VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump

[Annatar]

Numbers seem to high for Trump, his approval in the 2018 exit polls was 43/57 in VA, how can his favourability be 45-48 in VA unless something drastic has occurred, I'm not saying the poll is wrong, just that Trump's fav/unfav numbers are hard to believe, I don't think he's at 45/48 in VA.

[Annatar]

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

[Annatar]

Biden beating Trump by 4% is consistent with the results of the 2019 senate elections in VA, senate Republicans ran 1.5% ahead of Trump last year, which would equate to a 3.8% margin of defeat, Biden  leads Trump by 4% which is basically the same margin. If Trump v Biden is basically going to be a straight R v D match-up, Trump doing about as well as Senate Republicans did in VA last year makes sense.

Not really buying that at all.  Odd year elections famously slow down national trends.  How does this make any more sense than saying Kentucky and Louisiana are toss ups in the presidential race based on the 2019 results?

The governor's races in both states were pretty unique, take the margin in the LA house elections in 2019 and you get a good idea of where the state is.

[Annatar]

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

That's not accurate, you have to take into account contested seats, in the contested seats the average GOP margin in the senate was 1.5% better than Trump. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191948895926063105

You can also look at the contested seats and compare their margin to 2016 which for the VA Senate in available on Daily Kos and the improvement is 1.5%.

[Annatar]

I'm skeptical of any poll that says Trump is leading in Virginia after the GOP got their asses handed to them there in 2018, and they lost the 2019 State House elections by 9.4%. and the 2019 State Senate elections by 13.4%.

That's not accurate, you have to take into account contested seats, in the contested seats the average GOP margin in the senate was 1.5% better than Trump. https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191948895926063105

You can also look at the contested seats and compare their margin to 2016 which for the VA Senate in available on Daily Kos and the improvement is 1.5%.

Is your suggestion that Trump is going to make marked improvements in NOVA and Richmond suburbs.

Not really, again I think he can do around 1-2% better overall which is not a marked improvement and lose the sate by around 3-4%.