Ohio redistricting thread

[Badger]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

Interesting map. I'm surprised that after splitting Franklin County more or less geographically even on an East-West divide that District 3 and 15 are similar in population after adding on all those extra counties, all of which are not rural, such as Fairfield which is fairly populated.

In Northeast Ohio I've always wondered if one could make basically an Akron-Canton district, and then a purely Northeast Ohio District basically running from Youngstown through Portage east and west and then North to the coast with lake in Ashtabula? Maybe I am just in denial about how far places like Trumbull and Mahoning County have shifted, even Beyond their infatuation with Trump in 2016, but I can't help it thinking that those districts would be reasonably split. I would assume that the Akron-Canton District would actually be democratic-leaning, but maybe not. I'm surprised that your version of 14 that basically includes 3 traditionally Democratic counties plus the city of Akron would still only be lean d.

I like connecting Dayton to Springfield and always thought that should be the basis of any District down there. I always thought that little bridge should maybe reach out to Yellow Springs to include the one I think semi liberal hippie Haven in Greene County I was wondering if you considered including the Beavercreek portion of Greene County in the district, maybe as a substitute for that little sperm running into Butler County?

I am surprised that Northwest Ohio district is so swingy. I would have thought that, given Lucas county is by far the biggest population base there, plus Ottawa and wood counties are relatively, that the remaining rural counties would not bring this close to an even pvi.

Nice that you finally created a Hamilton County District, but I think everyone including even though Ohio Republican party realizes that that's inevitable. I think Steve Chabot is dead man walking once that happens.

[Badger]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9a223f05-99f0-4792-8893-167fdbe0a923
this is my take on the "fair map" concept.



Unlike in previous maps in this thread, Franklin County's surplus population goes into a CD lying south instead of north. The entirety of the doughnut around Columbus is contained in three seats. I also ditched the "Mistake by the Lake" and created a new swing district centered on Lorain County. CD-11 gets rid of the stupid arm down to Akron, and the bulk of this territory goes to the Youngstown district. There are only three true swing districts - the 7th (D+0.23), the 10th (R+2.77), and the 15th (R+3.73). The 5th (D+2.7) might fall in a good GOP year, especially if it is open. Contrary to what one might expect, the more Dem part of Akron being placed in the 14th was done as much for aestetics as it was for partisan reasons, as it just looks cleaner having a lakeshore seat (which also conveniently soaks up the rest of Cuyahoga and all of Summit as was needed, for sake of compactness), and a Canton+southern Summit+Medina seat. This leaves most of Akron with nowhere else to go.
One interesting facet of this map is the fact that it has 4 large rural seats covering 66% of the state's land area.

My general ratings for each of these CDs is as follows: (Tossup/Lean/Likely/Solid)
1: Lean D
2: Solid R
3: Solid D
4: Solid R
5: Lean D
6: Solid R
7: Tossup
8: Solid R
9: Likely R
10: Lean R
11: Solid D
12: Solid R
13: Likely R
14: Lean D
15: Tossup

Interesting map. I'm surprised that after splitting Franklin County more or less geographically even on an East-West divide that District 3 and 15 are similar in population after adding on all those extra counties, all of which are not rural, such as Fairfield which is fairly populated.

In Northeast Ohio I've always wondered if one could make basically an Akron-Canton district, and then a purely Northeast Ohio District basically running from Youngstown through Portage east and west and then North to the coast with lake in Ashtabula? Maybe I am just in denial about how far places like Trumbull and Mahoning County have shifted, even Beyond their infatuation with Trump in 2016, but I can't help it thinking that those districts would be reasonably split. I would assume that the Akron-Canton District would actually be democratic-leaning, but maybe not. I'm surprised that your version of 14 that basically includes 3 traditionally Democratic counties plus the city of Akron would still only be lean d.

I like connecting Dayton to Springfield and always thought that should be the basis of any District down there. I always thought that little bridge should maybe reach out to Yellow Springs to include the one I think semi liberal hippie Haven in Greene County I was wondering if you considered including Beavercreek for portion of green more in the district maybe to substitute for that small chunk of Butler County?

Also interesting that Northwest Ohio district is so swingy. Considering how much more populated Toledo is compared to the rest of the district, plus Ottawa and wood counties are rather purple, I wouldn't think the remaining rural counties would come close to making this District anywhere near an even P VI.

[Badger]

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

[Badger]

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.

Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.

Democrats are very unlikely to flip the Supreme Court. And if they do I suspect Republicans would simply try to Bunker down with procedural roadblocks and delays to give them time to flip it back.

[Badger]

Everything about this 'reform' was planned. The GOP's problem is that unless they produce something 'reasonable,' the law would be sidelined in favor of true redistricting reform via a new ballot initiative. 

I can tell you first-hand that is true. Then Senate Majority Leader Keith Faber, now state auditor, explicitly said so in a speech he gave at a Republican County dinner I went to a few years ago. I think I ground a quarter inch of a enamel off my teeth keeping silent.

[Badger]

A four-year map only happens if the first three rounds to fail. Isn’t it more likely the GOP draws a slightly less favorable map than the current one for 10 years?

Why would a 4 year map be bad for the GOP?
I guess there is the slight risk of losing two statewide races(governor + auditor) and then the D's can gerrymander to a degree back but its unlikely and 4 year maps are also good in the sense that they now a legal excuse to do a Delaymander to fix any possible "trends" such as swing backs in the Mahoning Valley or further trends in Columbus.

Why they passed this so-called reform.

[Badger]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

This is actually a pretty good map. It keeps COIs rather intact, and it gives Democrats at least the opportunity to recover some seats if they can win him back Obama - Trump voters. If they can't, they probably don't deserve to pick up many more seats than this map allows. I would love to know what Sherrod Brown's numbers under this map were.

Can I also just say that, while occasionally throwing out the occasional Just for kicks extreme gerrymander Maps is one thing, to have folks like Idaho conservative, krazen back in the day, and others aggressively and repeatedly push for extreme gerrymander favoring their party like rrh does strikes me as a grotesquely tasteless middle finger towards democracy at best, and reading it on these threads at worse sounds like some type of political snuff porn.

[Badger]

Delaware and Franklin both contain Columbus. Is that not an important COI?

Sure but so does Fairfield county.

This. Plus the city of Pickerington, effectively the Second City of Fairfield County, has a tiny sliver of a few apartment complexes in Franklin County. Then there is Reynoldsburg, a not insignificant suburb of Columbus, which is divided into Franklin Fairfield and licking counties. Then there's the city of Dublin, the second biggest City at least partially in Franklin County behind Columbus, extends into Union and Delaware Counties. Westerville expands into Delaware, New Albany into Licking County, and the list goes on from there. Not to mention that the internal municipality lines in Franklin County are so so messed up, including at least one Township that I swear to God has two non-contiguous portions that aren't even connected by a lake or something. They just refuse to be annexed because they fear losing their independent police protection as it includes some rough neighborhoods.

My point is trying to design communities of Interest strictly along both county lines and municipality lines in central Ohio is effectively impossible because the boundaries are so jiggered up.

EDIT: I'll also add that County lines are hardly indicative of communities of Interest anymore. I'll go back to the example of Pickerington which is 98% in Fairfield County. It and its surrounding Township, though, are surely a Columbus suburb and have far more connection to Columbus and Franklin County than it does the county seat down in Lancaster, or indeed the rest of Fairfield County. People around there subscribe to the Columbus Dispatch , not the Lancaster Eagle Gazette. If they head off for shopping or a night out, the vast majority of the time they will head into Columbus for the malls of the Easton the shop rather than Lancaster which has little in the way of amenities. Columbus is generally a closer drive for most parts of the area via 70 or 33 then downtown Lancaster. Lancaster is the place where such local residents go if they have to go to a government office or court for some reason, plus a limited few who may have jobs in Lancaster, though far far more work in Columbus and Franklin County if they work outside of the Pickerington area. Likewise, Lancaster has even less connection the Pickerington in terms of jobs, commonality of community interest, Services, Etc.

For perspective, that corner of the county also includes the portions of Reynoldsburg, Columbus, and Canal Winchester that are in Fairfield County. Those also help to give the community a heavily Columbus- Centric Outlook. Also, the cultural and economic disconnect between Lancaster and the Violet Township portion of Fairfield County Sheriff for most of the rest of Fairfield county is well, albeit with some expected minor closer connections for the small portion of the county lying just outside Violet Township limits.

I'm not saying there's some unofficial Berlin wall, or even an 8 Mile Road like in Detroit, utterly separating Violet Township communities culturally and economically from the rest of Fairfield County. However, if we were looking strictly at true communities of interest for redistricting it would absolutely make sense to include Violet Township, including Pickerington, as part of a Franklin County District , county lines be damned. And I use this as only one example of what can apply to probably hundreds of communities around Ohio but for redistricting laws giving inordinate attention and weight to County boundaries.

[Badger]

Other than Chabot, who is the most vulnerable? Balderson?

Maybe only because since he lives in Zanesville, he would have a three-way Deathmatch between two other incumbents, Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs. As pretty much the only part of balderson bass left in the District would be his home in Muskingum County, and Gibbs would pretty much only have his even smaller home base in Holmes County, Johnson would be a strong bet to win that race.

Either he or Gibbs may want to carpet bag slightly West to run in the new 4th District. I haven't taken the time to see if its proposed boundaries here include the home of any current Republican congressman. If not, balderson would have a good chance of winning any primary here as the eastern half of the district includes much of his current District and at least portions of his Old State Senate District. Dibs would have some part of his congressional district in the northeastern part of the district it appears, but while balderson is hardly a shining star, Gibbs has always struck me is an overrated entity. So gun to my head, Balderson probably wins a primary for the 4th District, again assuming there isn't yet another incumbent living somewhere within its proposed boundaries.

To answer the question, with his home in Holmes County being siphoned off into the 6th District, but with effectively nothing else of his old District being included in the new 6th, I would say Gibbs would be the most vulnerable incumbent because he'd have to carpet bag to avoid probably losing the primary.

[Badger]

Well, having reviewed and applied the Ohio anti-gerrymandering strictures, as expected I find them quite toothless. Heck, although it would not have been that big a problem anyway, other than for cities in excess of 100,000, there is no limit at all to municipal chopping. One could do whatever the F one wanted. It’s party time! Not that some circuit breakers here would have slowed the party down much from doing whatever the heck one wanted anyway.

So here is Ohio in all its glory, and, in its current political condition, one didn’t even need to break a sweat to create this masterpiece. Badger's CD embraces Holmes County as it should. He should enjoy campaigning there when he runs for Congress. Leave the beer at home in Holmes Badger.

My OH-02 kind of reminds me of the glory days of that CD that ran from the Memphis burbs to Nashville burbs.

And in a sign of the times, one 25,000 or so folks of once comfortably Pub Arlington have been dumped into OH-03, which smoothed out the lines on the western edge of OH-03 to boot, to make the map even more beautiful.

Oh, my favorite moment is when I put the hippies/stoners/weathermen/whatever left hanging around in Yellow Springs around after Antioch College shut down,  into Jordon's district per a nice little county chop just for it because they are so special. COI baby. Gotta do it. Sure it created another county chop, but several (many actually) were left on the table permissible under law feeling lonely and unused, which kind of made me think I must be doing something wrong.

Addendum: I guess the remaining issue is whether the Pubs should threaten to seize Hamilton County if the Dems don't agree to a 10 year plan for this puppy. I know Badger would say no, but then he isn't in Hamilton County planning to run for Congress either.

Just for fun, I will leave it to someone else to draw a 4 year plan map, be it a bluff or otherwise. The idea would be to minimize dummymander potential of course in the Columbus, Cincy and Dayton area in particular, to give the bluff more teeth, if intended as a bluff, or otherwise. The provision of the law can be found here: https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Ohio_after_the_2020_census#Drafting_process

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b9f944aa-cc44-4620-86b3-39754293d587

Still not with Holmes County here, but thanks for thinking of me.

BTW, that is absolutely cruel to Yellow Springs.

[Badger]

Here's a better picture of them -

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1435974025579216897
How can those two Dayton Senate districts be legal?   That can't possibly follow the rules, does it?  

 Uning believable

[Badger]

Dayton is also changed. Its in a swing Biden +5 seat now.

You mean SD6? Well, looks like those complainers had some effect.

 Lipstick on a pig. These maps are still at abomination.

[Badger]

So apparently the redistrict and commission has cried Uncle and accepted accepted the last rejected Republican map with apparently nominal window dressing changes.

Between this, Governor ever's map being thrown out in the middle of the night by the US Supreme Court, and now the Santos V towing a new congressional map, republicans are working overtime all too successfully at cutting off democracy at the knees. Well done chaps.