2020 Redistricting Master Thread

[jimrtex]

Is there a website where I can see the whole list of projected seats from reapportionment?

Like, what seat 1-435 and the next hypothetical seats are?

Does the census release projections for the apportionment population of each state (different from normal population count bc of overseas voters etc.)?

Because if they do, I slapped together a super barebones Python program a little while ago that can generate those results if you want.

They don't make estimates of the overseas population. The overseas population only includes federally-affiliated persons, mostly military along with dependents. 96% are military or their dependents (39% military, 57% dependents). The rest are mostly Department of State and Peace Corps.

Because they are mostly military their is a systematic bias towards the South. The Top 20 states in 2010 were:

TX 122
FL 99
CA 88
NY 43
GA 40
VA 37
IL 34
PA 33
OH 32
NC 30
TN 29
WA 29
MI 28
AL 23
MO 23
SC 21
LA 21
AZ 20
IN 18
OR 18

In the past Muon2 has made an adjustment for the overseas, I have not. The number of overseas military in 2020 may be about 1/2 of what it was in 2010. The ratio of dependents to military may be higher due to top locations of Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy permitting dependents.

[jimrtex]

Does someone have an updated list of the congressional districts on the edge of being cut?

I keep hearing that Alabama's 7th is as good as gone, but on some map projections I find the state remains unchanged.

There are eight states in contention for the final four seats. Four will get a seat and four will not.

By current projections based on current estimates, Alabama would be 436th.

Imagine a marathon where a runner wants to finish in the top 435. You can look at previous years results and see that a time of 2:35:27 was good enough for 435th.

Ignoring differences in the weather conditions and the field, will 2:35:27 be good enough for 435th this year? It depends on the other runners. The runner from New York appears to be in great distress, and from time-to-time stops and puts his hands on his knees. The California runner was running at a good pace earlier in the race, but appears to be cramping, his stride imbalanced. Montana and Minnesota and Alabama are running at a fairly steady pace, but none are flashy runners. Montana had been close to 435th in the past, will this be their year? And Minnesota just barely hung on last year. Florida and Texas have a strong finish, will it be enough to get into the top 435?