Ohio redistricting thread

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/907542e2-e7cd-4343-8870-dc77790598a6
8R-4S-3D
Swing district has pvi under 5.  2 of the swing districts lean dem, 2 lean rep.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf2b2217-b59d-49e3-9cb7-a0ff2c1a28ed
8R-4S-3D
Swing district has pvi under 5.  2 of the swing districts lean dem, 2 lean rep.

that's a weird map of ohio

thanks, wrong map
https://davesredistricting.org/join/907542e2-e7cd-4343-8870-dc77790598a6

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's an attempt at a compliant 13-2 map I put together a couple days ago. I don't think the Ohio GOP would quite be willing to go this far as it results in a number of R+4 seats that could easily fall in a wave. The geography of it actually comes out quite clean except for Akron.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::62e01fe6-ea25-421b-b48c-8638e8381824

If you concede a 3rd seat, probably in Akron, it makes it cleaner and safer.  Wouldn't even have to be a pack, just 12R-1T-2D would be doable. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

[Idaho Conservative]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

[Idaho Conservative]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

Only Columbus can be split.   Keeping municipalities together is one of the strongest parts of the reform.

Plus this map just screams lawsuits about splitting up communities of interests and benefiting a political party.

my map is far less partisan than some here.

[Idaho Conservative]

too bad no 2016 numbers.  2012-16 composite are useless in a state like
 OH

[Idaho Conservative]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272
 
And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

worst case scenario dems win maybe 5 seats, still pretty good.  Most likely dems would win 2-3 tho

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.

doesn't require that.  Just that a whole county is present in the district.

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.

doesn't require that.  Just that a whole county is present in the district.

Did you follow these rules? 65 of Ohio’s 88 counties cannot be split at all. 18 of Ohio’s counties can be split only once. Only five counties can be split twice. So under this particular proposal, a county cannot be split three different times.

pretty sure

[Idaho Conservative]

My take on a fair map. 
6 safe R (R+6 or greater) Cinci suburbs, Lima, western Columbus, Athens, Northern Columbus, Canton
2 lean R (R+3-5) Dayton, Cleveland's eastern suburbs
4 highly competitive (D+2-R+2) Toledo, Lake shore, Akron, Youngstown
1 lean Dem (D+3-5) Cincinnati
2 safe Dem (D+6 or greater) Columbus, Cleveland
I would've made the Akron seat dem leaning except to keep Youngstown and Warren together, I had to move OH-14 into Cuyahoga county and Akron had to take in rural areas.  But it's very competitive.
The outcome is tilt R, but communities of interest are kept together well and there are 7 competitive seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3a4c5cf7-7bdd-47b5-ad79-7d52e4ec2485

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

only large counties can be split. look up the specifics

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

only large counties can be split. look up the specifics

um no? from XIX.02: "of the eighty-eight counties in this state, sixty-five counties shall be contained entirely within a district, eighteen counties may be split not more than once, and five counties may be split not more than twice." even RRH's awful albeit legal map splits a number of small counties. stop trolling lol come back when you've actually read the rules

and side note your "fair" map cuts up COIs like nobody's business and violates article xix section 1 3a of the state constitution. 12-3 trump? where's that ~statewide vote~ energy you had with california

At this point, it is unclear which counties can be split.  But I had read that it was only the most populated ones.  The amendment does include language that it will have to be determined not just how many counties can be split, but also which. 

Section 3A is up for interpretation.  Depend on who controls the court basically.  My fair map keeps communities together, what you said is hogwash.  I guess Democrats count as a community of interest to you lol.  Also my California map (totally irreverent to this discussion btw) gave republicans fewer seats than their statewide vote share, due to political geography.  My Ohio map does the same to democrats.  Just how the cookie crumbles. 

[Idaho Conservative]

At this point, it is unclear which counties can be split.  But I had read that it was only the most populated ones.  The amendment does include language that it will have to be determined not just how many counties can be split, but also which.  

literally every map in this thread but yours has small county splits and there's nothing in the constitution that prohibits it, so stop claiming it's illegal because you "had read that" from an unnamed source as opposed to the actual state constitution

My fair map keeps communities together, what you said is hogwash.  I guess Democrats count as a community of interest to you lol.  Also my California map (totally irreverent to this discussion btw) gave republicans fewer seats than their statewide vote share, due to political geography.  My Ohio map does the same to democrats.  Just how the cookie crumbles.  

this whole paragraph might be the most foolish thing you've ever said. there's so many things wrong with your map, but any map that separates delaware and franklin counties is already bad. i drew my map with partisan data off, it gives trump 60% of the districts, and by no means maximizes dem votes (see: akron, elyria, youngstown) nor GOP ones so and my point is you very clearly draw with a republican bias to try to "correct" (to an extent) states with a dem-favoring geography (CA), but in states with a neutral or GOP-favoring geography, you suddenly don't care about the statewide vote and actually gerrymander even more, all while claiming to preserve unnamed COIs every time. there is no consistency there except wanting republicans to win. you know it's kind of disappointing that you don't make any genuine contributions to the whole redistricting conversation

LMAO

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

No it doesn’t. Too many county splits. Cincinnati should be in Hamilton-only OH-01.

My map has fewer county splits than the limit.  Actually less than most maps here do.

[Idaho Conservative]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

[Idaho Conservative]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

nope.  Objective is a numerical standard.  Whether a map is fair is a matter of opinion.

[Idaho Conservative]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

Pretty sure Columbus can be cut once

[Idaho Conservative]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

nope.  Objective is a numerical standard.  Whether a map is fair is a matter of opinion.

I heard that if one district can be located in only one county, then it must. That is a numerical standard.

The rules don't say that