2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think the "ex-Tory" thing will in itself be too much of a hindrance for Hobhouse, even with those dreaded Labour lefties (in fact they will often agree that the most important thing about "ex-Tory" is the "ex" bit) Her lack of front bench experience arguably matters more.

And even if Davey is the best - and most obvious - candidate (even if politically not that dissimilar to Swinson, he simply comes across as a nicer person) a coronation would not be a good idea (it very rarely is, and the continued fondness parties have for them as a "quick fix" is rather unfortunate)

Oh, and if a certain somebody wins Labour's contest it could mean two "Sirs" opposing self-styled "man of the people even if I'm an ex-Bullingdon boy Etonian" Johnson - and they are both from fairly modest backgrounds too!

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully Cooper wins or Jardine wins.

Neither has a realistic chance.

Moran is probably the "higher risk but potentially higher reward" candidate in this one.

[CumbrianLefty]

LibDems complaining about "lack of nuance" in Labour attacks on them......

Doesn't a phrase about motes and beams come to mind here?

Completely serious point now - LibDems were warned about not drinking the Kool Aid that was the (essentially meaningless) European election results, but proceeded to do so and in some style. With dire consequences for them, but more importantly for the rest of us too.

[CumbrianLefty]

The left wing credentials of the SNP are often much exaggerated (not least by themselves when it suits them) but they weren't a seriously "right wing" party in the 1970s, much less now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Layla Moran has come out as "pansexual", apparently.

[CumbrianLefty]

Boring election for a boring leader?

Though it can be said, again, that he doesn't have that edge of outright nastiness that Swinson did.

[CumbrianLefty]

Davey is at least reasonably that way, surely?

True, there is no Browne/Laws type candidate in prospect. But that was always a niche of a niche.

[CumbrianLefty]

Moran has announced she is running.

[CumbrianLefty]

Or rather "she has come out fighting", eh readers?

[CumbrianLefty]

That surprises me, though political betting odds are often *highly* unreliable.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

Depends on your definition of out of touch, Hobhouse is - like Corbyn - out of touch with the traditions of the party but, like Corbyn, far more in touch with the new largely largely single issue membership (EU for Lib Dem’s, wars for Labour).

Without wanting to go too much off topic, that wasn't really why he won in 2015 IMO.

Austerity, welfare cuts, Harman's "too clever by half" posturing are what did it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well FWIW I still think it very likely they will elect Davey.

But the possibility of something analogous to 2015 happening now shouldn't be dismissed. And it has the most chance of occurring if (as then) it is complacently assumed that it *can't* come about.

[CumbrianLefty]

I tend to think Brexit predominated partly because there wasn't the oxygen for any other issue. So either in a year's time all our politics will be coronavirus-inflected, or we'll have a reset to whatever normality will be by then. Brexit will probably have dropped down the agenda whatever happens.

Except that we are still due for a "hard exit" at the end of this year.....

(of course, the present crisis could well change that as well)

[CumbrianLefty]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which does seem sensible tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's still Hobhouse

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully Daisy Cooper will run in 2021

More plausible than if the contest was going ahead this year, as originally planned.

[CumbrianLefty]

Moran evidently on manoeuvres, making some leftish noises on Twitter yesterday.

[CumbrianLefty]

The "official" LibDem report into their 2019 election failure has been published. In parts it is amusing, in others almost horrifying, but that they have released such a thing is still to their credit.

(the contrast with my own party is indeed a fair one to make)

Though rarely actually referred to by name, it makes clear what a poisonous delusional grandiloquent s*** the former MP for Streatham was. Well, some of us did try to warn you......

[CumbrianLefty]

"Our strategy of being solely about 'STOP BREXIT!' had a logic to it, but was still ultimately a mistake" would be a pretty good summary I think. Also that the "centralisation" of the party since the Clegg years bought short term benefits, but is now working against them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Re your last point, maybe that is a reason to target Tories more? Little doubt in hindsight that another mistake of the Swinson era was to concentrate their attacks so heavily on Labour (despite which, they ultimately couldn't even win Hallam back - one of their most ridiculous failures)

[CumbrianLefty]

Now reported that moves are afoot to install a new permanent leader by the autumn.

[CumbrianLefty]

The only poll of LibDem members I am aware of (by YouGov, which does have a creditable record in these things) gave Davey a stonking lead over Moran. But that was a bit ago now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tomorrow, the "world famous" Mark Pack will have been acting co-leader of the LibDems for longer than Jo Swinson was actually leader. That's got to sting a bit