Ohio redistricting thread

[voice_of_resistance]

Reviving this thread now that DRA has 2018 pop estimates. This is my good-government map accounting for the fact that Rs are drawing it.

http://dra-purple.indirect.cc/maps#viewmap::60cd324f-99f5-4f26-8b13-743556001e23

By district:
OH-01: Cincinnati, Hamilton County reunited.  Chabot and Wenstrup are both screwed here, as this is a D pickup. Composite D 55-45, D+3. (Likely D)

OH-02: Chilicothe, Cincy exurbs, Columbus southern and eastern suburbs. Wenstrup could carpetbag and run here, and he'd win pretty easily. Composite R 65-35, R+16. (Safe R)

OH-03: Columbus, southern Franklin County. GOP wouldn't dismantle this. Beatty will be fine here. Composite D 68-32, D+16. (Safe D)

OH-04: Bellefontaine, Lima, Urbana, rural Western Ohio. The sad side of a fair map is that idiots like Jim Jordan get safer seats as they get Oberlin and Elyria removed from their seats. (Not that Jordan was ever vulnerable, but you know). Warren Davidson from the 8th district lives here now, in Miami County, so here is another double-bunk. Composite R 72-28, R+24. (Safe R)

OH-05: Toledo, Bowling Green, NW Ohio. Latta is likely screwed here. Kaptur lives in Toledo, so it's a likely double-bunk. Composite D 53-47, D+1. (Lean D)

OH-06: Athens, Zanesville, SE Ohio. This district used to be somewhat competitive but is now gone for Dems. Balderson and Johnson both live here, and we have another double-bunk here. Composite R 61-39, R+13. (Safe R)

OH-07: Ashland, Berlin, north-central Ohio. Gibbs lives in this district, and it is made more compact to take in all the rurals between Columbus and the lake. Composite R 65-35, R+16. (Safe R)

OH-08: Butler, Warren, Clermont counties, Cincy exurbs. This seat is still an uber-red swath of suburban territory north and east of Cincy, but is pushed further southward. Davidson doesn't actually live in this district, but it is still ruby-red. Chabot could definitely carpetbag here and he'd be safe. Composite R 66-34, R+18. (Safe R)

OH-09: Lorain, Fremont, West Cleveland. The Snake on the Lake is back, but less of a snake and more of a crocodile (a bit wider). Kaptur already lives in the 5th, and it spans the entire lakeshore from the 5th all the way to the western edges of Cuyahoga. Now that there are two non-Cuyahoga lake districts, Dennis Kucinich could have a run again, or some other Dem. Composite D 59-41, D+7. (Likely D)

OH-10: Dayton, Xenia, Springfield. This district doesn't change much except it takes in the city of Springfield to make it somewhat competitive. Composite R 51-49, R+3. Turner should be fine here. (Safe R with Turner, Likely R if OPEN)

OH-11: Cleveland, Akron. This is the minority district, at 49.9% black, that takes in all the black precincts of Northeast Ohio. Marcia Fudge should be fine here as the seat is still strongly Democratic. Composite D 80-20, D+28. (Safe D)

OH-12: Upper Arlington, Dublin, Delaware County. This is a more compact version of the old OH-12 created due to increased population growth in Franklin and Delaware Counties. Stivers could run here, especially since his district has been axed here, and since Balderson is double-bunked in the 6th. Composite R 51-49, R+2. (Lean R)

OH-13: Warren, Youngstown, Canton. The northeast Ohio white Dem pack remains. It is easier to keep Tim Ryan in the House here, rather than feeding a bunch of Democrats to neighboring seats and forcing Ryan statewide. While OH is trending right, Ryan would be a solid candidate. But under this district, it remains blue enough for him to win it even amid the trends. Composite D 55-45, D+2. (Likely D with Ryan, Lean D if OPEN)

OH-14: Ashtabula, Geauga, Lake counties. This is the Republican rural NE Ohio district. Joyce actually lives in the 11th in Richmond Heights, but could easily carpetbag as it is literally a few blocks away. This district is trending away from competitiveness, but if open it could flip. Composite R 52-48, R+4. (Safe R with Joyce, Likely R if OPEN)

OH-15: Rocky River, Parma, Medina. This district takes in the suburbs south and west of Cleveland, and is where Anthony Gonzalez is. Composite R 56-44, R+7. (Safe R with Gonzalez, Likely R if OPEN)

Summarizing:
1: OPEN
2: Wenstrup
3: Beatty
4: Jordan/Davidson
5: Latta/Kaptur
6: Johnson/Balderson
7: Gibbs
8: Chabot
9: OPEN
10: Turner
11: Fudge
12: Stivers
13: Ryan
14: Joyce
15: Gonzalez

Safe R:
Wenstrup (2), Jordan/Davidson (4), Johnson/Balderson (6), Gibbs (7), Chabot ( , Turner (10), Joyce (14), Gonzalez (15)

Lean R: Stivers (12)

Lean D: Kaptur/Latta (5)

Safe D:
OPEN (1), Beatty (3), OPEN (9), Fudge (11), Ryan (13)

[voice_of_resistance]

cause DRA purple has 2018 estimates and most of the new features that regular DRA doesn't.

[voice_of_resistance]

[voice_of_resistance]

1: D+3
2: R+16
3: D+16
4: R+24
5: D+1
6: R+13
7: R+16
8: R+18
9: D+7
10: R+3
11: D+28
12: R+2
13: D+2
14: R+4
15: R+7

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah this map looks better than mine. Well done! I went for fairness a little more, but this works.

[voice_of_resistance]

a fair Ohio map should be 7D-8R, with one or two of the 7 being competitive.

D seats:

1 Cincinnati
1 Columbus
2 Lakefront (Toledo/Lorain)
2 Cleveland
1 Youngstown/NE Ohio

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah just ran with it, you may be right.

Essentially I think that the new distributions for 2018 would be

1 Cincinnati
2 Columbus (1 safe D, one tossup trending D)
3 Lakeshore + Cleveland (some arrangement of Toledo, Lorain, and Cuyahoga)
1 NE Ohio

That sounds better.

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah just ran with it, you may be right.

Essentially I think that the new distributions for 2018 would be

1 Cincinnati
2 Columbus (1 safe D, one tossup trending D)
3 Lakeshore + Cleveland (some arrangement of Toledo, Lorain, and Cuyahoga)
1 NE Ohio

That sounds better.

Right. The real problematic set is two Toledo-Lakeshore Democratic districts. That's not possible. There can be one Toledo-Lakeshore district west of Lorain (Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie is almost exactly one seat), then one Lorain-Cuyahoga district and one Cuyahoga-only district (maybe dipping slightly into Summit and/or Lake but not by a material amount).

yeah, that sounds better. Make OH-05 the Toledo/Lakeshore seat with everything west of Lorain, and OH-09 goes into the western suburbs of Cleveland, and then OH-11 becomes everything else in Cuyahoga. The question becomes then, where does OH-13 go? It's obviously going to be the southern half of Trumbull and Mahoning combined with either Canton or Akron. Akron is bigger but allows Gonzalez to take in Canton in OH-15.

[voice_of_resistance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2f7797e8-7277-4f08-af26-56e4ad8ab750

My new attempt at a fair map with 2018 estimates, irrespective of politics.

OH-01: Cincinnati, D+4 (Chabot, Wenstrup)
OH-02: Chillicothe, south-central Ohio, R+16
OH-03: Columbus, D+12 (Beatty, Stivers)
OH-04: Bellefontaine, Lima, rural Western Ohio, R+23 (Jordan, Davidson)
OH-05: Toledo, NW Ohio, D+1 (Latta, Kaptur)
OH-06: Ohio Valley, SE Ohio, R+13 (Johnson)
OH-07: Marion, Zanesville, central Ohio, R+16 (Gibbs, Balderson)
OH-08: Butler/Warren/Clermont, R+18
OH-09: Lorain, Elyria, Cleveland west suburbs, lakeshore, R+1 (Gonzalez)
OH-10: Dayton, Springfield, R+3 (Turner)
OH-11: Cleveland, Cuyahoga NE suburbs, D+29 (Fudge, Joyce)
OH-12: northern Franklin suburbs, Delaware, D+1
OH-13: Youngstown, Canton, D+0 (Ryan)
OH-14: Ashtabula, Geauga, NE Ohio, R+5
OH-15: Parma, Medina, Akron, D+2

Districts 1, 3, 5, 11, 13, and 15 all should elect Dems, with 5 being somewhat competitive.
Districts 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, and 14 are solidly R seats. 9 and 12 are tossup here. Given the amount of double-bunking, I can see Wenstrup carpetbagging to 2, Stivers to 12, Davidson to 8, and Joyce going to 14.

Thus:
Safe D:
new D rep (1), Beatty (3), Kaptur (5), Fudge (11), Ryan (13), new D rep (15)

Tossup:
Gonzalez (9), Stivers (12)

Safe R:
Wenstrup (2), Jordan (4), Johnson (6), Gibbs (7), Davidson (, Turner (10), Joyce (14)

Chabot is screwed, as is Balderson, as they have no hope of beating more-name recognition reps who have already represented the areas in the new R-friendly districts. The overall breakdown of this map is thus 7D-8R, with a possible loss of districts 5 and 13 for Dems, meaning it could get as R-friendly as 5D-10R, or as D-friendly as 9D-6R if Turner leaves and Dems win 9.

[voice_of_resistance]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

[voice_of_resistance]

what's the rule about splitting Cleveland? Isn't Cuyahoga currently split between 11, 14, and 16?

TBF not sure if its legal but you split the city of Cleveland itself 3 times which isn't a very good look. Splitting Cuyohoga three times is fine but splitting a city of around 350k three times isn't very good.

Ah I see your point. I can definitely work on redrawing it with these criteria in mind.

[voice_of_resistance]

Here's my 15-district court-drawn Ohio.



OH-01: Cincinnati, Dem 55-45, D+4 (Chabot, Likely D Flip)
OH-02: Cincy East/southern Ohio, GOP 63-37, R+15 (Wenstrup, Safe R)
OH-03: Columbus, Dem 72-28, D+20 (Beatty, Safe D)
OH-04: Western Ohio, GOP 71-29, R+23 (Jordan/Davidson, Safe R)
OH-05: Toledo/Western Lakefront, Dem 54-46, D+2 (Kaptur/Latta, Lean D)
OH-06: Ohio Valley, GOP 62-38, R+13 (Johnson/Balderson, Safe R)
OH-07: North Central Ohio, GOP 65-35, R+17 (Gibbs, Safe R)
OH-08: Cincy Exurbs, GOP 67-33, R+19 (OPEN, Safe R)
OH-09: Oberlin/Cleveland West Suburbs, Dem 51-49, R+1 (OPEN, Tossup)
OH-10: Dayton, GOP 51-49, R+3 (Turner, Likely R)
OH-11: Cleveland/Eastern Suburbs, Dem 79-21, D+27 (Fudge/Gonzalez/Joyce, Safe D)
OH-12: Columbus/Northern Suburbs, GOP 54-46, R+5 (Stivers, Likely R)
OH-13: Youngstown/Akron, Dem 58-42, D+6 (OPEN, Safe D)
OH-14: Northeast/Cleveland Southern Suburbs, Dem 52-48, D+0 (Ryan, Tossup)
OH-15: Canton/Medina, GOP 56-44, R+8 (OPEN, Likely R)

Assuming a little bit of carpetbagging, that means the new delegation would look like this:

OH-01: New Dem
OH-02: Brad Wenstrup (R)
OH-03: Joyce Beatty (D)
OH-04: Jim Jordan (R)
OH-05: Marcy Kaptur (D), would have somewhat closer re-elections
OH-06: Bill Johnson (R)
OH-07: Bob Gibbs (R)
OH-08: Warren Davidson (R)
OH-09: New Dem, would have electoral knife fight on his/her hands
OH-10: Mike Turner (R)
OH-11: Marcia Fudge (D)
OH-12: Steve Stivers (R)
OH-13: Tim Ryan (D)
OH-14: Dave Joyce (R), would have electoral knife fight on his/her hands
OH-15: Anthony Gonzalez (R)

5/9/14 are all competitive to some degree, with 10/12/15 being the B-tier of races.