Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

Really good map, only issues I have is that Canton district you were forced to do and I have a preference for taking  northern Warren and not Butler for the Dayton district.

Also feel like Monroe should be with Belmont. However its not legal IIRC, The Cleveland district doesn't have a district in one whole county .

Should be easy to fix, have Cyan eat the rest of Lake county, Green takes a few precincts from red,red eats a bit of Medina from blue which eats a bit of Stark from Cyan.

Eyeballing it, I think Clinton won 2 districts in Columbus and Cleveland each and then the Cinci district too. Trump won the Toledo and Akron district narrowly and heavily won the Youngstown district. The rest should be Safe R except the Dayton one?

Well that is sad, so here is the legal map with the slash and burn of Medina. The chop of Stark  is bigger when one goes counterclockwise, and switches out the chop of Lake for the more glaring looking one of Medina of the same size in population. Naughty. The partisan figures are the composite score on the DRA. More Pub are the average of the presidential vote for the last two cycles. More Pub still in the Cuyahoga zone is the Trump vote. So in the legal map Trump probably carried all three of the CD's surrounding Cleveland. The numbers for the map with the illegal Lake split are in the replaced map in my post above.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Thoughts on this 8 R - 7 D OH map based on 2016 Pres results?

[MaxQue]

That 8th district is horrible.

[Sol]

Thoughts on this 8 R - 7 D OH map based on 2016 Pres results?

In addition to Max's comment, I also think the splits seem a little squiggly and potentially unfair.

[TJ in Oregon]

@Thunder: Your 11th district is illegal for neither containing an entire county nor being entirely within a county.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

@Thunder: Your 11th district is illegal for neither containing an entire county nor being entirely within a county.

Ugh, Ohio has such precise County rules.

[bagelman]

Thoughts on this 8 R - 7 D OH map based on 2016 Pres results?

snip

how are you able to get 2016 numbers on dra?

[Stuart98]

Tried my hand at an Ohio map



2016 presidential vote: 8 R - 7 D

2016 two party vote (via districtr, doesn't quite match up with the DRA districts because districtr uses different precincts)

01 - D 55.1, R 44.9
02 - D 33.4, R 66.6
03 - D 27.2, R 72.8
04 - D 47.1, R 52.9
05 - D 26.3, R 73.7
06 - D 50.6, R 49.4
07 - D 57.0, R 43.0
08 - D 46.7, R 53.3
09 - D 40.5, R 59.5
10 - D 28.6, R 71.4
11 - D 48.8, R 51.2
12 - D 50.6, R 49.4
13 - D 51.6, R 48.4
14 - D 64.3, R 35.7
15 - D 57.3, R 42.7

[lfromnj]

Lmao ugly d gerrymander in a state that won't ever draw that map. Looks illegal too and unless to do on districts.

[Stuart98]

Edited to improve compactness (and potential legality issues)



New 2016 vote share:


01 - D 57.1, R 42.9
02 - D 31.0, R 69.0
03 - D 26.2, R 73.8
04 - D 47.2, R 52.8
05 - D 25.1, R 74.9
06 - D 50.6, R 49.4
07 - D 57.0, R 43.0
08 - D 46.7, R 53.3
09 - D 40.5, R 59.5
10 - D 30.4, R 69.6
11 - D 48.8, R 51.2
12 - D 50.4, R 49.6
13 - D 51.3, R 48.7
14 - D 64.3, R 35.7
15 - D 57.3, R 42.7

[lfromnj]

So whats the point?
the max D gerrymander?

[vileplume]

Edited to improve compactness (and potential legality issues)



New 2016 vote share:


01 - D 57.1, R 42.9
02 - D 31.0, R 69.0
03 - D 26.2, R 73.8
04 - D 47.2, R 52.8
05 - D 25.1, R 74.9
06 - D 50.6, R 49.4
07 - D 57.0, R 43.0
08 - D 46.7, R 53.3
09 - D 40.5, R 59.5
10 - D 30.4, R 69.6
11 - D 48.8, R 51.2
12 - D 50.4, R 49.6
13 - D 51.3, R 48.7
14 - D 64.3, R 35.7
15 - D 57.3, R 42.7

I don't think there's anyway this would be allowed because any 'fair' map would draw a minority-majority district in the Cleveland area. Thus even if the Democrats were in control of redistricting in Ohio I imagine opposition from African-American legislators would kill a proposal like this stone dead.

A fair map, which would be compact and avoid county splitting as much as possible, would look more like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/42f06907-df90-4796-b0c1-5223013d3874





1 - 54.95% D
2 - 67.27% R
3 - 53.09% R
4 - 69.74% R
5 - 54.97% D
6 - 64.72% R
7 - 53.19% R
8 - 71.47% D
9 - 65.30% R
10 - 60.70% R
11 - 52.37% R
12 - 51.74% R
13 - 54.42% D
14 - 82.47% D
15 - 50.50% R

Basically 5 bombproof R seats, 2 bombproof D seats, 3 likely D seats and 5 swingy/somewhat swingy seats, albeit all with a Republican lean.

The sad truth is that Ohio's geography is very much skewed towards the GOP any 'fair' map that would be drawn by a court or independent commission would ultimately reflect this. 

[lfromnj]

Ohio just got 2016 presidential on DRA.

[lfromnj]

By the way Ohio 2016 has a slight error, the libertarian votes aren't counted, only the green party.

[Idaho Conservative]

Compliant R map for.  Kaptur's district gets cut and Ryan gets a tossup. However, Chabot gets a Clinton+9 seat that would be lean/likely D.  I didn't to a maximum map, that would crack Akron and Cinci, but I didn't want to be too aggressive, this gives R incumbents pretty safe seats while it doesn't look extremely biased from a visual perspective, I just weaponized geography as much as I could.  Overally I'd say 10 safe R, 2 safe D.  The Cincinnati seat would probably only go red in a favorable midterm and the Akron seat is a tossup trending red.  Ryan's seat is currently trending red and this speeds that up lot.  While Ryan has outperformed the presidential margin in his district and this one is only Trump+2, over time he will attract well funded challengers and the district will probably get redder.  I doubt it would stay blue the whole decade.  The Toledo seat would be competitive if Kaptur decided to run there, it is "only" Trump+10, but if/once she loses, which would be likely, then it will probably end up going a similar direction that IN-2 went in the last few cycles.  I think this map could go anywhere from 10R-5D to 13R-2D in 2022 depending on who wins in 2020, after that it probably ends up being 11R-4D or 12R-3D. 

[lfromnj]

If the GOP just gives up with Cinci and keeps it clean they probably won't take those northern suburbs to make it a touch swingier, they would probably rather rescue the donors in Indian Hill. I can definetely see the GOP sinking Cinci ost likely because it would be the most blatantly gerrymandered aspect of the map. Toledo can easily be dragged west Columbus can be explained away with a map of the city borders, and a compact Cuyahoga sink can be made such that the rest of the county is 50/50


 Although Ryan if he did run would probably run in the Akron district he is from Trumbull county in Niles. Also you double bunked too many GOP incumbents eyeballing it.

[Nyvin]

Democrats won the state supreme court.

[dpmapper]

Looks like just one of the two races they needed, so it's 4-3 GOP?

[Nyvin]

Looks like just one of the two races they needed, so it's 4-3 GOP?

Oh, you're right, For some reason i thought Kennedy was the Dem.

[lfromnj]

Ryan and Kaptur have their gooses cooked, but if the GOP wants to avoid the image they might sink Cinci.

[Idaho Conservative]

Ryan and Kaptur have their gooses cooked, but if the GOP wants to avoid the image they might sink Cinci.

yeah, Ryan won by single digits in his dem vote sink seat.  Most likely he'll run in a competitive seat based in Akron, I don't see Youngstown being put with Akron but I think Youngstown will end up in a seat too red for him to be competitive in.  Republicans would be smart to concede Cinci but draw out Ryan and Kaptur.  At this point, both of their seats are actually functioning as dem gerrymanders.  Republicans can pretty easily keep Dems to 3 seats, 1 in each big city.  It'll be pretty clean too.

[GALeftist]

Ouch. Sorry, Tim Ryan. Can't say I loved you but you were probably better than whatever ghoul is incoming.

[Former President tack50]

No one has made one yet, so here is my attempt at a "maximum R gerrymander"; assuming 2016-style results are here to stay (which seems likely judging from 2020).

This map is a 12R-2D-1S map. I don't know if a pure 13-2 is doable or not. Also one of the R districts is far from safe, and can be flipped by Dems in a wave



OH-01: Trump+17, R+10
OH-02: Trump+6, R+3
OH-03: Clinton+43, D+19 (34% black)
OH-04: Trump+12, R+5
OH-05: Trump+11, R+3
OH-06: Trump+33, R+12
OH-07: Trump+20. R+5
OH-08: Trump+41, R+19
OH-09: Trump+13, R+3
OH-10: Trump+14, R+7
OH-11: Clinton+60, D+29 (48% black)
OH-12: Trump+33, R+15
OH-13: Trump+2, EVEN
OH-14: Trump+14, R+4
OH-15: Trump+10, R+5

I did not consider incumbent residences in this map, so maybe I put several R representatives in the same district or stuff like that, But something along these lines is the best possible map for Rs I think.

[lfromnj]

Tack put Western Hamilton in the swinger Cinci district.

[ProgressiveModerate]