Ohio redistricting thread

[Tintrlvr]

Here's my fair map of Ohio:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0153189a-de09-4cfd-84c1-de9fb53e9f0e

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Lean D
OH-02 (Hamilton): Safe R
OH-03 (Dayton): Likely R
OH-04 (Lima): Safe R
OH-05 (Toledo): Likely D
OH-06 (Columbus): Safe D
OH-07 (Gahanna): Lean D
OH-08 (Chillicothe): Safe R
OH-09 (Zanesville): Safe R
OH-10 (Mansfield): Safe R
OH-11 (Cleveland): Safe D
OH-12 (Painesville): Likely R
OH-13 (Akron and Canton): Lean D
OH-14 (Lorain): Lean R
OH-15 (Youngstown): Toss-up/Tilt D**

**Solidly Trump district but still seems pretty D-leaning downballot.

[Tintrlvr]

yeah just ran with it, you may be right.

Essentially I think that the new distributions for 2018 would be

1 Cincinnati
2 Columbus (1 safe D, one tossup trending D)
3 Lakeshore + Cleveland (some arrangement of Toledo, Lorain, and Cuyahoga)
1 NE Ohio

That sounds better.

Right. The real problematic set is two Toledo-Lakeshore Democratic districts. That's not possible. There can be one Toledo-Lakeshore district west of Lorain (Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie is almost exactly one seat), then one Lorain-Cuyahoga district and one Cuyahoga-only district (maybe dipping slightly into Summit and/or Lake but not by a material amount).

[Tintrlvr]

I don't love OH-09 diving all of the way into the Columbus suburbs. Despite the county lines, NW Fairfield County should be in one of the Columbus-based districts. The cities of Columbus and Reynoldsburg both cross county lines into Fairfield County, so it's just a matter of whether you prioritize counties or municipal boundaries. Pickerington should probably go in a Columbus-based district, too.

OH-03 is a bit awkward, too. I would try to have the cut into the Cincinnati suburban ring come from OH-06 into Clermont County and then put more or all of Greene County into OH-03. Alternatively, if you're going to cut from Dayton into the Cincinnati ring counties, it should be into Warren County (Franklin, Springboro), which is sort of Dayton suburbia and is a straight shot on I-75 from Dayton.

[Tintrlvr]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

[Tintrlvr]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

"Compactness" is just a proxy for COIs. It doesn't have value in and of itself. Aesthetics as an inherent matter (as opposed to how they might implicate COIs) aren't a consideration for redistricting.

[Tintrlvr]

Torie, I think your OH-07 is illegal. Every district has to either be entirely contained within a single county or include at least one whole county. OH-07 only has parts of three different counties.

[Tintrlvr]

Hypothetical Ohio Fair Map



I think it's illegal though, bc the 13th cedes just a little bit of Lorain County to the 10th for population equity. I'm not sure how to get around that, assuming that Cuyahoga shouldn't be split thrice. Either way, lots of Competitive districts. The 8, 12, 13, and 5 were all likely razor close this past year. With the first 3 potentially being Clinton/Trump and the 5th being Trump/Biden. I think only the 13th and 5th actually flipped this year though.

You can split one county (only) between three districts under the rules (otherwise I think drawing the NE of the map would be impossible within the rules). Just peel some of the far east of Cuyahoga County into OH-14.

I do think OH-5 should slide around the eastern suburbs of Columbus. The counties to the west of Franklin are basically entirely outside of the built up area around Columbus.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's my fair map of Ohio. Base case is probably 9R-6D, but plausibly could get as extreme as 12R-3D or 6R-9D if there were a real landslide for one party or the other. (2016 Senate is actually 13R-2D by CD but I don't think a Republican could win the Cincinnati district any more; 2018 Senate is 6R-9D.)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/407498b4-170e-48e3-9fd6-2ed0cfefad09



Edit: Modified the border between 6 and 7 on the DRA version - doesn't affect any other districts or partisanship at all but I think is neater (keeps the Ohio Valley entirely in 6).

[Tintrlvr]

Better look:

Numbers on that 3rd?

The way the city of Columbus is chopped can't possibly comply with the requirement that you make an effort to put as much of that city in one CD as reasonably practicable counting surrounded cities as part of the city.

What is the 4th's numbers in 2020?

I tried recreating it on DRA. I think it's about Trump+6 (52-46). Which doesn't feel very reassuring for the Republicans given that it includes the fastest D-trending part of the state in southern Delaware County. OH-15 is also only around the same partisanship, too, though with an area that is less D-trending so maybe less risky.

Really don't understand what they intend in Franklin County. They clearly carved out the very most Democratic parts of Franklin County into other districts, but OH-03 is still Biden+20 so still unwinnable for the Republicans, and it puts both OH-04 and OH-15 at risk.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if the 15th is winnable for Ds. Probably not, but the  Biden % could be quite high, given how lightly populated in density terms the non-Franklin portion is.

I edited my post - went back and calculated and it's actually marginally more D than the proposed 4th in 2020 (around Trump+5), though with less favorable trends.

[Tintrlvr]

Not hold a primary and just have a general election?   That sounds horrible, how would that work?

Would party officials just hand pick the candidates to go on the ballot?

Make Smoke-Filled Rooms Great Again

Tbh primaries are one of the worst things to happen to democracy in America. Europeans who push for them, be careful what you wish for.