🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Oryxslayer]

^ I'm not sure if you are having trouble with links/images since you are a new user, but the gyazo takes one to a online models results. And as we saw when the PSD drew level with PS for a moment last week, the modeled distribution suggests anything less than a 2% PS lead could be a nail-biter. A popular vote/seat count winner difference would be an interesting result that's for sure.

[Mello]

Each district has a different ballot, as some parties don't run in all districts, but this is the ballot given to voters in Santarém district:

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

[Mello]

^ I'm not sure if you are having trouble with links/images since you are a new user, but the gyazo takes one to a online models results. And as we saw when the PSD drew level with PS for a moment last week, the modeled distribution suggests anything less than a 2% PS lead could be a nail-biter. A popular vote/seat count winner difference would be an interesting result that's for sure.

Yeah, I am blocked. The gyazo wasn't supposed to be there; it's merely a jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/ main page screencap which I added to check if images bypassed the block.

And yeah, PSD voter dispersion should be more efficient if it's close. In the case of a very close election, it can go down to which small party, if any, elects from the 9/10 seat districts like Coimbra, Leiria, Faro, Santarém.

[Mike88]

At the same time the election is happening, the Assembly of the Republic website was hacked. The police is investigating if sensitive info was stolen.

[Mike88]

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

[Farmlands]

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

Are you sure? Fortunately, everyone was dressed normally in both the poll stations I went to today here in Porto, with the disinfectant at the entrance, and I wasn't aware it was supposed to be any other way.

[Mike88]

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

Are you sure? Everyone was dressed normally in both the poll stations I went to today here in Porto, thank goodness, with the disinfectant at the entrance, and I wasn't aware it was supposed to be any other way.

This is what I saw in the TV coverage, some polling workers have the white suits on already, while others don't. Some say that after 6pm, they will put them on as more infected/isolated voters could show up.

[Mike88]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%

If the early vote was hypothetically skewing this count, then the percent increase would be going down, not up. Only other way I could think to explain this beyond increased enthusiasm is the desire to avoid the "covid hours" right before polls close. So it looks like voters are energized.

[Mike88]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

4pm

2022: 45.66% (+7.07%)
2019: 38.59%
2015: 44.38%
2011: 41.98%
2009: 43.30%
2005: 50.90%
2002: 45.87%

If the early vote was hypothetically skewing this count, then the percent increase would be going down, not up. Only other way I could think to explain this beyond increased enthusiasm is the desire to avoid the "covid hours" right before polls close. So it looks like voters are energized.

I believe this 45.66% data includes the overseas voters, so you have around 4,940,000 ballots cast. With Portugal alone, this gives us a turnout of around 53% at 4pm, if again, I'm correct and the overseas voters are included in the registered tally.

[DL]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

[Mike88]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

[Estrella]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

[Mike88]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

Not really, in my opinion. Even before the surge of IL and CHEGA, the PSD always polled well with young voters, while the PS had, and still has, a lot of difficulties in this section of the electorate. BE and PAN also poll well in the young electorate.

The Expresso/SIC poll had these numbers for the 18-24 age voters:

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:

Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

(...)

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%

Maybe, there's a lot of anti-PS vote in the younger base of the electorate, and they tend to vote PSD as it's the only party that can beat the PS, while IL, BE and CHEGA have also a strong showing also.

[Mike88]

6pm, isolated/infected voters can now vote.

Polls close in one hour, at 7pm.

[Mello]

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

It's a ghastly, modern-looking, 'Junta de Freguesia' building, with those elongated windows near the ceiling, like horizontal arrowslits, and artificial lighting. They seem to have removed most furniture/decor, which enhanced that clinical feeling. I understand why they were wearing the suits, but the result was still that amusing ambiance.

[Oryxslayer]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

The subtext here is that it is 'usual' for parties alligned with the left to do well with the youth. But it is also worth remembering that (sometimes once) big Socialist/Labour/SPD-style parties in Europe are often pensioner parties. There are are variety of reasons for this that have been discussed elsewhere, but this feature is why some parties like the PvDA are in seemingly terminal decline and the youth is nested with other parties.

One unique reason why this exists in Portugal though is cause if you are over 60 years old, you are likely to have spent some time of your life before, during, or right after the Revolution, which will forever color an individuals perspective in a way unimaginable to subsequent generations.

[Mike88]

Looking at the TV coverage, polling stations are quite empty now, with very few voters now casting ballots.

[Farmlands]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

The subtext here is that it is 'usual' for parties alligned with the left to do well with the youth. But it is also worth remembering that (sometimes once) big Socialist/Labour/SPD-style parties in Europe are often pensioner parties. There are are variety of reasons for this that have been discussed elsewhere, but this feature is why some parties like the PvDA are in seemingly terminal decline and the youth is nested with other parties.

One unique reason why this exists in Portugal though is cause if you are over 60 years old, you are likely to have spent some time of your life before, during, or right after the Revolution, which will forever color an individuals perspective in a way unimaginable to subsequent generations.

It's pretty common here that whoever senior people first voted for after the Carnation Revolution is the party they've stuck with for all their life, as I can personally attest to. In my grandma's case, she's a convicted egalitarian, so that's the PS.

[Mike88]

4 minutes until the closing of polls in mainland Portugal and Madeira.

[Mike88]

Polls are now closed in mainland Portugal and Madeira. Still open in the Azores.

Turnout projections:

RTP1: 46-51%
SIC: 51-55%
TVI: 56-60%*
CMTV: 50-53%

* I believe it's only for Portugal alone, not counting the overseas.

[Mike88]

There's an anti-Covid restrictions protest in front of the PS headquarters.

Looking at RTP, Costa's car has stopped in a near street to find out go will he enter the hotel where the party will convene this election night.

[buritobr]

So, the omicron didn't reduce the turnout, which was higher than it was in the last pre covid election

[Mike88]

So, the omicron didn't reduce the turnout, which was higher than it was in the last pre covid election

We'll have to wait and see. It points to a reduction, by I remember in 2015 that everyone was talking that turnout increased, but when the ballots were counted, turnout actually dropped.

Let's wait and see.

[Mike88]

20 minutes until the exit polls.

Looking at the mood in the PS and PSD headquarters, things may not be very good for the PSD.