Why does no one here seem to think Harold Ford can win Tennessee?

[Jacobtm]

I'm a new member here; shalom.

As I looked around the '06 predictions maps, nearly EVERY single one seemed to have Tn. one shade or another of blue. That really surprised me.

I realize Ford doesn't have an unbeatable lead, but he's within a few points of  every possible Republican nominee.

Obviously, the fact that it's just a close election doesn't mean Ford will win. However, I've seen for on TV alot, and he's just so impressed me that I have this feeling that the polls now don't represent what will actually happen. It's still a long way until election day, and the vast majority of the people haven't started paying much attention to their Senate races yet. So right now, it seems that people will decide who they'll vote for based simply on party affiliation and name recognition. As the seat is open, both the Democrat and Republican will have to work to get their names recognized.

But Ford has just so impressed me that I can't possibly imagine him losing.

Plus, those polls are always of "likely voters," namely, people who showed up to vote the last time. I should expect that Ford (being black) will attract a significant amount of black voters who don't tend to vote in Tn. elections. Furthermore, with people not particularly thrilled with the Bush administration and Republicans in general, it seems that people who might've been motivated by Bill Frist in the past might simply stay home, while people looking for a good alternative and hadn't seen one in the past will be drawn to Ford.

So why is it that no one else seems to agree with me that Ford has potential?

[Galactic Overlord]

Hi Jacobtm, and welcome to the forum.

First off, Ford is certainly an attractive candidate, and it's not that he has absolutely no chance, but his candidacy is hampered by factors that are almost insurmountable.  First off, even if Ford drives up a big turnout among blacks, you're basically talking about just the city of Memphis (which is his congressional district anyway) and there's a whole lot more of the state to go. The Nashville suburbs and the eastern part of the state are pretty much a lock for Republicans, so Ford likely will have to tap into white Democrats that live in the central and northwestern parts of the state.  Problem is, many of them are also conservative, or simply won't vote for a black candidate.  Ford also has the general problem of being an urban politician in a state that has much more rural than urban country.

Some will argue that Ford is a moderate.  Problem is, he may be moderate in comparison to other Democrats, but his interest group rankings still put him at the most or the second most (depending on the year) liberal member of Tennessee's congressional delegation.  Ford also has some family problems, his uncle, a former state senator, has run into some trouble with the law, and news of this only reinforces the "urban politician" image that many Tennessans will associate with Ford the younger.

The bottom line is that the Republican candidate would have to flame out in a big way to even the playing field.  Even if Bush is still weak in 2006, the state's demographics and idealogical bent may still be too much for Ford to overcome.

[Jake]

Ford is black, a Democrat, and from Memphis, and is running statewide in Tennessee. That's pretty much it.

[Jacobtm]

In '04, Tn. went for Bush 57-43, with Bush getting 1,384,00 to Kerry's 1,036,00.

In '02, Tn. went Republican 54-44, with Senator Alexander(R.) recieving 888,000 votes to Democrat Clement's 726,000 votes.

It seems that this year, there will be three main factors affecting turnout.

1.) Growing dissatisfaction with the war will hurt Republican turnout and boost Democratic turnout.

2.) The Abramoff scandal will simmilarly hurt Republican turnout and boost Democratic turnout.

3.) The whole idea that Republicans are vulnerable this year will both boost Democratic turnout, as well as fund-raising potential. This would give Democratic candidates, especially ones in close races like Ford, an extra boost so far as campaign money goes.

With these three things going on, I don't see how it would be so hard for Ford to bridge the gap of 150k or so votes. With Republicans dissapointed in how things are going and Democrats emboldened by the woes of Republicans, it should seem that Ford actually has the edge here.

The numbers just don't seem to be that tough to me...

[7,052,770]

I think he has a decent shot.  TN is red on my map!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Jacob,

Welcome to the forum.

I often caution my fellow Republicans not to take this race for granted.  Ford Jr. is one of the stronger Democratic candidates in Tennessee, but he has serious vulnerabilities.

Lets examine the candidates backgrounds:

REPUBLICAN:

Ed Bryant is a former JAG officer, instructor at West Point, United States Attorney for the Western District of Tennessee, and member of Congress from 1995-2003.  He went to public schools and grew up in the heart of West Tennessee.  He's conservative, but rather mainstream for the state.

Van Hilleary lost the 2002 Governors race by a very slim margin against the Democrats strongest possible candidate. He served in the first Gulf War, flying 24 missions as navigator on a C-130.  He was elected to Congress in 1994, defeating a Democrat in a marginally Democratic district.  He did VERY well, relatively, in rural Democratic areas of the state in his Gubenatorial race but lost primarily due to Bredesen's pick-ups in urban Republican areas.

Bob Corker was perhaps the state's most popular urban Mayor and led Chattanooga from decay to revitalization.  He is a smart businessman and has incredible fundraising abilities.


DEMOCRAT:

Harold Ford Jr. inherited his Congressional seat from his controversial daddy, grew up in DC, and has yet to pass the Bar exam.  He's a recent convert to moderation, having compiled a liberal voting record prior to his Senate ambitions.

And then there is Rosalind Kurita, a State Senator who is probably just in the race in case Ford drops out, which is a real posibility.

-------------------

When you say "Harold Ford", there are still a lot of people in this state who remember Jr.'s father - a deeply hateful and prejudiced man who called his own constituients "East Memphis (white) devils".  His uncle has a habit of pulling guns on people and is now facing bribery charges in the Tennessee Waltz scandal.  Even in Memphis, people are tired of the Ford family.  As I have stated in previous threads, Ophelia Ford tied the Republican candidate in the most Democratic district in the state and the home of the Ford family political base.  The election fraud story is being carried on TV and newspapers across the state and discussed heaviliy on talk radio outlets.  It may not be an issue by November, but Ophelia's and John's faces have been seen more in recent months than Jr's.

It may not be fair to hold Jr. responsible for the sins of his family -- but I kinda doubt he would be a serious contender fo the U.S. Senate today if it weren't for his entrenched political family.  Its gotten so bad that he's even had to emphasize at campaign stops that he isn't responsible for what his familiy members do.

Ford's unfavorables are higher than his favorables, even though he has the highest name recognition of any of the candidates.

Ford can put together a strong campaign - but consider the fundraising aspect for a moment.  Ford has raised 42% of his contributions from OUT OF STATE!!!  Contrast that to Bob Corker, who has raised slightly more money than Ford, who has raised 95% of his contributions from in-state.

Ouch.

Ford isn't toast, but he has a ton of vulnerabilities that will be harped on by the GOP.  I think he can break through 43%, but he'll have one heck of a time getting past 45%.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

2.) The Abramoff scandal will simmilarly hurt Republican turnout and boost Democratic turnout.

3.) The whole idea that Republicans are vulnerable this year will both boost Democratic turnout, as well as fund-raising potential. This would give Democratic candidates, especially ones in close races like Ford, an extra boost so far as campaign money goes.

Ford received $4000 from associates of Jack Abramoff.  I doubt he'll be raising that issue in this campaign.

Ford trails Corker in fundraising, and as I said in the previous post has received almost half of his contributions from outside Tennessee.

[Flying Dog]

Ughhh, I just found out that my congressman (D) Dale Kildee accepted $11,000 from Abramoff and is not giving it back or donating it.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I think he can win...easier than in Ohio, actually.
But I've found out he's more of a libertarian than a Democrat, so we'll see.  He does seem to be hawkish, which WILL be a plus for any Democrat in 2006(.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ughhh, I just found out that my congressman (D) Dale Kildee accepted $11,000 from Abramoff and is not giving it back or donating it.

No Democrat took money from Abramoff, so obviously your news source is factually incorrect.

http://www.newsmeat.com/washington_political_donations/Jack_Abramoff.php

The media has been horrific on this scandal, as they're reporting as much false information as possible to try to implicate Democrats.

[Flying Dog]

http://www.mlive.com/news/fljournal/index.ssf?/base/news-34/1137336609244730.xml&coll=5

I guess it was from his clients, not from him directly.

Oh, and it was $19,000

[Rococo4]

its not that he cant, its that he wont.

[Virginian87]

Ford is black, a Democrat, and from Memphis, and is running statewide in Tennessee. That's pretty much it.

Two of those reasons are correct, and it's not because he's a Democrat.

[AuH2O]

Maybe because he can't win?

[memphis]

Tennessee has good ol' boy Dixiecrats in the West and hardcore partisan Republicans in the east. It's a tough state for a black Democrat.

[HardRCafé]

No Democrat took money from Abramoff, so obviously your news source is factually incorrect.

http://www.newsmeat.com/washington_political_donations/Jack_Abramoff.php

That's so cute.  Trust no one but newsmeat.

[MissCatholic]

Ford might have a chance if the republican nominee has history of being a rapist. Alchoholics and drug-users get elected straight away.

Democrats need to be God to get close to winning in the south. Republicans proved this theory by running Jim Demint for the senate and he won in South Carolina.