Ohio redistricting thread

[WIResident]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

Here it is
https://davesredistricting.org/join/56eb4684-2c06-4eb3-9744-64321e1129e6

Illegal in Cleveland, each district must be within 1 county or include a WHOLE county.

Also arguably playing a bit fire with the VRA as a compact 46-47% black district is possible. I think your map is only like 43%.

I moved around the precincts between Lorain/Medina in my district 14 to fix that issue. Is a 40% black and 50% minority district not enough to satisfy the VRA? I would assume my Cleveland district would still elect a black Dem candidate.

[lfromnj]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

Here it is
https://davesredistricting.org/join/56eb4684-2c06-4eb3-9744-64321e1129e6

Illegal in Cleveland, each district must be within 1 county or include a WHOLE county.

Also arguably playing a bit fire with the VRA as a compact 46-47% black district is possible. I think your map is only like 43%.

I moved around the precincts between Lorain/Medina in my district 14 to fix that issue. Is a 40% black and 50% minority district not enough to satisfy the VRA? I would assume my Cleveland district would still elect a black Dem candidate.

Its most likely fine although its playing a bit close. Just a warning. You do risk a MO01 situation where a candidate can probably win with only 35-40% of the black vote.  I think that's fine and isn't a bloc vote.

[lfromnj]

@WIresident make a rotation between green/tan/blue to put more of the youngstown area in one area. Also not 100% about that semi donut Cbus district. Also I would personally put Sandusky before Erie with the Toledo district but thats your choice.

[WIResident]

@WIresident make a rotation between green/tan/blue to put more of the youngstown area in one area. Also not 100% about that semi donut Cbus district. Also I would personally put Sandusky before Erie with the Toledo district but thats your choice.

I drew up a second Ohio fair map and improved the VRA requirements for the Cleveland district. I also got rid of the donut district in Columbus and had that district pick up Springfield instead. My map ends up with 5 competitive districts; Columbus suburbs, Toledo/Bowling Green, Cleveland suburbs/Lorain, Northeast Ohio, and Akron area.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b5f708d5-45eb-442a-96c6-983db0cf2e1c

[palandio]

Inspired by Torie I did a real extrapolation of population trends until 2019 towards 2020 and this is what came out using 2020 population numbers:


I'm not too happy about Union County. When I draw the 8th and 9th I used all of Franklin and Delaware, which is the logical option regarding settlement patterns (and relatively D-friendly) and tried to make the 8th relatively Republican (staying inside Franklin and Delaware). I then needed another ca. 22k from another county. Sadly this wasn't doable going into Union without a very ugly cut into Marysville (not sure if in reality development in the county's SE could deliver ca. 20k). Hence I went into Licking county, which is probably not the worst choice.

In the NE I draw a very Democratic 11th that pushes the surrounding districts to the right.
Compared to WIResident's map my map has one district more on the Pennsylvanian border that is marginally competitive (Sherrod Brown won it). On the other hand my Akron district is 4 points more to the right than WIResident's and my Lorain/Western suburbs district is 9 points to the right which is maybe a bit excessive.

Overall this still seems about fair:
3 safe/likely D seats
1 Trump +0 tossup (by 2016 numbers) that swung to Biden
2 tilt R districts in Toledo and Akron/Canton
2 seats that voted exactly like Ohio as a whole to the East and West of Cleveland
1 seat that was slightly to the right of Ohio as a whole in 2016 and exactly like Ohio as a whole in 2020 and was a about even in Brown vs. Renacci in Dayton
1 seat around Youngstown that has moved away from the Democrats rapidly, but was won by Brown by ca. six points as late as 2018
5 safe R seats

[lfromnj]

Yes the Akron to Canton district is always a decent option and gives you a lot more leeway in the rest of NE Ohio and allows you to create 2 nice suburban Cleveland seats.

The other main question is what to do with Columbus. With 2020 population and 16 districts Franklin the best option would be to triple split Franklin although its more tricky with 15 districts.

[lfromnj]

@WIresident make a rotation between green/tan/blue to put more of the youngstown area in one area. Also not 100% about that semi donut Cbus district. Also I would personally put Sandusky before Erie with the Toledo district but thats your choice.

I drew up a second Ohio fair map and improved the VRA requirements for the Cleveland district. I also got rid of the donut district in Columbus and had that district pick up Springfield instead. My map ends up with 5 competitive districts; Columbus suburbs, Toledo/Bowling Green, Cleveland suburbs/Lorain, Northeast Ohio, and Akron area.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b5f708d5-45eb-442a-96c6-983db0cf2e1c

Your Columbus district is illegal, you aren't allowed to have a pincer where a county is entered from 2 non contigious parts. Should be fairly easy to fix.

[lfromnj]

Inspired by Torie I did a real extrapolation of population trends until 2019 towards 2020 and this is what came out using 2020 population numbers:


I'm not too happy about Union County. When I draw the 8th and 9th I used all of Franklin and Delaware, which is the logical option regarding settlement patterns (and relatively D-friendly) and tried to make the 8th relatively Republican (staying inside Franklin and Delaware). I then needed another ca. 22k from another county. Sadly this wasn't doable going into Union without a very ugly cut into Marysville (not sure if in reality development in the county's SE could deliver ca. 20k). Hence I went into Licking county, which is probably not the worst choice.

In the NE I draw a very Democratic 11th that pushes the surrounding districts to the right.
Compared to WIResident's map my map has one district more on the Pennsylvanian border that is marginally competitive (Sherrod Brown won it). On the other hand my Akron district is 4 points more to the right than WIResident's and my Lorain/Western suburbs district is 9 points to the right which is maybe a bit excessive.

Overall this still seems about fair:
3 safe/likely D seats
1 Trump +0 tossup (by 2016 numbers) that swung to Biden
2 tilt R districts in Toledo and Akron/Canton
2 seats that voted exactly like Ohio as a whole to the East and West of Cleveland
1 seat that was slightly to the right of Ohio as a whole in 2016 and exactly like Ohio as a whole in 2020 and was a about even in Brown vs. Renacci in Dayton
1 seat around Youngstown that has moved away from the Democrats rapidly, but was won by Brown by ca. six points as late as 2018
5 safe R seats

I think its fine to do a  mild triple split of Franklin if you want the Union +Delaware mashed together . Just remove the SW part of Franklin which is probably the most exurban and least developed part. Give it to the district to the south etc. FWIW I don't think it would affect partisanship too much. Either way Union doesn't have to be with Delaware I just think it should be if its reasonably possible. Also I would try to keep Holmes county together. Its such a unique area that it should be in one district although I think you kept most of the Amish parts together.

[palandio]

[...]
I think its fine to do a  mild triple split of Franklin if you want the Union +Delaware mashed together . Just remove the SW part of Franklin which is probably the most exurban and least developed part. Give it to the district to the south etc. FWIW I don't think it would affect partisanship too much. Either way Union doesn't have to be with Delaware I just think it should be if its reasonably possible. Also I would try to keep Holmes county together. Its such a unique area that it should be in one district although I think you kept most of the Amish parts together.

I think that for the moment I will leave it as it is. It seems that the SE corner of Licking county that I included in the 8th has some suburban development as well, so that's not a completely bad choice.

Thank you for suggesting the Holmes County Amish CoI. I will respect it in future maps. What I did was really just a micro-chop at a random corner of the map to come closer to population equality, but that could be done at any other place as well. It's just not worth it to post a new map because it has basically no influence on the big picture.

By the way, a slightly disconnected observation, and you may have to excuse me for my stupid un-American perspective. I tried to figure out where the suburban and exurban areas are in NE Ohio and in Central Ohio. And in NE Ohio I really had a lot of difficulties because there is a lot of ugly suburban sprawl going on that sets in gradually. Whereas around Columbus there is a much clearer line between suburban areas on the one hand and rural areas with small cities, towns, villages, settlements and farms on the other hand. (It's clear that these "rural" areas are not really rural, but they're not devoured by the sprawl either.)

[lfromnj]

[...]
I think its fine to do a  mild triple split of Franklin if you want the Union +Delaware mashed together . Just remove the SW part of Franklin which is probably the most exurban and least developed part. Give it to the district to the south etc. FWIW I don't think it would affect partisanship too much. Either way Union doesn't have to be with Delaware I just think it should be if its reasonably possible. Also I would try to keep Holmes county together. Its such a unique area that it should be in one district although I think you kept most of the Amish parts together.

I think that for the moment I will leave it as it is. It seems that the SE corner of Licking county that I included in the 8th has some suburban development as well, so that's not a completely bad choice.

Thank you for suggesting the Holmes County Amish CoI. I will respect it in future maps. What I did was really just a micro-chop at a random corner of the map to come closer to population equality, but that could be done at any other place as well. It's just not worth it to post a new map because it has basically no influence on the big picture.

By the way, a slightly disconnected observation, and you may have to excuse me for my stupid un-American perspective. I tried to figure out where the suburban and exurban areas are in NE Ohio and in Central Ohio. And in NE Ohio I really had a lot of difficulties because there is a lot of ugly suburban sprawl going on that sets in gradually. Whereas around Columbus there is a much clearer line between suburban areas on the one hand and rural areas with small cities, towns, villages, settlements and farms on the other hand. (It's clear that these "rural" areas are not really rural, but they're not devoured by the sprawl either.)

Yes its definitely tough to guess out NE Ohio. Columbus isn't easy either even if the sprawl ends  you still have weird districts.

Cincinatti-Dayton is the easiest and most obvious. The suburban sprawl stops somewhere in Mid Warren county but begins again in North Warren county which means the obvious meaning is that that sprawn in the northern half of Warren County is Dayton suburbs. As your Cinci suburban district will have leftovers that decision is therefore logically made.

Now on the other hand Northern Summit besides the very top is still more Akron Suburbia but we have to keep it with Cleveland and it isn't the worst choice. Also unlike Columbus or Cinci with clear class/racial divide lines , Cleveland has a weirder class divide line. In Cinci the upscale suburbs are the East and NE. Meanwhile in Columbus its the northern part However in Cleveland the upscale suburbs are on opposite ends of Cleveland with East Cleveland going from Shaker Heights to the western part of Geagua county. There is also the other upscale half around Lakewood to Rocky River and a few more towns. Therefore its harder to make that type of district.


Even if keeping Lorain with Cuyahoga is perfectly reasonable I would like to mention its not really Cleveland Suburbia only the border of the county really is. Its more of its own area.


But yes unique areas like Holmes County Ohio or Robeson county NC should have the highest possible attempt to avoid being split as they are literally the most obvious communities of interest. I knew it was merely a few hundred for pop equality but I just wanted to mention it and I totally understand not wanting to make that annoying rotation.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Cincinnati be placed in OH-01 or OH-02?

[Nyvin]

Will Cincinnati be placed in OH-01 or OH-02?

who knows, and what does it matter?

[I’m not Stu]

Will Cincinnati be placed in OH-01 or OH-02?

who knows, and what does it matter?

One of them will be lean R at best for the GOP.

[bagelman]

This is inspired by the Ohio lawsuit against the Census, what if Ohio must lose a seat but has to redraw temporarily old 2010 data?

[Torie]

The Ohio Constitution states that a CD map cannot "unduly" favor one party. That is one of those words that basically cedes the power to the courts. I wonder if there is any legislative history on that one, produced when the initiative was written that was passe by the voters.

[Padfoot]

The Ohio Constitution states that a CD map cannot "unduly" favor one party. That is one of those words that basically cedes the power to the courts. I wonder if there is any legislative history on that one, produced when the initiative was written that was passe by the voters.

I'm betting the Dems will sue if the next map doesn't produce at least 6 districts that are potentially winnable for them.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

My attempt at a nonpartisan map.

Sadly, this map does violate Issue 1 with the way in which Geauga and Miami Counties are split. It weirdly sees both Cordray and Romney winning a majority of seats while losing statewide.

[Padfoot]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

Including or excluding Steve Chabot?

[lfromnj]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

There really isn't a way to chop Stiver's seat from a GOP favorable perspective. that would likely mean pushing OH-03 south which makes Ohio 12th either a tossup to Safe D depending how you draw it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

There really isn't a way to chop Stiver's seat from a GOP favorable perspective. that would likely mean pushing OH-03 south which makes Ohio 12th either a tossup to Safe D depending how you draw it.

Isn't it possible for the 12th to pull out of Franklin completely?

[lfromnj]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

There really isn't a way to chop Stiver's seat from a GOP favorable perspective. that would likely mean pushing OH-03 south which makes Ohio 12th either a tossup to Safe D depending how you draw it.

Isn't it possible for the 12th to pull out of Franklin completely?

Well then somebody would have to take northern Franklin which would it make it quite swingy without parts of Southern Franklin being  in Stivers district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

There really isn't a way to chop Stiver's seat from a GOP favorable perspective. that would likely mean pushing OH-03 south which makes Ohio 12th either a tossup to Safe D depending how you draw it.

Isn't it possible for the 12th to pull out of Franklin completely?

Well then somebody would have to take northern Franklin which would it make it quite swingy without parts of Southern Franklin being  in Stivers district.

Would dumping the rest of Franklin in with the 4th help?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd058ab7-f768-4f17-90a6-c05ea0d977e3
Does this qualify?

[Padfoot]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd058ab7-f768-4f17-90a6-c05ea0d977e3
Does this qualify?

I think you might have some illegal chops in the Northeast.  It looks like the new 13 & 14 are chopping two different counties which isn't allowed.