🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

- The last day of the campaign is being marked by the words of Augusto Santos Silva, Foreign minister, that in a TV interview said that the most likely outcome of the elections may be a "gentleman's deal" between PS and PSD in order for either one of them to govern with some stability. Rio has said he's on board with that idea, and is challenging Costa to say the same;

- Also, Ventura decided to make a surreal gesture and, last night, he decided to sing a song to mock Rui Rio. Well, he murdered the song:
https://twitter.com/TobiasUrso/status/1487058457039671299

- Regarding election day, around 1,2 million people are isolated/infected with Covid right now, not all eligible to vote however. A mathematician, Henrique Oliveira, told CNN Portugal that a very low turnout of those isolated/infected would benefit the PS and CDU, as these parties have a very strong base in older voters, while other parties like PSD, BE, IL and CHEGA have a much more younger voter base, that is the one currently being affected by the wave of Covid infections, and could be hurt electorally in this scenario.

[Mike88]

Last poll of the campaign:

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

36.6% PS (-0.1)
32.9% PSD (+1.6)
  5.4% CHEGA (+0.3)
  5.2% CDU (-0.5)
  5.2% IL (+0.9)
  5.1% BE (-1.0)
  1.7% Livre (-0.1)
  1.4% CDS (-0.7)
  1.2% PAN (+0.2)
  5.4% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Poll conducted between 24 and 27 January 2022. Polled 760 voters. MoE of 3.63%.

[Mike88]

Last campaign events of the main parties:

PS - Socialist Party: Costa held the usual walkabout in Lisbon city and ended the campaign with a rally in Porto city;
https://twitter.com/inesjfrodrigues/status/1487142992582426630

PSD - Social Democratic Party: Rio also held the usual walkabout in Lisbon city;
https://twitter.com/hmscarneiro/status/1487158260583092224?cxt=HHwWgMC-7eCjuaMpA...

BE - Left Bloc: BE leader Catarina Martins ended the campaign with a rally in Porto city;
https://twitter.com/BlocoDeEsquerda/status/1487171406454530055?cxt=HHwWjoC5nfmgv...

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition: Jerónimo de Sousa closed the campaign with a rally in Braga city;
https://twitter.com/CDUPCPPEV/status/1487184601785196544?cxt=HHwWgICzjYKhxaMpAAA...

CDS-PP: People's Party: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos closed the campaign with a rally in their headquarters in Lisbon;

PAN - People's-Animals-Nature: Inês Sousa Real ended her campaign in Lisbon city;
https://twitter.com/Partido_PAN/status/1487170486140211200?cxt=HHwWgMCorbDrvqMpA...

CHEGA - Ventura ended his campaign with a walkabout in Lisbon city and a rally in the Lisbon metro area;
https://twitter.com/PartidoCHEGA/status/1487197883388547072?cxt=HHwWgMCy4Y2my6Mp...

IL - Liberal Initiative: The Liberals closed their campaign with a rally in Matosinhos city;
https://twitter.com/LiberalPT/status/1487164508074172417?cxt=HHwWgoCjpbSPvKMpAAA...

L - Livre: Rui Tavares closed his campaign with a social media "marathon";
https://twitter.com/LIVREpt/status/1487192766144991233?cxt=HHwWgsDSqZ_8yKMpAAAA

[Mike88]

Well, it's over. The campaign is now officially closed.

Saturday is reflection day, where polling, political news and campaigning is forbidden.

[MaxQue]

Well, it's over. The campaign is now officially closed.

Saturday is reflection day, where polling, political news and campaigning is forbidden.

Does that mean that if Ukraine is invaded or Macron die, they cannot report it until Sunday?

[Mike88]

Well, it's over. The campaign is now officially closed.

Saturday is reflection day, where polling, political news and campaigning is forbidden.

Does that mean that if Ukraine is invaded or Macron die, they cannot report it until Sunday?

No, no, just political campaign news. Nonetheless, it's a silly thing the whole reflection day. I sure hope that the next Parliament extinguish this day.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo calls people to go out and vote tomorrow and proposes changes in the electoral laws:

In the traditional election day eve message to the people, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa asked voters to go out and vote tomorrow as, according to him, tomorrow's elections are "truly different". The President points that these are the first general elections during a pandemic , the first after a budget rejection and that in play are our urgent improvement in the quality of living, from health to everyday life. The President warned that without strong changes in the country, because if the country doesn't fight poverty and inequality, that were aggravated by the pandemic, it's like "drenching the sands of a desert with millions." Therefore, the President asked for the next government to propose a health emergency law and a full review of the electoral law in order to allow voters to vote at any time and with more options.

[buritobr]

Social Democrat Party is center-right
CDU is left
These Portuguese political parties burn the head of the Germans!

At least for the Brazilians, it's not hard to understang the Social Democrat Party in the center-right

[Libertas Vel Mors]

President Marcelo calls people to go out and vote tomorrow and proposes changes in the electoral laws:

In the traditional election day eve message to the people, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa asked voters to go out and vote tomorrow as, according to him, tomorrow's elections are "truly different". The President points that these are the first general elections during a pandemic , the first after a budget rejection and that in play are our urgent improvement in the quality of living, from health to everyday life. The President warned that without strong changes in the country, because if the country doesn't fight poverty and inequality, that were aggravated by the pandemic, it's like "drenching the sands of a desert with millions." Therefore, the President asked for the next government to propose a health emergency law and a full review of the electoral law in order to allow voters to vote at any time and with more options.

What's the point of a "day of reflection" if political messages are still okay so long as they come from the President?

[Mike88]

What's the point of a "day of reflection" if political messages are still okay so long as they come from the President?

The President speaking during this day is more a "tradition" than anything else, but there's a big discussion about the point of the "day of reflection". The media actually only talked about that today, and how outdated the electoral laws are in Portugal. In fact, people who voted early last Sunday didn't had a "day of reflection", thus creating the debate of what's the point of this day anyway. During the last Parliament, the Liberals (IL) proposed a bill to eliminate the day of reflection but it was rejected due to the bill being proposed close to the 2021 local elections, but the receptivity in the major parties in eliminating this day was positive. So, maybe, just maybe, during the next Parliament there could be another proposal regarding the reflection day.

Social Democrat Party is center-right
CDU is left
These Portuguese political parties burn the head of the Germans!

At least for the Brazilians, it's not hard to understang the Social Democrat Party in the center-right

Parties in Portugal having misleading names is almost a tradition.

[buritobr]

Which Portuguese party has misleading name besides the PSD?

[Mike88]

Which Portuguese party has misleading name besides the PSD?

There is CDS-PP, Democratic Social Center, which is a normal conservative party and not at all centrist. They added the PP in the 90's to its name to make it sound more conservative. There was also the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), which despite it's name being Christian Democratic, it was a far-right party.

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

[Mike88]

Polls opened a few hours ago.

Several party leaders have already voted, however PAN leader Inês Sousa Real has created a minor controversy by voting with a cloth mask, and not with a FFP2 or surgical mask as required by Health authorities.

There will be a turnout update at 1pm. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Each district has a different ballot, as some parties don't run in all districts, but this is the ballot given to voters in Santarém district:

https://twitter.com/maisribatejo/status/1487755008942780420

[Mike88]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

12pm

2022: 23.27% (+4.44%)
2019: 18.83%
2015: 20.65%
2011: 20.01%
2009: 21.29%
2005: 21.93%
2002: 18.97%

Interesting...

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout update: (compared with previous elections at the same hour)

12pm

2022: 23.27% (+4.44%)
2019: 18.83%
2015: 20.65%
2011: 20.01%
2009: 21.29%
2005: 21.93%
2002: 18.97%

Interesting...

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

[Mike88]

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.

[Oryxslayer]

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.

Okay. I'm just wondering if the increased turnout statistic is a mirage caused by the early voting, and if this is the case, then we won't get an idea of the true behavior until later in the day.

[Mike88]

Do we know if that is just today or if the early-in-person stuff is added on?

It's both election day vote and early voting, I believe. At least last year, in the Presidential elections, polling workers, before polls opened, inserted early ballots in ballot boxes. I assume the same happened this time.

Okay. I'm just wondering if the increased turnout statistic is a mirage caused by the early voting, and if this is the case, then we won't get an idea of the true behavior until later in the day.

Yes, we have had elections in the past where, even without early voting, turnout seemed to be growing but by the time of the 5pm update, turnout stabilized or dropped a bit. So, yeah, we'll have to wait until later in the day.

[jaichind]

Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Thanks.  Any link exit polls to be expected? Any live streams where one can see the exit polls at 2PM EST ?

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived.

In Portugal alone, more than 9,299,000 voters are registered to vote. There will be almost 14,000 polling stations across the country that will open at 8am (3am EST) and close at 7pm (2pm EST). Polls in Azores will close one hour later due to time difference. People isolated or infected with Covid are allowed to vote and for these voters, it's recommended to vote in the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm, but there will be no control.

At 8pm, TV networks will release exit polls.

The official results website: https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

Thanks.  Any link exit polls to be expected? Any live streams where one can see the exit polls at 2PM EST ?

Yep, here they are:

RTP1: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1
RTP3: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3
SIC: https://sic.pt/direto/
TVI: https://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI
CNN Portugal: https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/direto

I believe none are geo blocked.

At 7pm (2pm EST) TV networks will give turnout projections, and at 8pm (3pm EST) exit polls will be revealed.

[Mello]

Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

25-44 years old: (28%)

22% PS
20% PSD
  9% IL
  7% CHEGA
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  2% PAN
  1% CDS
29% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

45-64 years old: (35%)

31% PS
30% PSD
  5% CHEGA
  3% BE
  3% IL
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
23% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

65+ years old: (27%)

38% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDU
  2% CHEGA
  2% BE
  2% IL
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
20% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%

Contra recent trends in some Western countries, in Portugal the right-of-center vote is younger, more female and more educated - although age is the only robust gap.  

sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Sondagem-ICS_ISCTE_Janeiro-22_final.pdf

sondagens-ics-ul.iscte-iul.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Quadros_18-a-24-Janeiro-2022.xlsx



By the way, speaking of historical parties slowly dying, age tabs on this and other polls are increasingly ominous to the PCP. I suspect everyone at Soeiro Pereira Gomes today is praying -one would hope not literally but perhaps morale is that low- for either a right-wing majority or a left-wing majority that allows them to be opposition from the left.

Otherwise, their next leader - either Ferreira or Oliveira - will face even bigger headwinds to revive the party, even if they try to "modernize" to become more attractive to younger voters (and don't say silly stuff about North Korea and whatnot). A large part of their voting base is socially conservative rural voters - hence their positions on euthanasia or bullfights, and why they're relatively low-key in other social issues (they probably have the most socially conservative voting bases besides Chega and CDS and mostly because of abortion) - and therefore trying to gain ground with young urban voters becomes, at the very least, arduous; if not flat out insurmountable when they're forced to vote for the budgets and their strategy of strident/principled style of opposition to the government of the day's economic policy sounds sort of hollow. The PCP has vast amounts of money/real estate patrimony, and enough members truly committed to the caus, to hang on for a while but it's not simple to foresee how they turn their fortunes around.

[Mello]

Campaign update:

- The last day of the campaign is being marked by the words of Augusto Santos Silva, Foreign minister, that in a TV interview said that the most likely outcome of the elections may be a "gentleman's deal" between PS and PSD in order for either one of them to govern with some stability. Rio has said he's on board with that idea, and is challenging Costa to say the same;

Such an arrangement will last, *at most*, the necessary time to pass the government program and the budget for what's left of this fiscal year; I then expect a left/right ideological majority to rule for the remaining of the legislature, either via government coalitions, parliamentary agreements or a mix of both.

told CNN Portugal that a very low turnout of those isolated/infected would benefit the PS and CDU, as these parties have a very strong base in older voters, while other parties like PSD, BE, IL and CHEGA have a much more younger voter base, that is the one currently being affected by the wave of Covid infections, and could be hurt electorally in this scenario.

This is a very good point. I was thinking that it'd benefit the opposition parties because polls suggest their voters are marginally more enthusiastic about voting and CDU because their voters are traditionally very assiduous, but the age gap in the epidemic curve certainly changes things. Probably a very residual impact though. 

[Mello]

Traditionally simple (non-weighted) last-week polling averages have been very accurate for general elections. Decimal points eliminated:


PS - 35 - [34-37]
PSD - 33 - [31-34]
Chega - 6 - [5-8]
BE - 6 - [5-7]
CDU - 5 - [5-6]
IL - 5 - [3-5]
PAN - 2 - [1-3]
Livre - 2 - [1-2]
CDS - 2 - [1-2]

---

Those with a preference for more complex modeling (and FAR less proven) can check
jrdaniel.shinyapps.io/paragrafo/

Controlled for pollster quality, sample size and house effect; extrapolated to electoral districts by weighting the polls internal tabs for regions (mind uncertainty and size effect, those are very small subsamples).

gyazo.com/0d7bb00addc4811385566a4a2a945548.png