2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[brucejoel99]

A few questions:

1) Dawn, why does the SNP deserve to get its arse kicked? I'm an Atlantic Canadian so obviously I'm not sympathetic to seperatists tearing up the country, but why specifically?

Because they are nasty right-wing nationalists who actively and gleefully put David Cameron in office in 2015, and have been a major obstacle to anything approaching left of centre politics in this country because of their antics. Plus the adoration from some lefties in the rest of the UK towards them as if they are 'allies of Labour' or something along that just sickens me. Unfortunately the current situation (independence being desirable but not obtainable for the Scottish population) favours them heavily. They'll become unpopular eventually as all parties do but it won't be soon unfortunately.

(This is very much a personal opinion of mine and not gospel btw)

Since when are the SNP right-wingers?

[brucejoel99]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

Will the Lib Dems ever vote for somebody who isn't tainted by the Coalition?

[brucejoel99]

Hobhouse has declared. She's crap and won't win but it's certainly the final nail in my 'Davey coronation' theory.

Her insinuation that the Lib Dems should pivot to an immediate 'rejoin' position is also crap.

[brucejoel99]

I tend to think Brexit predominated partly because there wasn't the oxygen for any other issue. So either in a year's time all our politics will be coronavirus-inflected, or we'll have a reset to whatever normality will be by then. Brexit will probably have dropped down the agenda whatever happens.

Except that we are still due for a "hard exit" at the end of this year.....

(of course, the present crisis could well change that as well)

As polling has borne out (&, if nothing else, as logic would dictate), the present crisis will definitely change that. BoJo's just gonna have to extend the transition period beyond December.

[brucejoel99]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

Ugh, the election is digital or by mail. The hustings can be online; the previous ones were livestreamed anyway. There's no legitimate reason to delay this.

[brucejoel99]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

Ugh, the election is digital or by mail. The hustings can be online; the previous ones were livestreamed anyway. There's no legitimate reason to delay this.

They want to give people a chance to go to hustings to see the candidates in person, it’s a tradition in British politics. It would also look a bit self indulgent to have a leadership election amidst a national crisis (it’s different for Labour whose election was pretty much finished already).

I guess a cynical motive might be that the election would get lost in the press if they hold it now. At least next year whoever the new leader is might get some press. I assumed that was why they decided to hold it after Labour in the first place.

Even still, a mere delay until the autumn would make more sense (especially since that could always be pushed back as well if need be). But guaranteeing over a year without a new leader? That's just stupid.

[brucejoel99]

But guaranteeing over a year without a new leader? That's just stupid.

There aren't going to be any elections over that period, there isn't much immediate need for a leader of a relatively small party aside from that. It's not the same as the Labour contest where a functioning Leader of the Opposition is a necessity.

The fact that they're "a relatively small party" is the problem. If anything, such a long delay just makes it seem like the party is determined to consign itself to irrelevancy, no matter what.

[brucejoel99]

Probably a bit off-topic, but on that note why did Blair support the Irak war? Throughout Europe the trend was generally opposed to the war, and Blair in particular seems like a bad fit for supporting it?

I would imagine most of Labour's base was oppsoed to the war, and in fact I would not be surprised if there were more supporters of the war among the Conservatives in 2002!

Why did Blair side with Bush over Chirac and Schröder? Especially when Blairism is not that far from what Schröder was doing in Germany

Prior to Iraq, (& I know this is hard to imagine, but) liberal interventionism was on its way to becoming more-or-less pretty universally accepted as a good policy. Specifically, Blair was worshiped as a hero in Kosovo & Sierra Leone for pushing intervention there to end conflicts. There were literally kids in Kosovo named Tonibler, & two of the main streets in Pristina are Bill Clinton Ave. & Tony Blair Ave. So he was very gung ho on keeping it going.

Blair was also obsessed with what his 'legacy' would be after he'd left office (ironic given the state it's in now). This obsession with how he'd be remembered was quite prominently satirized on The Thick of It.

So, it's 2003. The UK had helped the US go into Afghanistan, which garnered them no bad press, & was even supported by Russia. The view of much of the world was that the West could act unilaterally in anyway they wanted.

A section in Raymond Geuss' Politics and the Imagination where he quotes a senior Foreign Office Diplomat's memoirs from ~2002, when the planning stages for Iraq were in motion, provides some pretty good insight into Blair's mindset at the time:

Before the invasion of Iraq a group of experts on the Middle East met with Blair to warn him: the situation in Iraq, they claimed, was complex; one would have to have a very clear idea of what one planned to do, how one would organise the occupation and reconstruction of the country, etc. Blair is said to have listened with evident annoyance and increasing disinterest, and to have repeatedly interrupted the experts with the rhetorical question: 'But Saddam is evil, isn't he?'

So, yeah. If one removes any conspiracy-esque theories about Haliburton or money, etc., Iraq - for Blair - was gonna be his primary legacy project. It's a large country compared to his previous international escapades, & it had a very poor track record on human rights (e.g., the Kurds, etc.), so if it had all worked out, & they managed to turn it into another liberal democracy, then it would've cemented Blair's reputation as one of the most successful post-war PMs.

[brucejoel99]

Or 22, in Blair's case

[brucejoel99]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2020/06/next-liberal-democrat-leader-must-not-turn-left

A very sensible & not so coded attack on Moran by Tim Farron; who was social democratic choice in 2015.

That's a good dose of reality from Farron. The vast majority of LibDdm targets are Tory seats so realistically they need to win over wavering Tory voters.

That isn't really the argument that Farron was making, & he didn't for a very good reason: winning those seats is (& always has been) about coalition-building: that is, your 'woke student activists' very quickly become 'graduates,' who are disproportionately already in the Lib Dems' held + target seats & disproportionately the groups that the Lib Dems already run the score up in.

They then build on that because (with few exceptions) that isn't enough to get over the line. Farron himself attributes his success to 'class-war in the countryside' & squeeze voters, the nature of which changes in every seat. Going on about a homogeneous group of voters who identify themselves as Tories or as being on the center-right just isn't how people think, isn't how people vote, & isn't how the Lib Dems have ever performed well.

[brucejoel99]

Davey extending his lead over Moran in endorsements, it does appear to be his to lose now.

- Davey: Jardine, Olney, Wilson
- Moran: Hobhouse, Stone, Chamberlain
- Undeclared: Cooper
- Neutral: Farron, Carmichael

[brucejoel99]

Given voting ends in 4 days

How long after voting ends do we get results?

[brucejoel99]

Given voting ends in 4 days

How long after voting ends do we get results?

Don't know the exact day but I suspect not long after it closes, as it's mostly being done online.

Incidentally, the day the results are released is the day whether I decide to renew my direct debit or not. Or, to put it in broader terms, to stay D-UK or to go back to I-UK.

Earlier this year the Labour result was announced a couple of days after the ballot closed. It will take a bit of time for independent scrutineers to count the votes so I expect similar here.

Just looked it up, the results will be announced on Thursday the 27th.

I don’t mean to come off bitchy but... will it make any difference? Will a leadership change stop their decline?

You saw the importance of leadership at the last election. Had Davey been leader, the Lib Dems likely would have done better.

Honestly, though, the number one thing that needs to happen to revive their fortunes is out of their hands: have Labour do well.

Idk about that. A lot of Swinson's interviews & media appearances were dominated by the coalition, & judging from the interviews & debates thus far, it's been the same for Davey. Perhaps the voters themselves don't care too much, but it's not good if half the time during media appearances, people see the Lib Dems having to defend the coalition. Based on her media performances & interviews thus far, at least Moran would get an easier ride without being tainted by any coalition baggage.

[brucejoel99]

This has been fun, see y'all again next year.

[brucejoel99]

In his first significant intervention as "full time" leader, Davey has said the LibDems are not going to seek to reverse Brexit any time soon. Better late than never, I suppose.

Probably for the best, going on & on about rejoining for years to come would only serve to alienate people.