Ohio redistricting thread

[Oryxslayer]

Ohio's redistricting has always seemed like a black box to me: too many outs and potential forks in the road are provided by the redistricting amendment. Oh, and Ohio's new process is untested, so we have no prior data to look at. I guess I'll try for a writeup, but don't expect much.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

[Oryxslayer]

FTR, here is the text of the restrictions. It does appear that Chabot is not instantly DOA, I miss-remembered the county provisions, however his survival would be a surprise. Ohio passed this thing to keep redistricting reformers sated while keeping power in the hands of the GOP, so not throwing that community some sort of bone would defeat the laws purpose and precipitate true reform.

1.   Plans must comply with relevant provisions of the Ohio Constitution, U.S. Constitution, and federal law.

2.   Districts shall be compact. (This requirement does not apply to plans passed by the legislature with less than 60-percent or less than one-third support from each party. In that case, the legislature shall attempt to draw compact districts.)

3.   Districts must be contiguous.

4.   For a county with a population greater than one congressional district:

a.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population greater than one congressional district, then map drawers shall attempt to include a significant portion of the municipality/township in a single district. The district drawer may include in that district other municipalities/townships located in the county, whose residents have similar interests as residents in the first municipality/township.

b.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population over 100,000 but less than one congressional district, then that municipality/township cannot be split.

c.   If the county contains more than one such municipality/township, then only the largest one cannot be split.

5.   65 counties must be kept whole, 18 counties may be split once, and 5 counties may be split twice.

6.   A district cannot include two parts of a county that are not contiguous within that county.

7.   The same two districts cannot split the same two counties between them, except for counties with over 400,000 people.

8.   Map drawers must attempt to include at least one whole county in each district. This does not apply to a district contained entirely within one county or that, to comply with federal law, cannot include a whole county.

Rules Applying to Plans Passed by Simple Majority

If the redistricting plan is passed by simple majority under Step Three, the plan must adhere to these additional requirements:

1.   The plan cannot not unduly (dis)favor a political party or its incumbents.

2.   The plan may not unduly split governmental units, giving preference to keeping whole (in this order) counties, townships, and municipalities.

3.   The legislature must attempt to draw compact districts.

[Oryxslayer]

Everything about this 'reform' was planned. The GOP's problem is that unless they produce something 'reasonable,' the law would be sidelined in favor of true redistricting reform via a new ballot initiative. 

[Oryxslayer]

a fair Ohio map should be 7D-8R, with one or two of the 7 being competitive.

D seats:

1 Cincinnati
1 Columbus
2 Lakefront (Toledo/Lorain)
2 Cleveland
1 Youngstown/NE Ohio

You can't get two D seats from Cuyahoga county anymore, the county (and D vote) has shrunk by a lot. You would need to take in some suburbs. Same with the lakeshore. A second D seat is more likely to emerge from Columbus at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

https://districtr.org/edit/3690

Trump +8 using the city of Cincinnati and the East Cincinnati burbs and some deep red counties to the east.

You mean West Cinci burbs as I see on the map?
Anyway I think its still "legal" and possible to gerrymander Cincinatti out of its rightful representation.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

I had no idea western Hamilton county was so Republican. Seems like it's very white and lower middle class.

Western Hamilton is culturally part of the 3 suburban counties to the north and east, which are all blood red. Under a fair map, one could make the Cincinnati seat truly safe D by choosing to remove these Western burbs.

[Oryxslayer]

This NE map has 0 major county splits, doesn't have a Dem reach for Warren or Youngstown and doesn't split any cities either as far as I can tell.
Only county splits are The East west Cuyahoga split,a little bit of suburban Cleveland left on the east , rural Portage taken out and only takes a bit of rural Portage and one town from Summit. And the Mahoning is kept whole besides Columbiana if one considers that Mahoning. PVI for the red is D+0.98 but it still voted for Clinton by my estimates as the 3 main counties voted for Clinton by a few hundred while the akron precints removed are swing, the portage precints removed are deep red while the Cleveland burbs are light red. I highly reccomend everyone does this for NE Ohio and work the rest of the map from there.

I'm not sure which party would take offense at the entire region becoming a battleground...but someone would. Reminds me of this weird map proposed by the LoWV during their 2018 gerrymandering lawsuit.

[Oryxslayer]

FTR, here is the text of the restrictions. It does appear that Chabot is not instantly DOA, I miss-remembered the county provisions, however his survival would be a surprise. Ohio passed this thing to keep redistricting reformers sated while keeping power in the hands of the GOP, so not throwing that community some sort of bone would defeat the laws purpose and precipitate true reform.

1.   Plans must comply with relevant provisions of the Ohio Constitution, U.S. Constitution, and federal law.

2.   Districts shall be compact. (This requirement does not apply to plans passed by the legislature with less than 60-percent or less than one-third support from each party. In that case, the legislature shall attempt to draw compact districts.)

3.   Districts must be contiguous.

4.   For a county with a population greater than one congressional district:

a.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population greater than one congressional district, then map drawers shall attempt to include a significant portion of the municipality/township in a single district. The district drawer may include in that district other municipalities/townships located in the county, whose residents have similar interests as residents in the first municipality/township.

b.   If the county contains a municipality/township with a population over 100,000 but less than one congressional district, then that municipality/township cannot be split.

c.   If the county contains more than one such municipality/township, then only the largest one cannot be split.

5.   65 counties must be kept whole, 18 counties may be split once, and 5 counties may be split twice.

6.   A district cannot include two parts of a county that are not contiguous within that county.

7.   The same two districts cannot split the same two counties between them, except for counties with over 400,000 people.

8.   Map drawers must attempt to include at least one whole county in each district. This does not apply to a district contained entirely within one county or that, to comply with federal law, cannot include a whole county.

Rules Applying to Plans Passed by Simple Majority

If the redistricting plan is passed by simple majority under Step Three, the plan must adhere to these additional requirements:

1.   The plan cannot not unduly (dis)favor a political party or its incumbents.

2.   The plan may not unduly split governmental units, giving preference to keeping whole (in this order) counties, townships, and municipalities.

3.   The legislature must attempt to draw compact districts.

Realistic GOP gerrymander 2021:
- 11 Safe GOP seats to 4 Safe Dem seats. Only OH-01 and OH-14 are realistically capable of flipping this decade in a Blue Wave, but both more Republican than their predecessors.
- Chose not to create a new swing/GOP seat in Mahoning Valley because it wouldn't be safe for GOP, and unsure whether trends there will continue.

Although there is a risk to creating a swing seat in the Mahoning, the Toledo seat can easily be made swing or 2 GOP leaning ones(quite heavily)

Also district 1 and 2 split Cincinatti so not allowed, The only way to keep Cinci in a GOP leaning district is take West Hamilton then immediatly go East to the mega GOP rural counties.

I can't tell from here but it also looks like he broke the parallel cut rules everywhere, possibly the disconnected cuts rule in Cleveland and Colombus, possibly the whole county rule in CD9 and 13, possibly the municipality rule in Akron and Toledo, and possibly the total county cuts - but this one is unlikely. I wonder if he even knows Ohio's rules of the road.

[Oryxslayer]

North and South Columbus must be in two different districts. South Columbus is more culturally like Athens Ohio than anywhere else and North Columbus should go in a district with DelCo. Anything else is a gerrymander.

That is illegal under Ohio law. As much of Columbus must be in one district as is reasonably practicable.

Not exactly, but close. Because Columbus is larger that 1 district it must have 1 district built out of a large part of the city. It also must be nested in the home county. However large cities can be cut and the pieces paired with other communities in the county if it better served the communities and the overall map. This provision is mainly there for Cleveland and its AA suburbs. For example, a chunk of northern (likely non-AA) Columbus can get removed to go with the suburbs and Delaware - especially since Columbus sprawls into Delaware - and the much larger rest of the city goes with the rest of the county for OH-03 or its successor.

[Oryxslayer]

Fair map:
SNIP

I guess the map I sent in to the Ohio Commission is similar. We both kinda cut the same seat geographically, just shuffled the NE differently.



I really liked how the Grouping of OH-09, OH-11, OH-13, OH-14, and OH-15 worked in my plan - only 11 people under the necessary pop for the county grouping - and I worked with that county alignment in mind. The surplus in the Cincinnati suburbs prevented anything like true second Columbus suburb seat, and I felt it was best to pair the mid-sized central Ohio cities like Lancaster, Marion, Mansfield, and Newark.



I really dislike DRA's partisan analysis - I feel they are too overzealous declaring a seat uncompetitive -  but here's that map anyway. Competitive districts were a secondary goal that got achieved.

Link for the interested.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

That's all well and good, but you do realize Columbus sprawls out into Delaware right? Yes the commissions legal text says that one should treat cities/municipalities cut between counties as two separate entities for the purpose of redistricting and preserving county units, but when there has to be a district that cuts into Columbus it makes sense for it to be Delaware that takes the spoils. So you are already chopping it once. Obviously this isn't what the GOP wants, but I can't see it convincing anyone else.

Also, something everyone should be aware of is that OH-03 is majority-minority (aka only plurality white) as of the 2020 census, and this can be preserved without much effort or significant gerrymandering like is done presently.

[Oryxslayer]

It's late at night, but apparently the commission is in session. GOP proposed some edits to the previous map the clean up lines that their caucus was uncomfortable with, most in the NE.

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1438326861298339841?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Dayton is also changed. Its in a swing Biden +5 seat now.

You mean SD6? Well, looks like those complainers had some effect.

[Oryxslayer]

All the above said, the 4-year maps were passed 5-2. Though I think this is a very fertile field from which the seeds of a fast court challenge and throwaway will grow.  

[Oryxslayer]

This will be a fun lawsuit. The OH republicans didn't even try to give it the apperance of being fair.

I have real trouble seeing how the OH supreme court upholds this.

Yeah this seems like an in-and-out case. Multiple commissioners deriding the process, lack of transparency, and potential minority vote dilution, and potential voiding of commission compactness and COI guidelines. Of course, when the map gets thrown out 4-3 they are apparently required to order the commission start over this time under their supervision, whereas congressionally the court can take over completely.

[Oryxslayer]

This will be a fun lawsuit. The OH republicans didn't even try to give it the apperance of being fair.

I have real trouble seeing how the OH supreme court upholds this.

Yeah this seems like an in-and-out case. Multiple commissioners deriding the process, lack of transparency, and potential minority vote dilution, and potential voiding of commission compactness and COI guidelines. Of course, when the map gets thrown out 4-3 they are apparently required to order the commission start over this time under their supervision, whereas congressionally the court can take over completely.

Don't see where there any VRA issues?
Columbus has one majority black district. Cincinatti has a 40% black. It may be possible to keep a majority black district there but it would  just make more sense to keep it whole. Cleveland has one majority district and one plurality district.

State house side of things. Those district's components are at time very packed, and can be reduced to increase influence in neighboring seats. It was much worse on the initial map, but someone told them to be less ignorant in Cleveland. HD1 is majority white and can be made into an AA seat, especially from HD2. HD18 is >70% AA whereas her neighboring AA seats are only about 50% or less - more than reason to disperse the population if not try for a new AA seat, especially since these seats are all overpopulated. The GOPs decision to move a seat from Cleveland to Columbus probably instigated this particular issue.

That seems like a fine point of attack right there. And nesting requirements mean ordering changes to one map means changing the other.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/acluohio/status/1441113679643041798?s=20

That was fast. 4-3 strikedown incoming.

[Oryxslayer]

It's a beauty. That's exactly why it won't happen.

You're correct. I'd be fine with even a 9R-6D map, but Ohio Republicans seem set to draw a 10R-5D map. (Is a 11R-4D map realistically possible?)

11R-4D? I suppose.
You'd need to play games with the rest-of-Franklin CD and send it into Western Ohio. Then you uber-pack Ds in NW OH and then have the mandatory Hamilton CD.
The will for this would be hard to find since it would guarantee Ds create a more "non-partisan" process through popular referendum.

Also, as we just saw with the state Leg, the maps would almost certainly get punted to the Ohio Supreme Court - which is established to have sole Jurisdiction over the lines, where we expect the inevitable O'Conner smackdown. The Court additionally does not need to return authority to commission congressionally, whereas if it strikes down the leg maps the commission must once again draw lines, only this time under supervision.

[Oryxslayer]

Tomorrow is the deadline for the Congressional map, right?

Yes, the legislature has a deadline of September 30. Since that will obviously not be met, a commission has until October 31 to draw a map. If they fail, then the legislature has until November 30 to pass a temporary (4 year) map.

They're seriously just going skip straight to drawing a 4 year partisan map, aren't they?

Before that happens the legislators have a second chance to pass a map. Their first time, surrendered tomorrow, must pass by a 60% vote with 50% of each party minimum supporting. The second try is 60% with 1/3 of the dissenting party. The commission map must be approved by at least 2 members of each party.

After all this fails, then they can go simple majority 4-year via legislature. However, if everyone's just going to act in contempt of the rules and wait for the 4-year, then it's obvious the maps will get sued just as fast as the legislative lines. Which means the GOP is playing with fire since the OHSC has sole authority to arbitrate these things under the redistricting initiative, the maps will get chucked away by O'Conner, and unlike the legislative redistricting procedures the court is not obligated to return power over Congressional lines back to commission.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OhFairDistricts/status/1443576553636433923?s=20

The general composition of these 15 districts has come up many times in this thread...which means it won't come to pass except via O'Conner.

[Oryxslayer]

No chance GOP does that. Do they create a new Cincy district? Probably

The Cincinnati seat is all but inevitable give the language of the law, but under the same laws the snake-by-the-lake can't return, potentially dooming Kaptur depending on the orientation.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1453736539943424018?s=20

Hey, I personally recognize that map...

[Oryxslayer]

Well the Oh Supreme will get involved no matter what happens, given the contempt demonstrated and the current trajectory of the legislative lines.

[Oryxslayer]

I stand corrected then.

It's in regards to cities between 95% and 105% of a district - only matters for Cleveland and Columbus here, but mattered more on lower level maps. Frankly, the map that does weird sh**t to Columbus could be argued to break this most simple of principles - for no partisan benefit.

[Oryxslayer]

The inevitable lawsuit has arrived.

https://twitter.com/sophlin229/status/1466066594090692608?s=20