The Delegate Fight: 2020

[Erc]

Biden will also get 90% of the 775 or so superdelegates, netting another 600 delegates there.

So, his real delegate lead over Sanders is about 750 right now already ...

Not how it works anymore.

How does it work now ?

Superdelegates no longer have the right to cast decisive votes on the first ballot. They'll only be allowed to cast non-decisive votes on the first ballot if a candidate has received a majority of all delegates as a result of the primaries & caucuses (i.e. 2,376 pledged delegates going into the convention), or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention (which is no longer happening due to the events of this past week).

So if somebody goes into the convention with a simple majority of pledged delegates on the first ballet, they're the nominee and there's no superdelegates in the equation?

Yep.  Note two slight wrinkles here:

1) If a candidate goes into the convention with enough pledged delegates to form a majority of all delegates (super and regular), the superdelegates get to vote, but of course at that point they cannot change the outcome.

2) Pledged delegates are technically just pledged, not bound; they could in theory choose to support a different candidate than the one they are pledged to.  This is most applicable to the delegates for Klobuchar/Buttigieg/Bloomberg/Warren, who could put another candidate over the top on the first ballot before the supers come into play.  (Theoretically Biden or Sanders delegates could switch to the other candidate, but that is very unlikely barring either of them having a stroke or being otherwise rendered unfit for office; unlike the 2016 GOP side, Biden and Sanders have the right of approval over all their pledged delegates.)

[Erc]

Delegate uncertainties from Super Tuesday and beyond:

Alabama

Source	Biden	Sanders	TBD
Me	44	8	-
Green Papers	44	8	-
AP	44	8	-
NBC	42	7	3
CNN	39	7	6
ABC	39	7	6

We don't yet have the full breakdown by CD here.  The closest call is in CD3, where I estimate Sanders at 15.67%, above the viability threshold and with one delegate.

American Samoa

Everyone now agrees on the 4 Bloomberg - 2 Gabbard split here.  Bloomberg should be able to keep all his delegates here.

Arkansas

Source	Biden	Sanders	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	19	9	3	-
Green Papers	17	9	5	-
AP	17	9	5	-
NBC	16	9	5	1
CNN	15	9	5	2
ABC	14	8	5	4

I have reallocated Bloomberg's statewide delegates as he has suspended his campaign and endorsed Biden; no other source has done so yet.  There has been no indication from the Arkansas Democrats as to what they will do here, but the DNC is apparently trying to enforce this rule this year.

CD breakdowns are still estimates; the closest call is in CD 3, where I estimate Sanders to be behind Biden by only 262 votes.

California

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	170	221	14	10	-
Green Papers	170	221	14	10	-
AP	163	211	7	15	19
NBC	151	203	6	3	52
CNN	155	196	5	1	59
ABC	152	194	5	-	64

Vote-by-mail returns are still being compiled; counties have until April 3 to finish their counts.  It seems like the AP may have been too aggressive on some calls for Bloomberg, as the later returns have pushed him below viability in many districts.

Colorado

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	21	29	8	9	-
Green Papers	18	23	12	14	-
AP	12	21	7	9	18
NBC	15	23	5	8	16
CNN	17	25	-	3	22
ABC	15	23	4	5	20

I am following the Colorado Democratic Party's CD breakdowns and calls here.  They have not updated their results since March 7, however, so they may be out of date with the latest vote-by-mail results.

The Green Papers is not reallocating Bloomberg's and Warren's statewide delegates, despite the clear indication from the Colorado Democratic Party that they are doing so.

Maine

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	13	9	2	-	-
Green Papers	10	9	5	-	-
AP	11	9	4	-	-
NBC	9	9	2	-	4
CNN	9	9	2	-	4
ABC	9	9	-	-	6

The Green Papers has not bothered to do a proper CD breakdown, and has thus missed Warren going below viability in CD2.

Additionally, neither the Green Papers nor the AP have reallocated Warren's statewide delegates.

(to be continued...)

[Erc]

Massachusetts

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	42	33	16	-	-
Green Papers	34	31	26	-	-
AP	36	29	25	-	-
NBC	36	28	19	-	8
CNN	32	27	18	-	14
ABC	32	27	-	-	15

For CD results, I'm going with our benefactor Dave Leip here; my personal estimates have Warren ahead of Sanders instead for 2nd place in CD 4 by about 140 votes, but apparently Sanders is indeed in second with the full precinct breakdowns from Fall River and Raynham.

The Green Papers does not have good CD breakdowns, and (like all other sources) is not assuming Warren's statewide delegates get redistributed.  He has a fair point here; if there's anywhere where the local Democratic party isn't going to redistribute Warren's delegates, it's here.

Minnesota

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	41	29	5	-	-
Green Papers	38	27	10	-	-
AP	38	27	10	-	-
NBC	37	27	10	-	1
CNN	38	28	5	-	4
ABC	36	26	5	-	8

CD breakdowns are secure; major question is whether Warren's statewide delegates get reallocated.

North Carolina

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	68	37	2	3	-
Green Papers	67	38	2	3	-
AP	67	37	2	4	-
NBC	64	34	2	1	9
CNN	61	34	-	-	15
ABC	61	32	-	-	17

Major uncertainties here are in CD 8, where my estimates show Sanders 219 votes short of another delegate (but with an uncertain breakdown in Lee county).  Bloomberg is also just shy of viability in CD 9 (137 votes short) and CD 13 (227 votes short, with the other half of Lee county).

Oklahoma

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	21	13	1	2	-
Green Papers	21	13	1	2	-
AP	21	13	1	2	-
NBC	21	13	-	1	2
CNN	21	13	-	1	2
ABC	20	13	-	1	3

Some slow calls from the networks, but otherwise everyone's pretty much in agreement here.  (To be fair to them, Warren is at 15.06% in CD5).

Tennessee

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	36	22	1	5	-
Green Papers	36	22	1	5	-
AP	33	19	1	10	1
NBC	33	16	-	7	8
CNN	33	16	-	1	14
ABC	32	15	-	1	15

The Tennessee Democratic party has made it quite clear that Bloomberg is no longer a candidate and is not eligible for statewide delegates.  They have also published CD breakdowns.

Texas

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	111	102	5	10	-
Green Papers	111	102	5	10	-
AP	111	102	5	10	-
NBC	110	99	6	9	4
CNN	111	102	5	10	-
ABC	111	102	5	7	3

We're all pretty much following the very nice spreadsheet provided by the Texas Democratic Party here.

Utah

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	8	16	4	1	-
Green Papers	7	13	5	3	-
AP	5	13	-	2	9
NBC	-	9	-	-	20
CNN	2	9	-	-	18
ABC	-	9	-	-	20

The trifecta of concerns here:

1) Utah's a vote-by-mail state; counties might not finish counting until March 17.
2) CD breakdowns of what we have are uncertain.
3) Both Warren and Bloomberg hit 15% statewide, and sources vary on what they do with their delegates.

Vermont

Everyone agrees this is 11 Sanders - 5 Biden.

Virginia

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	67	31	1	-	-
Green Papers	67	31	1	-	-
AP	66	31	2	-	-
NBC	66	30	1	-	1
CNN	66	30	1	-	1
ABC	66	30	1	-	1

The AP still inexplicably has Warren getting 2 delegates out of the state.  In CD8, Warren placed second in Arlingotn, Falls Church, and Alexandria, but Sanders's margin in the CD8 portions of Fairfax as enough to secure 2nd place and to keep Warren to a single delegate.


March 10 results to come in a future post.

[Sorenroy]

North Carolina

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	68	37	2	3	-
Green Papers	67	38	2	3	-
AP	67	37	2	4	-
NBC	64	34	2	1	9
CNN	61	34	-	-	15
ABC	61	32	-	-	17

Major uncertainties here are in CD 8, where my estimates show Sanders 219 votes short of another delegate (but with an uncertain breakdown in Lee county).  Bloomberg is also just shy of viability in CD 9 (137 votes short) and CD 13 (227 votes short, with the other half of Lee county).

Where are your numbers by Congressional District coming from? Something I always find frustrating is that it is at the discretion of the Board of Elections whether or not absentee one-stop voting is split back into its original precincts. So, it's hard to tell the results by sub-county level (and thus, for Congressional Districts that split counties) through the official site.

https://er.ncsbe.gov/

[Erc]

North Carolina

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	Bloomberg	TBD
Me	68	37	2	3	-
Green Papers	67	38	2	3	-
AP	67	37	2	4	-
NBC	64	34	2	1	9
CNN	61	34	-	-	15
ABC	61	32	-	-	17

Major uncertainties here are in CD 8, where my estimates show Sanders 219 votes short of another delegate (but with an uncertain breakdown in Lee county).  Bloomberg is also just shy of viability in CD 9 (137 votes short) and CD 13 (227 votes short, with the other half of Lee county).

Where are your numbers by Congressional District coming from? Something I always find frustrating is that it is at the discretion of the Board of Elections whether or not absentee one-stop voting is split back into its original precincts. So, it's hard to tell the results by sub-county level (and thus, for Congressional Districts that split counties) through the official site.

https://er.ncsbe.gov/

Where my numbers come from (you can find my final estimates here, starting at row 108.):

If a county is fully within a district, all its precincts are in that district.

If a precinct also has votes recorded for a House primary (on either side), it's at least partially in the corresponding district.

CDs 3, 8, and 13 did not have a House primary, so it's a bit more complicated for Pitt, Moore, Harnett, Chatham, and Lee counties.

In Moore, Harnett, and Chatham counties, for any non-real precincts (absentee/provisional/one-stop), assume any drop-off between the Presidential and Congressional vote is from the other congressional district (8 for Moore/Harnett, 13 for Chatham).  Obviously, this misses real drop-off.

In precincts that are split between two CDs that each had Democratic House primaries, split the presidential votes in that precinct in proportion with the Democratic house primary.  In all other split precincts, and the entirety of Lee county (split between CDs 8 and 13), split the vote 50-50.  Obviously, this can't capture any differential in the results between the two parts of the precinct (or Lee county).

I could refine it a little bit more, but this is about as good as one can get without a better breakdown in Lee County and the sub-precinct results in split / non-real precincts.

I think my NC estimate is better than the Green Papers'; it's possible the AP has some inside information, but they screw up a lot too (look at their Virginia results).

[Erc]

I was able to refine my Lee County numbers a bit more, but there's little change.

Sanders only improves by 3 votes in CD 8.

Bloomberg is now only 178 votes shy of viability in CD 13, a 49-vote improvement.  It's possible the one-stop results could put him over?  But I don't have any better insights for how to handle this than you.

[Erc]

Idaho

I don't have good CD breakdowns for Ada County, but it's still pretty clear that the final breakdown is 11 Biden - 9 Sanders; all sources agree on this.  The only delegate in question is one in CD 2, and given that Biden won Ada county as a whole, it's almost certain he wins CD 2 (including the Boise part of Ada county).

Michigan

Source	Biden	Sanders	TBD
Me	73	52	-
Green Papers	73	52	-
AP	72	52	1
NBC	71	47	7
CNN	72	47	6
ABC	72	49	4

Michigan has provided good CD breakdowns.  The absolute knife-edge call here (presumably the one still uncalled by the AP) is in CD 12, where Biden is up by only 17 votes over Sanders with a delegate on the line for the winner.

North Dakota

Everyone agrees on the 8 Sanders - 6 Biden call here.

Washington

Source	Biden	Sanders	Warren	TBD
Me	45	42	2	-
Green Papers	45	42	2	-
AP	37	37	-	15
NBC	39	39	-	11
CNN	30	30	-	29
ABC	-	-	-	89

Washington is a vote-by-mail state, so this one's going to be slow; I imagine COVID-19 has slowed down the count as well.  Results so far have Warren healthily above viability in CD 7; we'll see if that changes as more votes come in.  Counties were scheduled to be done certifying their results by March 20 (this Friday); we'll see if that holds up.

Northern Marianas

Everyone but CNN agrees on the 4 Sanders - 2 Biden split here; CNN appears to have forgotten about it, perhaps?

Mississippi and Missouri will be analyzed in a later post.

[Erc]

Summary of the COVID-19 effects so far and their possible interactions with delegate counts and DNC rules:

Wyoming: Has cancelled the county caucuses that were to choose delegates to the state convention, which as of now is still scheduled for June 6.  Since the state convention was to allocate and select the national convention delegates without regard to the vote-by-mail results, it's unclear what is going to happen here.  It is possible the allocation will now be tied to the vote-by-mail results (likely through a Wyoming version of SDEs), and/or perhaps the delegates to the state convention will just be the delegates to the previous state convention.

Georgia: Moved from March 24 to May 19.  Could receive a 20% bonus to its delegates from the move.

Ohio: Moved from March 17 to June 2.  Could receive a 20% bonus to its delegates from the move, though this is complicated by Ohio's delegate selection process; it slated its possible district delegates for each presidential preference at caucuses back on January 7.  If they were to receive a bonus, more delegates would likely have to be chosen at some point.

Louisiana: moved from April 4 to June 20.  This is after the DNC's window for holding primaries (which closes June 9), so they are in theory subject to a 50% delegate penalty.  June 20 is also the last possible day to select delegates, which makes that timing tight.

Kentucky: moved from May 19 to June 23.  This after the DNC's window for primaries (closes June 9) and delegate selection (closes June 20).  They are in theory subject to a 50% timing penalty.

Puerto Rico is actively looking to delay its primary from March 29 to April 26; it this should come to pass (the appropriate legislation has at this time passed the Puerto Rico Senate), Puerto Rico may be eligible for a 10% timing bonus in delegates.

Tennessee is holding its District Conventions (which were to choose its district delegates, including some for Warren and Bloomberg) on March 21 via teleconferencing instead of in person.

Update: Maryland has pushed back its primary from April 28 to June 2.   This could change Maryland's number of delegates, as it could lose the 15% bonus for being in a regional cluster (with DE, PA, NY, CT, & RI), but it could increase its timing bonus from 10% to 20%, for a net loss of 3 delegates.  If Pennsylvania or Delaware switch to June 2, they would form a new regional cluster (with DC, which was already scheduled for June 2); note that in the former case, Ohio would be added to the regional cluster as well.

[Erc]

Mississippi

Source	Biden	Sanders	TBD
Me	34	2	-
Green Papers	34	2	-
AP	34	2	-
NBC	32	2	2
CNN	30	1	5
ABC	32	-	4

Sanders only gets to viability in CD 1 (15.9%) and CD 4 (17.9%), missing it statewide (14.8%), in CD 2 (13.4%), and in CD 3 (14.3%).

[Erc]

The Green Papers estimates:

160-59 in Florida
95-60 in Illinois
39-28 in Arizona

That's a net 147 delegates from yesterday, on top of his pre-existing lead of 159 delegates, for a total lead of over 300 delegates.

That's a larger lead than Clinton had after Indiana (in May) in 2016.

In an ordinary year, I might think about wrapping up coverage now...but it's not an ordinary year (and I have more time on my hands than usual).

What's coming up in the calendar?

This Saturday, March 21, Tennessee will choose its district delegates, including 5 Bloomberg and 1 Warren delegate.  Due to COVID-19, these conventions will be held by teleconference.

Next Monday, March 23, Democrats Abroad will announce the results of its Global Presidential Primary, in which voting had wrapped up on March 10.

March 29 was to see Puerto Rico's primary; it is overwhelmingly likely this will be postponed to April 26, however.

Next up is April 4, with Hawaii, Alaska, and Wyoming holding their contests.

Wyoming mailed a ballot to every registered Democrat in the state; ballots would have to be postmarked by March 20 (this Friday).  One can also drop off the ballot in person (and pick one up first if you did not receive one) on March 28 and on April 4; voting closes at noon on April 4.

Hawaii mailed a ballot to every registered Democrat in the state; they must be postmarked by March 28.  There are plans for in-person voting on April 4; these do not appear to have been cancelled as of yet.

Alaska has no-excuse absentee voting for its primary; I think these were mailed out automatically to every registered Democrat, but I am not 100% sure about this.  Deadline to send in the mail ballot is March 24.  There is also in-person voting on April 4 which does not appear to have been cancelled.

Oklahoma was to hold its state convention on April 4 as well; this has been postponed due to COVID-19.

After that is Wisconsin's state-run primary on April 7.

[Erc]

Missouri

Source	Biden	Sanders	TBD
Me	44	24	-
Green Papers	44	24	-
AP	44	24	-
NBC	40	22	6
CNN	36	19	13
ABC	38	20	10

No calls are exceptionally close here.

[Erc]

Gabbard has dropped out; she gets to keep her two delegates from American Samoa as they have already been selected.

[Erc]

More possible delegate interactions from primary delays:

Connecticut moving back from April 28 to June 2 moves them from the 10% bonus tier to the 20% bonus tier, but loses them the 15% regional cluster bonus (unless New York also moves to June 2).  This would cost Connecticut 2 delegates.

Rhode Island hasn't moved its primary yet, but Connecticut leaving the April 28 date means they are no longer in a regional cluster, and they could lose 3 delegates as a result.

Indiana moving back from May 5 to June 2 doesn't actually do anything; it was already in the 20% bonus tier.  Indiana and Ohio are now both on June 2, though, so if Pennsylvania (April 28) or West Virginia (May 12) move to June 2, they would form a "regional cluster" (along with Maryland and DC) and could be eligible for an additional 15% bonus delegates.

As always, it is unclear whether the DNC will take any of these timing shifts into account for the number of delegates each state is entitled to, or whether the timings and delegate counts are considered to have been locked in earlier in the year.  This is of course separate from the question of whether Louisiana and Kentucky will be penalized for their super-late contests.

[Erc]

Puerto Rico has officially moved back to April 26, and could move back further than that without further legislative action.  The April 26 date could net it a 10% timing bonus (4 delegates).

Pennsylvania looks increasingly likely to postpone to June 2, though legislation is still pending.  Pennsylvania switching to June 2 might not only increase its own timing bonus, but create a big new regional cluster on June 2.  Pennsylvania was already in a cluster, and gains a 10% timing bonus and 14 delegates.  Indiana gains a 15% cluster bonus and 9 delegates.  Ohio gains a 15% cluster bonus, in addition to a 20% timing bonus for its delay, for a total of 41 delegates.Maryland retains its cluster bonus and gets a 10% timing bonus, for 7 delegates.  DC gains a 15% cluster bonus for 2 delegates.  New Jersey gains a 15% cluster bonus for 14 delegates.  Delaware would lose its cluster bonus and 2 delegates.  New York would lose its cluster bonus and 29 delegates.  There's also been some chatter in New York about pushing back to June 23, which would be in 50% penalty territory.

Democrats Abroad are scheduled to announce their results today (voting closed March 10), so be on the lookout for that.

Tennessee held its District Conventions via teleconference on Saturday; they selected the 5 Bloomberg and 1 Warren delegate who will be free agents at the convention.  I have not been able so far to find out the identities of these delegates.

[Oryxslayer]

Bernie officially won Democrats abroad. Biden still gets delegates though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

ABC showing superdelegates already

[brucejoel99]

ABC showing superdelegates already

At this rate, they'll probably be allowed to vote on the first ballot.

[Erc]

With Delaware and Rhode Island pushed back to June 2, and Pennsylvania almost certainly to follow (legislation having passed the PA House), we've now got a big set of states that day.

Summary of possible delegate changes:

State	New Date	Change in Delegates
Puerto Rico	April 26	+4
Ohio	April 28	+12
Georgia	May 19	+18
Hawaii	May 22	+2
DC	Jun 2	+2
New Jersey	Jun 2	+14
Connecticut	Jun 2	-2
Delaware	Jun 2	+1
Maryland	Jun 2	+7
Pennsylvania	Jun 2	+14
Rhode Island	Jun 2	-1
Louisiana	Jun 20	-27
Kentucky	Jun 23	-27
New York	Jun 23	-147

This post is being updated as more states shift; New York's move means that we're probably approaching our final calendar for now, though, up to a second move by Puerto Rico.

[Bidenworth2020]

With Delaware and Rhode Island pushed back to June 2, and Pennsylvania almost certainly to follow (legislation having passed the PA House), we've now got a big set of states that day.

Summary of possible delegate changes:

State	New Date	Change in Delegates
Puerto Rico	April 26	+4
Ohio	April 28	+12
Georgia	May 19	+18
Hawaii	May 22	+2
DC	Jun 2	+2
New Jersey	Jun 2	+14
Connecticut	Jun 2	-2
Delaware	Jun 2	+1
Maryland	Jun 2	+7
Pennsylvania	Jun 2	+14
Rhode Island	Jun 2	-1
Louisiana	Jun 20	-27
Kentucky	Jun 23	-27
New York	Jun 23	-147

This post is being updated as more states shift; New York's move means that we're probably approaching our final calendar for now, though, up to a second move by Puerto Rico.

Wouldn't Wisconsin be getting a huge boost in delegates?

[Erc]

With Delaware and Rhode Island pushed back to June 2, and Pennsylvania almost certainly to follow (legislation having passed the PA House), we've now got a big set of states that day.

Summary of possible delegate changes:

State	New Date	Change in Delegates
Puerto Rico	April 26	+4
Ohio	April 28	+12
Georgia	May 19	+18
Hawaii	May 22	+2
DC	Jun 2	+2
New Jersey	Jun 2	+14
Connecticut	Jun 2	-2
Delaware	Jun 2	+1
Maryland	Jun 2	+7
Pennsylvania	Jun 2	+14
Rhode Island	Jun 2	-1
Louisiana	Jun 20	-27
Kentucky	Jun 23	-27
New York	Jun 23	-147

This post is being updated as more states shift; New York's move means that we're probably approaching our final calendar for now, though, up to a second move by Puerto Rico.

Wouldn't Wisconsin be getting a huge boost in delegates?

Wisconsin is still on its original April 7 date, and thus there shouldn't be any change in its delegate count.

[Erc]

Mods can feel free to unsticky.  See you next time, if there is a next time.

[brucejoel99]

Mods can feel free to unsticky.  See you next time, if there is a next time.

Coming in 2024: the 1st Congress of the Republican Party of Trumpea, held to unanimously nominate Donald Trump, Jr.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Are we getting results from any states tomorrow?

[Mr. Morden]

Are we getting results from any states tomorrow?

Yes, Alaska:

https://www.adn.com/politics/2020/04/08/sanders-remains-on-alaska-democrats-presidential-primary-ballot-as-mail-in-vote-deadline-nears/

The party mailed 71,106 ballots in March to registered Democrats. Any registered Democrat who did not receive a ballot may download and print one, then mail it. If it arrives by Friday, it will be counted.

Final results are expected Saturday.

[2016]

Sanders may have withdrawn. That being said Biden cannot officially clinch the Democaric Primaries. He is rougly 750 Delegates short and there aren't enough Delegates in April & May to reach 1,991.