LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.
In all likelihood, this poll sample is overly (moderate) Republican and as any GE campaign heats up, Bipartiden's favorables and appeal will get shredded, with those voters hunkering down where they always were going to be (with Trump).
After all, Virginia is basically the national capital of "economically conservative and socially liberal" and "I'm a very thoughtful and deliberate swing voter (not)".
not at all. This one oversampled democrats.... D +12% Poll. sorry
Among the 625 respondents, 42% described themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans and 28% as independents.
The fact that it's a D+12 poll where not a single Democrat is leading by more than 4 further illustrates my point; the fact that party ID for this poll in a state like
Virginia produces a result more like what a similar gap would produce in
Louisiana says everything. You're also simplistically (or perhaps conveniently) ignoring the fact that nearly 3 in 10 voters don't fall into either major category of party ID - unless you think third party candidates are going to get 28% of the vote in 2020?
Trump won independents in VA by 5 in 2016. He'd need to win them by more than 2:1 based on this poll for the math to work out (either that, or you need to explain how/why Democrats are losing like 1 in 4 self-identified Democratic voters that they didn't lose in 2016).
Throw. It. In. The. Trash. And throw VA into the Safe Democratic basket while we're at it.
