2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[DaWN]

I didn't see a thread for this and while the Labour election will be more exciting (for better and worse) I think this merits discussion as well.

Potential Candidates

Nobody has declared yet and it might be a few weeks before anyone does, but here are the potential runners and riders anyway.

Ed Davey
Kingston & Surbiton
Interim Leader, Deputy Leader, Treasury Spokesperson and former Energy Secretary

The clear frontrunner. Lost to Swinson earlier this year and got the Deputy Leadership as a consolation prize. I have to imagine there'll be some thoughts that running a guy who lost just a few months ago isn't a good idea but given the limited size of the parliamentary party. I can't see it being much of an issue. Probably a steady pair of hands and a good figure to lead the party through the five years of building up from the local level that should have taken place from 2015-2020 had events not intervened. Also represents as safe as a seat as the Lib Dems can have these days that isn't a pair of nearly empty islands in Scotland. Big question mark for him (and all the candidates) is how to facilitate a post-Brexit Europe policy that is acceptable to the membership (much of it new and pissed off at Brexit) and palatable to the electorate. Also has the stink of coalition on him and after the attacks on Swinson removing a stick for Labour to beat with might be a good idea. Favourite for now.

Layla Moran
Oxford West & Abingdon
Culture and Education Spokesperson

A young, fresh, post-coalition face that could connect well with the membership, and someone who has achieved some fairly impressive results in her own seat. Big question mark is her ability to connect with the electorate and a relationship scandal that happened a few years ago that the media would no doubt employ with haste against her. Also facilitating a post-Brexit Europe policy is, again, a question mark as I think she'd be likely to employ a Rejoin line that I think the party should refrain from for a few election cycles. Has quite a bit to prove but could do well, even more so if Davey doesn't run. I think she'd be better waiting for the next contest though.

Christine Jardine
Edinburgh West
Home Affairs Spokesperson

Another post-coalition woman, but one the media have ignored because she's not young or attractive. I actually like her and think she's quite impressive - a good speaker and seems like she'd be quite tough as well. Issues are is that she, like Davey, lost a party membership race a few months back, although a far less important office, and because it seems like the SNP are never going to get what they deserve, an East Dunbartonshire-redux might want to be avoided.

Daisy Cooper
St Albans

The newly elected MP for St Albans has been impressing some people but I think being quite so ambitious quite so soon isn't likely to endear her among her colleagues and she'd be dangerously inexperienced. I think Deputy Leader might be a better idea for her, but we'll have to see.

Wera Hobhouse
Bath
Environment and Transport Spokesperson

Like Davey represents a seat that is for all intents and purposes safe and has a decent record on climate change, but unlike the other post-coalition women, would be very open to attack from Labour as she is a literal former Tory. Is it fair to judge this against her? Not really, but you'll bet the Red Twitter Machine won't care and that's something I'd like to avoid. Honestly doubt she runs anyway.

Probably Not Running
Tim Farron won't run for fairly obvious reasons, Alistair Carmichael is probably better off keeping a lower-profile given he hasn't been scandal-free, Sarah Olney isn't really leadership material, Jamie Stone's seat is far too vulnerable and everyone else is newly elected.

Conclusions
To be honest, its difficult to see how Davey doesn't walk it if he runs and he might even go unopposed. Whether that's wise, who's to say, but I think he'd be willing to look at the mistakes the party made and learn from them in creating the five-year strategy for success in 2024. Unlike a certain other party that won't be mentioned.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think the "ex-Tory" thing will in itself be too much of a hindrance for Hobhouse, even with those dreaded Labour lefties (in fact they will often agree that the most important thing about "ex-Tory" is the "ex" bit) Her lack of front bench experience arguably matters more.

And even if Davey is the best - and most obvious - candidate (even if politically not that dissimilar to Swinson, he simply comes across as a nicer person) a coronation would not be a good idea (it very rarely is, and the continued fondness parties have for them as a "quick fix" is rather unfortunate)

Oh, and if a certain somebody wins Labour's contest it could mean two "Sirs" opposing self-styled "man of the people even if I'm an ex-Bullingdon boy Etonian" Johnson - and they are both from fairly modest backgrounds too!

[Continential]

Hopefully Cooper wins or Jardine wins.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully Cooper wins or Jardine wins.

Neither has a realistic chance.

Moran is probably the "higher risk but potentially higher reward" candidate in this one.

[Gary J]

I backed Swinson rather than Davey last time, as I thought that as a coalition junior minister she was less vulnerable to Labour attack than a former cabinet minister would be. I failed to appreciate how un-nuanced the Labour attack machine would be.

As any LD leader would obviously be attacked as a Tory sympathiser, even if they were not in Parliament during the coalition, we might as well elect Davey this time. He is by far the most experienced of the likely candidates. None of the newer MPs seem so outstanding that they should be fast tracked into the leadership, this time. 

[CumbrianLefty]

LibDems complaining about "lack of nuance" in Labour attacks on them......

Doesn't a phrase about motes and beams come to mind here?

Completely serious point now - LibDems were warned about not drinking the Kool Aid that was the (essentially meaningless) European election results, but proceeded to do so and in some style. With dire consequences for them, but more importantly for the rest of us too.

[DC Al Fine]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

2) Can someone give an explanation (or link me to one if a good one has already been done) of where and why Swinson and the Lib Dem campaign flopped? I know there was always a risk they'd get pushed aside by Johnson v Corbyn, but I feel lile they should've done better with the hardline remain stance.

3) Where should the Lib Dems go from here?

[DaWN]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office in 2015, and have been a major obstacle to anything approaching left of centre politics in this country because of their antics. Plus the adoration from some lefties in the rest of the UK towards them as if they are 'allies of Labour' or something along that just sickens me. Unfortunately the current situation (independence being desirable but not obtainable for the Scottish population) favours them heavily. They'll become unpopular eventually as all parties do but it won't be soon unfortunately.

(This is very much a personal opinion of mine and not gospel btw)

2) Can someone give an explanation (or link me to one if a good one has already been done) of where and why Swinson and the Lib Dem campaign flopped? I know there was always a risk they'd get pushed aside by Johnson v Corbyn, but I feel like they should've done better with the hardline remain stance.

There are a million different reasons and they need to be properly ascertained in a thorough post-mortem, but I think poor targeting, poor messaging and the Corbyn factor were the primary reasons. The first two need to be thoroughly looked at and assessed, the third is out of their control obviously.

3) Where should the Lib Dems go from here?

Build up from the local level, establish target seats and target groups, provide a pro-European message but not overly so (avoid rejoin like the plague), etc. They should especially try to peel off Tory Remainers who might not be enthralled with what Boris' government is going to do and possibly moderate Labourites who held their nose in December but might see Long-Bailey's inevitable win as the last straw. There isn't too much scope for gains off Labour though. It will be a long five years but it can be a productive one if they are willing to learn lessons and I think they are. Unlike Labour who will do exactly the same thing for five years then reprint the same manifesto word for word. But that's a story for another time...

[brucejoel99]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office in 2015, and have been a major obstacle to anything approaching left of centre politics in this country because of their antics. Plus the adoration from some lefties in the rest of the UK towards them as if they are 'allies of Labour' or something along that just sickens me. Unfortunately the current situation (independence being desirable but not obtainable for the Scottish population) favours them heavily. They'll become unpopular eventually as all parties do but it won't be soon unfortunately.

(This is very much a personal opinion of mine and not gospel btw)

Since when are the SNP right-wingers?

[mileslunn]

I don't think the "ex-Tory" thing will in itself be too much of a hindrance for Hobhouse, even with those dreaded Labour lefties (in fact they will often agree that the most important thing about "ex-Tory" is the "ex" bit) Her lack of front bench experience arguably matters more.

And even if Davey is the best - and most obvious - candidate (even if politically not that dissimilar to Swinson, he simply comes across as a nicer person) a coronation would not be a good idea (it very rarely is, and the continued fondness parties have for them as a "quick fix" is rather unfortunate)

Oh, and if a certain somebody wins Labour's contest it could mean two "Sirs" opposing self-styled "man of the people even if I'm an ex-Bullingdon boy Etonian" Johnson - and they are both from fairly modest backgrounds too!

May make it harder for Labour to form government if it is a hung parliament, but actually someone who leans right is not a bad choice.  As long as Brexit topic is dropped, gives them potential to regain rural areas in Somerset, Devon, and Cornwall which all lean right although with Brexit, might have burned too many bridges here.  Liberal Democrats best areas for gains are probably your posh constituencies in London and home counties and those areas lean right.  Your more left wing areas they won in 2005 and 2010 likely aren't coming back and only went Liberal Democrats due to unpopularity of Iraq war in 2005 so allowed them to win in heavily Muslim areas (which have now returned to Labour) and their promise to abolish tuition fees allowing them in 2005 and 2010 to win university towns, but after jacking them up under the coalition, those aren't coming back. 

[Former President tack50]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office in 2015, and have been a major obstacle to anything approaching left of centre politics in this country because of their antics. Plus the adoration from some lefties in the rest of the UK towards them as if they are 'allies of Labour' or something along that just sickens me. Unfortunately the current situation (independence being desirable but not obtainable for the Scottish population) favours them heavily. They'll become unpopular eventually as all parties do but it won't be soon unfortunately.

(This is very much a personal opinion of mine and not gospel btw)

Since when are the SNP right-wingers?

Iirc the SNP was centrist (kinda like the Lib Dems) in the 70s, voting to bring down Callaghan and what not and called the Tartan Tories; but yeah they are clearly left wing now.

A hypothetical Tory-SNP no confidence vote against a Labour PM is hard to imagine unlike in 1979

[Continential]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office in 2015, and have been a major obstacle to anything approaching left of centre politics in this country because of their antics. Plus the adoration from some lefties in the rest of the UK towards them as if they are 'allies of Labour' or something along that just sickens me. Unfortunately the current situation (independence being desirable but not obtainable for the Scottish population) favours them heavily. They'll become unpopular eventually as all parties do but it won't be soon unfortunately.

(This is very much a personal opinion of mine and not gospel btw)

If the SNP are Right Wing, what is Scottish Labour, Conservatives in name.

[Gary J]

Since 2015 Scottish politics has been mostly based not on the traditional left/right divide, but a nationalist/unionist cleavage. The SNP has won most Scottish seats. In seats where the SNP do not win, the locally leading unionist party has usually received tactical votes from supporters of the other unionist parties.

Scottish Labour can be perceived as de facto allies of the Scottish Conservatives, which discourages voters who used to support them from abandoning the SNP. This has the knock on effect of making the average SNP supporter more left wing than they used to be. It is notable that most current SNP held constituencies used to be super safe for the Labour Party, whereas some of the areas which the SNP won in before 2015 now elect Conservative MPs.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats may not have many strong supporters in Scotland, but in the areas where they remain the lead unionist option they can still win some seats. I suspect the only reason Jo Swinson lost was because her high UK anti-Brexit and anti-Corbyn profile discouraged the crucial 150 or so additional tactical votes that she needed. If she had not been the party leader, Swinson would have been re-elected as easily as the other Scottish Lib Dem MPs.

[Blair]

FWIW I think Davey would face an extremely tough challenge from either Moran or Cooper; because of the simple argument that 'it's time for someone new'.

He also had the sense to make the Liberal Democrats as more than a one issue party- he was very big on climate change & was actually the MP who helped repeal section 28 (the most heinous anti-LGBT law on the books)

Davey is a very safe pair of hands & the logical argument is that he takes the reins for 2-3 years and lets one of the 2-3 women take over- but that was always the argument about Vince (who was awful) and Swinson (who had enough hubris already)

[CumbrianLefty]

The left wing credentials of the SNP are often much exaggerated (not least by themselves when it suits them) but they weren't a seriously "right wing" party in the 1970s, much less now.

[Mr. Illini]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office

LOL the framing

[CumbrianLefty]

Layla Moran has come out as "pansexual", apparently.

[DaWN]

Layla Moran has come out as "pansexual", apparently.

The cynical part of me (so most of me) says that's either 'I'm running' or 'I'm presenting a convenient reason why I'm not running'

[DaWN]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/1218531060105039882?ref_src=twsrc%...

Won't be any news for a few months it seems

[DaWN]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

[CumbrianLefty]

Boring election for a boring leader?

Though it can be said, again, that he doesn't have that edge of outright nastiness that Swinson did.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

Will the Lib Dems ever vote for somebody who isn't tainted by the Coalition?

[DaWN]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

Will the Lib Dems ever vote for somebody who isn't tainted by the Coalition?

Yes. Mostly because Davey, Farron and Carmichael are their only remaining MPs from the Coalition years but also because eventually the Coalition will fade from memory both in the party itself and in the wider public.

Look, the Coalition was a mistake and they handled it appallingly - my support of the party is still very conditional on something like that never ever happening again - but it's more than time to move on.

Davey might be a bit boring but he's a safe pair of hands which is exactly what the party needs for the rebuilding process over the next five years. The only person I'd be willing to support over him at this point is Jardine - Moran is too much of a risk, Hobhouse just a bit crap, Cooper is too green.

[Zinneke]

I think a name change would be an interesting idea though.

[DaWN]

I think a name change would be an interesting idea though.

And why precisely is that?