Ohio redistricting thread

[BoiseBoy]

This Breitbart article claims that an "anonymous GOP source" has seen a map that Gov. DeWine plans to introduce next week. Supposedly, Jim Jordan's district gets pulled into Columbus which would threaten him, and Mike Turner is put into the same district as Warren Davidson.

Of course, this article really serves as another "this Republican secretly wants to help Pelosi let's vote for his MAGA challenger" rally piece, so I doubt it is accurate at all, but such a map would be interesting to say the least.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/01/rigged-ohios-dewine-others-consider-redistricting-map-that-would-eliminate-jim-jordans-district-solidify-pelosis-majority/

[Roll Roons]

This Breitbart article claims that an "anonymous GOP source" has seen a map that Gov. DeWine plans to introduce next week. Supposedly, Jim Jordan's district gets pulled into Columbus which would threaten him, and Mike Turner is put into the same district as Warren Davidson.

Of course, this article really serves as another "this Republican secretly wants to help Pelosi let's vote for his MAGA challenger" rally piece, so I doubt it is accurate at all, but such a map would be interesting to say the least.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/01/rigged-ohios-dewine-others-consider-redistricting-map-that-would-eliminate-jim-jordans-district-solidify-pelosis-majority/

That alone should make anyone take this with a huge grain of salt.

[Devils30]

No chance GOP does that. Do they create a new Cincy district? Probably

[Oryxslayer]

No chance GOP does that. Do they create a new Cincy district? Probably

The Cincinnati seat is all but inevitable give the language of the law, but under the same laws the snake-by-the-lake can't return, potentially dooming Kaptur depending on the orientation.

[BoiseBoy]

This Breitbart article claims that an "anonymous GOP source" has seen a map that Gov. DeWine plans to introduce next week. Supposedly, Jim Jordan's district gets pulled into Columbus which would threaten him, and Mike Turner is put into the same district as Warren Davidson.

Of course, this article really serves as another "this Republican secretly wants to help Pelosi let's vote for his MAGA challenger" rally piece, so I doubt it is accurate at all, but such a map would be interesting to say the least.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/01/rigged-ohios-dewine-others-consider-redistricting-map-that-would-eliminate-jim-jordans-district-solidify-pelosis-majority/

That alone should make anyone take this with a huge grain of salt.

Well it's being blindly shared on Twitter so a lot of people are really, really easy to trick it seems.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/Alex__Ebert/status/1446232004622696452?s=20

[lfromnj]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

[Torie]

This Breitbart article claims that an "anonymous GOP source" has seen a map that Gov. DeWine plans to introduce next week. Supposedly, Jim Jordan's district gets pulled into Columbus which would threaten him, and Mike Turner is put into the same district as Warren Davidson.

Of course, this article really serves as another "this Republican secretly wants to help Pelosi let's vote for his MAGA challenger" rally piece, so I doubt it is accurate at all, but such a map would be interesting to say the least.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/01/rigged-ohios-dewine-others-consider-redistricting-map-that-would-eliminate-jim-jordans-district-solidify-pelosis-majority/

That alone should make anyone take this with a huge grain of salt.

"UPDATE 9:40 p.m. ET

LaRose spokesman Rob Nichols disputed the above report in its entirety after publication reaching out to Breitbart News to say it is not accurate. “You’ve been lied to, your sources are terrible, and everything you’ve been told is wrong,” Nichols said.

LaRose is Ohio’s Secretary of State."

[Mr.Phips]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

[lfromnj]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

[Mr.Phips]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

I think they moved it to a seat the Biden barely won or Trump narrowly won by adding parts of an adjacent county.

[lfromnj]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

I think they moved it to a seat the Biden barely won or Trump narrowly won by adding parts of an adjacent county.

An adjacent county has to be added . Infact 2 exurbs could have been added and they would have had less deviation. Surprised they didn't.  Overall I think Columbus is pretty fair with 4 Biden seats. Its on Ohio Democrats to win them.

Also I probably wouldn't call Maharaths seat safe just because it is Maharath.Maharashtra.

But yeah other than Dayton and the Cleveland split I can't see anything too egregious

[Tekken_Guy]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

Kunze is termed out in 2024 so it won’t be her. But yeah they made it easier to stay GOP by tacking on Union. It’s very ugly and they should have just made a WWC R-trending seat in the south county.

[lfromnj]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

Kunze is termed out in 2024 so it won’t be her. But yeah they made it easier to stay GOP by tacking on Union. It’s very ugly and they should have just made a WWC R-trending seat in the south county.

Yeah the Democrats map did that but they shoved that county with downtown Columbus.

LOL.

[Mr.Phips]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

I think they moved it to a seat the Biden barely won or Trump narrowly won by adding parts of an adjacent county.

An adjacent county has to be added . Infact 2 exurbs could have been added and they would have had less deviation. Surprised they didn't.  Overall I think Columbus is pretty fair with 4 Biden seats. Its on Ohio Democrats to win them.

Also I probably wouldn't call Maharaths seat safe just because it is Maharath.Maharashtra.

But yeah other than Dayton and the Cleveland split I can't see anything too egregious

A seat Biden won by 18 and Hillary likely won by at least 10 should be close to safe even for Maharath.

[lfromnj]

For the state senate what could reasonably be ordered to be changed by O'Connor?

Cincinatti:

Basically everyone agrees the city should be its own district. No issue there.

Butler also gets most of a senate seat so that isn't contraversial by itself but then the next step comes.

Democrats want to place the swingy East Cinci white suburbs with the North black suburbs which creates a Lean D seat rapidly trending D

R's want to do West with North which creates a Likely R seat moderately trending D.

Doing the former forces the West Cinci suburbs to go snake through Butler and go quite far north.

Doing the latter allows a weird looking district but ok in that it connects the rich Eastern suburbs with Warren County. One could also use a bit of deviation and put it with Clermont  and Brown but that might mess up the rest of the map I guess.


Dayton:

Yeah that's pretty bad. There should obviously be a Safe/Likely D seat based on the seat + the western black suburbs that literally touch it.


Toledo:

No issues for either party here.

Columbus:

This one is weird. The GOP seems like it still wants 2 seats from Columbus? Democrats seem to want 4 Safe seats. However the GOP proposal isn't that greedy and seems partially focused on incumbent demand. They still did have 4 Biden seats within Franklin or Union. The third seat is a Clinton seat by 7 points as well but it is Tina Maharath's seat .I think Democrats should have considered voting for the 10 year plan based on these trends rather than letting the GOP redraw the 4 seats to make 1 Safe R seat based in this. It is a bit ugly but can be defended under keeping incumbent home's. The region itself isn't very unfair in the decade average but it definitely is GOP favorable for a 4 year term.

Toledo:

yeah one Dem seat is there.


Lorain:

I mean it is most of a seat but unfortuntaely it has to be attached to a rural county which makes it go from swing to Likely R.

Cuyahoga:

Yeah splitting Cleveland is BS and it should and can be kept exactly whole within 104.8% deviation. The GOP split Cleveland  to its benefit ,by taking 65% D areas near the airport instead of placing 75% D Lakewood into their incumbent's seat


The Akron Cuyahoga seat is weird but both parties have it and I don't fully understand it. One could argue to pair Medina with Cuyahoga and Summit with Kent. but I guess that messes up the Ashland + Wayne + Medina seat.

The last Rep proposal made Maharath’s seat Biden + 18 in order to make Kunze safe.

Safe as In Kunze safe or safe as in all decade long?

I think they moved it to a seat the Biden barely won or Trump narrowly won by adding parts of an adjacent county.

An adjacent county has to be added . Infact 2 exurbs could have been added and they would have had less deviation. Surprised they didn't.  Overall I think Columbus is pretty fair with 4 Biden seats. Its on Ohio Democrats to win them.

Also I probably wouldn't call Maharaths seat safe just because it is Maharath.Maharashtra.

But yeah other than Dayton and the Cleveland split I can't see anything too egregious

A seat Biden won by 18 and Hillary likely won by at least 10 should be close to safe even for Maharath.

Maharath's current seat is Clinton +10 as well.

[lfromnj]

This was the final Ohio Democratic proposal. They gave on the 2nd Cinci seat and gave Trumbull and Mahoning separate districts(Although Congressionally they absolutely should be together it is a bit awkward to work them in at the state senate level)

Still it is pretty disingenuous to complain about the original GOP proposal placing Dayton with a bunch of super rural counties which obviously is extremely absurd ,and then placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county. Also if the Ohio R proposal violated the VRA, I have no idea how this one didn't. It's incredibly easy and logical to create 2 black majority/plurality districts in Cleveland but the Democratic proposal didn't seem to. They wanted to crack the Eastern suburbs to create 2 Safe Dem districts as Dem voters are really packed in the East because of areas like Shaker heights including both black people and super woke whites. So funnily enough Democrats are actually "packed" in the Cleveland area not due to segregation but actually desegregation !


The second Cincinnati seat is just an unfortunate event for Democrats which is hard to create without creating  a pretty weird district in West Ohio.



Edit: The state house map is even better. So not only did Democrats want to create a Safe D district even with Pickaway county attached for the state senate but they also wanted a likely dem district in the state house by attaching Pickaway county to a bunch of 80% D areas. However it gets even better. Basically every other district in Franklin county would be underpopulated by the maximum 5%  while this district would be overpopulated so it could take in more 80% D minority areas. Basically what the NC GOP did yesterday to the state house leader. Funnily enough the district is closer to a tossup due it being a Trump friendly district demographically, even with all this work done to deny the GOP a single representative in Franklin county.

[Padfoot]

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

[Mr.Phips]

This was the final Ohio Democratic proposal. They gave on the 2nd Cinci seat and gave Trumbull and Mahoning separate districts(Although Congressionally they absolutely should be together it is a bit awkward to work them in at the state senate level)

Still it is pretty disingenuous to complain about the original GOP proposal placing Dayton with a bunch of super rural counties which obviously is extremely absurd ,and then placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county. Also if the Ohio R proposal violated the VRA, I have no idea how this one didn't. It's incredibly easy and logical to create 2 black majority/plurality districts in Cleveland but the Democratic proposal didn't seem to. They wanted to crack the Eastern suburbs to create 2 Safe Dem districts as Dem voters are really packed in the East because of areas like Shaker heights including both black people and super woke whites. So funnily enough Democrats are actually "packed" in the Cleveland area not due to segregation but actually desegregation !


The second Cincinnati seat is just an unfortunate event for Democrats which is hard to create without creating  a pretty weird district in West Ohio.



Edit: The state house map is even better. So not only did Democrats want to create a Safe D district even with Pickaway county attached for the state senate but they also wanted a likely dem district in the state house by attaching Pickaway county to a bunch of 80% D areas. However it gets even better. Basically every other district in Franklin county would be underpopulated by the maximum 5%  while this district would be overpopulated so it could take in more 80% D minority areas. Basically what the NC GOP did yesterday to the state house leader. Funnily enough the district is closer to a tossup due it being a Trump friendly district demographically, even with all this work done to deny the GOP a single representative in Franklin county.

Would Dems even have a chance at a majority at any time on their own map?

[lfromnj]

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

False, you can get closer to population equality by adding Madison as well. If you have Pickaway Madison and Grove city that would not flip all decade. The map is arguably  D friendly for Franklin because the Franklin cluster is underpopulated by a few dozen thousand . This is obviously because Kunze doesn't want working class exurban areas or maybe there's an R senator from Madison.
The Ohio GOP now can accordingly redraw . Pickaway +Franklin is 50k under deviation for 4 districts while Madison+ Pickaway +Franklin is only 1k under deviation.



This would be a pretty Safe R working class part of Columbus and exurban/rural areas in the South. The area of Columbus west of downtown actually seems to be trending R as well by the way.
+15.7 Trump in 2016, +15.9 Trump in 2020. More D friendly downballot relatively than the current district but still more R overall. I think Obama may have won it in 2012 narrowly funnily enough so its closer to Canton than North Columbus.

Kunze would have been term limited anyway in 2024 and Democrats could have possibly picked then . However they wanted a Safe D seat instead of an underpopulated swing seat.

[lfromnj]

This was the final Ohio Democratic proposal. They gave on the 2nd Cinci seat and gave Trumbull and Mahoning separate districts(Although Congressionally they absolutely should be together it is a bit awkward to work them in at the state senate level)

Still it is pretty disingenuous to complain about the original GOP proposal placing Dayton with a bunch of super rural counties which obviously is extremely absurd ,and then placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county. Also if the Ohio R proposal violated the VRA, I have no idea how this one didn't. It's incredibly easy and logical to create 2 black majority/plurality districts in Cleveland but the Democratic proposal didn't seem to. They wanted to crack the Eastern suburbs to create 2 Safe Dem districts as Dem voters are really packed in the East because of areas like Shaker heights including both black people and super woke whites. So funnily enough Democrats are actually "packed" in the Cleveland area not due to segregation but actually desegregation !


The second Cincinnati seat is just an unfortunate event for Democrats which is hard to create without creating  a pretty weird district in West Ohio.



Edit: The state house map is even better. So not only did Democrats want to create a Safe D district even with Pickaway county attached for the state senate but they also wanted a likely dem district in the state house by attaching Pickaway county to a bunch of 80% D areas. However it gets even better. Basically every other district in Franklin county would be underpopulated by the maximum 5%  while this district would be overpopulated so it could take in more 80% D minority areas. Basically what the NC GOP did yesterday to the state house leader. Funnily enough the district is closer to a tossup due it being a Trump friendly district demographically, even with all this work done to deny the GOP a single representative in Franklin county.

Would Dems even have a chance at a majority at any time on their own map?

Median seat seems to be the Stark seat so no. They also have to win both Mahoning seats. Their goal was to mostly prevent a GOP 3/5 majority in the state house.

[Nyvin]

So what are the odds that the commission actually produces a congressional map before 10/31?  I'd say like a 0.2% chance.

[lfromnj]

So what are the odds that the commission actually produces a congressional map before 10/31?  I'd say like a 0.2% chance.

Too far of a gap to really compromise on compared to the legislative which came a bit close. 65 vs 55 R house seats compared to 7 vs 3 congressional seats.

[Padfoot]

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

False, you can get closer to population equality by adding Madison as well. If you have Pickaway Madison and Grove city that would not flip all decade. The map is arguably  D friendly for Franklin because the Franklin cluster is underpopulated by a few dozen thousand . This is obviously because Kunze doesn't want working class exurban areas or maybe there's an R senator from Madison.
The Ohio GOP now can accordingly redraw . Pickaway +Franklin is 50k under deviation for 4 districts while Madison+ Pickaway +Franklin is only 1k under deviation.



This would be a pretty Safe R working class part of Columbus and exurban/rural areas in the South. The area of Columbus west of downtown actually seems to be trending R as well by the way.
+15.7 Trump in 2016, +15.9 Trump in 2020. More D friendly downballot relatively than the current district but still more R overall. I think Obama may have won it in 2012 narrowly funnily enough so its closer to Canton than North Columbus.

Kunze would have been term limited anyway in 2024 and Democrats could have possibly picked then . However they wanted a Safe D seat instead of an underpopulated swing seat.

There's a GOP Senator living in Madison and I believe the redistricting rules say a reasonable effort needs to be made to keep him in something resembling his current district since he won't be up for election in 2022.  Madison is currently drawn with Clark & Greene and that combo still falls within the acceptable population deviation so it's extremely unlikely that Madison will be removed from its current district to balance the population of another district.  Kunze also has to be kept reasonably within her district since she isn't up for re-election in 2022 either.

With that being said we arrive back where we started.  However, I suppose there is one other alternative which is to pair Franklin with Fairfield but that would push all 4 Franklin based districts almost to the max deviation over the ideal district size and Fairfield really needs to stay with the Southeast districts since they are all underpopulated already.

[lfromnj]

placing downtown Columbus with Pickaway county

Either Pickaway or Union County has to be paired with Franklin County and neither of those counties is really a great fit with most parts of Franklin.  Under either of those pairings the best the GOP can hope for is an R leaning seat in 2022 that likely wouldn't last more than one cycle.

False, you can get closer to population equality by adding Madison as well. If you have Pickaway Madison and Grove city that would not flip all decade. The map is arguably  D friendly for Franklin because the Franklin cluster is underpopulated by a few dozen thousand . This is obviously because Kunze doesn't want working class exurban areas or maybe there's an R senator from Madison.
The Ohio GOP now can accordingly redraw . Pickaway +Franklin is 50k under deviation for 4 districts while Madison+ Pickaway +Franklin is only 1k under deviation.



This would be a pretty Safe R working class part of Columbus and exurban/rural areas in the South. The area of Columbus west of downtown actually seems to be trending R as well by the way.
+15.7 Trump in 2016, +15.9 Trump in 2020. More D friendly downballot relatively than the current district but still more R overall. I think Obama may have won it in 2012 narrowly funnily enough so its closer to Canton than North Columbus.

Kunze would have been term limited anyway in 2024 and Democrats could have possibly picked then . However they wanted a Safe D seat instead of an underpopulated swing seat.

There's a GOP Senator living in Madison and I believe the redistricting rules say a reasonable effort needs to be made to keep him in something resembling his current district since he won't be up for election in 2022.  Madison is currently drawn with Clark & Greene and that combo still falls within the acceptable population deviation so it's extremely unlikely that Madison will be removed from its current district to balance the population of another district.  Kunze also has to be kept reasonably within her district since she isn't up for re-election in 2022 either.

With that being said we arrive back where we started.  However, I suppose there is one other alternative which is to pair Franklin with Fairfield but that would push all 4 Franklin based districts almost to the max deviation over the ideal district size and Fairfield really needs to stay with the Southeast districts since they are all underpopulated already.

What about Pickaway and Adams or Union with Logan or Champaign?