VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump

[Skill and Chance]

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.

Any poll showing Georgia voting D - "TRUTH!"
Any poll showing something that contradicts my narrative - "JUNK"

Yes, because Trump losing GA (narrowly) is believable, Trump winning VA really isn’t.

I’m a mild-mannered person, but I have ZERO tolerance for the "VA is a swing state" crowd. That said, I’m not going to let this poll raise my blood pressure on New Year's Eve.

It doesn't mean that VA is back to being a swing state, but it does add another datapoint in favor of the recent wave of national polls with a clear Trump PV lead.  This is feeling more and more like 1996 with the parties reversed (Trump obviously can't match Clinton's PV margin because of California, but I wouldn't dismiss the potential for a 51/47ish win if the economy stays this good).

[Skill and Chance]

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

Not really buying that at all.  Odd year elections famously slow down national trends.  How does this make any more sense than saying Kentucky and Louisiana are toss ups in the presidential race based on the 2019 results?