🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: With just 6 days left to collect signatures, candidates start formalizing their candidadies at Court.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1339959200756224006

Presidential elections: Presidential: Marisa Matias promises not to give up in favor of Ana Gomes

So far, 3 candidates have officially delivered signatures to the Constitutional Court in order to be on the ballot for the 24 January election. João Ferreira was the first, early this week, and today Ventura and Marisa Matias formalized their candidacies by delivering to the Court more than the 7,500 signatures needed. IL candidate, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, is expected to deliver his signatures today or Monday. Ana Gomes, Marcelo and other possible candidates, like Tino de Rans, could deliver their signatures on the last possible day, 24 December. However, Público newspaper reports that President Marcelo's campaign continues to struggle in getting signatures and that many local PSD leaders are refusing to sign Marcelo reelection papers.

[Mike88]

Things are getting tense in Porto city: DA offices asks for the removal of office of Porto Mayor, Rui Moreira, due to corruption accusation.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1339996616720142336

MP accuses Rui Moreira in Selminho case and asks for loss of mandate

The DA office has accused Porto's mayor, Rui Moreira, of malfeasance in a case, called Selminho, his family's real estate company, which tried to build an apartment building on a piece of land in the Arrábida escarpment that was partly owned by the municipality. The DA also says the mayor was partial towards his family and harmed Porto city's interests by benefiting his family company. Mr Moreira already reacted to the accusation saying he's surprised by it, and also because of the timing as Moreira is up for reelection next October. He added that the accusation is "ludicrous and unfounded" but that he's calm and that he will give a more complete statement next Monday.

This is the 3rd big city mayor, this year, to face a removal from office request by the DA: Castelo Branco city mayor (PS) lost his case earlier this year and was removed from office; and Maia city mayor (PSD/CDS) was also asked to be removed from office but he won his case and will stay on as mayor.

[Mike88]

CESOP-UCP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

37% PS (-2)
30% PSD (+4)
  7% BE (nc)
  7% CDU (+1)
  6% CHEGA (-1)
  5% IL (+2)
  3% CDS (nc)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% Others/Invalid (-4)

Poll conducted between 4 and 11 December 2020. Polled 1,315 voters. MoE of 2.70%.

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

68.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
11.0% Ana Gomes
  9.0% André Ventura
  6.5% Marisa Matias
  3.5% João Ferreira
  0.9% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  0.2% Others

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

[Mike88]

More polling:

Eurosondagem poll for Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

62.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.6)
13.3% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
10.5% André Ventura (+0.5)
  6.7% Marisa Matias (-0.5)
  5.0% João Ferreira (nc)
  2.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+0.7)
  0.0% Other candidates (-3.3)

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 December 2020. Polled 2,020 voters. MoE of 2.18%.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

68.9% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
11.0% Ana Gomes
  9.0% André Ventura
  6.5% Marisa Matias
  3.5% João Ferreira
  0.9% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  0.2% Others

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

Candidates vote by party:

PS: 67.3% Marcelo; 15.7% Gomes; 1.6% Matias
PSD: 67.8% Marcelo; 9.9% Ventura; 4.6% Gomes
BE: 49.0% Matias; 23.5% Marcelo; 9.8% Matias
CDU: 68.0% Ferreira; 20.0% Marcelo; 8.0% Ventura
CDS: 36.8% Marcelo; 26.3% Ventura; 5.3% Mayan Gonçalves

Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Tino de Rans says he has more than the 7,500 signatures needed to be on the ballot.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1340235812814766086

Tino de Rans already has the signatures to run for President of the Republic

Vitorino Silva, aka Tino de Rans, leader of the RIR ("laugh" in Portuguese) party has announced he already has more than 7,500 signatures in order to be on the ballot. He says that he will deliver his signatures to the Court early next week. The deadline is 24 December. Tino de Rans, however, criticizes the media for not inviting him for the debates, like in 2016, and that this creates an "unequal" race.

With Tino de Rans announcing that he will deliver his signatures, probably 7 candidates will be on the ballot, unless some of the lesser known independents can gather the necessary signatures.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Given the party name I imagine Tino de Rans is a satirical candidate?

The Pitagórica poll paints a somewhat different cross-party situation, yeah. And Ventura taking so many CDS votes..

How serious do the accusations into Rui Moreira look? And will the mayoral election be in October regardless of whether or not he gest removed?
I wonder what the electoral scenarios are for this. I remember you saying that Porto has been trending to the right much lately, but I guess local elections are a different story.

[Mike88]

Given the party name I imagine Tino de Rans is a satirical candidate?

The Pitagórica poll paints a somewhat different cross-party situation, yeah. And Ventura taking so many CDS votes..

How serious do the accusations into Rui Moreira look? And will the mayoral election be in October regardless of whether or not he gest removed?
I wonder what the electoral scenarios are for this. I remember you saying that Porto has been trending to the right much lately, but I guess local elections are a different story.

1. Everyone is Portugal knows the great Tino. But, yeah, he's a satirical/a bit anti-system candidate and party leader that has had relative success, let's say: he polled 3.3% in the 2016 presidential elections, just 0.6% behind the PCP candidate and got 0.7% in the 2019 general elections, which may seem small but he was just 5,000 votes behind Santana Lopes's Alliance party. Tino de Rans was President of Rans parish, Penafiel-Porto district, from the PS and he became a national figure after his hilarious/weird speech in the PS 1999 national congress:

After that, he became famous instantly and was a regular guest in talkshows, TV contests and reality TV shows like Celebrity Big Brother. He works as a paver, and he indeed worked for Porto city hall, during a period.

2. The DA office asks several times for the removal of many mayors, but when the cases reach courts, in the majority of cases the mayors are allowed to remain in office. So, I would be very much surprised if Moreira is thrown out of office. Now, the case itself. The case goes back to 2001, when Moreira's family real estate company, Selminho, bought a piece of land in Porto city with a view to the river and the sea. But, the sketchy part start here: the signing of the deal was registered in Montalegre, a village near the border with Spain, plus then a legal dispute started with Porto city hall as the city said no building could be built there, which dragged on for years in Court. It was steeled in 2013, when the city accepted construction in the soil. However, there were errors in the measures in the size of the land and in 2017, another legal battle started which ended with the Courts nullifying the 2001 land bought. Moreira is accused by the DA of trying to use his influence to protect his family business. This has haunted Moreira during the last 8 years, his 2 terms in office, but like I said above, I doubt he will be removed from office because of this. Yes, the case is sketchy, but I think he will survive.

In a scenario in which he's indeed removed, the main beneficiaries are PSD and PS. The PS is out of power in Porto since 2001, and Moreira is very popular and particularly on the right. Moreira out of the race would improve the PS chances of winning Porto back. But, the PSD would also be happy with Moreira's removal, because although Moreira basically gathers all of the rightwing vote in the city, the PSD hates his guts even though it was the current PSD leader, Rui Rio, who basically got Moreira elected in 2013, when he refused to support his then "nemesis" in the party, Luís Filipe Menezes, in the race for mayor. Since then, Rio and Moreira became bitter enemies, so the PSD would also be happy as it means they would also have a chance in controlling the city again. Yes, if he's removed from office, his deputy would take over and in next year's local elections, a new mayor would be elected.

Porto has been trending to right in recent elections and it has been voting more to the right compared with the country as a whole. The paterns for national and local elections are quite similar, with Moreira, like I said above, gathering a big amount of the PSD/CDS vote in general elections. In 2017, the PSD candidate only got 10% of the votes, for example.

Again, I may be wrong but I doubt Moreira will be removed from office. I would be very surprised by it. We'll see.

[Mike88]

CHEGA-Azores headquarters vandalized during the early hours of the morning this Sunday:

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1340612140089155587

CHEGA Azores headquarters vandalized

The CHEGA party in the Azores said that their party headquarters was vandalized during the early hours of Sunday. Someone, or a some group, drew a smile in the front door of the headquarters and wrote the word "Badalhoca", which can be translated to filthy, in the facade of the building. The party has already condemned the act saying that they don't understand why in a democratic society acts like this happen, adding that this isn't the first time as they say that during the regional election campaign, many of their election posters were destroyed.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (+0.9)
23.6% PSD (-0.6)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.4)
  7.3% BE (-0.4)
  5.4% CDU (+0.5)
  4.5% IL (+1.2)
  3.4% PAN (-1.9)
  3.2% CDS (-0.9)
  0.9% Livre (-0.9)
  1.1% Others (-0.5)
  4.9% Blank/Invalid (+2.1)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (nc)
3.3 António Costa (+0.1)
2.9 Rui Rio (nc)
2.8 André Silva (-0.1)
2.7 Catarina Martins (-0.3)
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.2)
2.5 Jerónino de Sousa (-0.2)
2.2 André Ventura (+0.2)
2.0 Joacine Katar Moreira (nc)

Poll conducted between 14 and 18 December 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Marine Le Pen will attend a CHEGA rally on January 10.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1341011919780651009

Presidentials. André Ventura and Marine Le Pen together in Lisbon at the start of the election campaign

CHEGA informed the media, today, that Marine Le Pen, leader of RN, will be in Lisbon on January 10 to kick start Ventura's presidential campaign alongside Ventura himself. The model of the rally is still being studied, due to Covid-19 restrictions, the party adds.

[Farmlands]

Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.

You can count me in as a BE-Marcelo voter. I strongly respect both the man and the job he's been doing so far. As for Ventura, it's exactly what's happening in other parts of the world, with rural voters taking a hard turn towards nationalist parties recently, though a much slower shift here.

[Mike88]

Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.

You can count me in as a BE-Marcelo voter. I strongly respect both the man and the job he's been doing so far. As for Ventura, it's exactly what's happening in other parts of the world, with rural voters taking a hard turn towards nationalist parties recently, though a much slower shift here.

I'm still leaning towards Ana Gomes, although her latest speeches made me move a bit more to the undecided column. I like her anti-corruption speech and that's why I'm more inclined to vote for her. But, there's still a long time until election day. Also, like you said, about Ventura strength in rural areas, I'm very curious to see what his share will be in the South. I will post the poll when details are available, but it seems that the Intercampus poll puts the PCP candidate just 0.1% ahead of the IL candidate. Disaster for the PCP if it plays out.

[Mike88]

I will post the poll when details are available, but it seems that the Intercampus poll puts the PCP candidate just 0.1% ahead of the IL candidate. Disaster for the PCP if it plays out.

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

58.4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+1.8 )
12.1% Ana Gomes (-4.0)
10.9% André Ventura (+0.4)
  4.5% Marisa Matias (-4.2)
  3.3% João Ferreira (+1.0)
  3.2% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.6)
  7.6% Others (+3.4)

Poll conducted between 14 and 18 December 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

A man attacks the mayor of Abrantes, Santarém district, during a city council meeting:

A man attacked the mayor, his deputy and a city hall employee of Abrantes city, Santarém, during a council meeting. The meeting was being recorded live on social media and the audio of the incident was taped. The image video was blocked just before the man attacked the mayor. According to Jornal de Notícias, the mayor was struck by a cane which cut his lip, while his deputy was hurt in his arm. An city employee was also shoved by the attacker. All 3 were assisted by medical staff while the attacker was detained by the police. It seems the attacker is in a legal dispute with Abrantes city hall, as he accuses the city for bankrupting his business. The Courts have already acquitted the city hall, but the man in question isn't accepting the verdict.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo tries to force the dismissal of Eduardo Cabrita and basically says that the Health minister deceived the country about flu vaccines on a TV interview:

https://twitter.com/tvi/status/1341294497188200449

Marcelo pressures Cabrita: "Minister did not ask for resignation", like Constança Urbano Sousa

In an interview to TVI network, the President talked about the big issues facing the country right now. Surrounding the ongoing scandal of the killing of an Ukrainian citizen by border patrol agents, the President continued to press, although not directly, for the resignation of the current internal affairs minister Eduardo Cabrita, citting the example his predecessor, Constança Urbano Sousa, during the 2017 wildfires. Marcelo also said he was deceived like the Portuguese people as a whole, because of the shortage of flu vaccines because he trusted the word of the Health minister, Marta Temido. For the Covid-19 vaccine plan, the President said he did not just take the word of the minister for granted, but also talked personally with Pfizer representatives in Portugal to assure nothing goes off track.

He also explained how he will spent Christmas and this is creating some controversy. The President said he will have 3 different meals with different family members during the next 3 days, but all of the gatherings will have a maximum around of 5 people. However, many doctors say the President is clearly violation the Health authorities rules adding that what the President is planning to do isn't safe.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: President Marcelo delivers his signatures to be on the ballot, as it seems that 8 candidates will be on the ballot.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1341707382569664513

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa plans to spend 25,000 euros on the election campaign

President Marcelo delivered 12,000+ signatures to the Constitutional Court in order to be on the ballot for the January election. The President talked to reporters after delivering the signatures to the Court and said his campaign will be a positive one, adding he's the candidate for "stabilization, pacification and compromise". He also said his campaign will have no election posters, propaganda or rallies, stressing that his campaign budget is just 25,000 euros, with operational costs having the lion share.

Before Marcelo delivered his signatures, an Independent candidate, Eduardo Baptista, delivered his signatures also. Ana Gomes and Tino de Rans will deliver their signatures during today's afternoon, while Tiago Mayan Gonçalves is expected to deliver his signatures tomorrow, the deadline to file signatures. All points that there will be 8 candidates in the ballot.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Parliament will decide next week the suspension of Ventura as MP in order to run for President.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1341800828798185480

Commission decides Tuesday request for temporary suspension of André Ventura

CHEGA leader and MP André Ventura has asked for a temporary suspension of his seat in Parliament in order to run for the Presidency of the Republic. The decision will be made by the Parliamentary Transparency Committee and a ruling is expected by next Tuesday. However, all of this is controversial. Ventura says he wants more freedom in order to run for President and he's using the electoral law for the Presidency which says that any candidate can suspend their current office, private or public, in order to run. But, Parliamentary rules says that a MP can only ask for a temporary suspension due to "relevant reasons", like serious disease, paternity leave or judicial issues. Ventura also said that if the Committee doesn't approve his suspension, he will appeal to Constitutional Court with urgency. A legal war could last a bit.

If Ventura suspension is approved, he will be replaced by the number 2 in the Lisbon list for CHEGA, Diogo Pacheco de Amorim. Mr Amorim, 71 years old, is a rightwing ideologue who after the 1974 revolution joined the right-wing/far-right militia Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Portugal (MDLP), but then joined the AD government (1979-1983) as secretary for the deputy PM Freitas do Amaral. He then joined the CDS but left the party in the early 2000's for the rightwing PND led by Manuel Monteiro. However, his temporary rise as a MP is being received with worry by CHEGA because of his past as a far-right militant and his almost zero experience in Parliamentary procedures and debates.

[Mike88]

Chaos and violence in a CHEGA local party meeting in Santarém district:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1341864281655152642

Vega's meeting in Santarém was interrupted by assaults between militants. Police identified five people

The meeting was almost 3 weeks ago, but the media is reporting the total chaos that meeting was. On December 5th, 12 CHEGA members were invited to discuss the party's strategy for the local elections in Santarém district. The meeting was held in Santarém city. However, 3 non invited members showed up also and refused to leave the meeting, and then hell broke. One woman started beating one party member and several members started shouting against each other. The same woman had to be grabbed in order to not hit in another party member. The police was called, but the authorities say the situation was a bit worse as they were forced to identify 5 people and that 2 people had been beaten up.

This party is just a hot mess. Also, Santarém district is quite on fire: the CHEGA chaotic meeting and the Abrantes mayor attack.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Court will announce full list of candidates next Monday, as President Marcelo schedules a debate with Tino de Rans:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1342891479258292225

Presidentials: TC closes official list to Belém on Monday. Debates may go beyond expected

The exclusion of Tino de Rans from the debates is making some candidates to criticize TV networks for not including him. Tiago Maya and Ana Gomes have both said they are willing to debate with Tino de Rans and that he should be included in the TV debates. The 3 main networks, RTP, SIC and TVI, refused to change the current debate format. President Marcelo went even further and scheduled a debate between him and Tino de Rans on January 20 on Porto Canal. At the same time, the Constitutional Court will announce on Monday the list of candidates that delivered signatures and order them in the ballot. During the week, the Court will also review the signatures and see if the signatures are valid or enough.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Candidates campaign budgets.

450,000€ João Ferreira
256,000€ Marisa Matias
160,000€ André Ventura
  50,000€ Ana Gomes
  40,000€ Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  25,000€ Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  16,000€ Tino de Rans

This election will be the cheapest in Portuguese democracy, with the total projected expenditure of all candidates below 1 million euros.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %:

68.0% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.9)
10.9% Ana Gomes (-0.1)
10.7% André Ventura (+1.7)
  5.1% Marisa Matias (-1.4)
  3.5% João Ferreira (nc)
  1.0% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves
  0.8% Tino de Rans (new)
  0.0% Others (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

Also, cool diagrams from Observador newspaper regarding the poll:

https://observador.pt/interativo/sondagens-eleicoes-presidenciais-2021/

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential election: Marisa Matias fractured her ribs and was rushed to hospital and will have to adapt her campaign for the next few days.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1343569529750712322

"A fall caused my ribs to fracture." Marisa Matias continues campaigning in an adapted way

BE candidate, Marisa Matias, had to be assisted in Aveiro Hospital due to fall she suffered on Sunday that fractured some of her ribs. The candidate announced the incident of social media and thanked all the NHS professionals that assisted her. She also added that her campaign will suffer adjustments due to her fall. At the same time, she also announced her campaign will spend 256,000 euros in the race. (full details of candidates budgets in a post above).

Also, the Constitutional Court announced it received 8 candidacies, but it seems that only 7 will be approved in the end:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1343542380675420161

Presidentials. Marcelo in third place in the ballot order and Ana Gomes in last

The Court announced that 8 candidates delivered signatures in order to be on the ballot. The Court then raffled the names of the candidates to order them in the ballot, and the order is the following: Eduardo Baptista, Marisa Matias, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, André Ventura, Tino de Rans, João Ferreira and Ana Gomes. The Court will now review all of the papers and signatures sent by the candidates and after this, it's expected that the number of candidates will drop to 7 as it seems that candidate Eduardo Baptista only delivered a handful of signatures.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/Observador newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with the poll conducted between 10-13 December 2020)

40.3% PS (-1.6)
28.5% PSD (+2.5)
  8.4% CHEGA (+0.1)
  5.5% BE (-1.2)
  5.3% CDU (-0.2)
  2.4% IL (+0.9)
  2.2% PAN (-0.1)
  1.8% CDS (-0.1)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 December 2020. Polled 629 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Court accepts five candidacies and asks Ventura and Tiago Mayan to correct irregularities:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1343963624579059712

André Ventura and Tiago Mayan have flaws in their candidacies applications.

The Constitutional Court was already approved 5 candidacies, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Marisa Matias, Ana Gomes, João Ferreira and Tino de Rans, and has asked two candidates, André Ventura and Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, to correct irregularities in their candidacies. The Court says that Ventura didn't wrote his profession in the papers and Tiago Mayan needs to attach 1,500 registration certificates that are missing. Both candidates have 2 days to correct these irregularities. The other candidate, Eduardo Baptista, has been rejected by the Court for insufficient signatures, he only delivered 11 out of the 7,500 signatures necessary.