Ohio redistricting thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

[Skill and Chance]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop with a future redraw.

It's likely their last chance for a generation.  There's nothing to lose.  This isn't like TX or GA where they can wait for more favorable judges mid-decade. 

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1460768863591845889

[S019]

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1460768863591845889

It's not like the map isn't going to end up in court anyways, so I'm not really sure what they gain from doing this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would be the biggest self-own if this forced the GOP leadership to work with Democrats and made the maps fairer as a result.

[lfromnj]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

Really depends, probably worth hoping with the lawsuit for the congressional map but with regards to the state senate map Dems really should have just taken it. Yes a lawsuit may result in a Safe D instead of a Lean D Dayton district and maybe a safer West Cleveland district by adding Lakewood back in but both of these seats are Biden +5 and Biden +8 and hardly unwinnable for Democrats. On the other hand a redraw could very well risk the 4th winnable Columbus seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

Really depends, probably worth hoping with the lawsuit for the congressional map but with regards to the state senate map Dems really should have just taken it. Yes a lawsuit may result in a Safe D instead of a Lean D Dayton district and maybe a safer West Cleveland district by adding Lakewood back in but both of these seats are Biden +5 and Biden +8 and hardly unwinnable for Democrats. On the other hand a redraw could very well risk the 4th winnable Columbus seat.

Hard disagree, these maps are all awful and a non-gerrymandered map can only help in the Columbus area.

[lfromnj]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

Really depends, probably worth hoping with the lawsuit for the congressional map but with regards to the state senate map Dems really should have just taken it. Yes a lawsuit may result in a Safe D instead of a Lean D Dayton district and maybe a safer West Cleveland district by adding Lakewood back in but both of these seats are Biden +5 and Biden +8 and hardly unwinnable for Democrats. On the other hand a redraw could very well risk the 4th winnable Columbus seat.

Hard disagree, these maps are all awful and a non-gerrymandered map can only help in the Columbus area.

The 4 senate districts in Columbus are underpopulated by 50k. It can very easily take Madison or Pickaway county and be based in the South part of the county while probably not trending much for the decade.. Instead right now it is a Biden +2 seat based more in the West and NW with Union county with mostly rapid movement leftwards so far. Is it worth risking a Biden seat that could flip D in order to make 2 Lean to Likely D seats at the presidential level Safe D? Even then the West Cleveland seat is pretty compact anyway.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1461434777509244940?s=20

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1461434777509244940?s=20

If Democrats were smart they would have voted for this map to lock it in for ten years. It had dummymander written all over it.

Then again, if Republicans were smart they would have drawn as aggressively as they would a ten-year map. They gave Democrats an opening with that map and they’re lucky they didn’t take advantage of it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why didn't democrats vote for it?

[S019]

Why didn't democrats vote for it?

Because they plan on suing in court to get a map that is more compliant with the rules?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why didn't democrats vote for it?

Because they plan on suing in court to get a map that is more compliant with the rules?

Ok but the court will likely be more pro-gerrymandering post 2022 and republicans will make an even more egregious map in 2026 and the courts won't strike that down

[S019]

Why didn't democrats vote for it?

Because they plan on suing in court to get a map that is more compliant with the rules?

Ok but the court will likely be more pro-gerrymandering post 2022 and republicans will make an even more egregious map in 2026 and the courts won't strike that down

Maybe Dems try to get an actual commission on the ballot in the meantime?

[Stuart98]

Why didn't democrats vote for it?

Because they plan on suing in court to get a map that is more compliant with the rules?

Ok but the court will likely be more pro-gerrymandering post 2022 and republicans will make an even more egregious map in 2026 and the courts won't strike that down

Won't a court-drawn map be in place for 10 years? If it's only in place for four then the 2018 initiative was even dumber than I thought.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Democrats were smart they would have voted for this map to lock it in for ten years. It had dummymander written all over it.

That's utterly idiotic. The Cincinnati, suburban Columbus, and Dayton seats might trend a couple points Democrat by the end of the decade, but that's not enough to make it a "dummymander". Besides, by that same logic that swingy Akron-based seat will probably trend R.

This is an egregious gerrymander and only an utterly pathetic and ineffectual party would lend it credibility by voting for it. I don't know what the situation will be in 2025, but I'd much rather take another shot at a fair map then (whether through the legislature or the courts) that lock in this awful excuse of a map. Thank God Democrats aren't as spineless as you want them to be.

[Torie]

I appreciate the Ohio Supreme Court is Pub friendly, but I cannot image how that court could find that OH-01 as drawn is anything other than a text book case of the lines unduly favoring one party. Its butt ugly erosity has absolutely nothing going for it other than illegal Pubmandering. I am amazed the Pubs were that at once stupid and arrogant enough to go there. I guess we will find out the hack quotient of the Ohio high court soon enough. I hope they blow that CD out, if only to set a good example for the NYS high court, that will be charged with applying a remarkably similar NYS redistricting law.

The balance of the map I think is quite bullet proof, and I would note that they even eschewed tri-chopping any counties, including Franklin, thus rendering OH-15 rather more marginal than what would be the case otherwise. They also made OH-09 more marginal than it perhaps needed to be. How selfless of them.

[😥]

What are the odds that Kaptur in the end gets Biden district or very narrowly Trump+3 or less district?

[Lognog]

Is there anyway the Supreme Court can act in time for 2022? maybe 2024?

[Mr.Phips]

I appreciate the Ohio Supreme Court is Pub friendly, but I cannot image how that court could find that OH-01 as drawn is anything other than a text book case of the lines unduly favoring one party. Its butt ugly erosity has absolutely nothing going for it other than illegal Pubmandering. I am amazed the Pubs were that at once that stupid and arrogant enough to go there. I guess we will find out the hack quotient of the Ohio high court soon enough. I hope they blow that CD out, if only to set a good example for the NYS high court, that will be charged with applying a remarkably similar NYS redistricting law.

The balance of the map I think is quite bullet proof, and I would note that they even eschewed tri-chopping any counties, including Franklin, thus rendering OH-15 rather more marginal than what would be the case otherwise. They also made OH-09 more marginal than it perhaps needed to be. How selfless of them.

As I’ve said before, they easily could have drawn a clean map that confines Dems to three seats (Cincinatti, Cleveland, and Columbus) and the court would be fine with it.

[politicallefty]

I appreciate the Ohio Supreme Court is Pub friendly, but I cannot image how that court could find that OH-01 as drawn is anything other than a text book case of the lines unduly favoring one party. Its butt ugly erosity has absolutely nothing going for it other than illegal Pubmandering. I am amazed the Pubs were that at once stupid and arrogant enough to go there. I guess we will find out the hack quotient of the Ohio high court soon enough. I hope they blow that CD out, if only to set a good example for the NYS high court, that will be charged with applying a remarkably similar NYS redistricting law.

The balance of the map I think is quite bullet proof, and I would note that they even eschewed tri-chopping any counties, including Franklin, thus rendering OH-15 rather more marginal than what would be the case otherwise. They also made OH-09 more marginal than it perhaps needed to be. How selfless of them.

I'm in agreement with you on OH-01. Hamilton County can contain a district within its boundaries. There is no justification beyond partisanship for such a district. I would also argue that the redistricting provisions should require a competitive Akron-based district. That split of Summit County is an abomination. If they'd kept Summit whole and split Medina, I suppose it would be a begrudgingly acceptable district.

As for tri-chops, they did tri-chop Cuyahoga County. OH-14 sneaks in and grabs most of Cleveland's southern suburbs within the county.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1461743956350414852

Lmao

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I appreciate the Ohio Supreme Court is Pub friendly, but I cannot image how that court could find that OH-01 as drawn is anything other than a text book case of the lines unduly favoring one party. Its butt ugly erosity has absolutely nothing going for it other than illegal Pubmandering. I am amazed the Pubs were that at once stupid and arrogant enough to go there. I guess we will find out the hack quotient of the Ohio high court soon enough. I hope they blow that CD out, if only to set a good example for the NYS high court, that will be charged with applying a remarkably similar NYS redistricting law.

The balance of the map I think is quite bullet proof, and I would note that they even eschewed tri-chopping any counties, including Franklin, thus rendering OH-15 rather more marginal than what would be the case otherwise. They also made OH-09 more marginal than it perhaps needed to be. How selfless of them.

I'm in agreement with you on OH-01. Hamilton County can contain a district within its boundaries. There is no justification beyond partisanship for such a district. I would also argue that the redistricting provisions should require a competitive Akron-based district. That split of Summit County is an abomination. If they'd kept Summit whole and split Medina, I suppose it would be a begrudgingly acceptable district.

As for tri-chops, they did tri-chop Cuyahoga County. OH-14 sneaks in and grabs most of Cleveland's southern suburbs within the county.

Yeah, this map is still a pretty blatant gerrymander.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1462089497097781253?t=jcgJ3cKr3dWqPAkFiISI...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone got a shapefile for the new map?