Ohio redistricting thread

[dpmapper]

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 

[dpmapper]

Good point.  I cleaned things up a little; the Dayton district, the Cincy district, and the yellow district all move a hair left but still in the same categories. 

[dpmapper]

Yes, I was not making efforts to be "fair" in this, it was more of an exercise in how innocuous-looking I could get a map to be and still be very GOP-favorable. 

Hamilton has to be split so "unnecessarily split" is not exactly the right phrase.  "Unnecessarily attached to other counties" perhaps. 

[dpmapper]

The NE district really should take Portage county instead of Youngstown.  That makes it essentially 5 whole counties (very clean and defensible), and lean- to likely-R, rather than dooming Joyce.  Then you can stick Youngstown in your 6th district.  Akron can pair with parts of Stark County instead. 

Also, why split Cleveland?  Yeah, the lines are a little nicer-looking if you cut it in half but nobody can argue with keeping it whole, and it would probably be better for the 9th, no? 

[dpmapper]

Looks like just one of the two races they needed, so it's 4-3 GOP?

[dpmapper]

Republicans should not crack Cinci IMO.  Just draw clean 12-3 map.

Why not?  If it doesn't endanger the other Cincy-area district, they may as well.  You don't even have to trail it out to the east beyond Clermont County, as there are still plenty of very red areas of Hamilton.  Those plus Cincinnati city plus Clermont gives a lean R district, and then the rest of Hamilton can be added to Butler/Warren for a safe R. 

[dpmapper]

Here's one that not only fits the legal parameters, but also keeps every GOP representative in his district (except perhaps Wenstrup or Chabot, both within Hamilton County). 



Cincinnati district (Chabot) is Trump+3 in 2020
Green (Wenstrup) and purple (Turner) nearby are Trump +10
Latta vs Kaptur in the northwest, mostly Latta's turf.  Trump +11.6
Davidson gets yellow district, Trump +34.  It's ugly because Jim Jordan lives in the southern end of the red district (Trump+24)
Gonzalez gets lavender near Cleveland, Joyce the dark navy blue in the northeast, both Trump +10 or 11
Akron district is open, Trump +5.
Gibbs gets grey Canton district, adds Youngstown: Trump +20
Bill Johnson for light blue Ohio River district, Trump +33
Balderson's green district is Trump +24
and the last pink district (tbd in the special election) is Trump+21

[dpmapper]

The dissents that would have struck down the 2012 maps relied on specific clauses in the requirements for districts (that they not divide too many counties etc.)  Under what clause would the OH court strike this down?  Note that there is no general "fairness" clause.  

Obviously the commission would have to fail, and the legislature unable to create a bipartisan map, in order for this to come into play, and it would only be in effect for 4 years.  So I don't expect that this map will actually come to pass, there's more incentive to play nice.  But this is the worst-case scenario if you're a Dem.

[dpmapper]

Some of those cuts are just to avoid cutting a city, but fair enough.  In any case they are all trivial to fix and don't affect much of anything.