Ohio redistricting thread

[Former President tack50]

As per usual, decided to try to make a fair map and compact map with 2018 numbers. Here it is:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/327146eb-0778-408e-824f-4be3bc9dab31

And the statistics for the districts (using PVI and 2012-2016 composite numbers):

OH-01: 55D-45R; D+3;
OH-02: 78D-22R; D+27; 47% black, 44% white
OH-03: 55D-45R; D+3
OH-04: 65D-35R; D+14
OH-05: 51D-49R; EVEN
OH-06: 34D-66R; R+18
OH-07: 46D-54R; R+6
OH-08: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-09: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-10: 51D-49R; R+1
OH-11: 54D-46R; D+2
OH-12: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-13: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-14: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-15: 31D-69R; R+21

So in total, this map should have a lot of competitive or potentially competitive districts. In an R wave the GOP could get up to 2-13 in fact! (although 4-11 is way more likely). Similarly in a D wave Democrats can probably get up to 10-5.

[Former President tack50]

As per usual, decided to try to make a fair map and compact map with 2018 numbers. Here it is:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/327146eb-0778-408e-824f-4be3bc9dab31

And the statistics for the districts (using PVI and 2012-2016 composite numbers):

OH-01: 55D-45R; D+3;
OH-02: 78D-22R; D+27; 47% black, 44% white
OH-03: 55D-45R; D+3
OH-04: 65D-35R; D+14
OH-05: 51D-49R; EVEN
OH-06: 34D-66R; R+18
OH-07: 46D-54R; R+6
OH-08: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-09: 48D-52R; R+4
OH-10: 51D-49R; R+1
OH-11: 54D-46R; D+2
OH-12: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-13: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-14: 37D-63R; R+15
OH-15: 31D-69R; R+21

So in total, this map should have a lot of competitive or potentially competitive districts. In an R wave the GOP could get up to 2-13 in fact! (although 4-11 is way more likely). Similarly in a D wave Democrats can probably get up to 10-5.

In a perfectly neutral year how many seats would the Ds win?

It would depend on a lot of factors like trends, incumbency and what not.

Still, for a perfectly neutral year in 2022 I think Dems should win the 2 safe seats (2 and 4); the 2 borderline safe seats (1 and 3), the likely seat (11) and the tossup 5th district; for a total of 6 Dem districts on a purely neutral year. The 10th I think would go GOP by an incredibly narrow margin but still goes R by like 0.1 or something. It would be a true pure tossup.

So basically in a neutral year it should be 6D-9R on average; but 5D-10R and 7D-8R are both perfectly doable.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

[Former President tack50]

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

Is that just a "the spirit of the reform" kind of thing or does the map break any other rules? Does the map specify anything that say, you can't just draw "skinny" districts or that the districts shall be reasonably compact or something like that?

Those 2 can be easily fixed for what is worth, with little impact in the partisanship in fact; here is a revised map:



New altered districts:

OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D)
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D)
OH-13: R+4 (53R-47D)

This makes the 13th drop from R+5 to R+4 but that's about it (and tbf that is an overstatement. If adding decimals it goes from R+4.6 to R+4.4 so the difference is minimal)

[Former President tack50]

No one has made one yet, so here is my attempt at a "maximum R gerrymander"; assuming 2016-style results are here to stay (which seems likely judging from 2020).

This map is a 12R-2D-1S map. I don't know if a pure 13-2 is doable or not. Also one of the R districts is far from safe, and can be flipped by Dems in a wave



OH-01: Trump+17, R+10
OH-02: Trump+6, R+3
OH-03: Clinton+43, D+19 (34% black)
OH-04: Trump+12, R+5
OH-05: Trump+11, R+3
OH-06: Trump+33, R+12
OH-07: Trump+20. R+5
OH-08: Trump+41, R+19
OH-09: Trump+13, R+3
OH-10: Trump+14, R+7
OH-11: Clinton+60, D+29 (48% black)
OH-12: Trump+33, R+15
OH-13: Trump+2, EVEN
OH-14: Trump+14, R+4
OH-15: Trump+10, R+5

I did not consider incumbent residences in this map, so maybe I put several R representatives in the same district or stuff like that, But something along these lines is the best possible map for Rs I think.

[Former President tack50]

My attempt at a fair-ish map, although it could also be seen as a light D gerrymander since I've tended to take decisions that benefit dems for the most part



https://davesredistricting.org/join/5be92b90-47cd-4243-8612-39e0add221a9

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Clinton+11, D+3
OH-02 (Cincinnati suburbs): Trump+33, R+18
OH-03 (Columbus): Clinton+36, D+16 (27% black)
OH-04 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+41, R+17
OH-05 (West lake shore, Toledo): Clinton+3, D+4
OH-06 (East rural Ohio): Trump+37, R+14
OH-07 (Canton & Youngstown): Trump+17, R+5
OH-08 (West rural Ohio):  Trump+46, R+20
OH-09 (West Cleveland Suburbs): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-10 (Dayton): Trump+11, R+6
OH-11 (Cleveland): Clinton+61, D+29 (48% black)
OH-12 (North Columbus suburbs): Trump+2, R+3
OH-13 (Akron): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-14 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+15, R+4
OH-15 (Southeast Rural Ohio): Trump+40, R+14

[Former President tack50]

I've tried to make a Republican gerrymander that would comply with the ruling if I understand correctly? Basically I tried to avoid splitting the counties mentioned in the ruling (or split them as little as possible). I also did not pay any attention to incumbency or stuff like that.

I am still not sure if the map would be legal or not and it might be a bit of a "dummymander" (there are a ton of Trump by mid to high single digits districts) but still; I imagine a riskier map would be better?



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f7de4cd2-ef51-4655-b937-e08e4f3a3da9

OH-01: Biden+15, D+4
OH-02: Trump+36, R+20
OH-03: Biden+45, D+20
OH-04: Trump+31, R+18
OH-05: Trump+7, R+5
OH-06: Trump+19, R+11
OH-07: Trump+10, R+7
OH-08: Trump+25, R+16
OH-09: Trump+20, R+11
OH-10: Trump+17, R+10
OH-11: Biden+58, D+28 (45% black VAP)
OH-12: Trump+6, R+5
OH-13: Trump+5, R+4
OH-14: Trump+15, R+9
OH-15: Trump+36, R+20

There is potential for the map to go as bad as 9R-6D or even 8R-7D in an absolutely amazing year for Dems I suppose; but under most circumstances the map should hold at 12R-3D which is just 1 seat concession to Dems compared to the initial map?

[Former President tack50]

I've tried to make a Republican gerrymander that would comply with the ruling if I understand correctly? Basically I tried to avoid splitting the counties mentioned in the ruling (or split them as little as possible). I also did not pay any attention to incumbency or stuff like that.

This map wouldn't comply with the ruling because it still packs Dem voters in Franklin, cracks them in Hamilton, and the 7th and 9th seats are clearly drawn to avoid a Dem leaning seat in suburban Cuyahoga. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP tried to submit this something like this, given how they're acting with the state leg maps.

For what is worth the Hamilton crack is just an attempt to try to make that district as Republican as possible; though I will say that given the result is still pretty much Safe D (unless 2020 was a big fluke in the area) I guess it's an optional thing to do.

And the Franklin pack, while relatively obvious, still does seem somewhat justifyable to me? (I am not familiar at all with the area, but "Rest of Franklin+southern suburbs" seems reasonable on a vacuum?)
 
I agree the 7th-9th thing is probably too obvious though. (or the 13th I drew for that matter, to a lesser extent)