|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 04, 2020, 07:32:58 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  FL-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: FL-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump  (Read 1610 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,720
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 31, 2019, 08:15:47 am »

47-45 Biden/Trump
49-45 Trump/Buttigieg
49-44 Trump/Sanders
51-42 Trump/Warren

Favourables:

45-41 Biden
46-47 Trump
32-38 Buttigieg
37-48 Warren
35-52 Sanders

Quote
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from December 11 through December 16, 2019. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were interviewed live by telephone statewide.

https://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=0000016f-586c-df23-a57f-5eeea2dc0001
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,720
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2019, 08:17:57 am »

Buttigieg has the best White numbers against Trump of any Democrat, even better than Biden.

Trump+24 against Pete
Trump+25 against Joe
Trump+33 against Bernie
Trump+37 against Liz
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 535
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2019, 08:30:02 am »

Poll seems to be in line with what we've seen from other polls, consistent with a 5% Biden lead nationally on a uniform swing, state polls in AZ and WI suggest a 3.5 - 4% Biden lead nationally. Overall good numbers for Biden but not great.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2019, 08:33:07 am »

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,936


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2019, 08:41:32 am »

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 535
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2019, 08:42:02 am »

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

One thing I've noticed is in some polls there's very little difference between how different dems do vs Trump like CNN where the difference is only a few points and than there are polls like IBD where the difference is huge, double digit spreads. I guess it must be down to how different pollsters ask the question about H2H.
Logged
UWS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,212


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2019, 08:43:21 am »

Trump has the highest favorability among any 2020 candidate. Good thing for him for the general election.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,720
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2019, 08:44:31 am »

Trump has the highest favorability among any 2020 candidate. Good thing for him for the general election.

No, Biden is at +4, Trump has -1.
Logged
TML
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,491


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2019, 08:49:04 am »

Take these polls with a grain of salt, since the majority of statewide elections in FL this decade have been decided by less than 2 points.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2019, 08:51:07 am »

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

Sure, there are some of these voters but

1. They represent at the most 2% of the electorate and when you look at the RCP poll average you will see that Biden leads Trump by 4.5 while Sanders leads him by 2.5, in other words these center right Bidenists are relatively few

2. These voters are largely upper class, middle aged and college educated men, in other words they aren't your average Florida voters.
Logged
#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,000
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2019, 08:54:03 am »

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

Sure, there are some of these voters but

1. They represent at the most 2% of the electorate and when you look at the RCP poll average you will see that Biden leads Trump by 4.5 while Sanders leads him by 2.5, in other words these center right Bidenists are relatively few

2. These voters are largely upper class, middle aged and college educated men, in other words they aren't your average Florida voters.
If I had to guess from this poll (could not find crosstabs) Hispanics, and more specifically Cubans, are making the difference for Biden.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2019, 08:57:10 am »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 09:42:24 am by Frenchrepublican »

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

Sure, there are some of these voters but

1. They represent at the most 2% of the electorate and when you look at the RCP poll average you will see that Biden leads Trump by 4.5 while Sanders leads him by 2.5, in other words these center right Bidenists are relatively few

2. These voters are largely upper class, middle aged and college educated men, in other words they aren't your average Florida voters.
If I had to guess from this poll (could not find crosstabs) Hispanics, and more specifically Cubans, are making the difference for Biden.

According to this poll Biden is winning hispanics 61/32 while Sanders is winning them 57/33, so no it doesn't seem to be the answer.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2019, 09:39:41 am »

Why shouldn't we nominate Biden? He is clearly the most electable.
Logged
#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,000
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2019, 09:40:29 am »

Why shouldn't we nominate Biden? He is clearly the most electable.
You clearly seem to think there is someone better lol
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,892
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.35, S: 2.87


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 31, 2019, 10:00:02 am »

Why shouldn't we nominate Biden? He is clearly the most electable.
wait till Trump starts attacking him politically.  Joe is a weak candidate .
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2019, 10:01:15 am »

Why shouldn't we nominate Biden? He is clearly the most electable.
wait till Trump starts attacking him politically.  Joe is a weak candidate .

Biden is the Democrat's Trump. #TeflonBiden
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2019, 10:15:03 am »

Frankly this poll reminds of some 2018 polls which had the FL-Sen very close (Nelson and Scott basically tied) but which had at the same DeSantis losing by a substantial margin. The thing is that the FL electorate is very inflexible and fairly inelastic, itís one more reason to doubt of the results of this poll.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,001
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2019, 10:40:02 am »

You know what? If Biden wins the election, I really hope he wins FL as well because it should put an end to the asinine "Florida is Lean/Likely/Titanium Tilt R" takes. Since FL always counts very quickly, the reactions when Biden is still leading with 95% counted would be priceless.

Also, the fact that Biden is leading Trump in a poll which shows him beating Sanders/Buttigieg/Warren by a lot (the Warren vs. Trump result in particular is hard to believe) should be cause for concern for the GOP.
Logged
2016
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,504
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 31, 2019, 10:45:33 am »

Anyways,
it's great to see Mason-Dixon starting polling Battleground States again. They went completely into hiding after 2012.

M/D did very well in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana this year.

Good, that we don't have to rely on those crappy University Polls like Quinnipiac and CNN/SSrS.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,311


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2019, 11:03:13 am »

Anyways,
it's great to see Mason-Dixon starting polling Battleground States again. They went completely into hiding after 2012.

M/D did very well in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana this year.

Good, that we don't have to rely on those crappy University Polls like Quinnipiac and CNN/SSrS.

I agree their polls were pretty accurate concerning the 2019 Gov races but itís very hard to see how their VA and FL polls can be true at the same time
Logged
2016
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,504
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2019, 11:07:24 am »

Also,
it's time to expose Tender Branson a bit here. He gives only Trump vs Democrats Numbers and completely leaves out that Florida's current Governor Ron DeSantis has a 65/26 Job Approval Rating according to the same Poll.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/314119-ron-desantis-enjoys-high-approval-rating-as-he-closes-out-2018

Trumps Job Approval in Florida is 47/50 YET on the Impeachment 46% Support it, 50 % Oppose it
https://www.local10.com/news/politics/2019/12/18/half-of-florida-voters-oppose-impeachment-of-trump-new-mason-dixon-poll-shows/

Trumps JA Rating according to CNN Exit Polls in Florida during the 2018 Midterms was 51/48 so not a gigantic change here.

If Trump wins FL next November he may have to thank Governor DeSantis for it.

Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,282
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2019, 11:09:01 am »

These polls are in direct line with the Fox polls that consistently show Biden 5 points ahead of Trump, so I am not surprised by these results.
Logged
2016
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,504
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2019, 11:11:10 am »

Anyways,
it's great to see Mason-Dixon starting polling Battleground States again. They went completely into hiding after 2012.

M/D did very well in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana this year.

Good, that we don't have to rely on those crappy University Polls like Quinnipiac and CNN/SSrS.

I agree their polls were pretty accurate concerning the 2019 Gov races but itís very hard to see how their VA and FL polls can be true at the same time

In regards to 2018 I think Trump made a massive Difference and pulled DeSantis over the Line. I expect Governor DeSantis to return the favour to Trump in 2020.
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2019, 11:17:04 am »

Anyways,
it's great to see Mason-Dixon starting polling Battleground States again. They went completely into hiding after 2012.

M/D did very well in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana this year.

Good, that we don't have to rely on those crappy University Polls like Quinnipiac and CNN/SSrS.

I agree their polls were pretty accurate concerning the 2019 Gov races but itís very hard to see how their VA and FL polls can be true at the same time

In regards to 2018 I think Trump made a massive Difference and pulled DeSantis over the Line. I expect Governor DeSantis to return the favour to Trump in 2020.

People certainly like DeSantis here, but they like him because he keeps his head down and doesn't do anything controversial. The perfect equation to stay popular in a heavily divided state. He isnt some Florida institution that people look to for political guidance.

DeSantis will almost certainly endorse Trump, and probably do multiple rallies with him. But it wont make any difference.
Logged
Southern Delegate Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,298
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.88, S: -1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2019, 11:17:32 am »


Biden will also lose here.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines