Ohio redistricting thread

[politicallefty]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

Very unclear.  OTOH there is a strong, organized, unexpectedly visible campaign against it and no real campaign for it.  Then again, people tend to default to voting yes on complex ballot issues they don’t really understand, so who knows?

[Oryxslayer]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

Very unclear.  OTOH there is a strong, organized, unexpectedly visible campaign against it and no real campaign for it.  Then again, people tend to default to voting yes on complex ballot issues they don’t really understand, so who knows?

As I said earlier,  states more conservative than Ohio handily rejected measures like this in 2022. The electorate does not like losing its power. The state legislators know this of course,  which is why it's a Hail Mary play, and why they fought hard to separate it from the November ballot to reduce turnout.  That all said, I would expect a blowout in favor of No before I expect a Yes win.

[Torie]

Jim Jordan has found a home, and there was great rejoicing. Badger will be the next Dem nominee to run against him, and the debates between there will become the stuff of legend. It may well be that just as was the case with Buckley and Vidal, prudence will dictate that they will need to debate from separate rooms. Meanwhile, map junkies will be amazed that the array of OH-03, OH-12, and OH-15 come within 99 people of a perfect county fit, while seamlessly nesting and covering the Columbus MSA.

Mr. X immediately files a lawsuit to make Jordan’s district more Dem, and is sanctioned by the Ohio Supremes for his hubris upon motion, by yes, you guessed it, Jim Jordan, thereby causing his curriculum vitae to be further enhanced by the twin titles of legislative and judicial terrorist (Trump of course retaining his iron grip on the executive terrorist title).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jim Jordan has found a home, and there was great rejoicing. Badger will be the next Dem nominee to run against him, and the debates between there will become the stuff of legend. It may well be that just as was the case with Buckley and Vidal, prudence will dictate that they will need to debate from separate rooms. Meanwhile, map junkies will be amazed that the array of OH-03, OH-12, and OH-15 come within 99 people of a perfect county fit, while seamlessly nesting and covering the Columbus MSA.

Mr. X immediately files a lawsuit to make Jordan’s district more Dem, and is sanctioned by the Ohio Supremes for his hubris upon motion, by yes, you guessed it, Jim Jordan, thereby causing his curriculum vitae to be further enhanced by the twin titles of legislative and judicial terrorist (Trump of course retaining his grip on the executive terrorist title).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

Yeah, but now you’ve completely drawn out Balderson and left him no where he can even realistically carpetbag to  

[Torie]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

[politicallefty]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

Very unclear.  OTOH there is a strong, organized, unexpectedly visible campaign against it and no real campaign for it.  Then again, people tend to default to voting yes on complex ballot issues they don’t really understand, so who knows?

As I said earlier,  states more conservative than Ohio handily rejected measures like this in 2022. The electorate does not like losing its power. The state legislators know this of course,  which is why it's a Hail Mary play, and why they fought hard to separate it from the November ballot to reduce turnout.  That all said, I would expect a blowout in favor of No before I expect a Yes win.

I'm aware of the states that have voted for and against. What the hell happened in Florida in 2006? I know it's Florida, but still.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

[Torie]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

OH-13 lacks representation, and Zanesville is not all that different from Youngstown and environs is it (e.g. no gay pride parades)? What we cannot do is mess with the MSA's! That is the constraint.

[Roll Roons]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

Why would Carey have more pull than Balderson?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

Why would Carey have more pull than Balderson?

Before getting elected to the House, he was an extremely well-connected coal industry lobbyist and I believe he is also the Chairman of the Ohio Coal Association’s Board of Directors.  Balderson was some random rural state legislator who was never supposed to win, but eeked by in a clown car primary against a bunch of Delaware and Franklin County Republicans.  However, now that he’s there, they’re not gonna just up and drew him out.  Still, Carey has far more pull.  

The perfect is the enemy of the good.  

He can carpetbag to OH-15 in any event. Much of his district is already in it. Or OH-06, and Johnson can move to the northern part of his existing district.

Johnson lives way down in Marietta and represents much of OH-6 already, he ain’t moving.  And if we say OH-15 belongs to Balderson then you’ve drawn out Carey who has even more pull than Balderson.

I’m already assuming Davidson and Weinstrup are fine carpetbagging in your latest map, lest you think I am utterly without mercy

OH-13 lacks representation, and Zanesville is not all that different from Youngstown and environs is it (e.g. no gay pride parades)? What we cannot do is mess with the MSA's! That is the constraint.

Your OH-13 has too many locals who’d jump at the chance to run in that open seat.  Balderson would likely lose the primary, especially if Stark County Republicans only run one or two of their own (as is highly likely).  Balderson could quite conceivably finish a distant third or even fourth in your OH-13.

[Torie]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

[Nyvin]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

The Columbus area is the only part of the map that's really Republican-friendly.  I'd say the rest is pretty neutral.   Maybe the Dayton district nudges in the GOP's direction a little.

[GALeftist]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

[Torie]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

[Tekken_Guy]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

[Mr.Phips]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

Why don’t Democrats just drop the original suit?

[Torie]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

[Tekken_Guy]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

How exactly are Republicans going to handle the ruling? Ruling in favor of the Republicans overturns the ruling and reinstates the current map. Ruling in favor of the Democrats would order a redraw. Do they hackishly side with the Democrats so that a redraw can happen, or do they side with the GOP in a way that allows a redraw anyway? Or do they just reinstate the current map?

[Torie]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

How exactly are Republicans going to handle the ruling? Ruling in favor of the Republicans overturns the ruling and reinstates the current map. Ruling in favor of the Democrats would order a redraw. Do they hackishly side with the Democrats so that a redraw can happen, or do they side with the GOP in a way that allows a redraw anyway? Or do they just reinstate the current map?

They stall until the Pubs pass a new map, mooting the prior case.

[Tekken_Guy]

So what do we think will happen with Huffman v. Neiman? It was GVR'd in light of Moore v. Harper, but it would seem that that decision only further confirms that OHSC did, in fact, have the authority to strike down Ohio congressional districts as partisan gerrymanders. Will it matter?

Only the extreme interpretation of SLT would have reversed the Ohio S. Ct. ruling, which nobody endorsed. That is because the Ohio Constitution actually has language that proscribes unduly favoring one party, just like NYS. So the ruling is alive and well, albeit toothless apparently.

A new map will probably be drawn, which the now more Pub friendly court will find does not unduly favor one party. Just how hackish that decision will be depends on what the map looks like. If it both does now follow neutral redistricting principles and screws the Dems, and the S. Ct. upholds it, that will be very hackish.

The OHSC can just reverse the ruling on the same ground the North Carolina court did which would reinstate the existing map.

They could, but the Pubs probably want more (they were restrained by the "Rino" judge now emeritus and pulling out weeds in her rose garden), so a new map is more probable. The issue now is whether the new map is a pig or a hog. Ohio and NC are the great equalizers to reverses elsewhere for the Pubs. Line drawing is going to get worse before it gets better. It's war out there.

How exactly are Republicans going to handle the ruling? Ruling in favor of the Republicans overturns the ruling and reinstates the current map. Ruling in favor of the Democrats would order a redraw. Do they hackishly side with the Democrats so that a redraw can happen, or do they side with the GOP in a way that allows a redraw anyway? Or do they just reinstate the current map?

They stall until the Pubs pass a new map, mooting the prior case.

Even North Carolina waited for a green light from the court before redrawing.

[Torie]

These two maps score identically based on the algorithm I use, and have the same partisan division of the spoils. Which do you like better and why, the top or the bottom?



The version below in a most aesthetic and seamless manner causes OH-08 to cease to be competitive, but it fails for two reasons: 1) it has one extra county road cut between county seats (you have to go through OH-08 on the main highway to get from Akron in OH-07 to Cleveland in OH-11 in this version, while you don’t in the prior versions), and 2) even if the maps scored the same, when maps otherwise score identically, the one with the most partisan proportionality based on statewide percentages wins, and moving OH-08 from competitive to safe Pub is going in the “wrong” direction on that. So, the algorithm works well here.

[bagelman]

I hate both of them. Why do you like making OH GOP gerrymanders so much?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

I like the map, but tbh that northeast OH config is pretty favorable to Dems; it keeps both OH-09 and OH-13 (renamed as OH-07 on your map) as competitive seats, in addition to creating 2 new competitive districts in Northeast OH (OH-08 and OH-14). I guess one could argue that trends in Northeast Ohio have generally been poor for Democrats, and that in time, all OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, and OH-14 will all become strongly R-leaning.

I would also be curious how much black population OH-14 takes from OH-11 here? Taking too many blacks out of OH-11 could make it less functional and be a VRA and/or 14th amendment violation.

I'm personally curious if the OH GOP would be willing to split Franklin County 3-ways? Both their original map and replacement map only split the County between 2 districts; one being the Dem pack nested entirely within the County and the other pairing the rest of the County with rurals. While you can make a decently R-leaning seat by pairing the rest of the County with deep red rurals, the only way to make a truly safe map would be to crack the County 3-ways.

Ofc the other big question is are Rs willing to just cede a Cinci seat to Dems at this point?

[TML]

I hate both of them. Why do you like making OH GOP gerrymanders so much?

I think it's probably because he thinks the likely end result would be a GOP gerrymander.