The Delegate Fight: 2020

[Sorenroy]

North Carolina

Superdelegates

Biden (1): Rep. G.K. Butterfield

Uncommitted (11): Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. David Price, Rep. Alma Adams, Denise Adams, Wayne Goodwin, Shelia Huggins, Ray McKinnon, Cliff Moone, Bobbie Richardson, John Verdejo, Unknown identity

As a member of the State Executive Committee for the Democrats, I wanted to give an updated list of the five elected unpledged PLEOs (elected February 29th).

DD Adams
Sheila Huggins
Matt Hughes
Jenny Marshall
John Verdeja

[Sorenroy]

I made a similar post on the 538 model thread, but they probably work better here. Below is a chart of the percent of remaining delegates each candidate must get to gain a majority going into the convention:


Percent Needed:
Biden — 51.77%
Sanders — 55.12%

For the various dropped candidates, their required percentage ranges from 77.22% in the case of Warren to 80.28% for anyone who has yet to gain delegates. I used the Green Papers for states that were fully allocated and 538 for states that needed projections from Tuesday.

[Sorenroy]

North Carolina

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	68	37	2	3	-
Green Papers	67	38	2	3	-
AP	67	37	2	4	-
NBC	64	34	2	1	9
CNN	61	34	-	-	15
ABC	61	32	-	-	17

Major uncertainties here are in CD 8, where my estimates show Sanders 219 votes short of another delegate (but with an uncertain breakdown in Lee county).  Bloomberg is also just shy of viability in CD 9 (137 votes short) and CD 13 (227 votes short, with the other half of Lee county).

Where are your numbers by Congressional District coming from? Something I always find frustrating is that it is at the discretion of the Board of Elections whether or not absentee one-stop voting is split back into its original precincts. So, it's hard to tell the results by sub-county level (and thus, for Congressional Districts that split counties) through the official site.

https://er.ncsbe.gov/