FL-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

Sure, there are some of these voters but

1. They represent at the most 2% of the electorate and when you look at the RCP poll average you will see that Biden leads Trump by 4.5 while Sanders leads him by 2.5, in other words these center right Bidenists are relatively few

2. These voters are largely upper class, middle aged and college educated men, in other words they aren't your average Florida voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

Sure, there are some of these voters but

1. They represent at the most 2% of the electorate and when you look at the RCP poll average you will see that Biden leads Trump by 4.5 while Sanders leads him by 2.5, in other words these center right Bidenists are relatively few

2. These voters are largely upper class, middle aged and college educated men, in other words they aren't your average Florida voters.

If I had to guess from this poll (could not find crosstabs) Hispanics, and more specifically Cubans, are making the difference for Biden.

According to this poll Biden is winning hispanics 61/32 while Sanders is winning them 57/33, so no it doesn't seem to be the answer.

[Frenchrepublican]

Frankly this poll reminds of some 2018 polls which had the FL-Sen very close (Nelson and Scott basically tied) but which had at the same DeSantis losing by a substantial margin. The thing is that the FL electorate is very inflexible and fairly inelastic, it’s one more reason to doubt of the results of this poll.

[Frenchrepublican]

Anyways,
it's great to see Mason-Dixon starting polling Battleground States again. They went completely into hiding after 2012.

M/D did very well in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana this year.

Good, that we don't have to rely on those crappy University Polls like Quinnipiac and CNN/SSrS.

I agree their polls were pretty accurate concerning the 2019 Gov races but it’s very hard to see how their VA and FL polls can be true at the same time

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

You have probably a point here

My opinion as of now would be this :
Biden vs Trump : Trump wins by 2 (50.5/48.5 for Trump).
Buttigieg vs Trump : Trump wins by 2.5 (50.5/48 for Trump).
Warren vs Trump : Trump wins by 3 (51/48 for Trump).
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins by 4 (51/47 for Trump).

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

You have probably a point here

Why do you think Dems will lose FL? The state voted for Obama-Biden 2x and Gwen Graham would have won, because she was a moderate,  not a Gillum Liberal. The state is Latino, Puerto Ricans looking for statehood; as a result,  that's why they have a minimum wage Ballot initiative 

What is this non sense ?

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

I can confirm that I’d vote Biden and probably Buttigieg but would probably vote Trump over the others. It mostly comes down to agreeing more with Democrats (and thinking Trump is awful), but I also work and make pretty good money in the healthcare industry, and M4A would probably put myself and a lot of other people completely out of work. So that’s just not something I’m going to mess with, even if I generally like Sanders and Warren as people.

So ya I think this poll is very reasonable and probably is best for Buttigieg if you’re reading deeply into it - he is primarily behind Biden because of name rec still, particularly among minority voters. In a GE I’ll bet that he would outperform Biden, but Biden will still do fine.

Yeah, but people like you aren't numerous. You hate Trump, you don't want to vote for him, but you would be open to voting for him if the democratic candidate runs on a Medicare for all platform ? 98% of persons who despise Trump will vote against him no matter who is his opponent, maybe you're part of the 4% of true swing voters but you're a exception.

[Frenchrepublican]

Everyone, says it's a Cuban state, but most Latinos are Puerto Ricans

What's the link between this ''The state is Latino, Puerto Ricans looking for statehood;'' and this  ''as a result,  that's why they have a minimum wage Ballot initiative'' ? 

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

There are more of these people than you may think.  Heck, you're looking at one (or, at least, potentially one... I never really decide who I'm voting for until the day before, sometimes day of).

I think your perspective may be skewed since these types of voters are probably among the least likely to tweet, write something in comments sections, etc.  Naturally those that feel strongest about Trump are going to be those you're always hearing from.  No offense but I think Atlas has probably had a role in skewing your perspective.

I suspect most of your disbelief stems from the fact that you have little to no day-to-day, in person experiences of living in a competitive swing district (as I do).  Many of my friends, peers and co-workers in my industry are moderates, independents, or even apolitical, and so on.  Many of us, including myself, are older, have houses, families etc.  No one (as far as I know) seems to be involved in online political conversation (this forum is actually the only place I ever talk about politics at all).  90%+ of our discussions have to do with stuff like football or mundane life things.  I can count the time politics has come up in a conversation on one hand, and on several of those occasions, a "I'd vote for Biden, but possibly Trump over the other Dems" opinion was expressed.

Now that is all anecdotal, so perhaps borderline useless- but let me put it this way.  You say that you don't think these voters are more than 2% of the electorate, which is probably more-or-less accurate... the number of actual persuadable voters these days has to be, what, <5% of the electorate?  I would not think that an over-representation of these voters in a state like FL is inconsistent with that nor would it be particularly out-landish.. in fact, I would generally expect that in a state that votes like FL.  Consider also that it's possible this type of voter is more likely to be older, which is also consistent with FL's demographics.

From what I have read and from what I know, these voters are generally college educated men with a relatively high income, Florida doesn't have a lot of these voters, white voters in FL are generally less educated than the average white people and are not particulary well off either. I think the kind of voter we are talking about are overrepresented in places like the Dallas/Fort-Worth area, the Phoenix area and other metro areas with a large professional class, Florida is a close state (you probably already know this ) but it's also a very inelastic state, either you're a conservative white person or a older Cuban voter and you're going to vote for Trump or you're a non white person or maybe a white liberal (usually jewish) person and you're not going to vote for gim.