2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a 5-1 map I drew last summer. Yes, the 6th has a road connection across the mountains. I tend to believe that laws limiting gerrymandering ability, but still leaving the pen in the hands of the legislature, don't really end up inhibiting a desire to gerrymander. This was shown by Florida in 2010, and even Oregon to a limited extent.



Here's a more recent safe 4-2 I drew that actually maintains COIs. Since it's more  recent, it lacks the pre-made breakdown:

1: 53.8/34 Clinton, D+7.6 CPVI
2: 54.2/35.7 Trump, R+10.9
3: 72.1/18.1 Clinton, D+27.9
4: 53.3/34.9 Clinton, D+9.1
5: 52.8/36.4 Clinton, D+6.6
6: 57.7/32.1 Trump, R+13.1



Here's a different 5-1 with more emphasis on COIs, which trades away one of the safe D seats from the first  map. That eastern stretch in CD 5  is a COI itself, though pairing it with a bit of portland is a clear partisan move.

1: 46.8/42.4 Clinton, D+2.3 CPVI
2: 59.7/30.5 Trump, R+15.9
3: 63.3/26.3 Clinton, D+19.1
4: 62.7/25.9 Clinton, D+16.1
5: 52.5/36.6 Clinton, D+6.7
6: 45/43.3 Clinton, R+0.3

The first impression of those here though is correct, Oregon has a lot of choices regarding their six districts. Unless they want to gerrymander, the new seat should favor the GOP, though it could be anywhere from competitive to safe depending on the goals of the Oregon Democrats.

[Oryxslayer]

Something like this of course is the rational option - 4 Safe D 2 Safe R.



But of Course there are plenty of ways to go for 5 dem seats of varying hues.





Note that these are older maps with the 2016 data, but I'm just posting them to get the general shapes out there, so it's fine.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a rather clean 5-1 map born this morning from the idea of a different Portland cut. It can even get more friendlier for Dems by sending Schrader's seat into Portland, but I desired to just show off how much you can still do with just a single cut in Portland. The 4th has to take in more Republican territory than would be preferable for road connections.



OR01: 54/34 Clinton, D+7.6
OR02: 62.5/27.5 Trump, R+18.4
OR03: 59/31 Clinton, D+14.25
OR04: 51/38 Clinton, D+6.75
OR05: 48/40 Clinton, D+2
OR06: 60/30.5 Clinton, D+14.6

[Oryxslayer]

Just posting that I accidentally deleted my response to this post.

x

It was

"Oh I know that probably half the maps in this thread are illegal. I'm just curious what was possible."

[Oryxslayer]

If people are wondering what I mean



Also my bad. No matter what Medford is in the blue district but what matters is if unincorporated rurals or Ashland should be with the  green district.
In the first scenario you get a district that was +0.0 clinton by a few hundred votes
In the second scenario you have a +5.5 Trump district.

There is a lot of arguments over what should be done here but it isn't certain and I feel it just mostly depends on personal partisanship.

I mean why not just head up the valley past Eugene? There's nothing wrong with a map like this, and it wouldn't be outlandish to argue that the urban college-educated population centers and their Burbs should be separated from the rural parts of the west valley. Certainly it could be cleaned up, this map was done in a haste as can be seen in the Jackson cut, but it's an alignment that actually makes sense. It's also a version of the valley that the Dem legislature would very easily pursue if something like 4-1-1 or 5-1 are no longer in the cards.

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

You are thinking about Washington, there is are negotiations in Oregon, especially when the Dems ahve their super-trifecta. Also, quorom denial tactics when it comes to redistricting tend to fail, see Texas 2003.

[Oryxslayer]

State Senate's Proposed Maps.

F I V E - O N E
I
V
E
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O
N
E

[Oryxslayer]

State House's proposed plan (where the multi-party compromise deal was struck)



A more geographically Rational 4-2, with all seats appearing to be safe. Could however trade precincts in Lane around Eugene for Linn between 5 and 4 for safer seats.

[Oryxslayer]

State House's proposed plan (where the multi-party compromise deal was struck)

A more geographically Rational 4-2, with all seats appearing to be safe. Could however trade precincts in Lane around Eugene for Linn between 5 and 4 for safer seats.

That doesn't look 4 2?
Looks 3 2 s and 1 r?

Yes, I think you are right, Eugene is out of 5 and in 4. It looked like both Uni's were paired. Arguably if they pursue this style of map that should be the goal: Uni's in one for a common COI and safe D, give the valley seat Linn and some other rurals for safe R.

[Oryxslayer]

If we lived in a better world with a guarantee that Republicans would not gerrymander Florida, Texas, or Ohio, I would greatly prefer the Plan B map. It's far more aesthetically pleasing.

I mean plan B is still a gerrymander, just a neat one. If that direction were pursued then the correct path would be to put both Unis in one seat for a clear community, and then put the ag counties to Eugene's north in the southern seat for a reliable and commonsense 4-2. I'm sure if the GOP proposed such a plan then they might have been able to the ball rolling with informed observers. But instead they shunned said group with the knowledge that the map voted 3-3 in 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

Maps pass senate and move to House, where the quorum question begins. House to potentially reconvene shortly.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/dirquez/status/1440071345841192967?s=20

https://twitter.com/dirquez/status/1440077040913289221?s=20

Cowabunga it is then.

[Oryxslayer]

So the 5-1 map looks likely?

The GOP is in a damned-if-you-do, damn-if-you-don't scenario. They approve these maps and they keep their ability to hold up legislation through walkouts but lose the new congressional district. If they walk out now then they might get that CD in the courts, but they lose their house influence through a even more partisan map from the progressive SoS. And of course they all have to act as one or else there's a quorum and default to the 5-1 so...

[Oryxslayer]

Someone who was in the chamber has COVID, so all activity is postponed until tomorrow for disinfection.

[Oryxslayer]

I want to take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Tina Kotek here.

Her grand bargain immediately put an end to all Republican obstruction. Oregon's legislature had its first normal session in three years, able to freely pass bills for the first time since 2018.

Regardless of what actually happens today, one thing is clear: the Democrats got literally everything they wanted, and in return gave up nothing.

The Oregon Republicans completely disarmed themselves yet have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Savage? absolutely. Scummy? probably. Worth it? definitely. IT'S THE ART OF THE DEAL

(also it's worth noting, referendums will certainly pass in 2022 to disarm the entire GOP obstruction arsenal, they will soon find themselves powerless regardless of the precise outcome of the legislative maps)

Oregon Democrats have absolutely destroyed this state and no are gonna have free reign to further destroy it. Republicans shouldnt have caved

None of it really matters, the Oregon Dems will do whatever they want here anyways. The only relevant question is what our congressional delegation looks like. If the OR GOP is in fact camping in Idaho right now, this will be the first useful thing they've done in the 3.5 years I've lived here. It may also be the last.

What's the endgame here exactly? There has to be a congressional map approved in time for 2022. I assume the SC would draw it if the legislature can't pass one?

The endgame is that the retired judges who would end up drawing the map are probably not going to draw the ridiculous gerrymander the Democrats in the state legislature proposed that, among other things, puts Bend in a Portland seat:



Source: OPB

At the same time, choosing that endgame means giving Progressive Shemia Fagan authority over the Leg lines. She's not gonna draw a nicer map, which means more Republicans could lose their seats than the few currently reapportioned to the Portland region. It's a prisoners dilemma hostage crisis and its the legislators who have to decide if their sacrifices are worth risking a bunch of Dem judges might draw something nicer. 

[Oryxslayer]

Does Oregon allow mid-decade redistricting? If a sub-optimal congressional map ends up drawn by the courts, couldn't they shore up a solid 5-1 map in time for 2024?

Yes, Oregon allows it. But this is the type of thing not exactly utilized out of custom. Several D-trending states in the south last decade could have done mid-decade to make everything safer, but only GA did and they only changed the lines of I believe three state house districts... incredibly marginally.

[Oryxslayer]

A drafted Compromise map that could be voted on today, despite every indication from the leadership that 5-1 is non-negotiable. Schrader's seat is much less dem here, and also much more unwieldy.

[Oryxslayer]

No quorum at the moment.

[Oryxslayer]

No quorum at the moment.

So the Dem Secretary of State draws an aggressive Dem gerrymander of the legislature and the all Dem state Supreme Court now likely picks a congressional map resembling the first Dem proposal.  I’m not sure what the logic is here for Republicans.

I guess reject the first proposal to see if a second gets any better, before the third gets much worse.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/dirquez/status/1442525142563778566?s=20

I know Texas is getting all the attention, but it looks like the Oregon GOP blinked first. Someone must have shown them what could happen if they let the SoS go wild on the legislative lines.

[Oryxslayer]

The State House has quorum and they're giving speeches about SB-881A,  the congressional map that GAleftist posted.   The Senate already passed this bill and all that's left now is the floor vote on the House and then the Gov's signature.

In those speeches the GOP said they are only here cause they don't want the SoS drawing their lines...so productive hostage taking I guess from the OR Dems.