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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1600 on: October 02, 2021, 01:12:14 PM »

Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election, the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

I don't suppose many bets are being taken regarding the outcome of that one?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1601 on: October 02, 2021, 06:42:56 PM »

Leadership contests on the rightwing:

- CHEGA will hold another leadership election, the 3rd in just one year, because of the Constitutional Court ruling that invalidated every single decision made by CHEGA since the party's congress in September 2020. Ventura has resigned and will run again for the leadership;

I don't suppose many bets are being taken regarding the outcome of that one?

He's going to win, of course. The party is basically himself. However, this time it seems he will face a challenger: Carlos Natal will be a candidate for CHEGA leadership.

Quote
(...)This election will have, however, a novelty: this time, Ventura will have competition, in this case from a former municipal candidate of his own party.

Carlos Natal made news in June because of disagreements with the local and national structures of the party that led to his being removed from his candidacy for the Portimão city council. Now he is back to try his luck in new elections, this time to challenge Ventura for the party leadership.

In his “manifesto”, Carlos Natal presents himself as a businessman and founding activist of the party. And he also presents his reasons for running, which are above all critical of the current management and sums it up as follows: “Mumbles, uncertainties, lack of leadership, letting go, not intervening and allowing situations to get out of hand, are the day to day of the party”.

To these problems that expose the “lack of organization, far worse than that of other parties” of Chega, he adds another: the “authoritarian tics” within the party. And he points out reasons: "The exponential growth, uncontrolled, in some cases, and not very rigorous, was a protest for blockade and discipline measures that have nothing democratic, many of them autocratic and with plenty of authoritarian tics, designed by the new party members, many of them coming directly from other political forces, highly infected with political and partisan vices (…)”, he criticizes.
(...)

We'll see how this unfolds.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1602 on: October 03, 2021, 06:49:29 AM »

- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020, but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.
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« Reply #1603 on: October 04, 2021, 10:04:38 AM »

- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020, but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.

I assume that whatever his opponents (or his team!) say publicly, the surprising results of last week were a huge boost for Rui Rio and made his position much more solid, right? Although even with that I'd still rather be Paulo Rangel than - to pick a totally random name - Carlos Natal. Low bar I know... lol.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1604 on: October 04, 2021, 10:32:44 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2021, 10:36:44 AM by Mike88 »

- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020, but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.

I assume that whatever his opponents (or his team!) say publicly, the surprising results of last week were a huge boost for Rui Rio and made his position much more solid, right? Although even with that I'd still rather be Paulo Rangel than - to pick a totally random name - Carlos Natal. Low bar I know... lol.

Rio's position in the party in stronger now, and that's the problem for him. It could sound strange but, because no one in the party expected the gains across the country, plus the upset in Lisbon, adding that his opposition was even betting on that same "disaster", the surprising results are making basically half of the PSD feel, rightly or wrongly, that something has changed in the "air", and that Rio is an obstacle right now. I remember someone, on election night, I think it was on RTP, don't recall very well, but I remember them saying this: "There are two main losers tonight, the PS and half of the PSD". We'll see what happens, Rio is a bit like Costa, as both are a bit "survivors" in their own way. The PSD is a very tricky party, and even though Rio is stronger now, the strongest in his almost 4 year term as leader, the party may not forgive his indecisive and weak opposition, and elect Rangel. Not to mention the media, which has a very complicated relation with Rio. It will be an interesting race to follow and it could be influenced by the mood of the polls or how the government manages the budget situation, plus other "issues" that rise up almost every week.

About CHEGA, like the saying goes "what is born crooked, rarely straightens", this whole leadership stuff is ridiculous and shows how badly the party runs, plus how chaotic and divided it is.  
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Mike88
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« Reply #1605 on: October 05, 2021, 11:46:41 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2021, 12:01:13 PM by Mike88 »

2021 local election results: Close races.

It's a holiday today here in Portugal, so I've been seeing more clearly the election results and found 30 really close races, out of 308, in which the margin between the two most voted parties was 3% or bellow that. The PS won 17 races with a margin bellow 3%; PSD won 8; Independents won 3 and CDU just 2:

Subtitles: (from lowest % margin to highest)
Municipality - Vote Margin - % share margin - lead over party

PS wins:
Entroncamento - 62 votes; 0.74% lead over PSD
Tavira - 123 votes; 1.02% lead over PSD
Lajes das Flores - 18 votes; 1.18% lead over PSD/CDS
Vila do Bispo - 33 votes; 1.26% lead over Independent
Moura - 94 votes; 1.34% lead over CDU
Sabrosa - 25 votes; 1.54% lead over Independent
Póvoa de Lanhoso - 245 votes; 1.58% lead over PSD
Aljustrel - 89 votes; 1.63% lead over CDU
Montijo - 350 votes; 1.75% lead over PSD/CDS
Resende - 143 votes; 1.92% lead over PSD
Estremoz - 142 votes; 2.13% lead over Independent
Loures - 2,021 votes; 2.47% lead over CDU
Espinho - 438 votes; 2.66% lead over PSD
Castanheira da Pêra - 50 votes; 2.67% lead over PSD/CDS
Aljezur - 78 votes; 2.87% lead over Independent
Belmonte - 106 votes; 2.91% lead over PSD
Bombarral - 186 votes; 2.94% lead over PSD

PSD wins:
Lisbon - 2,294 votes; 0.95% lead over PS/Livre
Alvaiázere - 45 votes; 1.16% lead over PS
Lamego - 198 votes; 1.29% lead over PS
Sardoal - 34 votes; 1.47% lead over PS
Tondela - 244 votes; 1.54% lead over PS
Ponte da Barca - 154 votes; 1.85% lead over PS
Figueira Castelo Rodrigo - 88 votes; 2.22% lead over PS
Mogadouro - 165 votes; 2.39% lead over PS

Independent wins:   
Ílhavo - 300 votes; 1.83% lead over PSD
Figueira da Foz - 619 votes; 2.00% lead over PS
Guarda - 601 votes; 2.54% lead over PSD

CDU wins:
Évora - 273 votes; 1.17% lead over PS
Grândola - 174 votes; 2.64% lead over PS

I think I got them all. Smiley
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Mike88
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« Reply #1606 on: October 07, 2021, 09:16:08 AM »

Leadership elections, on the rightwing, have some schedule dates:

- CHEGA will hold leadership elections on November 6th, and a party congress between 26 and 28 November;

- CDS will hold a leadership congress in the weekend of 27 and 28 November, basically at the same time as CHEGA. It will be a match between incumbent Francisco Rodrigo dos Santos and MEP Nuno Melo;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1607 on: October 08, 2021, 09:36:47 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 09:40:43 AM by Mike88 »

Tension in CDS: "Chicão's" opposition accuses him of running over party rules.


Quote
Internal opposition criticizes CDS leadership for rushing National Council

Several CDS members are criticizing Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, for calling a party congress in very short notice, plus the calling of a party national council meeting for next Sunday. They accuse "Chicão" of running over party rules for rushing for a congress, which hurts internal democracy and, they say, it's only common in parties CDS "doesn't revise". They add that leadership candidates need time to talk and discuss ideas with local party structures and members. The internal opposition against "Chicão" is expected to rally behind MEP Nuno Melo, which will present his run tomorrow, Saturday.

(To be honest, in a race between Chicão and Nuno Melo, like we say here, "let the devil come and choose". IMO.)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1608 on: October 08, 2021, 10:49:28 AM »

Tense moment, yesterday, in Parliament between Costa and the PSD:




One of Rio's deputies, André Coelho Lima, accused Costa of trying to "vitiate" the elections and of "disrespecting democracy" with the use of the European Recovery Plan as a campaign weapon for the Socialists. Costa became furious and lashed out against the PSD MP, accusing him, and the PSD, of being "inept" and of being ignorant about the plan itself.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1609 on: October 08, 2021, 12:45:15 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 12:54:29 PM by Mike88 »

2021 local elections: Parish in Vila Nova de Fôz Coa, Guarda, to have a new elections after two consecutive ties.

A tiny parish in Vila Nova de Fôz Coa, Guarda, Touça parish, is going through a complicated electoral situation. In the elections of 26 September, the PS and PSD tied with 75 votes each. Like a few parishes across the country, a rerun was conducted a week later, on 3 October. The problem? There was another tie: 72-72. Because the law does not foresee another rerun of the 26 September elections, a completely new election will have to be called for the next few months. The PS and PSD have already announced that they will run the same candidates.

Touça has a population of 188 inhabitants (2021 Census), and is controlled by the PSD since 2005.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1610 on: October 08, 2021, 06:20:37 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 06:26:08 PM by Mike88 »

2021 local elections: Another tie, this time confirmed by the Courts in Pernes parish, Santarém.

The Constitutional Court has ruled that the election in Pernes parish, Santarém municipality, was a tie and a rerun has to be held. The counting in this parish was controversial as PS and PSD, both with 345 votes, challenged some invalid ballots that would give the victory to either side. The Court rejected the extra vote the counting committee gave the PSD, but also rejected the PS complaint to count 2 invalid ballots in their favour. On last 26 September, both PS and PSD got 345 votes, CDU got 159 and 28 were blank or invalid.

A rerun could be called for next weekend, 17 October, but this is still to be confirmed. Pernes is a parish in Santarém municipality with a population of 1,245 (2021 Census), and is controlled by the PS since 2013.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1611 on: October 09, 2021, 01:42:46 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2021, 02:05:08 PM by Mike88 »

2022 budget: Tension in cabinet as several ministers "gang up" against Finance Minister João Leão budget plans.


Quote
OE2022. João Leão contested in PS

The 2022 budget draft was approved in a marathon Council of Ministers meeting, that lasted almost 24 hours. But, several media outlets are reporting tensions within cabinet because of Finance minister João Leão budget cuts and plans. Within the PS there are also attacks and criticisms to the minister, one of them came out publicly from Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister, last week. Plus, the flip flop in the wage increases for public employees, from nothing to a 0.9% increase in just 4 days, was badly received by unions and cabinet members. At the same time, meetings with PCP and BE are a bit stuck, but the PS is hoping that long negotiations with the PCP will save the budget. Talks with the BE are also open, but there is a lot of suspicion between PS and BE, currently.

Also, today, former PM and President Cavaco Silva (PSD) wrote an op-ed on Expresso newspaper trashing both the PS and PSD:


Quote
Cavaco Siva asks for "change"

In his opinion piece, Cavaco Silva accuses the PS of "impoverishing" the country, and of imposing a climate where people are afraid of speaking against the government. He also trashed the opposition, his own party, the PSD, accusing them of being "weak" and with no path or alternative to the country. The article seems to be a direct attack to Rui Rio's leadership as the PSD will enter a leadership race in the next few months. Cavaco made a similar attack towards Rio after the 2019 elections, saying the 28% the PSD got in the election "made him saddened" by the state of the party. Nonetheless, Rio was reelected as party leader in January 2020.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1612 on: October 10, 2021, 06:31:20 AM »
« Edited: October 10, 2021, 06:45:10 AM by Mike88 »

2021 local elections: Reruns in two parishes.

Polls open in a Águeda parish, Trofa, Segadães e Lamas, after the vote was postponed because of ballot errors on 26 September.


Quote
Ballot boxes open at Trofa, Segadães and Lamas

The parish of Trofa, Segadães e Lamas, Águeda (Aveiro district) is voting this weekend after errors in the ballots forced the postponement of the vote for 2 weeks. Voters in these parish will vote for all 3 local government branches, but the victory of the PSD candidate for Águeda mayor is not in play as his margin is big enough to not put him in danger. For the parish assembly, there are 4 parties running: CDS, PS, PSD and CDU. Trofa, Segadães e Lamas has a population of 4,486 inhabitants (2021 census), and is controlled by CDS since 2017.

Plus, in Guimarães, voters of Sande Vila Nova e Sande S. Clemente parish are also casting ballots, again, after the results of the 26 September election ended in a tie between PS and PSD.


Quote
Local elections 2021: Rerun of elections in Sande Vila Nova and Sande S. Clemente

Both parties got exactly 893 votes each. There are 3 parties in the ballot: PS, PSD/CDS and CDU. This parish has a population of 3,307 inhabitants (2021 census), and is controlled by the PS since 2013.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1613 on: October 10, 2021, 08:17:33 AM »

2021 local elections: Reruns in two parishes.

There's another rerun in a parish in Guarda, Vela Parish. Here, on 26 September, the Independent movement "For Guarda" (PSD dissidents), tied with the PS with each getting 103 votes. PSD got 45 votes and BE just 12. Vela parish has a population of 424 inhabitants, and is controlled by an Independent since 2005.

Regarding turnout rates, in the Águeda parish, until 12pm, 30% had already cast a ballot. No data from the Guimarães and Guarda parishes. Polls close at 8pm.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1614 on: October 10, 2021, 05:14:31 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2021, 05:21:03 PM by Mike88 »

2021 local elections: Reruns in two parishes.
There's another rerun in a parish in Guarda, Vela Parish.

Election rerun results:

Sande Vila Nova e Sande S. Clemente parish (Guimarães): PSD/CDS gain from PS.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

53.0% PSD/CDS (+17.0)
43.7% PS (-10.7)
  1.9% CDU (-2.2)
  1.4% Blank/Invalid (-4.1)

Trofa, Segadães e Lamas do Vouga parish (Águeda): CDS hold.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

61.5% CDS (+21.5)
15.4% PSD/MPT (+1.8 )
14.6% PS (-0.9)
  4.2% CDU (+0.9)
  4.4% Blank/Invalid (-0.4)

Vela parish (Guarda): PS gain from Independent.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

55.2% PS (new)
40.6% Independent (-29.7)
  2.3% PSD (new)
  0.4% BE (new)
  1.5% Blank/Invalid (-28.2)

Comenda parish (Gavião, Portalegre): CDU gain from PS.

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

50.0% CDU (+9.5)
44.9% PS (-5.2)
  4.2% PSD (-3.0)
  0.8% Blank/Invalid (-1.4)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1615 on: October 11, 2021, 10:36:32 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2021, 10:41:03 AM by Mike88 »

Trainwreck CDS National Council meeting: Strong accusations between leadership and opposition.


Quote
Rodrigues dos Santos and Melo exchange accusations: the group party against the Church Maná party:

Yesterday's CDS national council meeting was expected to be tense and it was exactly that. CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos and his challenger, MEP Nuno Melo, exchanged several accusation going from the CDS being a "Church Maná" party, to the "offended virgins" across the party. The main points were the state of the party and the date of the party's congress. Regarding the state of the party, Rodrigues dos Santos pressed that the election results on the local elections, 2 weeks ago, were very good for CDS and that the party is growing. However, his opposition trashed his arguments saying that the CDS alone got less than 2% of the votes, and that is becoming a "section" of the PSD, adding that they don't want a merge of CDS with PSD. The date of the congress was also a hot topic of debate, as "Chicão's" opposition didn't want the congress on the same weekend of CHEGA's congress. They added that the party leadership was rushing the party congress and that was unacceptable, however, Rodrigues dos Santos brought papers, from past CDS congresses, where the same people currently against "Chicão" also rushed parties congresses in order to get their way. In the end, 64% of the members in the meeting approved the date for the congress Rodrigues dos Santos wanted.

This Thursday, it's the PSD turn to hold their National Council meeting. The party is currently silent, with both Rio and Rangel waiting to see who "shoots" first.
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« Reply #1616 on: October 11, 2021, 12:49:12 PM »

What's the best place to find super old election results down to the Fregusia level? The old CNE site stopped working for me.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1617 on: October 11, 2021, 12:55:55 PM »

What's the best place to find super old election results down to the Fregusia level? The old CNE site stopped working for me.

Yeah, the CNE website is obsolete. They need a complete update, but they don't budget so, alas. But, the Interior ministry website has election results by parish. However, they are in Excel sheets, and can be complicated to read:

https://www.sg.mai.gov.pt/AdministracaoEleitoral/EleicoesReferendos/AssembleiaRepublica/Paginas/default.aspx?FirstOpen=1
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Mike88
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« Reply #1618 on: October 12, 2021, 06:01:36 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 06:34:46 AM by Mike88 »

2022 budget presented by the Government:


Quote
State Budget 2022. The Essentials.

The 2022 budget was delivered to Parliament yesterday evening and presented by the Finance minister this morning. Overall, the main points of the budget are the following:

- GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022;
- Deficit of 3.2% and Public Debt at 122.8% of GDP;
- Unemployment at 6.5%;
- Creation of two new IRS rates, thus totalizing 9 overall, that will cost 375 million euros and benefit 1,5 million families;
- Creation of a Tax Incentive for Recovery to stimulate investments in businesses, and corporate tax deductions for businesses that invest more than 5 million euros;
- Wage increase for Public employees of 0.9%;
- Increase of 10 euros for pensions bellow 658 euros after August 2022;
- Increase of the minimum wage to around 700 euros;
- More 700 million euros in spending for the NHS, totalizing a budget of 13.8 billion for 2022;
- 8.5% increase in spending for the Education system, totalizing a budget of 7.8 billion for 2022;
- Overall public spending to reach 105.8 billion euros in 2022 (the highest ever);
- Taxes on alcohol and tobacco to increase 1%. Taxes on cars also increase 1% and creation of a "Netflix tax" of 4 euros per subscriber. No change in fuel taxes;
- Injection of 990 million euros in TAP airlines;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1619 on: October 12, 2021, 01:15:21 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 05:15:55 PM by Mike88 »

2022 budget reactions: No one is happy.

In the last few hours, parties, business leaders, unions, pundits all say that the budget presented by the government is "little", and the leftwing parties are threatening to vote against if the government doesn't negotiate and accept some of their demands:

- PCP is threatening to vote against, but is willing to negotiate with the government. The bad PCP results in elections since 2016, at the same time the party started supporting the PS budgets, are starting to have a big toll on the party;

- BE says that in its current form, they would vote against the budget. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says the budget is a "disappointment" and a "cold shower". The party wants concessions from the government in order to abstain;

- Parties on the right, PSD, CDS, IL and CHEGA said they are worried by the government's fiscal plans and lack of strategy. IL has already said they will vote against, CDS and PSD are also leaning that way, but will only announce, officially, their vote later;

- Business leaders are also disappointed in the budget, saying it will not be a friendly budget to businesses, and that it could be a lost opportunity. Workers Unions are also disappointed in the budget, with UGT, union close to the PS, calling the budget "unambitious", and CGTP, union close to the PCP, saying the budget doesn't respond to the needs of workers;

- The media is also not talking in a very positive about the budget. From a "more of the same" budget, like the Público newspaper op-ed says, to a budget that doesn't think about the future, in SIC Notícias view. ECO newspaper calls it "the budget of community funds" that will create an even more "nationalized economy", very dependent on the State;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1620 on: October 12, 2021, 05:40:51 PM »

2021 local elections aftermath update:

- Fernando Medina (PS), the defeated mayor of Lisbon, has resigned from his seat as councillor in order to "facilitate" the work of the new administration and help the PS not to be tied to the past. He informed his decision to Lisbon Municipal Assembly by written letter;

- Two election reruns are expected for next Sunday, 17 October: The Parish of Pernes (Santarém) will hold a rerun after the PS and the PSD had the exact same number of votes. The PS is the incumbent in this parish; Also, the parish of Cristelo (Paredes, Porto district) will hod a rerun after another tie between PS and PSD/CDS. In here, the PSD is the incumbent;

- And finally, a weird story from Barcelos: In the parish of Silveiros e Rio Corvo, the new parish administration was sworn in in a... mortuary. The venue was picked by the defeated administration, an Independent, because the building was new, but the choice is being mocked and the new administration, led by the PS, was horrified and tried to change the venue at the last minute but with no success. This situation is already being mocked nationwide;
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« Reply #1621 on: October 13, 2021, 09:18:40 AM »

Ventura was with the leader of Cox and meloni recently possibility on chega joining the ecr?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1622 on: October 13, 2021, 10:06:37 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2021, 11:08:53 AM by Mike88 »

Ventura was with the leader of Cox and meloni recently possibility on chega joining the ecr?

Yeah, he was in that rally in Spain. Curiously, that wasn't reported in any news outlet here in Portugal. Literally no one cared. I only found out about it because social media was full of videos mocking him for literally butchering the Spanish language and for hailing Spain 3 times. xD

Well, CHEGA is currently in the same European party as Le Pen and Salvini's parties are, the ID. CHEGA went to that party because he was closer to Le Pen and Salvini. She even campaign with him in the Presidential elections, last January, and Salvini was even present in one of CHEGA's party congresses during the last year. CHEGA and Vox were actually quite distant and their relation was tense, but, for some unknown reason, CHEGA is now close to Vox and Abascal was even in the party's last rally before the local elections, 2 weeks ago. Maybe the fact that Salvini is falling, as is Le Pen, is the reason Ventura is now becoming closer to both Vox and FdI. Who knows. And I wouldn't rule out, or be surprised, Ventura changing CHEGA's European affiliation to ECR, if that benefits him. He is not a very constant politician.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1623 on: October 13, 2021, 06:26:00 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 10:30:31 AM by Mike88 »

2022 budget draft: The scenario of a political crisis and a snap general election is back in discussion.


Quote
Marcelo warns: rejection of the budget would "very likely" lead to elections

The scenario of a snap general election is back in the headlines after the hardline stance of PCP and BE to the proposed government budget for 2022. Since 2019, the mood is always tense during this period, but the leftwing parties would normally decide to abstain. This started to change last year when BE voted against the budget, and this year the tension is higher because PCP is pressuring the government to make changes or they will also reject the budget. The Communists are being hammered election after election because of their support for the PS government, and last 26 September elections were a wake up call for them: start being tough with the PS or risk facing the same fate as other Communist Parties in Europe. Because of this tension, President Marcelo is already warning that a rejection of the budget would lead to snap elections and the country's life would be suspended for 6 months. Therefore, he's warning parties on the leftwing to think carefully. BE, according to the media, is suspicious of the Communist's tactic and believes this is all bluff and that they're are just trying to gain space to force concessions from the PS.

On the right, the scenario of a possible political crisis is being used by PSD leader Rui Rio to, first, put the blame of a possible crisis on Costa and the leftwing parties and second, "trap" his internal opposition with the argument that during a political crisis the party cannot be having a leadership challenge and must be united to face the Socialists in a possible snap election. The PSD will meet tomorrow evening to discuss the leadership election.

IMO, there will no crisis or snap elections. The major parties are weakened in their own way: PS is still shocked by some losses in the local elections and is showing confusion and nervousness in government affairs; BE and CDU are very shaken by their weak results; the PSD, despite their surprisingly good results, is also divided on what to do because of the ongoing leadership race and their doubts about Rio; CDS is also in a leadership race and a very deep one where the survival of the party is at stake; IL and CHEGA would probably be the only ones who don't have nothing to lose. This, in the end, could all be just "dramatization". We'll see.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1624 on: October 15, 2021, 05:32:12 AM »

Rui Rio defeated in the PSD national council meeting. Leadership elections to be held on 4 December, but Rio is now pondering if he has ground to run:


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PSD Rangel wins first round and advances. Result limits Rio

PSD leader Rui Rio suffered a considerable defeat in the PSD national council meeting yesterday evening. The meeting was held to discuss the leadership race and the ongoing political crisis because of the budget. On Wednesday, Rio advised PSD councillors to postpone the elections because of the possibility of the government collapsing and a snap election be held. He said that the party needs to be united against the PS and the leadership elections should only be discussed after the budget vote in late November. Rio proposed the postponement but it was trashed by his opposition, calling the move "desperate", "cowardly" and proof that he's "stapled" in his office. The mood in the meeting was tense and Rio lost his gamble by more then 60%, and party councillors approved December 4th as election day to select the leader. MEP Paulo Rangel announced his candidacy during the meeting and trashed Rio's leadership and refuted claims he was being disloyal, Rangel was a Rio ally in the past, and that he "campaign against the party" during the local elections.

As the meeting ended, the media reported that PSD members looked quite grim, knowing that their vote against Rio, many of them elected in Rio's lists, may have damaged Rio's leadership for good. Speaking to reporters, Rio said that he was saddened and worried about the party's decision and said, contrary to what Rangel also said, that the PSD is now in the "hands" of the leftwing calendar of negotiations and tensions and that it may not end well for the party. Rio added that this defeat is a data he didn't had and is now pondering if he has enough ground to run again for leadership. He will make a decision in the next few days.
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