Ohio redistricting thread

[Zaybay]

OH's redistricting will certainly be interesting next decade. Due to overwhelming support for redistricting reform in the state, the Republicans were forced to make concessions in the form of a commission. While notably very weak, the Rs will at least have to somewhat respect its decisions lest it upset the electorate and spur another attempt at a non-partisan redistricting commission.

The map we are likely to see is one of a soft R gerrymander. OH-01 likely becomes a D seat, but Tim Ryan may find himself in trouble if the Rs can successfully argue that separating Youngstown from Akron is fair. Besides that, we may also see some unpacking of the D-sinks, but probably not enough to seriously put any seat in a marginal position.

The most likely result, in my opinion, is a 10-5 R map, with the possibility of Ds taking 2 more seats in a really good year.

 If the Ds are able to win two SC seats in 2020, however, then we likely get a fair map with a tilt towards the Republicans, perhaps something like 8-7 R.

[Zaybay]

OH's redistricting will certainly be interesting next decade. Due to overwhelming support for redistricting reform in the state, the Republicans were forced to make concessions in the form of a commission. While notably very weak, the Rs will at least have to somewhat respect its decisions lest it upset the electorate and spur another attempt at a non-partisan redistricting commission.

The map we are likely to see is one of a soft R gerrymander. OH-01 likely becomes a D seat, but Tim Ryan may find himself in trouble if the Rs can successfully argue that separating Youngstown from Akron is fair. Besides that, we may also see some unpacking of the D-sinks, but probably not enough to seriously put any seat in a marginal position.

The most likely result, in my opinion, is a 10-5 R map, with the possibility of Ds taking 2 more seats in a really good year.

 If the Ds are able to win two SC seats in 2020, however, then we likely get a fair map with a tilt towards the Republicans, perhaps something like 8-7 R.

How is 8-7 a tilt towards the Republican? Thats beyond the partisanship of Ohio. I would agree that a fair map might be around there but its in no way a GOP leaning map, id guess it would be 1 in cinci, 2 in Columbus, 1 tilt/lean D in toledo 2 in cleveland and 1 in akron/summit.

By tilting Republican, I mean that, due to the natural geographic advantage possessed by Rs in the state, it will be much easier for the Rs to increase their seat total than the Ds. For instance, the 8 R seats would likely be much more safe than the 7 seats the Ds would possess. Its a similar case with PA, which, while possessing a fair map, still rather clearly tilts towards the Rs.

[Zaybay]

so it sounds like Republicans are likely to lose the seat that is lost?  (because it's so gerrymandered in their favor to begin with)

Thanks to the weak commission, yes. If the commission were not in place, the Rs could just carve up Tim Ryan's seat and regain their lost seat via that method, but thankfully, the commission stops those kind of shenanigans from occurring.