2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[Coldstream]

A Lib Dem I know is really worried that Hobhouse is going to storm it like Corbyn did. Logic is that most Lib Dem members are post-2016 FBPE hardline Remainers who will vote for the rejoin candidate.

[Coldstream]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

Depends on your definition of out of touch, Hobhouse is - like Corbyn - out of touch with the traditions of the party but, like Corbyn, far more in touch with the new largely largely single issue membership (EU for Lib Dem’s, wars for Labour).

As I understand it Davey is disliked by most of the grassroots due to the coalition, and being lukewarm on the EU - second only to Norman Lamb. That’s why he lost so badly to Swinson.

People forget even most Pre-2015 members saw themselves as on the left and anti-Tory, and a decent chunk of the membership now are ex-Labour members who perhaps came via Change UK so are really unlikely to go for someone associated with the coalition.

Cooper/Jardine are unknown whereas Hobhouse has gone round the grassroots events a lot. Cooper is a good campaigner though and respected amongst the more engaged membership.

Moran would win right now imo, but she’s the Burnham of this and I could see her triangulating too much on the EU and losing. Like how in 2015 you had STW, PSC, PAAA etc encouraging their supporters to swarm in to Labour I could see similar hardline remain groups encouraging supporters to swarm in to the Lib Dem’s to back Hobhouse once Labour has elected its new leader. Moran also has the whole assault baggage (the painfully centrist FBPE types will care about that).

[Coldstream]

If the Lib Dems go all in on a hardline #rejoin campaign, how likely is it that they get wiped out? Do they even have anything remotely resembling a safe seat?

I guess the Lib Dems would just become the Orkney and Shetland party?

Not likely. In fact I can’t see why they’d do worse than in 2019. The very worst case scenario  for them is that people stop caring about the EU, in which case they’d just not make any advances. I can’t see a situation where somehow 60-70% of the population become Brexiteers which is what it would take for them to suffer a backlash leading to a wipeout in the small, very hardline Remain, seats they hold. With the exception of Westmoreland and Lonsdale and Orkney+Shetland the other seats are all places that they’ve won solely on the basis of their pro-Remain message and probably would support rejoining the EU. Or the ones in Scotland on the basis of being the strongest unionist party.

[Coldstream]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

Depends on your definition of out of touch, Hobhouse is - like Corbyn - out of touch with the traditions of the party but, like Corbyn, far more in touch with the new largely largely single issue membership (EU for Lib Dem’s, wars for Labour).

Without wanting to go too much off topic, that wasn't really why he won in 2015 IMO.

Austerity, welfare cuts, Harman's "too clever by half" posturing are what did it.

That’s what motivated the leadership of Momentum sure, and a chunk of pre-existing members -  but the vast majority of his newly joined supporters came from the mailing lists of the stop the war coalition and the Palestine solidarity campaign. They neither knew nor cared anything about socialist economic policies. 

Hence why it’s the same as the FBPE influx to the Lib Dem’s, they don’t care about the Liberal traditions of the party - they only see it as a vehicle for pushing rejoin. Which is why I think Hobhouse could do it.

[Coldstream]

Honestly, the notion that the Stop the War Coalition or the Palestine Solidarity Campaign don't care about socialist economic policies is pretty absurd - the former is an SWP front group, the latter is propped up by a combination of trade unions and various far-left groupings.

And Corbyn won by a couple of orders of magnitude more than the membership of both those organisations combined. There's plenty to complain about with regard to some of those who've joined Labour since 2015, but you're wide of the mark here.

Getting off topic, but I’ve known rank and file supporters of both of these organisations (far vaster than the actual membership and it was this mailing list that swelled Corbyn’s ranks)   - and the SWP itself - and I’ve never seen any evidence they are socialists at all. Sure the inner circle are Socialists/Communists but the average member isn’t moved by that - it’s why their leaflets are always about war rather than economic theory.

Or at least that socialism is their primary motivator in contrast to Militant in the 80s or the much smaller AWL, CPGB types. All they care about is Palestine, Iraq etc. Just calling yourself a socialist doesn’t make you one, but even if they might prefer Socialism to other economic models it’s just absurd to think they prioritise it - hence why many backed (and were even members of) the Lib Dem’s 2003-2010. I really don’t think it’s controversial if you’ve had any extended interaction with Corbynites to say that Corbyn’s support was/is far more about his foreign policy than his economics. If, say, Crispin Blunt was Tory leader and Mike Gapes was Labour leader, I’m pretty certain they’d vote for Blunt.

Fair enough if you disagree, I can’t exactly prove it empirically without a vast survey of the membership - but I can’t see how if you’ve been to any of these meetings you wouldn’t come away thinking these people don’t care about economics - apart from anything else the overwhelming majority are from middle/upper class backgrounds.

[Coldstream]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

That’s fair - and what I was getting at. I wouldn’t describe people who’d object to increased taxation on relatively high incomes like that as socialist. It’s essentially the Beveridge style left/radical liberals. I was also at a Momentum event a few weeks ago and I was one of 2/150ish that were members of a trade union.

But my point about new joiners ideology was secondary to my point about the fact that the new joiners were generally not embedded in the history/culture of the Labour Party irrespective of their ideology (imo a few were unreconstructed Communists, some were genuine socialists and most were liberals). Same as the FBPE joiners to the Lib Dem’s, and the Lib Dem’s/Liberals have always had a very idiosyncratic internal party culture anyway.

So that’s why I think Hobhouse is in with a shot similarly to Corbyn’s, given that she’s the only person advocating for the position that motivated most Lib Dem’s to join. Worth pointing out that 9/11 of their seats are ones they’ve only gained since the referendum on the basis largely of their Pro-EU policy, so I can easily see the party embracing a hardliner on the issue.

[Coldstream]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

That’s fair - and what I was getting at. I wouldn’t describe people who’d object to increased taxation on relatively high incomes like that as socialist. It’s essentially the Beveridge style left/radical liberals. I was also at a Momentum event a few weeks ago and I was one of 2/150ish that were members of a trade union.

But my point about new joiners ideology was secondary to my point about the fact that the new joiners were generally not embedded in the history/culture of the Labour Party irrespective of their ideology (imo a few were unreconstructed Communists, some were genuine socialists and most were liberals). Same as the FBPE joiners to the Lib Dem’s, and the Lib Dem’s/Liberals have always had a very idiosyncratic internal party culture anyway.

So that’s why I think Hobhouse is in with a shot similarly to Corbyn’s, given that she’s the only person advocating for the position that motivated most Lib Dem’s to join. Worth pointing out that 9/11 of their seats are ones they’ve only gained since the referendum on the basis largely of their Pro-EU policy, so I can easily see the party embracing a hardliner on the issue.

But has there really been that big a turnover in the LibDem membership? Most members are presumably people who joined before the coalition.

Their membership at the end of 2014 was 48000, it’s now over 120000...

And that’s ignoring the small - but not non-existent - eurosceptic wing who will have left post 2016. All together the overwhelming majority of the membership - at least 60% - are post 2016 members.

[Coldstream]

I know it makes Labourites giddy (for some reason... all the Lib Dems' remaining seats would be won by one of your two mortal enemies if not them you do realise) but the party is not going to elect their own Corbyn and go down a rejoin rabbit hole. Just because you made a terrible decision 5 years ago that everyone is still reeling from the consequences of doesn't mean others will.

There are only 2 seats that the Lib Dem’s hold that aren’t directly attributable to having a Pro-EU position since 2016. It’s hardly a “rabbit hole”, whatever that means to you. Without that - and with Labour and the Tories both moving away from the extremes they don’t really have any major appeal without being the Pro-EU party.

[Coldstream]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

Ugh, the election is digital or by mail. The hustings can be online; the previous ones were livestreamed anyway. There's no legitimate reason to delay this.

They want to give people a chance to go to hustings to see the candidates in person, it’s a tradition in British politics. It would also look a bit self indulgent to have a leadership election amidst a national crisis (it’s different for Labour whose election was pretty much finished already).

I guess a cynical motive might be that the election would get lost in the press if they hold it now. At least next year whoever the new leader is might get some press. I assumed that was why they decided to hold it after Labour in the first place.

[Coldstream]

I canvassed in two Cities and Kensington in the last GE. Incidentally Two cities was for the unlamented Steve Saxby, a man who no one will miss from politics.

I came away thinking that the Lib Dem’s would easily win two cities whereas there was still some Tory support left in Kensington and comparatively little Lib Dem support (though I think this was before Gyimah announced he was running).

 I remember none of the people I knew thought that Gyimah had a shot and could only cost Labour in Kensington (assisted by the fact that EDC was a less than ideal candidate) whereas the consensus was that Chuka Umunna would win since Two Cities is just so remainy and Mark Field was disgraced. In fact I’m pretty sure had Field been the Tory candidate Umunna would still have narrowly won.

There isn’t much of an ethnic minority population in Two Cities, that I saw at least, but there’s quite a lot in next door Vauxhall which might be the source of confusion.

I agree with the above that the Lib Dem’s would probably do better at picking up the Clegg-Cameron type seats with Ed Davey, whereas all Moran really offers is a chance for a three way competition with Labour and the Greens for the progressive vote which will hurt them in the places they actually need to win to deny a Tory majority (Esher, Guildford, Lewes etc) and be able to be a junior coalition partner again.

[Coldstream]

My advice to the LibDems, which I give out here for free, is to make a serious effort to launch some sort of recovery in the countryside.

I mean, they managed to win a byelection in a mostly rural seat less than a year ago......

Which they won because of uniquely strong local organisation and a split between he Tories and Brexit Party, then they lost it 4 months later. Lib Dem’s best chance at short term gains are places in the countryside where Labour won’t ever win but the Tories aren’t popular, what sustained them 1992-2015.

[Coldstream]

Well there's the countryside and the countryside isn't there. I think the party as a whole needs to accept most of the old south western base isn't coming back - it suffered a terminal blow in May 2010 and finally bit the dust in June 2016. But there are regions where a rural recovery could be very feasible - if B&R was winnable in August 2019 there's no reason why it shouldn't be in May 2024 for instance.

If I was a party strategist however, I think in 2024 I would concentrate the vast vast majority of resources on the following seats:

East Dunbartonshire
Wimbledon
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher & Walton
Lewes
Guildford
St Ives
Hazel Grove
Hitchin & Harpenden
Wokingham
Surrey SW
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Brecon & Radnorshire

Unless there's a long-shot that becomes very promising during the campaign, don't bother outside of these seats (Tory/SNP facing seats where Labour even under Starmer will go nowhere). And obviously throw the kitchen sink at holding Caithness and Westmorland.

Overall, I think concentrating on a set of local campaigns can begin the rebuild. As for what leader will be best at that... well, dull might be the order of the day, might it not?

I’d agree with this list minus Wimbledon, which I’d say is more likely to swing back to Labour with Starmer in charge. Though probably will still go Tory due to a split vote again.

[Coldstream]

Prior to the 2015 wipeout, they were overwhelmingly dependent on Short Money.

Though since then they have had a significant upturn in membership.

True, though you have to wonder how many will drift away/(back) to Labour without Brexit or Corbyn to rally against.