2020 Oregon Redistricting

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https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, I made this 6-0 map, and I think this is probably legal, I don't think this crosses the Cascades more than once, could be wrong though

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https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, so is this better? This is 5-0-1 with just one split, I think

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Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either

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https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1438685103727722498


Just lol, if true, truly genius move by Tina Kotek

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I want to take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Tina Kotek here.

Her grand bargain immediately put an end to all Republican obstruction. Oregon's legislature had its first normal session in three years, able to freely pass bills for the first time since 2018.

Regardless of what actually happens today, one thing is clear: the Democrats got literally everything they wanted, and in return gave up nothing.

The Oregon Republicans completely disarmed themselves yet have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Savage? absolutely. Scummy? probably. Worth it? definitely. IT'S THE ART OF THE DEAL

(also it's worth noting, referendums will certainly pass in 2022 to disarm the entire GOP obstruction arsenal, they will soon find themselves powerless regardless of the precise outcome of the legislative maps)

Oregon Democrats have absolutely destroyed this state and no are gonna have free reign to further destroy it. Republicans shouldnt have caved

None of it really matters, the Oregon Dems will do whatever they want here anyways. The only relevant question is what our congressional delegation looks like. If the OR GOP is in fact camping in Idaho right now, this will be the first useful thing they've done in the 3.5 years I've lived here. It may also be the last.

What's the endgame here exactly? There has to be a congressional map approved in time for 2022. I assume the SC would draw it if the legislature can't pass one?

The endgame is that the retired judges who would end up drawing the map are probably not going to draw the ridiculous gerrymander the Democrats in the state legislature proposed that, among other things, puts Bend in a Portland seat:



Source: OPB

At the same time, choosing that endgame means giving Progressive Shemia Fagan authority over the Leg lines. She's not gonna draw a nicer map, which means more Republicans could lose their seats than the few currently reapportioned to the Portland region. It's a prisoners dilemma hostage crisis and its the legislators who have to decide if their sacrifices are worth risking a bunch of Dem judges might draw something nicer. 

Yeah this, the real danger for Democrats here was following through on the deal and ending up with mostly a fair map. Now that that is out of the way the options seem to be 5-1 by the legislature or a D court map, likely drawn by consultants who will pair COI in a way that favors Democrats, the end result of that should be 4-2 or 4-1-1, It's really unclear if this is worth the fight for the GOP for one House seat and likely a worse legislative map.

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As we saw earlier in the thread all D seats other than Schrader were Clinton+7 or more, that's probably Safe D, Schrader was around Clinton+3/Biden+7 that's Lean/Likely D territory, and him being a strong incumbent should probably help D chances. Imo this is still a 5-1 map, just a weaker 5-1, 4-1-1 is doing a lot of work here.

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Where does Schrader run?

Likely the competitive seat, also less chance of him getting primaried there.