🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

PSD presents their Constitutional reform plan:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1413535025027506186

PSD proposes to have 15 fewer MPs and 5-year Parliamentary terms

The PSD unveiled, this afternoon, their Constitutional reform plan to be discussed after the September 26 local elections. PSD leader, Rui Rio, presented the plan he labels "not a revolution, but a reform" and also challenges the PS to come to the negotiation table and discuss this plan. The main proposals are the following:

- Reduction of MPs in Parliament from the current 230 to a number between 181 and 215;
- Increase of the Parliamentary term to 5 years;
- More powers to the President of the Republic like nominating Judges to the Constitutional Court, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal and other agencies;
- Changes in the text of the Constitution to remove all ideological rhetoric and reduction of articles to make it simpler;
- More changes in the text of the Constitution to make it more inclusive;
- Inscribe in the Constitution a "State of Emergency" for future pandemics;

These proposed changes have to be agreed or negotiated with the PS, but the Socialists have little desire in changing the Constitution and, therefore, probably nothing of this will be ever discussed. Plus, it's still to be seen if the PSD will go ahead with this after the local elections as Rio's leadership is on the ballot in the elections. A bad PSD result means that Rio would leave the leadership and this reform plan would go to the trash can, probably.

[Mike88]

Border control reform: Border control reform that reduces the duties of SEF approved by Parliament.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1413478327285784576

Restructuring of SEF generally approved by Parliament

The controversial reform of the Portuguese Border Control Agency (SEF) was approved this morning in Parliament with the votes of the PS and Joacine Katar Moreira. BE and PAN abstained, thus making the reform pass, while PSD, CDU, CDS, CHEGA, IL and MP Cristina Rodrigues voted against, overall a 109-99 vote. The reform basically dismantles the current border agency and many of their duties now go to other branches of the police. Those that remain will be incorporated in a new agency called SEA (Foreigners and Asylum Service). This reform was proposed by minister Eduardo Cabrita after the murder of an Ukrainian immigrant by border control agents in Lisbon airport in 2020. Many accused the minister, and the government, of running away from their responsibilities regarding the state of the Border Control and rushing for a quick reform of the whole border system. Opposition parties accuse the government of a bad reform, while the government defends that the reform will "maximize the effectiveness of action in the area of internal security".

Border Control agents are furious with the government and in the last few months they have been going on strike several times, that are creating chaos in airports across the country, to protest against the government's border control reform.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Since 1976, 31 municipalities have never changed hands. They are:

https://twitter.com/LiberdadeMais/status/1412139464038797316

There are 31 municipalities (10% of the total) that since 1976 (or since its creation later) have never changed their political color. Of these (mostly small municipalities), three stand out with more than 100,000 inhabitants: Odivelas (PS), Santa Maria da Feira (PSD) and Seixal (CDU).

* Odivelas was created in 1998, so it's a relatively new municipality. Therefore, Seixal is the biggest that hasn't change political party since 1976.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper/Porto Canal/other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

40.8% PS (+0.8 )
27.3% PSD (+0.1)
  9.0% CHEGA (+0.6)
  5.2% BE (-0.3)
  5.2% CDU (+0.2)
  2.5% IL (-0.2)
  2.2% CDS (-0.3)
  2.1% PAN (-0.1)
  5.7% Others/Invalid (-0.8 )

Q1: Who you think will win the local elections?

43.1% Other party
42.1% PS
14.8% Undecided

Q2: Who do you think will win the Lisbon city mayoral race?

45.5% Other party
42.0% PS
12.5% Undecided

Q3: Who do you think will win the Porto city mayoral race?

44.0% Other party
42.4% Rui Moreira
13.6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2021. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

This poll is so weird. It doesn't make any sense at all...

[Mike88]

The Benfica investigation now reaches the Government: Pressure mounts for the Government to remove their pick for the Development Bank after the police raided his office.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1414551601273049088

Operation Red Card. Vitor Fernandes and António Ramalho were the target of judicial searches

The arrest of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, reaches the Government. If in the beginning the media was pointing the finger towards Costa and Fernando Medina for their support of Vieira's reelection campaign last year, adding Medina's trainwreck excuse for supporting Vieira, the Government is now facing pressures from the media and opposition parties to drop their nomination for the newly formed Development Bank (BPF). The media is reporting that Vitor Fernandes, the Government's pick for the BPF, had his office raided by the police as it's suspected that as an official in Novo Banco, he helped Luís Filipe Vieira not pay his debts to the bank thus hurting taxpayers as Novo Banco is still funded by a Government supported fund. Mr Fernandes says he's a victim and that he has all the condition to be chairman of the Development Bank, but the Opposition is already asking for his head and are pressuring the Government to drop immediately his nomination. PSD, BE, PAN, IL and CHEGA are saying that the government needs to remove Mr Fernandes nomination at once. There's no reaction yet from the Government nor from the PS.

[Mike88]

Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation poll:

Vote share %:

35% PS
22% PSD
11% CHEGA
  9% BE
23% Others/Invalid (CDU+IL+CDS+PAN)

Other interesting data from this study/poll:

43% say the pandemic has weakened democracy;
42% say it's a good idea that the country should be ruled by someone who is a strong leader and doesn't have to worry about Parliament or elections;
75% approve the Government's handling of the pandemic;
47% believe the virus was fabricated in a lab;
53% say it's more important to prioritize Public Health than jobs or the economy;
86% believe that limitation in freedoms were justified or absolutely justified;

Poll/Study conducted between 16 March and 20 May 2021 to analyse the impact of Covid-19 in the Portuguese society. Surveyed 2,307 voters.

A bit old, but it was only published now. (Will try to find the data from the other parties as well)

[Mike88]

The Benfica investigation now reaches the Government: Pressure mounts for the Government to remove their pick for the Development Bank after the police raided his office.

The Government announces that Vitor Fernandes nomination for the Development Bank in now suspended:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1414644783134519300

Government rejects “for the moment” the election of Vítor Fernandes to the Development Bank

The Government suspended the appointment of Vítor Fernandes as chairman of the Board of Directors of the Development Bank, to avoid "controversy" in the institution, Economy Minister Pedro Siza Vieira said this Monday.

"What seems important to me at this point is to protect the Development Bank from any controversy regarding the suitability of its Board of Directors", he assured, adding that he requested information from the Attorney General's Office (PGR).

[Mike88]

CHEGA-Azores continues to fall apart: Regional leader Carlos Furtado quits from the leadership and Ventura announces that Mr Furtado no longer represents CHEGA.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1415231072091217925

Azores: Carlos Furtado says he is unable to continue leading Chega-Açores

Since the October 2020 election, CHEGA-Azores has been a mess, with deep internal divisions and no clear path on what the party should do. Earlier this year there was even a big feud between the party's leader, Carlos Furtado, and the other CHEGA regional MP, but that ended with Mr Furtado being reelected for another term as leader. Now, the same Carlos Furtado has quit from the leadership saying he's under a "great emotional burden" that is damaging his work as leader. Ventura is said to be furious with this decision and announced that Mr Furtado no longer represents CHEGA, meaning he's basically being expelled from the party. Mr Furtado may continue in the regional parliament as an Independent MP, but Ventura has already asked for a meeting with Azores President José Manuel Bolieiro, to talk about the political situation, criticized the local CHEGA branch of being "too subservience" to the PSD and asked Mr Furtado to resign from his seat.

Could this create some changes in the support for the PSD/CDS/PPM government in the Azores? PSD has been "flirting" with PAN since the beginning and with Carlos Furtado possibly sitting as an Independent, CHEGA could be discarded by the PSD. This scenario is still unlikely, but not impossible. We'll see.

UPDATE: Carlos Furtado has confirmed he will sit in Parliament as an Independent MP and support the current PSD/CDS/PPM government.

[Mike88]

Remember this?:

PM Costa opposes President Marcelo and sends the new social supports to the Constitutional Court:

The PM spoke this afternoon about the ongoing new social supports controversy. The PM said the government decided to send the new social supports to the Constitutional Court with the argument that they clearly violate the law and should not be implemented. Costa added that "the Law is the Law" and that "the Constitution is the supreme law either the government is a minority or a majority." He also says that the President's approval tried to limit the constitutional damages these new social supports do, but that doubts are still present. The PM didn't confront directly, but however indirectly, the President but attacked parties in Parliament saying that "it wasn't their time", adding that their time was in the budget discussion and not now.

Well, the Court has issued their ruling and they have sided with Costa:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1415378279977078798

Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Almada city - PS incumbent, 170,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

34% PS (+3)
33% CDU (+2)
11% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-6)
11% BE (+2)
  5% CHEGA (new)
  3% IL (new)
  3% Others/Invalid (-8)

Poll conducted between 25 June and 10 July 2021. Polled 605 voters in Almada city. MoE of 3.98%.

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Porto city - Independent incumbent, 217,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election results)

45% Rui Moreira (+1)
25% PS (-4)
  8% PSD (-2)
  8% CDU (+2)
  5% BE (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  1% Livre (new)
  1% CHEGA (new)
  5% Others/Invalid (+2)

Poll conducted between 26 June and 10 July 2021. Polled 800 voters in Porto city. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

Political update:

- As gas prices are soaring in Portugal, the government wants to limit profit margins for companies but this is being rebuffed by the opposition and the media:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1415408486012293124

Government limits gas companies margins. Oil companies say that only reduced taxes will lower prices

The price of gas in Portugal has been surging in the last few weeks and months. Filling the pump, fully, could cost more than 100 euros and this is creating a lot of anger in consumers. On Monday, the Energy Regulator, ENSE, said, in a report, that gas prices have been surging in the last few months because gas companies profit margins in the final price have increased dramatically and that's what is pushing the prices up. Immediately after this report was released, the Government announced that they would introduce a bill to reduce profit margins in the cost of gas and stop big increases in the price of gas. However, the media, economists and the Opposition are skeptical of the government's plan. Gas companies say that this bill will be worthless as it would not reduce the final cost that much, but the media is pointing the high level of taxes in gas prices, well above 60% of the price, as the reason the price is so high and some pundits accuse the government of forgeting the big tax burden on prices, and that profit margins only amount to 10% of the price. The opposition, on the other hand, trashes the government for not fulfilling their 2016 promise of reducing fuel taxes if the price of oil went up.

- Also, Parliament approved, yesterday, the controversial bill that will mandate politicians to declare if they are members of any organization like the Freemasonry or Opus Dei. The bill was proposed by the PSD and it was a policy flag by leader Rui Rio, but it was severely trashed by Freemason associations, and in the end it was approved with the votes of all parties except the PS. Freemason associations say that with this bill, basic "liberties and rights" are being attacked.

- And finally, there's another "war" between President/Opposition and the Government brewing:

https://twitter.com/JNegocios/status/1415947615309635584

The Government is preparing for a new legal battle in the Constitutional Court over two diplomas related to the competitions for teachers approved by the Parliament and, in one case, already promulgated by the President of the Republic

The media is reporting, today, that the government is preparing yet another legal battle between them and President Marcelo/Opposition because of two bills regarding teachers hirings. In a showdown that resembles the one in 2019, where the government forced the opposition to drop a bill regarding teachers wages under the threat of Costa's resignation as PM, the President signed a bill, passed by the opposition against the wishes of the government, that forces the government to open hirings of teachers for artistic schools. The other bill, still not signed by Marcelo but he seems ready to sign it also, forces the government to review teachers recruitment regime in Basic Education. The government is furious, once again, and threatens to take these bills to the Court, as they argue that Parliament violated the Constitution by passing bills that are the sole responsibility of the government.

President Marcelo has already reacted by saying he's not worried by the threat from Costa's government and that he's "peacefully doing doctrine" and being consistent with what he has done on other occasions." Marcelo is also being criticized for his reaction to the Courts ruling on social supports, as Marcelo said "he is also happy with the decision of the Court."

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

President Marcelo approval rating:

55% Approve (-15)
18% Disapprove (+8)
25% Average (+8)
  2% Undecided (-1)

PM António Costa approval rating:

41% Approve (-9)
35% Disapprove (+8)
21% Average (+2)
  3% Undecided (-1)

Government's approval rating:

37% Approve (-7)
33% Disapprove (+4)
28% Average (+6)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Opposition's approval rating:

50% Disapprove (+11)
21% Approve (nc)
22% Average (-9)
  7% Undecided (-2)

Q: Should there be a government reshuffle?

81% Yes
19% No

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July 2021. Polled 763 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

2021 local election update:

- PS and Livre will run in a coalition for Lisbon city. The deal was reached in the early hours of this Sunday morning:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1416635411472998400

Lisbon City Hall: PS and Livre compete in a coalition in Lisbon

The PS and Livre have forged a deal to run in a joint coalition in Lisbon city. Rui Tavares, Livre leader, was the party's pick to run for Lisbon mayor but since the beginning he has been negotiating a deal to run with the PS in Lisbon city. The deal was reached this morning and Tavares, if elected as a councillor, will be given the portfolio of Culture, Science, Knowledge and Human Rights. In 2017, Livre has already support the PS in Lisbon, but didn't run candidates with the PS;

- In the PSD, things continue tense. A lot of Court rulings are being given regarding internal fights between local branches and the national leadership. In Aveiro, the Courts sided with Rio against the PSD-Aveiro, but there's another lawsuit against the national PSD in Barcelos, with the local party wanting to drop their own candidate. A ruling is yet to be delivered, however, any decision may not have an impact in the submition of lists but will definitely have an impact in the election results of 26 September;

- CDS still has a lot of internal infighting. In the last few weeks, more high profile and local leaders have been leaving the party, accusing the current leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, of destroying the party and being just a "branch" of the PSD. The most recent "departure" was the former youth leader of CDS, Francisco Mota, which resigned from the leadership team and accusing Chicão of being a "slave" to the PSD;

- Independent candidacies are set to reach another record this year. In 2017, there were 87 Independent candidacies for the mayors across the country. However, some Independents will run under the "umbrella" of minor parties like NC - We, the Citizens which is supporting more than 50 independents;

More updates when available.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

37.6% PS (-1.3)
25.2% PSD (+1.2)
  7.8% BE (-0.2)
  7.7% CHEGA (+0.7)
  5.5% IL (+0.3)
  4.8% CDU (-0.9)
  4.6% PAN (+0.9)
  0.9% CDS (-0.5)
  5.9% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Preferred PM:

45% António Costa (-7)
22% Rui Rio (+7)
28% Neither (+4)
  1% Both (-1)
  4% Undecided (-3)

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July 2021. Polled 763 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.

Ah. This is kind of sad but I guess in the end Costa was vindicated. I wonder if some of the other parties, especially I am thinking of the BE, are using or will use this as an opportunity to bash the Constitutional Court as an unresponsive organism out of touch with the people.

[Mike88]

Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.

Ah. This is kind of sad but I guess in the end Costa was vindicated. I wonder if some of the other parties, especially I am thinking of the BE, are using or will use this as an opportunity to bash the Constitutional Court as an unresponsive organism out of touch with the people.

We now know more info on the Courts ruling. The Court sided with Costa on the argument that Parliament could not approve that because of the budget rules, but the same Court says the government's cost estimation of the social supports is "very doubtful", thus almost saying that if the government wanted, they could have made some arrangements to include it in the budget. At the same time, the government seems that will not stop in giving those social supports.

The reaction from parties left to right, with the exception of the PS, was that the government had a "tantrum" in a highly sensitive subject. President Marcelo's reaction, however, is being considered "over the top" and "weird", because just minutes after the Court ruling was published, he phoned to TV networks to say he was also a winner because the Portuguese were not left unprotected and that it a defeat with a taste of victory.

[Mike88]

Sporting championship celebrations: Controversy continues as the media says minister Cabrita approved the Championship celebrations, as Cabrita refuses any responsibilities.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1416694496499097605

Eduardo Cabrita validated Sporting's celebrations against the wishes of the DGS and PSP.

The controversial and chaotic Sporting Championship victory celebrations that happened more than 2 months ago are back in the news. This time because the long awaited report on what happened that night was released and Minister Eduardo Cabrita is in the center of another controversy. The minister presented the details of the report last Friday and he blamed Sporting CP of not meeting with the police, but also Lisbon city hall for not managing well the situation. He also said he will propose changes in the law that regulates the right to demonstrate in order to avoid confusion. But, the media is reporting that the minister, well, didn't told the whole truth. It's being reported that Mr Cabrita approved the celebrations against the wishes of the police and health authorities, just 22 hours before the demonstrations.

Minister Cabrita's other controversy, surrounding his ministerial car deadly run over of road worker, continues to be news as the police report is in complete secrecy. Visão magazine reports that one month after the deadly accident, the police report is completely secret and any questions to the police are not being answered. The Environment minister is also in a middle of "ministerial car scandal" as he was caught in his official car cruising a complementary route at more than 160 km/h and on a highway at more than 200 km/h. The minister reacted by saying he didn't feel the car was going at that speed, but that he already talked to his chauffeur and it will not happen again. PM Costa was also caught cruising the main highway between Porto and Lisbon in high speed, making a 3 hour trip in less than 2 hours.  

This is known now because TVI and CMTV are basically following or chasing ministerial cars to see how fast they are going. Priceless.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

34.8% PS (+0.2)
23.4% PSD (+1.0)
  9.0% BE (+0.1)
  9.0% CHEGA (-1.1)
  6.7% CDU (+0.7)
  4.5% PAN (-0.7)
  3.1% IL (-3.3)
  2.8% CDS (-0.3)
  0.6% Livre (nc)
  6.1% Others/Invalid (+3.4)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.0 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (new)
2.7 Rui Rio (-0.1)
2.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.2)
2.5 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.1 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 7 and 16 July 2021. Polled 607 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

State of the Nation debate: Opposition accuses the Government of being on the ropes, while Costa responds that the Opposition has nothing to offer.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1417968893302173699

State of the Nation. All opposition on the attack (but left spares Cabrita)

Today was the end of the 2nd Parliamentary Session of the 14th Parliament, and marking this date there was the State of the Nation debate. The debate was marked by the big pressure for a Government reshuffle and Rui Rio's absence from the debate because of the death of a close family relative of his, yesterday. Costa started the debate by announcing that young people between 12 and 17 years old, will be vaccinated until September 19th, and he also added other policies like 26,000 new affordable house for families, 900 million euros of investment for Education, 40 billion euros to transform the economy and society and contain unemployment at around 7%. Costa concluded his opening speech by saying "the country is rising again" after the fight against Covid. The PSD, by the voice of their caucus leader Adão Silva, accused the government of being "worn out" and "tired" because each day there are new messes done by the government. The Social Democrats also said the government forgets businesses and prefers to spend in the State, adding that the PS hates reforms. Costa, and the PS, joked by saying they are more worried by the state of the opposition rather than with the state of the nation, and made comparisons between the PSD management of the bailout and the Socialist's management of the Covid crisis.

On the left, BE accused Costa of not investing in the NHS and of not helping enough those who lost wages during the pandemic. Costa responded by saying the government means it when it wants to invest more in the NHS by hiring doctors and nurses. PCP accused the government of not doing enough to fight against low wages and massive layoffs, saying "it's time to break with right-wing politics", (an old, very old slogan on the PC). Regarding the controversy of the day, about the Sporting celebrations, Costa said he didn't knew about the celebrations approval and that he didn't sign it. PAN asked several questions about climate change, energy poverty and lack of social supports, in which Costa response was that the government is focused on fighting climate change. CHEGA basically said that Costa lives in a fantasy land and that he bows to Europe. The Liberals accused the government of "propaganda" in order to disguise the real state of the nation. Costa responded that he cannot argue with the Liberals.    

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Funchal city - PS incumbent, 104,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %:

42.8% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR (+0.8 ), 6 seats (nc)
38.8% PSD/CDS (-3.2), 5 (nc)
  4.2% CHEGA (nc), 0
  3.6% JPP (+1.6), 0
  2.2% CDU (+1.1), 0
  2.1% IL (-0.4)
  1.6% PTP (+0.6), 0
  4.7% Others/Invalid (-0.5), 0

Poll conducted between 18 and 20 July 2021. Polled 1,525 voters. MoE of 2.50%.

[Mike88]

Timetable for the 2021 local elections was released:

- 2 August: Deadline to submit candidacies;
- 3 August: Drawing of the order of candidacies on the ballot for each municipality and parish;
- 14 August: Deadline to submit changes to the list of candidates;
- 14 to 25 September: Official campaign period;
- 21 to 22 September: Early voting for voters infected with Covid or in Confinement;
- 26 September: Election day. Polls open between 8 am and 8 pm. (In Azores, polls will stay open one more hour due to the time difference.)

Unlike the Presidential and General elections, there will not be early voting for all voters.

[Flyersfan232]

2021 local elections: Since 1976, 31 municipalities have never changed hands. They are:

https://twitter.com/LiberdadeMais/status/1412139464038797316

There are 31 municipalities (10% of the total) that since 1976 (or since its creation later) have never changed their political color. Of these (mostly small municipalities), three stand out with more than 100,000 inhabitants: Odivelas (PS), Santa Maria da Feira (PSD) and Seixal (CDU).

* Odivelas was created in 1998, so it's a relatively new municipality. Therefore, Seixal is the biggest that hasn't change political party since 1976.

Could any of that change this year?

[Mike88]

Could any of that change this year?

Those in the North and Center, PS and PSD, are very unlikely to change in my view. Maybe those more on the South, in the Santarém region, but still unlikely. Those who could actually change are the PCP ones: Seixal could change, Montemor-o-Novo as well. Reguengos could also be in play as there's a really toxic political environment over there. In Lisbon district, Torres Vedras could also change as there is an Independent candidate who could win against the PS. Portimão could be in play a bit, but it's still unlikely to change.

Curiously, recent polling from cities across the country is showing a remarkable stability and the results are almost identical to 2017.

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Lisbon city - PS incumbent; 510,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

42% PS (nc)
31% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-1)
  8% BE (+1)
  6% CDU (-3)
  4% CHEGA (new)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (new)
  4% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 3 and 18 July 2021. Polled 803 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 3.50%.