🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-2.8 )
23.9% PSD (-2.8 )
  8.3% BE (-0.2)
  6.8% CHEGA (+1.6)
  5.6% CDU (-0.4)
  4.8% PAN (+2.2)
  2.6% IL (+0.5)
  1.2% Livre (+1.1)
  1.1% CDS (-1.0)  
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+1.8 )

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

These poll results are so weird. Livre ahead of CDS? Really?

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-2.8 )
23.9% PSD (-2.8 )
  8.3% BE (-0.2)
  6.8% CHEGA (+1.6)
  5.6% CDU (-0.4)
  4.8% PAN (+2.2)
  2.6% IL (+0.5)
  1.2% Livre (+1.1)
  1.1% CDS (-1.0)  
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+1.8 )

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

These poll results are so weird. Livre ahead of CDS? Really?

Popularity ratings: (approve; disapprove)

António Costa: 51% (-13); 31% (+13)
Rui Rio: 30% (-16); 35% (+13)
Catarina Martins: 33% (+4); 33% (-3)
Jerónimo de Sousa: 18% (-1); 59% (+14)
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos: 13% (-4); 39% (+5)
André Silva: 22% (+7); 33% (-9)
André Ventura: 20% (+1); 56% (nc)
Cotrim Figueiredo: 14% (-1); 25% (-3)

Preferred PM:

48% António Costa (-7)
17% Rui Rio (nc)
25% Neither (+6)
  4% Both (nc)
  6% Undecided (nc)

Costa and Rio have a huge dip in popularity, Jerónimo de Sousa also crashes. The most intriguing dip in popularity is Rui Rio.

[Mike88]

CHEGA convention: André Ventura's leadership team rejected by delegates.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1307659682367102977

Team proposed by André Ventura failed at the convention

The CHEGA convention has been very eventful. After the pro and con rallies on Friday and a series of reports from the convention where delegates were seated too close to each other and where handshakes were common, another strange event happens. Mr Ventura leadership team didn't get the necessary votes to be approved. His list needed 2/3 of the delegates and he even didn't get more votes in favour, 193 against to 183 in favour. The convention is now suspended and Ventura has to present another leadership team.

[Mike88]

CHEGA "trainwreck" convention continues: Ventura's leadership team is once again rejected and police identifies delegates for not wearing masks.

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1307737637231435776

Portugal - CHEGA: André Ventura's list failed for the second time

In the second vote, the list presented by André Ventura obtained 219 votes in favor and 121 against, falling short of the two-thirds needed to be approved.

Update by Observador reporter on the scene of the convention:

https://twitter.com/porfiriojoao1/status/1307740567665770496

André Ventura's list failed for the second time for not reaching two thirds of the votes. He will present a third list after having made it clear to party members that he would resign as CHEGA's leader. Delegates were crying and Ventura was emotional.

[Mike88]

Update on the CHEGA convention: Ventura gets his list approved on a 3rd ballot.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1307759769030197248

CHEGA/Convention: List of directors of Ventura approved to the third

André Ventura leadership team was finally approved on the 3rd ballot. With fewer delegates voting, just 273, Ventura got 247 votes in favour. On the 1st ballot 378 delegates voted and on the 2nd ballot 340 delegates voted.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: RTP-Azores starts a series of debates between candidates.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1308069508649754624

RTP / Açores starts debates between candidates today

RTP-Azores will start, today, to broadcast a series of debates between the candidates for the October 25 regional elections. A special set was built in Ribeira Grande city to host the debates. Between 21 and 29 September, RTP will broadcast debates between candidates in the 9 islands:

21 September: Corvo island debate  
22 September: Flores island debate
23 September: Graciosa island debate
24 September: Santa Maria island debate
25 September: São Jorge island debate
26 September: Faial island debate
27 September: Pico island debate
28 September: Terceira island debate
29 September: São Miguel island debate

After the island by island debates, a series of debates, one general and several one-on-one debates, will be also held:

2 October: Debate between all candidates (PS, PSD, CDS, BE, CDU and PPM)
5 October: CDS vs PS debate
6 October: BE vs CDU debate
7 October: PSD vs PPM debate
8 October: CDS vs PPM debate
9 October: BE vs PS debate
10 October: PSD vs CDU debate
11 October: CDS vs CDU debate
12 October: BE vs PPM debate
13 October: PS vs PSD debate (the debate between the 2 main candidates for the Presidency)
14 October: CDS vs BE debate
15 October: CDU vs PPM debate
16 October: BE vs PSD debate
17 October: PS vs CDU debate
18 October: CDS vs PSD debate
19 October: PS vs PPM debate

A lot of debates, however, this campaign will be much more televised as rallies and normal face to face contact with voters will be less frequent than in normal times.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why are there so many debates lmao

And do we have Azores polling? I would especially like to compare it with the national polls you posted yesterday.

[Mike88]

Why are there so many debates lmao

And do we have Azores polling? I would especially like to compare it with the national polls you posted yesterday.

In Portugal it's quite common to have a lot of debates. The media, but also political parties, like to do one-on-one debates because, especially for the smaller parties, it gives them a big spot in front of the two big ones, PS and PSD. And even in general elections, there's a lot of debates, outside the big 4 networks (RTP, SIC, TVI and CMTV), on radio between head candidates in each district and in smaller regional TV stations. So, there's always a lot of debates.

No polling yet from Azores. We may have one or two polls in October. We'll see. The only poll certain is the RTP exit poll, because they have filled the papers to the election commission. But it's a forgone conclusion. The PS will hold their majority and the PSD will probably hold on to their faithfull 30% of voters. The big doubt is what will happen to the smaller parties as the Azores electoral system is a bit bipolarized between PS and PSD. My hunch is that maybe PAN will win a seat, CDU could be out of the regional parliament and BE surpasses CDS. Don't think CHEGA and IL will win seats. Oh, and of course, PPM will win the Corvo seat.

[Mike88]

Costa met, today, with parties to discuss the government's recovery plan. The response wasn't good:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1308155465629564930

Recovery: Without certainty and without consensus, Recovery Plan does not convince parties

PM António Costa summoned all parties represented in Parliament to discuss and present the government recovery plan for the post Covid economy. The plan was drafted by businessman António Costa Silva, which was invited by the Prime Minister to draw a plan. The plan focus heavily on government response, with the lion share of the funds going to infrastructures, housing and social support. The majority of funds will come from the EU. From left to right the plan didn't pleased no party. On the left, BE says the plan leans heavily on indebtedness and that areas, like the NHS, are a bit downplayed in terms of human resources. CDU says the document is a blank page and doesn't help workers, while PAN says the document is a disappointment as there's no progressive agenda in terms of the environment.

Rightwing parties all criticized the huge concentration of funds to the state and not to businesses. PSD leader Rui Rio said that the overwhelming share of the funds should go to businesses and not the state. He added his party will present an alternative program to the government's one. CDS, CHEGA and IL also heavily criticized the document with CHEGA leader, André Ventura, accusing the government of hurting businesses by only giving 500 million euros to that area and 1,8 billion euros to public administration reforms.

All of this happens as Costa needs to reach, also, an agreement for the 2021 budget. The budget wasn't present in the talks, but PCP has said they will not sign nothing with the PS and PAN accused the Finance minister of not responding to the party. Polling isn't good for Costa currently, as more data from the Aximage poll, today, shows that Costa's government disapproval reached the highest share so far during his second term:

Government's job approval:

48% Approve (-9)
35% Disapprove (+9)
14% Average (+1)
  3% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 September 2020. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Post Covid 19 recovery plan: PS and PSD quarrel on the minimum wage, as no consensus is in sight.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1308896430917062657

Plan for the decade without consensus in sight

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies. The PS, and the PM, were stunned by the PSD stand and accused them of acting like Passos Coelho. Earlier, PSD leader Rui Rio, compared the increase of the minimum wage to the 2009 wages increases done by then PM José Sócrates. Rui Rio also asked the PM if there will be a tight control on the money to avoid corruption. Costa answered saying Mr Rio would have to trust him and his record.

On the left, CDU and BE stressed once again the abstract content of the plan and put more pressure on the government to reach an agreement for the 2021 budget draft. In fact, BE and CDU were not very interested in discussing the post Covid plan and rather shifted attention, like I said above, to the 2021 budget. Costa tried to calm the left parties but was quite vague and didn't respond some of the questions regarding the 2021 budget.

[CumbrianLefty]

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies.

A familiar tune the world over, despite how rarely it actually turns out to be true.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why are there so many debates lmao

And do we have Azores polling? I would especially like to compare it with the national polls you posted yesterday.

In Portugal it's quite common to have a lot of debates. The media, but also political parties, like to do one-on-one debates because, especially for the smaller parties, it gives them a big spot in front of the two big ones, PS and PSD. And even in general elections, there's a lot of debates, outside the big 4 networks (RTP, SIC, TVI and CMTV), on radio between head candidates in each district and in smaller regional TV stations. So, there's always a lot of debates.

No polling yet from Azores. We may have one or two polls in October. We'll see. The only poll certain is the RTP exit poll, because they have filled the papers to the election commission. But it's a forgone conclusion. The PS will hold their majority and the PSD will probably hold on to their faithfull 30% of voters. The big doubt is what will happen to the smaller parties as the Azores electoral system is a bit bipolarized between PS and PSD. My hunch is that maybe PAN will win a seat, CDU could be out of the regional parliament and BE surpasses CDS. Don't think CHEGA and IL will win seats. Oh, and of course, PPM will win the Corvo seat.

What do you mean that the Azores are a bit bipolarized? It seems to me that all Portugal is a bit bipolarized. PS and PSD are by far the most relevant.
Are the smaller parties especially weak out there in the Atlantic?

[Mike88]

PM António Costa went to parliament, yesterday, to ask for proposals and consensus on the post Covid recovery plan/plan for the next decade. What he heard was criticisms to the plan on the right and huge doubts on the left. PSD criticized , once again, the lack of support for businesses in the plan and asked the PM how can they think in rising the national minimum wage if they don't support more the business sector. In the current circumstances, PSD is against a rise of the minimum wage as, according to them, will create more unemployment and bankruptcies.

A familiar tune the world over, despite how rarely it actually turns out to be true.

The argument is, in fact, doubtful. That's why Costa told Rio to look what Passos Coelho said in 2016 about the 2016 NMW increase and what happened. However, the circumstances are different and this recovery plan seems to have been born in a really bad way. The plan was presented as a very ideological one, and Mr Costa e Silva, who drew the plan, said that the "State is the solution and that the market will not save us". This remark may have created a chill on PM Costa spine. Plus, when pundits started reading the plan, they found so many vague stuff and so many priorities that may turn the plan as useless. PSD since the beginning didn't buy the plan, the left says it vague so the discussion about the plan is already turning into a joke. But, this isn't the first plan like this to be drafted in Portugal, at least two plans, similar to this one, in the past were basically thrown into the garbage.

What do you mean that the Azores are a bit bipolarized? It seems to me that all Portugal is a bit bipolarized. PS and PSD are by far the most relevant.
Are the smaller parties especially weak out there in the Atlantic?

Sorry, typo error. I meant to say a bit more bipolarized. In Azores electoral history, no smaller party has ever crossed the 10% mark, and PS and PSD normally get something between 75-85% of the votes combined. And, in 2007, the Azores parliament approved a change in the electoral law in order to create a new compensation constituency to make parliament more proportional and help smaller parties. Nationwide, PS and PSD normally get a 65-70% combined vote share.

Madeira on the other hand, had a mix history. Between 1976 and 1992, Madeira was basically a one party island (PSD always polled well above 60%, and PS polled around 15%), after 1992, Madeira became a bit biloparized, although PSD continued to have results well above 50%, but the PS was able, then, to poll well above 20%. Between 2007 and 2019, Madeira political system suffered a big change with the colapse of the PS and the rise of CDS, PTP and JPP. But, by 2019, Madeira was back again as a bipolarized system with PSD and PS winning a combined 75% of the votes. Also a note, in 2007, Madeira also changed its election rules to help smaller parties, by scrapping constituencies and creating a single constituency.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: A unified rightwing front is proposed as another controversy hits Almada's mayor.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1308835387461316610

Local elections: Right front for local elections? Only CDS accepts

The discussion started with an open letter from the PSD youth leader, Alexandre Poço, that proposed an unified alliance between PSD, CDS and IL for the October 2021 local elections. But the idea isn't very popular in PSD and IL, while CDS likes it but only with the PSD, not IL. In fact. IL, Liberal Initiative, has already rejected the idea saying they want to run solo and coalitions are not on the table. PSD has already said coalitions only with the CDS, not with IL or CHEGA. CDS also just wants coalitions with PSD. Regarding candidates, Paulo Portas is being proposed as a candidate for Lisbon in a PSD/CDS coalition. When asked about it, Rio said that Mr Portas has a lot of good capacities but that nothing is closed about Lisbon.*

*(Running Paulo Portas in Lisbon would be a huge mistake and disaster in a very winnable election, this time, for the right. Just saying)

Also, Almada's mayor, Inês de Medeiros, sister of actress Maria de Medeiros, is again shrouded in controversy:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1308716499603914753

The "wonderful view" of the social housing. Inês de Medeiros causes controversy

Almada's mayor, Inês de Medeiros, created controversy this week by saying, in a live feed of a city hall meeting, that social housing neighborhoods in Almada have a wonderful view of the Tagus river, that people in the north side of the river would like to live with that view and that she herself wouldn't mind living in that neighborhood. This created a big controversy, with residents in the neighborhood accusing the mayor of having no notion of the state of the neighborhood, while left parties criticize her words, while rightwing critics says she's just another "leftwing caviar" politician. This isn't the first time Ms Medeiros is in hot waters: last year, she and her CDU opponent entered in a live feud, on a city hall debate, and traded insults at each other, and in 2009, while she was an MP, she was living in Paris and asked for a travel subsidy, which created a big controversy.

[Mike88]

Azores regional elections: Angra court rejects the PSD main candidate for Terceira, but the party will appeal to the Constitutional Court.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1309133271561834498

PSD appeals to the Constitutional Court for the rejection of the head-list for Terceira, António Ventura - Jornal Açores 9

The Angra do Heroísmo court has rejected the head-list candidate for the PSD in Terceira island, António Ventura, because, according to the court, Mr Ventura is already an MP in Lisbon and cannot run for the Azores parliament. The complaint was presented by CHEGA. The PSD has already said that Mr Ventura candidacy cannot be rejected as there is a precedent. The party announced it will appeal to the Constitutional Court and says that the Court has already ruled the law that the Angra judge used to reject the PSD candidate as unconstitutional and added that there's a precedent as in 1988, the PS choose Carlos César as candidate and he already an MP in Lisbon. A decision is expected in the next few days.

[Mike88]

2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1309533352458936322

Marcelo pressures Rio to make the Budget feasible, if the left fails. "For much less, I made three budgets feasible"

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, today, was asked about the 2021 budget and said that if the left parties, PS, BE and CDU, fail to reach an agreement, the PSD has to step in and help the PS pass next year's budget. Marcelo said a political crisis is unthinkable right now because he cannot dissolve parliament, the pandemic and Portugal's EU presidency to start in January 2021. He continued to pressure Rui Rio saying this option could be a possibility and said he did it while he was PSD leader in the late 90's when he helped pass 3 budgets from then PM António Guterres.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, has already responded to the President's remarks saying he doesn't feel pressured by the President, adding that all the talk of a possible political crisis is coming solely from Costa and that if one happens, the responsibility is all his, and that Costa himself is the one that should feel pressured. He also said the PSD is just a spectator on the 2021 budget draft and that a solution needs to come from the PS, BE and CDU. Rio also reminded Costa's words when he stated that if one day his government was dependent of the PSD, it would be the end of his government.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PSD declares full support for Marcelo's reelection.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1309632911138680832

PSD Political Commission declares support for Marcelo in the presidential elections

With no votes against, and 6 abstentions, the PSD approved in the party's national council, tonight, their full support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa reelection in 2021. Marcelo has yet to announce his reelection, but it's literally a forgone conclusion.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

What is the likelihood that the left-wing parties fail to reach an agreement with PS on the budget and PSD actually needs to step in?
It sounds like something that would destabilize the situation a lot, especially given Rui Rio's remarks. Of course well, I am biased towards Costa/the government/the left-wing to a fault, but I wouldn't like to see it happen.*

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa sounds, ahem, very presidential. Does he have the stellar approval ratings I'm guessing he has?

*indeed I'd say the very healthy polling of the left in Portugal is reason no. 2 why I follow this thread a lot, reason no. 1 being that your posts are pretty engaging.

[Mike88]

2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

What is the likelihood that the left-wing parties fail to reach an agreement with PS on the budget and PSD actually needs to step in?
It sounds like something that would destabilize the situation a lot, especially given Rui Rio's remarks. Of course well, I am biased towards Costa/the government/the left-wing to a fault, but I wouldn't like to see it happen.*

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa sounds, ahem, very presidential. Does he have the stellar approval ratings I'm guessing he has?

*indeed I'd say the very healthy polling of the left in Portugal is reason no. 2 why I follow this thread a lot, reason no. 1 being that your posts are pretty engaging.

Well, Costa, for some unknown reason, has made the whole budget situation an almost disaster with his threats of political crisis and so on. The left parties, particularly BE because CDU is distancing themselves more and more from the PS, want several things in the budget, mainly no more state money for the Novo Banco and more spending on the NHS with nurses, doctors and staff. Negotiations between PS and BE seem stalled, and the media is reporting today that Costa will announce several policies, next week, to "seduce" the left parties like more hiring for the NHS, a new social subsidy and policies related with labour laws. According to the media, Costa has already told Marcelo that after next week, it will be very difficult for the BE, and or CDU, to struck down the budget.

Now, Marcelo is worried and probably thinks Costa is being a bit too optimistic and warned the PSD that they may be needed to prevent "the ship to sink". However, the PSD has something up their sleeve: Costa's remarks about a possible help from the PSD. And Rio seems to be banking on the issue that the sole responsible for this whole tension is solely Costa. It's unlikely, but if all of this ends with Costa needing to talk with the PSD, the "oranges" will probably force some of their policies into the budget, like corporate tax cuts, more support for small businesses, etc. Once again, it's very unlikely because in this scenario Costa would be deeply defeated.

Marcelo has sky high approval ratings, averaging around 70%, and in fact his only real true power is to advice and the more popular you are, the stronger and powerfull that advice will be. However, it's still to be seen if that 70% approval rating can be translated into votes, as Marcelo irritates a lot of PSD voters, and it's unclear how much PS voters will vote for him, even though polls say Marcelo is more popular within the PS than in the PSD.

Thanks for the feedback .

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

2021 budget: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says PSD has to pass the budget if the left parties fail.

What is the likelihood that the left-wing parties fail to reach an agreement with PS on the budget and PSD actually needs to step in?
It sounds like something that would destabilize the situation a lot, especially given Rui Rio's remarks. Of course well, I am biased towards Costa/the government/the left-wing to a fault, but I wouldn't like to see it happen.*

Also, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa sounds, ahem, very presidential. Does he have the stellar approval ratings I'm guessing he has?

*indeed I'd say the very healthy polling of the left in Portugal is reason no. 2 why I follow this thread a lot, reason no. 1 being that your posts are pretty engaging.

Well, Costa, for some unknown reason, has made the whole budget situation an almost disaster with his threats of political crisis and so on. The left parties, particularly BE because CDU is distancing themselves more and more from the PS, want several things in the budget, mainly no more state money for the Novo Banco and more spending on the NHS with nurses, doctors and staff. Negotiations between PS and BE seem stalled, and the media is reporting today that Costa will announce several policies, next week, to "seduce" the left parties like more hiring for the NHS, a new social subsidy and policies related with labour laws. According to the media, Costa has already told Marcelo that after next week, it will be very difficult for the BE, and or CDU, to struck down the budget.

Now, Marcelo is worried and probably thinks Costa is being a bit too optimistic and warned the PSD that they may be needed to prevent "the ship to sink". However, the PSD has something up their sleeve: Costa's remarks about a possible help from the PSD. And Rio seems to be banking on the issue that the sole responsible for this whole tension is solely Costa. It's unlikely, but if all of this ends with Costa needing to talk with the PSD, the "oranges" will probably force some of their policies into the budget, like corporate tax cuts, more support for small businesses, etc. Once again, it's very unlikely because in this scenario Costa would be deeply defeated.

Marcelo has sky high approval ratings, averaging around 70%, and in fact his only real true power is to advice and the more popular you are, the stronger and powerfull that advice will be. However, it's still to be seen if that 70% approval rating can be translated into votes, as Marcelo irritates a lot of PSD voters, and it's unclear how much PS voters will vote for him, even though polls say Marcelo is more popular within the PS than in the PSD.

Thanks for the feedback .

I see. I hope Costa's "seductions" do their work. It sounds like he shot himself in the foot with this situation (and given this kind of openings to Rio) but I guess everything can still work out. I'm counting on O Bloco.

I understand what you say about the President's advice, Italy is a parliamentary Republic too (except our President is elected by the Parliament and not by the people), and unsurprisingly he is also our most popular politician. I have read that Marcelo was a leader of PSD, I assume that his former party's voters are irritated by him because they see him as too close to the current government?

[Mike88]

I see. I hope Costa's "seductions" do their work. It sounds like he shot himself in the foot with this situation (and given this kind of openings to Rio) but I guess everything can still work out. I'm counting on O Bloco.

I understand what you say about the President's advice, Italy is a parliamentary Republic too (except our President is elected by the Parliament and not by the people), and unsurprisingly he is also our most popular politician. I have read that Marcelo was a leader of PSD, I assume that his former party's voters are irritated by him because they see him as too close to the current government?

It's a situation no one is really very comfortable. BE knows that if they refuse to pass the budget, the PS would find a scapegoat to blame. PS is in a difficult spot too as all of this doesn't portrait an image of leadership and stability, and PSD doesn't want to get into talks with the PS because of internal feuds. Rio is accused, since he's leader, of being to close to Costa and this irritates a large part of the PSD. Even though he would gain points by forcing his agenda into a possible budget deal with Costa, he rather prefers to be on the sidelines and let PS and BE deal with the situation, and portrait himself, and the PSD, as the alternative. Not to mention that any approximation between PS and PSD, only helps CHEGA. This is important because of the very crucial election year of 2021, where Rio's leadership will have the ultimate test. CDU doesn't want more associations with the PS as they are collapsing in polling and see that the only way to recover is to be opposition again.

Yes, Marcelo was leader of the PSD between 1996 and 1999 and his leadership was not very memorable, and ended in a very tense way. A curious note, Rui Rio was his secretary-general for a year, or so, after being forced out of office because of membership fees reforms he wanted to persue. And you're absolutely right. Many PSD voters just can't stand that Marcelo helps, over and over again, Costa and are irritated with him. But, curiously, this is quite normal. Mário Soares and Cavaco Silva, for example, pissed off their respective parties by their initial support for the governments at the time: Soares irritated the PS by supporting the then PSD government led by Cavaco Silva; and Cavaco Silva irritated the PSD by supporting José Sócrates in his first term. But, these two also have a similar thing: on the 2nd presidential term, hell broke between the President and the PM. Who knows what will happen during Marcelo's 2nd term.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I see. I hope Costa's "seductions" do their work. It sounds like he shot himself in the foot with this situation (and given this kind of openings to Rio) but I guess everything can still work out. I'm counting on O Bloco.

I understand what you say about the President's advice, Italy is a parliamentary Republic too (except our President is elected by the Parliament and not by the people), and unsurprisingly he is also our most popular politician. I have read that Marcelo was a leader of PSD, I assume that his former party's voters are irritated by him because they see him as too close to the current government?

It's a situation no one is really very comfortable. BE knows that if they refuse to pass the budget, the PS would find a scapegoat to blame. PS is in a difficult spot too as all of this doesn't portrait an image of leadership and stability, and PSD doesn't want to get into talks with the PS because of internal feuds. Rio is accused, since he's leader, of being to close to Costa and this irritates a large part of the PSD. Even though he would gain points by forcing his agenda into a possible budget deal with Costa, he rather prefers to be on the sidelines and let PS and BE deal with the situation, and portrait himself, and the PSD, as the alternative. Not to mention that any approximation between PS and PSD, only helps CHEGA. This is important because of the very crucial election year of 2021, where Rio's leadership will have the ultimate test. CDU doesn't want more associations with the PS as they are collapsing in polling and see that the only way to recover is to be opposition again.

Yes, Marcelo was leader of the PSD between 1996 and 1999 and his leadership was not very memorable, and ended in a very tense way. A curious note, Rui Rio was his secretary-general for a year, or so, after being forced out of office because of membership fees reforms he wanted to persue. And you're absolutely right. Many PSD voters just can't stand that Marcelo helps, over and over again, Costa and are irritated with him. But, curiously, this is quite normal. Mário Soares and Cavaco Silva, for example, pissed off their respective parties by their initial support for the governments at the time: Soares irritated the PS by supporting the then PSD government led by Cavaco Silva; and Cavaco Silva irritated the PSD by supporting José Sócrates in his first term. But, these two also have a similar thing: on the 2nd presidential term, hell broke between the President and the PM. Who knows what will happen during Marcelo's 2nd term.

I understand. So everybody is circlejerking because every party is in a tough spot with the budget. I guess CHEGA is cheering in the background a lot, although I am sure they have their problems (internal and not) as well.

Your anecdotes about Presidents and Prime Ministers are very interesting. If post 2021 Marcelo starts pissing off António Costa we may as well start calling it a tradition (or a curse). But I don't know. I imagine the 2021 election will be the last electoral test of Marcelo's life, so I suppose he will not give a damn if he irritates party X or party Y in his second term.

[Mike88]

I understand. So everybody is circlejerking because every party is in a tough spot with the budget. I guess CHEGA is cheering in the background a lot, although I am sure they have their problems (internal and not) as well.

Your anecdotes about Presidents and Prime Ministers are very interesting. If post 2021 Marcelo starts pissing off António Costa we may as well start calling it a tradition (or a curse). But I don't know. I imagine the 2021 election will be the last electoral test of Marcelo's life, so I suppose he will not give a damn if he irritates party X or party Y in his second term.

Yes, but, on the other side, previous Presidents had also the tendency to help their respective political side on their 2nd term: Mário Soares irritated Cavaco but he started paving the way for the return of the PS to power; Jorge Sampaio 2nd term was marked by 2004 "atomic bomb", when he dissolved Parliament without the consent of the PM, which paved the way to the 2005 landslide PS majority; Cavaco Silva 2nd term started with him trashing Sócrates and paving the way for the PSD 2011 victory. Even Ramalho Eanes, in 1985, "created" a party to contest the 1985 elections, that ultimately hurt deeply the PS. Presidents have much more liberty on their 2nd term, and they feel free to do what they truly want.

About CHEGA internal disputes, they are the result of the huge mix of people from PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, the party now has. CHEGA drained the most rightwing/far-right parts of PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, you can call them the "nutjobs" that for years were part of, mainly, PSD and CDS, and now fight for political places and defend things that they would never had the chance to do in the PSD or CDS.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I understand. So everybody is circlejerking because every party is in a tough spot with the budget. I guess CHEGA is cheering in the background a lot, although I am sure they have their problems (internal and not) as well.

Your anecdotes about Presidents and Prime Ministers are very interesting. If post 2021 Marcelo starts pissing off António Costa we may as well start calling it a tradition (or a curse). But I don't know. I imagine the 2021 election will be the last electoral test of Marcelo's life, so I suppose he will not give a damn if he irritates party X or party Y in his second term.

Yes, but, on the other side, previous Presidents had also the tendency to help their respective political side on their 2nd term: Mário Soares irritated Cavaco but he started paving the way for the return of the PS to power; Jorge Sampaio 2nd term was marked by 2004 "atomic bomb", when he dissolved Parliament without the consent of the PM, which paved the way to the 2005 landslide PS majority; Cavaco Silva 2nd term started with him trashing Sócrates and paving the way for the PSD 2011 victory. Even Ramalho Eanes, in 1985, "created" a party to contest the 1985 elections, that ultimately hurt deeply the PS. Presidents have much more liberty on their 2nd term, and they feel free to do what they truly want.

About CHEGA internal disputes, they are the result of the huge mix of people from PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, the party now has. CHEGA drained the most rightwing/far-right parts of PSD, CDS, PNR and Alliance, you can call them the "nutjobs" that for years were part of, mainly, PSD and CDS, and now fight for political places and defend things that they would never had the chance to do in the PSD or CDS.

Good to know. The President of the Republic in Portugal sounds quite more powerful than his Italian counterpart in fact. I was not expecting this.

CHEGA is... interesting (in a bad way). I wonder if Portuguese media has already started with the* typical obsession for muh iS cHega sTeaLinG worKinG cLasS vOtErs disAppOinTed witH tHe Left that is common everywhere else a "right-wing populist" party exists.

*unwarranted, if as you say CHEGA is pretty much mostly a mix of people previously on the far-right fringe of PSD or CDS.

[Mike88]

Good to know. The President of the Republic in Portugal sounds quite more powerful than his Italian counterpart in fact. I was not expecting this.

CHEGA is... interesting (in a bad way). I wonder if Portuguese media has already started with the* typical obsession for muh iS cHega sTeaLinG worKinG cLasS vOtErs disAppOinTed witH tHe Left that is common everywhere else a "right-wing populist" party exists.

*unwarranted, if as you say CHEGA is pretty much mostly a mix of people previously on the far-right fringe of PSD or CDS.

Presidents in Portugal have no legislative or executive power, but, like I said above, they have the power of influence and the "power of the word", meaning that their words can have a lot of power to impact the government. Other than this, Presidents have some powers: nominate a PM, calling elections, vetoing laws (only 2 consecutive vetoes of the same law, the third is useless), and dismissing the PM and calling for a dissolution of Parliament, the "atomic bomb".

There's a line of thinking that CHEGA may be stealing votes from CDU in the Alentejo region. In fact, many CHEGA's best % points were in the Alentejo region, but the sample from the 2019 elections is still small. We'll see how does the share of the CDU and CHEGA playout in the Presidential elections.