VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, if Biden wins in 2020 this may be Republicans one shot at winning the Governor's mansion for a long time.

Not happening.

[Epaminondas]

That was obviously made before the revelations that Fairfax is a serial rapist.

Poor choice of words. Casually throwing around the words "Serial rapist" is actually making the Republican's slander work easier for them.

You may not like to hear it, but there's a wide range of behaviours between "bad dates" and "tracking down women at night". Calling Justin Fairfax a serial rapist erases it, and absolves Trump's abusive lecherous groping in comparison.

[beaver2.0]

That tweet is going to do anything but help.

[they don't love you like i love you]

That was obviously made before the revelations that Fairfax is a serial rapist.

Poor choice of words. Casually throwing around the words "Serial rapist" is actually making the Republican's slander work easier for them.

You may not like to hear it, but there's a wide range of behaviours between "bad dates" and "tracking down women at night". Calling Justin Fairfax a serial rapist erases it, and absolves Trump's abusive lecherous groping in comparison.

[QAnonKelly]

Bruh what the hell is wrong with this man?

[President Johnson]

Fairfax self-immolates.

https://twitter.com/FairfaxJustin/status/1234294479563128834

You absolutely love to see when someone says that a black politician is the "son" of a white politician... absolutely horrible look with zero historical appreciation. I'd gladly take another McAuliffe term over this buffoon.

The guy should immediately resign from office. How someone supposed to hold office and run for even higher officer when there are serious charges of rape? Come on, man.

[Idaho Conservative]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

The issue is that he has significant support in the Black community. The VA Democratic Party doesn't want and cannot afford to alienate the Black community.

There are black candidates without sexual assault allegations.

[brucejoel99]

The VA Dems need to declare war on Fairfax and play super hard ball. Like "blacklisting" anyone who accepts a job with his campaign or promising to back primary challengers against state legislators who endorse him. Make it clear if anyone supports that vile, sick f[inks]ing piece of sh!t in any way, shape or form, they are now an "unperson" who'll have no political future.

The issue is that he has significant support in the Black community. The VA Democratic Party doesn't want and cannot afford to alienate the Black community.

There are black candidates without sexual assault allegations.

Levar Stoney, for instance.

[KaiserDave]

My god

[Oryxslayer]

Ignoring Fairfax for a moment, Biden called TMac the once and future governor of VA at his rally yesterday, in case those plans were not clear enough for everyone to see.

[Oryxslayer]

In more serious news:

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1236810516095471617

The stronger the candidate, TMac and Filler-Corn, the longer they wait.

[Blair]

Am the I the only one who finds it baffling that in a State which is probably the best advert for the Democrats nationally (minus the trifecta of allegations) that they're going to run an ex-Governor & Clinton Bundler.

The Democrats have really suffered from a lack of quality Governors who could run for President in say 2024 or 2028.

[Oryxslayer]

Am the I the only one who finds it baffling that in a State which is probably the best advert for the Democrats nationally (minus the trifecta of allegations) that they're going to run an ex-Governor & Clinton Bundler.

The Democrats have really suffered from a lack of quality Governors who could run for President in say 2024 or 2028.

Uhhh Whitmer, Polis, and Newsom are all A-Tier presidential candidates for 2024.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn. This field is really getting crowded which is dissapointing because I wanted Levar Stoney to get in. He could have real national talent.

[brucejoel99]

Damn. This field is really getting crowded which is dissapointing because I wanted Levar Stoney to get in. He could have real national talent.

2025.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

With hindsight I def would have supported Vogel over him.

[Virginiá]

Damn. This field is really getting crowded which is dissapointing because I wanted Levar Stoney to get in. He could have real national talent.

Isn't he the mayor who tried to sell his city out on some useless, massively expensive (hundreds of millions) sports complex backed by Dominion?

[Pollster]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

[Non Swing Voter]

The VA GOP still hasn't learned.

This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but I’m of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, there’s already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.

spot on analysis.  this kind of thing only tends to work where it's a totally one sided state and therefore the primary electorate of the minority party is either fairly similar to the other party (MA) or is reasonable and settles for a moderate (MD).  Virginia is kind of that sweet spot where one party has a clear advantage but it's not so overwhelming that the minority party comes to the center. 

It's going to get really bad for republicans going forward too.  After redistricting there's no doubt that downstate is going to cede a lot more power to NoVa and there's almost no area in the growth areas of NoVa where Republicans seem to even be able to carve out a district.  So that's basically going to just add a bunch more liberal state legislators.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

When we talk about having Hogan/Baker type candidates in any state it's worth noting that we only have these people in 2020 due to rare and likely non-replicable circumstances from 2014.

These two are only around in 2018 because they had a term in 2014, and they lucked out in 2014 because they caught

1a) a wave R year
1b) sufficient support from suburban voters
2) dogsh*t-tier opponents (M*rtha C**kley and *ntonio Br*wn)

(1a) could certainly happen in a Biden administration but (1b) is really unlikely in the Trump era (as others noted the GOP base now is different) and (2) doesn't happen very often.

So saying VA could elect a Hogan/Baker type Republican in the Trump-era ignores a lot of context and a lot of pieces that need to correctly fall into place. Arguably Gillespie would have been a Hogan-type chamber of commerce-type R but the politics of 2017 were different enough from the politics of 2014 that it was obvious he needed to run on MS-13. If Hogan and Baker were running for a first term in 2018 they probably would have had the same thing happen to them.

[jamestroll]

Under a Biden Midterm, the 2021 VA elections from Governor to county level offices will show how much of the suburban swing was a reaction or Trump or genuine trends. Especially in the Richmond and Virginia Beach area and Loudoun County to a lesser extent.

Now, no matter how many times you say it, Nova was not a Romney Clinton region. It was an Obama-Clinton region with Loudoun County even fitting that definition, barely.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I can't see how the Democrats don't suffer somewhat from the follies affecting Messrs Northam, Fairfax, and Herring.  How badly that will hurt remains to be seen.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I can't see how the Democrats don't suffer somewhat from the follies affecting Messrs Northam, Fairfax, and Herring.  How badly that will hurt remains to be seen.

Northam is term limited and Fairfax will lose the primaries. With the bench VA has Herring is effectively a non-story outside of AG (not to mention he has the mildest offense of these three).

It's hard to quantify but arguably Ds payed a Northam-tax in the 2019 elections, but it was small enough that they still took over both chambers. If they underperform this in 2021 it's probably because a the Biden administration is, uh, not going well instead of anything due to these three. But unless there is something truly shocking which lets the GOP rebound in the suburbs it won't be enough to let Rs win this race.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I can't see how the Democrats don't suffer somewhat from the follies affecting Messrs Northam, Fairfax, and Herring.  How badly that will hurt remains to be seen.

Basically none, considering all three will be a non-factor by the 2021 race (neither Fairfax nor Herring are winning the primary). Especially considering the fact that the most damaging potential folly either party could make would be the Republican primary electorate picking Amanda Chase as its standard bear for the gubernatorial, which seems like a real possibility. She makes Corey Stewart look sane.  

[Non Swing Voter]

I can't see how the Democrats don't suffer somewhat from the follies affecting Messrs Northam, Fairfax, and Herring.  How badly that will hurt remains to be seen.

The Democrats would still win with any of these candidates.  Democrats just need to run a pro-capitalist moderate (to somewhat liberal on social issues) to win Virginia now.  A socialist like Bernie would obviously not do, but a moderate, even with personal issues, has a substantial advantage in the state.  NoVa's margins have become too overwhelming to overcome downstate.  The only way for a Republican to win is to cut into those margins.  The only way to cut into those margins is for an unacceptable democrat to run.  But the personal issues of those three don't = unacceptable for NoVa voters.