is also against saving TAP. Regarding Eduardo Cabrita, all parties demand his resignation and even 52% of PS voters.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

However, Ventura did say this, in February 2020, about a possible suspension of his seat in order to run for President:

I will work on my presidential candidacy without ever forgetting that my first obligation is in parliament. I will not suspend my mandate and will therefore continue to exercise the functions for which I was elected

Nothing new, coming from him, but still awkward...

I'm both surprised and unsurprised that Ventura manages to break his promises and his words on *everything*

Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".

Big oops from whoever member of the government did this. Like, why?
Speaking of which, why was Mendes de Almeida rejected in the first place?

[Mike88]

Government gave false information to the EU in choosing the European prosecutor

The government's chosen candidate for Portugal's European Prosecutor, José Guerra, had his CV falsified by the government, according to RTP and SIC networks. The original candidate, chosen by an international committee, Ana Mendes de Almeida was rejected by the government, so a letter was sent to the European Commission asking them to accept Justice José Guerra because of 3 important points in his CV. But, the Attorney-General office sent a letter saying all 3 reasons pointed in Justice Guerra CV are false. Justice Guerra said he had no responsibility in the making of the letter to the EU but refused any more comments. The Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, is also refusing to comment the controversy. In the EU, of the 19 countries, only Portugal, Bulgaria and Belgium refused the international committees decisions and nominated their own candidate. The opposition is already demanding explanation, calling this episode "very serious".

Big oops from whoever member of the government did this. Like, why?
Speaking of which, why was Mendes de Almeida rejected in the first place?

It seems it was the Justice ministry that sent the letter, but the reasons for it are anybody's guess. What's weird is that many of Justice Guerra CV forgeries, are actual roles Justice Mendes de Almeida played in the Portuguese Justice system. Guerra says it must be an "error", however no one would make an "error" of this scale. But, at the same time, the Justice minister republished the CV of Justice Guerra and none of the "errors" are now present in this new CV published.

Like I said, no one knows why they did this. This looks like they really wanted one person to be selected, it wasn't so they force it and in the process faked some info. We'll see if there's more updates in this story.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TSF radio/JN and DN newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.5% PS (+1.3)
25.4% PSD (+1.5)
  8.5% BE (+0.6)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.2)
  5.7% CDU (-0.1)
  4.7% PAN (-1.8 )
  3.5% IL (+1.2)
  0.5% Livre (-0.1)
  0.3% CDS (-0.7)  
  5.2% Others/Invalid (-2.2)

Preferred PM:

53% António Costa (+3)
19% Rui Rio (+1)
22% Neither
  4% Both
  7% Undecided

Government's approval rating:

47% Approve (-4)
31% Disapprove (-2)
19% Average (+7)
  3% Undecided (-1)

President of the Republic approval rating:

62% Approve (-12)
22% Disapprove (+13)
14% Average (nc)
  3% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 December 2020. Polled 812 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

Some crosstabs of the poll: PSD wins the youth vote, slightly, while the PS wins the rest of voters in all ages; Men are a bit split between PS and PSD, while Women vote PS by a margin of 20% over the PSD. In terms of regions, PSD and PS tie in the North, while the PS wins comfortably all other regions. Also, the CDS results, Yikes! however Aximage does have a history of underpolling CDS by a lot but, nonetheless, follows the trend that the party is disappearing.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential debates start today:

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1345304893922410496

Presidential debates kick off today! João Ferreira - André Ventura, starting at 22:00, on TVI24

https://twitter.com/RTP1/status/1345325967263158278

But in these elections the debate of ideas is important, so the journalist Carlos Daniel will moderate five debates between candidates for the Presidential Elections in a simultaneous RTP1 and RTP3. Today (2 January): Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa / Marisa Matias

The Presidential election debates start this evening with Marcelo vs Marisa Matias on RTP1 and Ventura vs João Ferreira on TVI24. Until January 9th, several one on one debates will occur with an all candidates debate schedule for January 12 on RTP1.

Voters are now starting to ask to vote early, with prisoners and people hospitalized having until Monday to ask for a ballot. Beginning next Sunday, between 10 and 14 January, voters will able to register to cast an early ballot on January 17.

[Mike88]

As expected, the Ventura vs Ferreira debate on TVI was a trainwreck. Both candidates shouting against each other at the same time, a bit chaotic, Ventura accusing PCP of defending Venezuela and North Korea and Ferreira accusing Ventura of being financed by big business.

At the same time, it seems that the websites of PCP and João Ferreira went down during and after the debate, as Ventura accused the party of having references towards Lenine and dictatorial states in their website.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

66.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.5)
13.0% Ana Gomes (+2.1)
10.6% André Ventura (-0.1)
  4.5% Marisa Matias (-0.6)
  2.8% João Ferreira (-0.7)
  1.7% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.7)
  0.8% Tino de Rans (nc)

Poll conducted between 17 and 27 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

[Mike88]

CDS leader will file complaint against Aximage polling company because of the share it gives to the party:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1345882936789360642

Leader will complain to the ERC of the survey that puts the CDS near its end

This weekend's Aximage poll raised eyebrows for the almost 0% share it gives to CDS. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, was furious with polling company accusing it of antics, tricks and of having very little technical rigor. He said the party would file a complaint to the media regulator against the polling company. Rodrigues dos Santos also trashed Aximage polling director Almeida Ribeiro, a former secretary of state under PM José Sócrates and advisor of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, saying they should be ashamed of themselves and recalled the controversy where Mr Ribeiro was accused, during the 2020 Benfica elections, of hyping poll results in favour of Luís Filipe Vieira.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for TSF radio/JN and DN newspapers:

Vote share %:

61.4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.7)
15.4% Ana Gomes (-0.9)
  8.0% André Ventura (+1.4)
  7.5% João Ferreira (+5.4)
  5.6% Marisa Matias (-0.3)
  1.1% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (nc)
  1.0% Blank/Invalid (-1.1)

38.5% Turnout (-4.3)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 December 2020. Polled 812 voters. MoE of 3.40%.

[Mike88]

The "CV scandal" creates its first victim: Director of the Judicial Policy resigns but says the minister knew everything from the start.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1346062332317716482

European prosecutor's resume. Director-General for Justice Policy resigns

The Justice minister has accepted the resignation of the Director-General for Justice Policy, Miguel Romão, in the Justice ministry after the press revealed that the Government had faked the CV of Portugal's candidate for European prosecutor. However, Mr Romão says that the forgery of the CV was of the full knowledge of the Minister Van Dunem since the beginning. He adds that although he didn't had direct responsibility but that it was his duty as he as the head of administrative staff. Nonetheless, pundits, parties and the media are pressuring the minister of Justice. On RTP, this weekend, the minister said the case has been "exaggerated" and that it was just a mistake, adding that Justice Guerra was the best candidate for the job. Many pundits aren't buying the minister's explanations and say she is in a very precarious situation, adding that the government continues to not accept responsibility for their own mistakes.

Also, there will be a debate this evening between Tino de Rans and Ventura on RTP3. If it goes down like the Ventura-Ferreira debate on TVI, get ready for trainwreck 2.0.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

39.7% PS (-0.6)
27.9% PSD (-0.6)
  9.1% CHEGA (+0.7)
  5.6% BE (+0.1)
  4.1% CDU (-1.2)
  3.3% IL (+0.9)
  2.3% CDS (+0.5)
  1.7% PAN (-0.5)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (+0.7)

Poll conducted between 17 and 27 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So many polls, lately.

[Mike88]

PM Costa secures his Justice Minister and labels the current controversy as "slips without relevance":

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1346210781470334982

António Costa expresses "total political trust" in the Minister of Justice

After a day where the Justice minister was criticized by almost everybody, from left to right, PM Costa sent a press realease to the media saying he has full political trust in the Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, adding that there were just "two lapses without relevance, by the way, for the selection process". He adds that the process of picking the candidate from Portugal was done by the book and respected a selection made by Superior Council of the Public Ministry.

At the same time, some media outlets are reporting that the candidate chosen by the International committee, Justice Ana Carla Almeida, is part of the judicial team investigating the facts surrounding the "anti-fire masks scandal" that led to the resignation of the secretary of internal affairs just 3 weeks before the  2019 elections.

[Mike88]

The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:

Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.

[njwes]

The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:

Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.

........how do you think the average politicaly-interested Portuguese citizen would react to that? Like I'm sure that there's a big online contingent going "yaaaass kween!" but (at least to me as an American) this sounds incredibly cringey, trite, overly dramatic, and patronizing.

[Mike88]

........how do you think the average politicaly-interested Portuguese citizen would react to that? Like I'm sure that there's a big online contingent going "yaaaass kween!" but (at least to me as an American) this sounds incredibly cringey, trite, overly dramatic, and patronizing.

It's being interpreted like an act the clearly differences Tino and Ventura. Ventura does have a tone against some minorities and Tino used the "rock metafore" to say he doesn't see differences in people like Ventura. Yes, it was a bit of an awkward moment, but Tino de Rans is known for these kind of awkward moments, he became famous because of weird situations and he also works as a paver, so he has a link with rocks. . Some pundits even say that it made Ventura feel uncomfortable and not knowing how to respond.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Court rejects Ventura's appeal and Parliament once again rejects his substitution as a MP in order to run for President.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1346512038915411968

Presidential: Parliament rejects temporary replacement of Ventura

Parliament has rejected, once again, Ventura's proposal to be substituted as a MP with the number 2 of CHEGA's list for Lisbon. The new report, done by a PS MP, says the current Parliamentary rules and laws forbid a MP to be substituted because of the reasons evoked by Ventura, but they will justify automatically all absences by Ventura during Parliamentary sessions. The parties that rejected Ventura's appeal were, once again, PS, PSD, BE and PCP. PAN and CDS were willing, again, to give Ventura a pass. At the same time, the PSD is proposing changes in the rules to make it easier for MPs to be substituted.

Ventura also saw, today, his appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court rejected. Ventura wanted the Court to force Speaker Ferro Rodrigues to decide his situation as a MP running for President. But the Court ruled that this is not a matter of Courts decision and it's exclusively a Parliamentary one, thus being incompetent to rule any decision.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This weekend's Aximage poll raised eyebrows for the almost 0% share it gives to CDS. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, was furious with polling company accusing it of antics, tricks and of having very little technical rigor. He said the party would file a complaint to the media regulator against the polling company. Rodrigues dos Santos also trashed Aximage polling director Almeida Ribeiro, a former secretary of state under PM José Sócrates and advisor of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, saying they should be ashamed of themselves and recalled the controversy where Mr Ribeiro was accused, during the 2020 Benfica elections, of hyping poll results in favour of Luís Filipe Vieira.

Lmao
This is totally a move that will give more credibility to your party, yes.

The viral moment when, during the debate, Tino de Rans puts rocks in the table he caught from a beach in Peniche:

https://www.facebook.com/marceloafazercoisas/videos/2844028902536921/?t=23

Ventura's face is priceless. But what was Tino trying to say? Well, that the sea brings rocks of all colours and sizes, just like there are people with different colours and beliefs, but that the sea also brings "people" who want to built walls.

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Not a good week for him between that and the rejection of his Court appeal...

[Velasco]

When you walk by the sea, sometimes you see pebbles in the sand with nice colours. So sad Andre Ventura is not able to appreciate the simple things

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain

Well I obviously don't mean destroyed in a literal sense and he won't be politically hurt at all. But it was a great moment (for Tino, that is).
For that matter, Ventura has produced countless of worse moments and he hasn't been hurt at all by them. I know he won't just go away.

[Mike88]

Ventura's face is more than priceless! I was literally laughing out loud. He was destroyed.

Ventura looks embarrassed, not sure if he was destroyed. His counterpart Santiago Abascal was utterly trashed in a recent debate in the Spanish Congress, but apparently the failure of the Vox's motion of no confidence had no impact in the polls. I guess this viral moment won't harm Ventura at all, because it's just an ephemeral thing. The underlying causes that contribute to the rise of the xenophobic far right remain

Well I obviously don't mean destroyed in a literal sense and he won't be politically hurt at all. But it was a great moment (for Tino, that is).
For that matter, Ventura has produced countless of worse moments and he hasn't been hurt at all by them. I know he won't just go away.

According to TV ratings, the Tino vs Ventura debate was one of the most watched programs ever in RTP3, so a lot of people tuned in. And pundits also say that in his simple and a naive way, Tino de Rans was, till now, the only person to put Ventura in an uncomfortable position. The debate will not hurt Ventura, but could help Tino's chances, like Battista said, but there will be many debates, and possible moments, before election day.

Tomorrow, on SIC TV, will happen one of the most anticipated debates: Marcelo vs Ventura.