2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[DaWN]

I didn't see a thread for this and while the Labour election will be more exciting (for better and worse) I think this merits discussion as well.

Potential Candidates

Nobody has declared yet and it might be a few weeks before anyone does, but here are the potential runners and riders anyway.

Ed Davey
Kingston & Surbiton
Interim Leader, Deputy Leader, Treasury Spokesperson and former Energy Secretary

The clear frontrunner. Lost to Swinson earlier this year and got the Deputy Leadership as a consolation prize. I have to imagine there'll be some thoughts that running a guy who lost just a few months ago isn't a good idea but given the limited size of the parliamentary party. I can't see it being much of an issue. Probably a steady pair of hands and a good figure to lead the party through the five years of building up from the local level that should have taken place from 2015-2020 had events not intervened. Also represents as safe as a seat as the Lib Dems can have these days that isn't a pair of nearly empty islands in Scotland. Big question mark for him (and all the candidates) is how to facilitate a post-Brexit Europe policy that is acceptable to the membership (much of it new and pissed off at Brexit) and palatable to the electorate. Also has the stink of coalition on him and after the attacks on Swinson removing a stick for Labour to beat with might be a good idea. Favourite for now.

Layla Moran
Oxford West & Abingdon
Culture and Education Spokesperson

A young, fresh, post-coalition face that could connect well with the membership, and someone who has achieved some fairly impressive results in her own seat. Big question mark is her ability to connect with the electorate and a relationship scandal that happened a few years ago that the media would no doubt employ with haste against her. Also facilitating a post-Brexit Europe policy is, again, a question mark as I think she'd be likely to employ a Rejoin line that I think the party should refrain from for a few election cycles. Has quite a bit to prove but could do well, even more so if Davey doesn't run. I think she'd be better waiting for the next contest though.

Christine Jardine
Edinburgh West
Home Affairs Spokesperson

Another post-coalition woman, but one the media have ignored because she's not young or attractive. I actually like her and think she's quite impressive - a good speaker and seems like she'd be quite tough as well. Issues are is that she, like Davey, lost a party membership race a few months back, although a far less important office, and because it seems like the SNP are never going to get what they deserve, an East Dunbartonshire-redux might want to be avoided.

Daisy Cooper
St Albans

The newly elected MP for St Albans has been impressing some people but I think being quite so ambitious quite so soon isn't likely to endear her among her colleagues and she'd be dangerously inexperienced. I think Deputy Leader might be a better idea for her, but we'll have to see.

Wera Hobhouse
Bath
Environment and Transport Spokesperson

Like Davey represents a seat that is for all intents and purposes safe and has a decent record on climate change, but unlike the other post-coalition women, would be very open to attack from Labour as she is a literal former Tory. Is it fair to judge this against her? Not really, but you'll bet the Red Twitter Machine won't care and that's something I'd like to avoid. Honestly doubt she runs anyway.

Probably Not Running
Tim Farron won't run for fairly obvious reasons, Alistair Carmichael is probably better off keeping a lower-profile given he hasn't been scandal-free, Sarah Olney isn't really leadership material, Jamie Stone's seat is far too vulnerable and everyone else is newly elected.

Conclusions
To be honest, its difficult to see how Davey doesn't walk it if he runs and he might even go unopposed. Whether that's wise, who's to say, but I think he'd be willing to look at the mistakes the party made and learn from them in creating the five-year strategy for success in 2024. Unlike a certain other party that won't be mentioned.

[DaWN]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office in 2015, and have been a major obstacle to anything approaching left of centre politics in this country because of their antics. Plus the adoration from some lefties in the rest of the UK towards them as if they are 'allies of Labour' or something along that just sickens me. Unfortunately the current situation (independence being desirable but not obtainable for the Scottish population) favours them heavily. They'll become unpopular eventually as all parties do but it won't be soon unfortunately.

(This is very much a personal opinion of mine and not gospel btw)

2) Can someone give an explanation (or link me to one if a good one has already been done) of where and why Swinson and the Lib Dem campaign flopped? I know there was always a risk they'd get pushed aside by Johnson v Corbyn, but I feel like they should've done better with the hardline remain stance.

There are a million different reasons and they need to be properly ascertained in a thorough post-mortem, but I think poor targeting, poor messaging and the Corbyn factor were the primary reasons. The first two need to be thoroughly looked at and assessed, the third is out of their control obviously.

3) Where should the Lib Dems go from here?

Build up from the local level, establish target seats and target groups, provide a pro-European message but not overly so (avoid rejoin like the plague), etc. They should especially try to peel off Tory Remainers who might not be enthralled with what Boris' government is going to do and possibly moderate Labourites who held their nose in December but might see Long-Bailey's inevitable win as the last straw. There isn't too much scope for gains off Labour though. It will be a long five years but it can be a productive one if they are willing to learn lessons and I think they are. Unlike Labour who will do exactly the same thing for five years then reprint the same manifesto word for word. But that's a story for another time...

[DaWN]

Layla Moran has come out as "pansexual", apparently.

The cynical part of me (so most of me) says that's either 'I'm running' or 'I'm presenting a convenient reason why I'm not running'

[DaWN]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LibDemPress/status/1218531060105039882?ref_src=twsrc%...

Won't be any news for a few months it seems

[DaWN]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

[DaWN]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

Will the Lib Dems ever vote for somebody who isn't tainted by the Coalition?

Yes. Mostly because Davey, Farron and Carmichael are their only remaining MPs from the Coalition years but also because eventually the Coalition will fade from memory both in the party itself and in the wider public.

Look, the Coalition was a mistake and they handled it appallingly - my support of the party is still very conditional on something like that never ever happening again - but it's more than time to move on.

Davey might be a bit boring but he's a safe pair of hands which is exactly what the party needs for the rebuilding process over the next five years. The only person I'd be willing to support over him at this point is Jardine - Moran is too much of a risk, Hobhouse just a bit crap, Cooper is too green.

[DaWN]

I think a name change would be an interesting idea though.

And why precisely is that?

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1222867388934381573?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Well, so much for boring.

For the record, I think she is actually quite a good speaker (at least she appears to be on video which is the important bit as that's how most people would see her) and think she is tough and can do the job. The big question for me is her seat though, so for now, I'd be inclined to support Davey but if she impresses during the campaign who knows.

Moran is too much of a risk. She might connect with voters but on the other hand she might put them off as well. As for appealing across the divide... whoever the leader is will be accused by the Labour machine of being an Orange Tory and by the Tory machine of a socialist in disguise. I think the party needs someone tough and able enough to fight back those attacks rather than someone who'll try to pacify them - because it won't work. The Labour Twitter base is insane and the Tories won't let a challenge to their heartlands go unfought. She also comes across to me as someone who Boris and the Tory machine will run over. Starmer/Nandy as well if a miracle happens (obviously Wrong-Failey couldn't run over a shrub if she tried) - but nearly all Lib Dem targets are Tory facing and will be until Labour are back in government, so being able to fight the Tories is imperative. Davey and Jardine I think could do that, I think Moran would struggle.

Very early days and another key element is how much are the candidates willing to learn from the election, which is a debate I think will happen unlike a certain other party.

[DaWN]

Hobhouse has declared. She's crap and won't win but it's certainly the final nail in my 'Davey coronation' theory.

Moran next?

[DaWN]

There aren't any Browne/Laws types left anyway

[DaWN]

Moran has announced she is running.

A phrase involving the number of cooks in a kitchen springs to mind

[DaWN]

I know it makes Labourites giddy (for some reason... all the Lib Dems' remaining seats would be won by one of your two mortal enemies if not them you do realise) but the party is not going to elect their own Corbyn and go down a rejoin rabbit hole. Just because you made a terrible decision 5 years ago that everyone is still reeling from the consequences of doesn't mean others will.

[DaWN]

But guaranteeing over a year without a new leader? That's just stupid.

There aren't going to be any elections over that period, there isn't much immediate need for a leader of a relatively small party aside from that. It's not the same as the Labour contest where a functioning Leader of the Opposition is a necessity.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1255848915645202432

In case anyone forgot this was still happening, Jardine is apparently pulling out. I suspect because she's decided she can't be bothered and it's maybe a bit of a poisoned chalice at this point anyway (it'll take a few years for the party to get back on its feet and I suspect whoever is elected this time will be not be leader at the election).

I was going to vote for her btw. Davey is about as exciting as watching paint dry and Moran is far too much of a risk.

[DaWN]

There's still Hobhouse

I can hardly contain my excitement.

Do you think that Swinson will regain her seat in 2024?

It is highly unlikely she runs. As for whether another LD candidate can do it, it depends if the SNP have become unpopular by then. It's got to happen eventually.

[DaWN]

As an actual Lib Dem member, i.e someone with an interest and stakes in, and perhaps more importantly, a vote in, this contest, I think there are a few bases I'd like to touch and give my view on the whole situation. God knows I don't want to be posting on Atlas right now but right now he doesn't have much choice in the matter so sod it.

The "official" LibDem report into their 2019 election failure has been published. In parts it is amusing, in others almost horrifying, but that they have released such a thing is still to their credit.

I read (alright, skimmed through) said report when it came out. It was indeed a useful excercise for the party and hopefully a lot of advice from it is taken, but the response of many of Twitter's more obnoxious dwellers was profoundly unhelpful. Otherwise, yes, its a step in the right direction.

It seems like the LibDem seat targeting went really wrong, with some pretty winnable seats being lost.

a) is partly responsible for b) but not entirely - had the election as a whole been more successful for a party (the message less garbled, the campaign less off-putting) then the easily winnable seats would have fallen. People raising their eyebrows and tut-tutting the moment the Lib Dems look at a seat that might be a bit of a long shot is not helpful to the overall discourse. Yes, mistakes were made (a Kensington-shaped one being very prominent) and targeting decisions need to be made much better next time, but that doesn't mean it has to be as narrowed down as some people think. Particularly if the government is unpopular. Which we'll get to.

A concern for them is that Starmer is a lot more appealing to their voters than Corbyn was, so maybe their vote just gets squeezed further.

It's certainly a concern I have. It's nice Labour have a leader who isn't a reprehensible twat but that doesn't mean the cultures or ideas that shaped Labour throughout the Corbyn years have gone. I am not of the opinion that Labour deserves votes from our potential voter base yet - yes, Starmer has been impressive but his party has not. You cannot separate one from the other. I doubt many like-minded people agree with me though.

Maybe that is a reason to target Tories more? Little doubt in hindsight that another mistake of the Swinson era was to concentrate their attacks so heavily on Labour (despite which, they ultimately couldn't even win Hallam back - one of their most ridiculous failures)

In hindsight, yes, quite possibly, but at the time, with Corbyn the least popular politician in the country and Labour brand about as popular as dysentry? I fail to see how anyone else wouldn't have reached the same conclusion Swinson did. And it's not like your party covered themselves with glory regarding us either. With Corbyn gone, yes, to attack Labour would be very foolish. There will be plenty of opportunities to take votes and seats from Labour - the next time they are in government. Before then it's a fool's errand outside Hallam and as you said, the miserable failure there means even that's looking unlikely for now.

Swinson's seat aside (SNP v. Lib Dem), all the potential Lib Dem gains in a future election under the current map are Conservative seats (and it's generally been that way since the Alliance, I think), so the expansion of the Lib Dems will require the Tories to start losing again.

Blackford's seat is another target from the SNP (and a very rewarding one as to rid Parliament of that tosser) but yes, this is the key point, especially regarding the more educated suburban seats where we already went up quite a bit and Brexit could possibly result in even more of a backlash.

The report rightly notes too that a lot of money was wasted in the defector seats-Sam Gyimah for example handed Keningston to the Tories

Kensington was a mistake yes. Regarding the defectors, I think moving them from seat to seat was mostly a mistake. They either should have stayed and fought their own seats - Gyimah and Umunna certainly - or been given a safe or at least very winnable seat. As this won't be a problem next time its academic of course.

this was a brexit election which frankly would have only deprived Johnson of a majority if there was much like in 1918 a coupon for the 2nd referedum candidate; Labour wouldn't stand in the 50 or so Liberal/Tory targets & the Lib Dems would pull out of Tory/Lab marginals. It's extremely unlikely but this is the only way that 2019 produces anything close to a hung parliament.

I don't want to refight the arguments from the 2019 election but to be blunt Corbyn would never have let this happen. Despite the events of the election and its aftermath, Corbyn's flag was attached to a very clear mast and it wasn't that one.

However a lot of the above is known- what is interesting is the future of the Lib Dems. As Stephen Bush from the NS put in a good piece the Liberal Democrats use to win running hyper-local campaigns which led to them having a group of MPs with very little in common.

This is not a good idea in this day and age - the advent of social media and the marked shift in both the Tory and Labour approaches essentially rule this out as a strategy. Plus it took the better part of 20 years to build that up in the first place - to be blunt, nobody wants to wait that long to get above 20 seats. For instance, those seats in the south west built on personalities are never coming back, apart from maybe St Ives.

Starmer imo is extremely well suited to at the least take votes, if not outright threaten some the new Liberal-Tory marginals (Wimbledon for example)

Well that's on Labour to back off and let us take the tactical votes in seats like that. Starmer doesn't seem like the petty arsehole type so let's hope that doesn't happen. And yes, I'm aware that may have been the case in reverse in Kensington last year, but I've said that was a mistake, and one that neither side should repeat.

Now I've responded to a few ideas put out, two questions remain - who's the leader and what's the approach?

Jardine backing out was a shame, but on reflection, I think we need a leader with a safe seat. Farron nearly losing then Swinson actually losing meant embarrassment, but also the leader spending time and resources they shouldn't need to. Jardine would have been an effective leader but the Tartan Bastards never seem to get what's coming to them and I think she would have suffered from that as well. Luckily, Davey, Moran and Hobhouse are all in functionally safe seats at this point, so that's okay.

bants when alistair carmichael declares and wins lmao

Anyway, had RLB actually won the Labour contest I think I would have plumped for Davey - dull and boring, but also unlikely to make any major mistakes and very capable at letting the idiots at the top embarass themselves. But with Starmer? I don't see how that approach would work. He would compare unfavourably with Starmer who is frankly just the more impressive of the two.

But I really doubt Moran's capability to be leader - she's a risk that could pay off big time or she could crash and burn. On the other hand, no stink of coalition, which finally removes a wedge that Labour have been beating with for what feels like decades at this point. Genuinely undecided. Will have to see how the campaign plays out, but err, not exactly bristling with choices here am I.

Hobhouse seems to be taking the 'rejoin' route, (albeit in a very 'lets take our time about it' manner) which I think is a mistake, plus I just cannot bear to think about four years of red roses on twitter yelling the 'ex-Tory!!!' line. So I guess that's that ruled out.

So I don't know. Will have to pay attention to the campaign. Hurrah.

As for the approach to take? Well, for now, this

a party for progressives in seats Labour can't win

sounds about right, particularly if there's a Brexit-based backlash among educated suburban Conservatives. It's not the ideal situation but if the government loses ground,  Labour isn't led by someone who actively repulses them and Brexit doesn't go swimmingly then I think its a viable approach to get into the 20s next time.

I'm not enthused about the future of this party - a party I joined out of utter repulsion at the big two, let's not forget, and Labour making its first good decision in a decade is not a sign that's going to change. But with four years to rebuild and a government that's probably about to make itself rather unpopular, who knows what the future might hold. Probably more disappointment.

[DaWN]

Davey has officially entered, and has endorsements from Jardine and Olney to start off with. His main task will be convincing us that he is slightly more interesting than wallpaper.

Anyway, I'll take this opportunity to start up a tracker for each MP, their status and endorsements. Because why not, not as if it's going to take me very long is it. Will be updated as we go along, provided I don't die of boredom first.

Leadership Candidates
Ed Davey (Kingston & Surbiton)
Wera Hobhouse (Bath)
Layla Moran (Oxford West & Abingdon)

Endorsement Tracker
Davey
Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West)
Sarah Olney (Richmond Park)
Moran
Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross)
Yet to Endorse
Alistair Carmichael (Orkey & Shetland) (Chief Whip so may not endorse)
Wendy Chamberlain (North East Fife)
Daisy Cooper (St Albans)
Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale) (May not endorse for obvious reasons)
Munira Wilson (Twickenham)

[DaWN]

Isn't there a fairly obvious skeletal closet situation with Moran?

Ahem, yes. She did manage to make it disappear fairly easily at the time but these things have a habit of appearing again...

A lot of our overperformance there was due to #candidatequality and I would expect some local unwind if Monica Harding chose not to stand again.

I think that over-performance was probably more down to the identity of the Conservative candidate than the identity of our candidate

[DaWN]

I think that's a very unfair assessment of Cable, who did what he had to do - stabilise a sinking ship and give it a relevant purpose again, which he did. That it later went wrong isn't relevant to his handling of it. I'm currently leaning Davey (despite his canny ability to put people to sleep) because he could well serve that function at a time when its rather desperately needed, especially when Labour is pretending its changed anything other than the leader and is nicking all our voters. And after all, if he goes nowhere, we can ditch him for Cooper two years down the line so that's okay.

Regarding Moran, I had forgotten about the pansexuality thing, but frankly anyone who cares about that wasn't voting for us in the first place. The assault stuff is a potential problem though. But mostly I don't think I want her as leader because she just doesn't seem up to the job, and well, Labour tried that didn't they and look how well it went.

[DaWN]

Well there's the countryside and the countryside isn't there. I think the party as a whole needs to accept most of the old south western base isn't coming back - it suffered a terminal blow in May 2010 and finally bit the dust in June 2016. But there are regions where a rural recovery could be very feasible - if B&R was winnable in August 2019 there's no reason why it shouldn't be in May 2024 for instance.

If I was a party strategist however, I think in 2024 I would concentrate the vast vast majority of resources on the following seats:

East Dunbartonshire
Wimbledon
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher & Walton
Lewes
Guildford
St Ives
Hazel Grove
Hitchin & Harpenden
Wokingham
Surrey SW
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Brecon & Radnorshire

Unless there's a long-shot that becomes very promising during the campaign, don't bother outside of these seats (Tory/SNP facing seats where Labour even under Starmer will go nowhere). And obviously throw the kitchen sink at holding Caithness and Westmorland.

Overall, I think concentrating on a set of local campaigns can begin the rebuild. As for what leader will be best at that... well, dull might be the order of the day, might it not?

[DaWN]

Surrendering winnable seats so Labour can get useless second places is not a plan I'd personally go for. Basically every seat we want depends on tactical voting, the reason I think a small list of target seats is a good thing is that it makes it very clear where we're the tactical option and where we aren't, rather than taking the piss like we admittedly did in 2019.

[DaWN]

Quite a few Corbynistas on social media are getting *very* excited over Moran.

That sounds... very ridiculous yet very plausible.

Safe to say the Member for Oxford West & Abingdon is not doing a brilliant job of endearing herself to me.

[DaWN]

Yes, we could do that. Or we just could just disband. It would have more or less the same effect and Labour types would be even happier.

May I suggest the following
1) Basing a strategy on current polling would be a disaster for any party, because the chances of polling in May 2024 resembling polling now are microscopically low.
2) Universal swing is not a thing; it's possible for a small party like the Lib Dems to go up in seats and down in votes. Especially as there are not many seats with low swings needed to gain.

Playing defence as described would be suicide and outside of Labour wet dreams nobody is considering it so forget it.

[DaWN]

Poor DaWN... Corbyn might be (politically) dead, but there is no escape from his spectre

Oh don't worry about me. I'm more or less at peace with this now. At least the man himself has f!cked off, so small mercies and all that.

In general I agree with CumbrianLeftie though that she's being overrated and Davey would have to prove he's really dull for her to have much of a chance. And well, in the context of a campaign it's going to be easier to Davey to prove he's not boring than for her to prove she's up to the job.

Why is Moran even a LibDem? She could easily sit with the hard left at labour.
There’s nothing really liberal about any of the candidates

This is really rather overstating it however.

[DaWN]

The Lib Dems were arguably overall to the left of Labour during parts of the 2000s.

I'm also of the opinion that this is mostly a myth