The Delegate Fight: 2020

[brucejoel99]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

[brucejoel99]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

Superdelegates no longer have the right to cast decisive votes on the first ballot. They'll only be allowed to cast non-decisive votes on the first ballot if a candidate has received a majority of all delegates as a result of the primaries & caucuses (i.e. 2,376 pledged delegates going into the convention), or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention (which is no longer happening due to the events of this past week).

[brucejoel99]

In a 50/50 race Biden comes close to clinching the nomination with the remaining contests (I excluded unallocated delegates where contests have already taken place). Current polling seems to suggest Biden has well over 50% in a lot of the upcoming states. Unless I really botched my math and barring any huge Sanders upsets to change the overall narrative, Biden should easily get the majority of delegates if things stay constant?

Yes.

Even if Sanders stays until the end?

Yes.

[brucejoel99]

It seems highly unlikely that the DNC would actually follow through on this, though the easy way out (claiming that the Republicans did it against their will) isn't available as JBE was the one who postponed the primary.  A rules change seems highly likely.

Yeah, considering how both the Republican Secretary of State & Democratic Governor (JBE) signed off on this, I would imagine that their hope is (& for all we know, perhaps JBE already received assurances from Perez & co. behind-the-scenes) that the DNC will modify their rules.

[brucejoel99]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

Superdelegates no longer have the right to cast decisive votes on the first ballot. They'll only be allowed to cast non-decisive votes on the first ballot if a candidate has received a majority of all delegates as a result of the primaries & caucuses (i.e. 2,376 pledged delegates going into the convention), or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention (which is no longer happening due to the events of this past week).

So if somebody goes into the convention with a simple majority of pledged delegates on the first ballet, they're the nominee and there's no superdelegates in the equation?

Correct, yes.

[brucejoel99]

ABC showing superdelegates already

At this rate, they'll probably be allowed to vote on the first ballot.

[brucejoel99]

Mods can feel free to unsticky.  See you next time, if there is a next time.

Coming in 2024: the 1st Congress of the Republican Party of Trumpea, held to unanimously nominate Donald Trump, Jr.

[brucejoel99]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

Well, if we're gonna be technical about it, he can't "officially clinch" the nomination until 1,991 pledged delegates have cast their votes for him at the convention.

Of course, though, the DNC itself has already declared him to be the presumptive nominee, so saying he can't "officially clinch" it yet is all but trivial.

[brucejoel99]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.

Well, if we're gonna be technical about it, he can't "officially clinch" the nomination until 1,991 pledged delegates have cast their votes for him at the convention.

Of course, though, the DNC itself has already declared him to be the presumptive nominee, so saying he can't "officially clinch" it yet is all but trivial.

Who cares what the DNC says? Hillary called Trumps Supporters "Basket of Deplorables" and I am doing the same thing with Bidens Supporters now.

I mean, with regards to determining who the nominee of the Democratic Party is, what the party's executive committee says matters. You might not care what they say, but everybody else with a brain does.

As for the latter half of your opinion: