VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Pollster]

Can we merge this with the other VA Gov thread?

[jamestroll]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

[RogueBeaver]

TMac said yesterday he'll decide after November, presumably in case Biden wins and offers him Commerce or something.

[Pollster]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

I would guess very well. Virginia isn't a state I work in (though it will probably be assigned to me if I move there, which I'm currently planning on) so I haven't seen any numbers on her. But I imagine that her becoming the first Black female governor in America would be an appealing point to many Dem primary voters, especially given the complications with Northam and Herring, and her youthfulness/likely generational change message would do well for her against McAuliffe if he gets in.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

I would guess very well. Virginia isn't a state I work in (though it will probably be assigned to me if I move there, which I'm currently planning on) so I haven't seen any numbers on her. But I imagine that her becoming the first Black female governor in America would be an appealing point to many Dem primary voters, especially given the complications with Northam and Herring, and her youthfulness/likely generational change message would do well for her against McAuliffe if he gets in.

VA in 2020/2021 is different than the VA I grew up and voted in but I'd guess that while Foy would be a compelling candidate in a general she'd still probably lose to T-Mac. VA isn't a machine state but Dems there have a lot of party loyalty; there aren't very many Dems in leadership outside of the party mainstream or who haven't been in the party for a while. With gov experience McAuliffe would still be a heavy favorite in that race and I think he'd actually be able to negate some of Foy's possible advantage with AAs if you discount Richmond.

[Skill and Chance]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

I would guess very well. Virginia isn't a state I work in (though it will probably be assigned to me if I move there, which I'm currently planning on) so I haven't seen any numbers on her. But I imagine that her becoming the first Black female governor in America would be an appealing point to many Dem primary voters, especially given the complications with Northam and Herring, and her youthfulness/likely generational change message would do well for her against McAuliffe if he gets in.

VA in 2020/2021 is different than the VA I grew up and voted in but I'd guess that while Foy would be a compelling candidate in a general she'd still probably lose to T-Mac. VA isn't a machine state but Dems there have a lot of party loyalty; there aren't very many Dems in leadership outside of the party mainstream or who haven't been in the party for a while. With gov experience McAuliffe would still be a heavy favorite in that race and I think he'd actually be able to negate some of Foy's possible advantage with AAs if you discount Richmond.

This.  Progressive vaguely outsider candidates have almost always flopped in VA Dem primaries.  See Tom Perriello 2017, also Aneesh Chopra and Justin Fairfax running as the progressive alternatives to establishment Northam and Herring in 2013.

Also, while it's not quite Tammany Hall, the one (consecutive) term governor system with unlimited terms for LG and AG definitely encourages "you'll get your turn" machine politics and staying quiet about scandals/corruption.  That's a big part of how Northam and Fairfax got as far as they did without their scandals coming out until years after they already won statewide.

T Mac was assumed to be a scandal machine at the time he ran, but he was probably the best governor of VA in recent times.

[President Johnson]

TMac said yesterday he'll decide after November, presumably in case Biden wins and offers him Commerce or something.

Hope he runs. Go TMac! He would also make a great Chief of Staff for President Biden. I think that or commerce would be excellent positions for him.

[Pollster]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

I would guess very well. Virginia isn't a state I work in (though it will probably be assigned to me if I move there, which I'm currently planning on) so I haven't seen any numbers on her. But I imagine that her becoming the first Black female governor in America would be an appealing point to many Dem primary voters, especially given the complications with Northam and Herring, and her youthfulness/likely generational change message would do well for her against McAuliffe if he gets in.

VA in 2020/2021 is different than the VA I grew up and voted in but I'd guess that while Foy would be a compelling candidate in a general she'd still probably lose to T-Mac. VA isn't a machine state but Dems there have a lot of party loyalty; there aren't very many Dems in leadership outside of the party mainstream or who haven't been in the party for a while. With gov experience McAuliffe would still be a heavy favorite in that race and I think he'd actually be able to negate some of Foy's possible advantage with AAs if you discount Richmond.

This.  Progressive vaguely outsider candidates have almost always flopped in VA Dem primaries.  See Tom Perriello 2017, also Aneesh Chopra and Justin Fairfax running as the progressive alternatives to establishment Northam and Herring in 2013.

Also, while it's not quite Tammany Hall, the one (consecutive) term governor system with unlimited terms for LG and AG definitely encourages "you'll get your turn" machine politics and staying quiet about scandals/corruption.  That's a big part of how Northam and Fairfax got as far as they did without their scandals coming out until years after they already won statewide.

T Mac was assumed to be a scandal machine at the time he ran, but he was probably the best governor of VA in recent times.

I agree with both of you - and a lot of this has to do as well with the sheer number of party insiders who live in Arlington and work in DC. McAuliffe likely the favorite if he runs, but probably not prohibitively so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

has anyone ever served non-consecutive terms as VA governor, besides one guy whose name I forgot in the 1970s-1980s? Is the state's political culture accepting of the concept in the abstract?

[MaxQue]

has anyone ever served non-consecutive terms as VA governor, besides one guy whose name I forgot in the 1970s-1980s? Is the state's political culture accepting of the concept in the abstract?

It's accepting, the very first governor having done that (then, the rule was 3 terms of 1 year and then 4 years ban). Patrick Henry did 1776-1779 and 1784-1786. James Monroe (1799-1802, 1811 (resigned 4 months into his term to become Secretary of State) also served non-consecutive terms under that rule.

In recent years, only Mills Godwin did it( 1965-1969 and 1973-1977 (the former one as Democrat, the latter as Republican))

[Skill and Chance]

has anyone ever served non-consecutive terms as VA governor, besides one guy whose name I forgot in the 1970s-1980s? Is the state's political culture accepting of the concept in the abstract?

It's accepting, the very first governor having done that (then, the rule was 3 terms of 1 year and then 4 years ban). Patrick Henry did 1776-1779 and 1784-1786. James Monroe (1799-1802, 1811 (resigned 4 months into his term to become Secretary of State) also served non-consecutive terms under that rule.

In recent years, only Mills Godwin did it( 1965-1969 and 1973-1977 (the former one as Democrat, the latter as Republican))

From 1925 to Mills Godwin's 1st term in 1965, the Byrd Organization political machine designated who would run for governor and cleared the Dem primary in advance for that person.  General elections were not competitive until 1965 as the Byrd Organization had managed to prevent virtually all of their opponents from being eligible to vote with a very complicated poll tax.  The Bryd Organization was also very fiscally conservative compared to other Dixiecrat machines, which may have facilitated a fast party switch for Godwin.  In between Godwin's 2 terms, a Republican won for the 1st time in the 20th century.

[jamestroll]

I am shocked that there are not multiple threads on Virginia 2021 Elections but a few interesting pieces of news.

1) Due to the delay in the census it is possible that Virginia will have to hold house of delegate elections under the current maps in the 2021 elections but may have to hold elections again in 2022 under a newly drawn map. Some in the GOP may hope that a Biden midterm may give them two chances to retake the House of Delegates. Lol, probably would not happen but they have a 10% chance I guess. The State Senate would be unimpacted as they do not hold elections until 2023.

2) Terry McAuliffe looks like he is in it to run for Governor. He probably clears the Democratic field but we all know how bringing back the past works. He could be defeated in the primary. There is no current Republican who would be able to be elected in Virginia in the current climate. Jill Vogel is tossed around at times. To put in perspective how crazy the GOP based is: Only one Republican in the State Senate voted in favor of banning gay conversion therapy I believe.

Be prepared for many many many Virginia threads over the next few years. We may need to create a new Virginia sub board to accomodate.

[Left Wing]

Herring and Foy have to drop out if McAuliffe enters the race. Fairfax just cannot win.

[Suburbia]

Herring and Foy have to drop out if McAuliffe enters the race. Fairfax just cannot win.

McAuliffe should angle for a Biden administration spot....

[Blair]

Ugh I'll take McAuliffe purely he can be trusted to win & he wasn't particually awful as a Governor... my hope is that it would allow some less problematic people to become Lt.Gov & AG.

A question to VA posters- has there ever been an effort to scrap the term limits? I can never work out if they're a stupid idea or not (looking at the past 5 governors they all seem relatively sane compared to the usual freak shows you get)

[President Johnson]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

[SevenEleven]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

[Skill and Chance]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

I actually think running McAuliffe is more important to VA Dems if Biden wins.  He's literally the only person who has won VA-GOV with a president of the same party in the 50 years since the Solid South days.  That's quite a calling card. 

[President Johnson]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

[President Johnson]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

I actually think running McAuliffe is more important to VA Dems if Biden wins.  He's literally the only person who has won VA-GOV with a president of the same party in the 50 years since the Solid South days.  That's quite a calling card. 

Fair point, but the Virginia of 2013 was different from what the 2021 one is going to be. A more blue state for that matter. It was a unique feat back then, though it's noteworthy the libertarian candidate drew over 6% of the vote at the time and T-Mac ecked out a narrow 47.8-45.2% win. A win is a win, but the race may have gone differently in a binary choice.

[Roll Roons]

T-Mac will win this if he wants. I think he'll wait until after the November election and see what happens. If Biden is elected, he will probably consider his options on how the state of the race is and which, if any, job is offered to him. He'd make a great Chief of Staff, Treasury or Commerce secretary.

I actually think running McAuliffe is more important to VA Dems if Biden wins.  He's literally the only person who has won VA-GOV with a president of the same party in the 50 years since the Solid South days.  That's quite a calling card. 

Eh, that was more because of Cooch's weakness and extremism than any particular strength of McAuliffe's. Virginia (particularly NoVA and the Richmond area) has shifted left since 2013. Given the VAGOP's likelihood of nominating a crazy, anyone other than Fairfax should be able to win.

[SevenEleven]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

[President Johnson]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

Yes, they should move to midterm years, as Los Angeles as done by moving the mayoral election from 2021 into 2022, extending Garcetti's current term.

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe, and then give Northam a second term after that.

The one term limit should be abolished. It's a relic from the 19th century, where governors often had a weak position in many southern states. All other states have changed the law, Virginia is the only one left. Along with Vermont and New Hampshire, who have two year terms (which hardly makes sense).

I agree. Also, eliminate these stupid odd year elections at state and municipal levels.

Yes, they should move to midterm years, as Los Angeles as done by moving the mayoral election from 2021 into 2022, extending Garcetti's current term.

I believe Kentucky is considering this as well?  In any case, odd year elections, 2 year terms , and 1 term limits for governors all have a very 19th century vibe.   

Odd year elections tend to slow national trends.  Now that the party gaining ground controls the legislature in both states, I wonder if we will see them send amendments to the voters?  Kentucky considered moving gubernatorial elections to presidential years, but the proposal got shelved in 2018.

[jamestroll]

I remember some people saying that Virginia could flip back GOP because the GOP held the Sheriff's office in Loudoun County, kept a Fairfax County Board of Supervisors seat, and the total legislative vote in Virginia Beach leaned Republican.

As if candidate quality and local politics does not matter. It still does... but every major indicator shows that Biden will win the state by around 10 or more in November and even in a Biden Administration the GOP has very little chance of picking up the gubernatorial seat.