Ohio redistricting thread
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Nyvin
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« Reply #175 on: July 13, 2020, 07:49:22 PM »

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #176 on: July 13, 2020, 08:32:52 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 08:36:04 PM by Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil »
https://davesredistricting.org/join/39126b56-cc7b-44e1-a266-03e6353397cd

Ohio gerrymander designed to favor GOPers while still looking clean, compact, and keeping counties whole. No county has more than two districts wholely or partially within it.
OH-01: 53.5-46.5 Dem, D+2
OH-02: 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-03: 69-31 Dem, D+17
OH-04: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-05: 59-41 Dem, D+7
OH-06: 61.5-38.5 Rep, R+13
OH-07: 51.5-48.5 Dem, EVEN
OH-08: 64-36 Rep, R+16
OH-09: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-10: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-11: 47B 43W, 81-19 Dem, D+29
OH-12: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-13: 53-47 Dem, D+2
OH-14: 60-40 Rep, R+11
OH-15: 55-45 Rep, R+7

Probably the most clever element of this map is Dem-trending areas in Franklin being paired with solidly Red areas west.
Only 10 county splits on this map.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #177 on: July 13, 2020, 08:34:46 PM »
Quote from: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 13, 2020, 08:32:52 PM
https://davesredistricting.org/join/39126b56-cc7b-44e1-a266-03e6353397cd

Ohio gerrymander designed to favor GOPers while still looking clean, compact, and keeping counties whole. No county has more than two districts wholely or partially within it.
OH-01: 53.5-46.5 Dem, D+2
OH-02: 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-03: 69-31 Dem, D+17
OH-04: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-05: 59-41 Dem, D+7
OH-06: 61.5-38.5 Rep, R+13
OH-07: 51.5-48.5 Dem, EVEN
OH-08: 64-36 Rep, R+16
OH-09: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-10: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-11: 47B 43W, 81-19 Dem, D+29
OH-12: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-13: 53-47 Dem, D+2
OH-14: 60-40 Rep, R+11
OH-15: 55-45 Rep, R+7

Why keep a lake district when it be cracked easily and fairly compactly?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #178 on: July 13, 2020, 08:48:02 PM »
If Biden can keep the margin in Ohio close, even in a loss Democrats could pick up the State Supreme Court. Would be huge for redistricting.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #179 on: July 13, 2020, 08:49:29 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on July 13, 2020, 08:34:46 PM
Quote from: Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil on July 13, 2020, 08:32:52 PM
https://davesredistricting.org/join/39126b56-cc7b-44e1-a266-03e6353397cd

Ohio gerrymander designed to favor GOPers while still looking clean, compact, and keeping counties whole. No county has more than two districts wholely or partially within it.
OH-01: 53.5-46.5 Dem, D+2
OH-02: 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-03: 69-31 Dem, D+17
OH-04: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-05: 59-41 Dem, D+7
OH-06: 61.5-38.5 Rep, R+13
OH-07: 51.5-48.5 Dem, EVEN
OH-08: 64-36 Rep, R+16
OH-09: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-10: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-11: 47B 43W, 81-19 Dem, D+29
OH-12: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-13: 53-47 Dem, D+2
OH-14: 60-40 Rep, R+11
OH-15: 55-45 Rep, R+7

Why keep a lake district when it be cracked easily and fairly compactly?
There are a few reasons. For one, having it in this configuration helps make the Wayne-Medina-Cuyahoga leftovers seat much more sensible-looking, and also cracking the lake district would require the 14th to crack Lorain and awkwardly wrap around the new 9th. Second, it has risks in a wave. Third, it is impossible to create a  firmly R district with most or all of Lucas County in it. Fourth, I actually did get a configuration with an R+2 Lucas seat and all of Lorain heading all the way to Indiana, but I ditched it because the overall arrangement was awkward and would look atrocious on a map.  Fifth, it is unnecessary - there is upside to keeping things this way, it ensures the leftovers Cuyahoga seat as GOP as possible while still looking sane and it makes the map look more decent broadly despite it being quite a bit favorable to the GOP overall.
In a neutral year the GOP has 9-6 at worst, and in a huge wave Dems have at most 9 seats.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #180 on: July 13, 2020, 09:13:04 PM »
The NE district really should take Portage county instead of Youngstown.  That makes it essentially 5 whole counties (very clean and defensible), and lean- to likely-R, rather than dooming Joyce.  Then you can stick Youngstown in your 6th district.  Akron can pair with parts of Stark County instead. 

Also, why split Cleveland?  Yeah, the lines are a little nicer-looking if you cut it in half but nobody can argue with keeping it whole, and it would probably be better for the 9th, no? 
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #181 on: July 13, 2020, 09:44:57 PM »
Quote from: dpmapper on July 13, 2020, 09:13:04 PM
The NE district really should take Portage county instead of Youngstown.  That makes it essentially 5 whole counties (very clean and defensible), and lean- to likely-R, rather than dooming Joyce.  Then you can stick Youngstown in your 6th district.  Akron can pair with parts of Stark County instead.  

Also, why split Cleveland?  Yeah, the lines are a little nicer-looking if you cut it in half but nobody can argue with keeping it whole, and it would probably be better for the 9th, no?  
I did consider having the 14th take in Portage instead of Youngstown. The issue was that it'd bump into the Canton CD. Broadly another issue is that the 6th cannot take Youngstown without ceding some territory to the 12th, which I am reluctant to toy much with. I'm not wholesale against it though.
I'll look into whether this rearranging is worth it overall.
In regards to Cleveland - it split it for compactness. I suppose it is fundamentally a wash either way though.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #182 on: July 13, 2020, 10:50:30 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 10:54:10 PM by Southern Archivist Punxsutawney Phil »

Here is a revision.
OH-02 is 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-06 is 55-45 Rep, R+7
OH-07 is 52-48 Rep, R+4
OH-09 is 53.5-46.5 Rep, R+5
OH-11 is 82-18 Dem, D+31
OH-12 is 61-39 Rep, R+13
OH-13 is 54-46 Dem, D+2
OH-14 is 63-37 Rep, R+14
All other seats are unchanged.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #183 on: July 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM »
Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #184 on: July 16, 2020, 12:47:10 AM »
Quote from: ERM64man on July 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM
Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #185 on: July 16, 2020, 09:04:31 AM »
The rule about not splitting Cincinnati is extremely annoying because that city has that obnoxious panhandle along the Ohio River and a number of enclaves.
The sad thing is that most American cities have that kind of horrendous borders.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #186 on: July 16, 2020, 09:12:02 AM »
Quote from: TJ in Oregon on July 16, 2020, 12:47:10 AM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM
Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.
Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #187 on: July 16, 2020, 10:32:18 AM »
Quote from: ERM64man on July 16, 2020, 09:12:02 AM
Quote from: TJ in Oregon on July 16, 2020, 12:47:10 AM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM
Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.
Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?
Yes it's been well established that ohio 1st can be moved to trump 7 so it's even more Republican.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #188 on: July 16, 2020, 11:35:58 AM »
Quote from: Battista Minola 1616 on July 16, 2020, 09:04:31 AM
The rule about not splitting Cincinnati is extremely annoying because that city has that obnoxious panhandle along the Ohio River and a number of enclaves.
The sad thing is that most American cities have that kind of horrendous borders.
Meh the enclaves aren't splitting it and the panhandle is still compact. Its not really that bad of a city border. Look at Columbus for a really bad city.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #189 on: July 16, 2020, 11:43:09 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on July 16, 2020, 11:35:58 AM
Quote from: Battista Minola 1616 on July 16, 2020, 09:04:31 AM
The rule about not splitting Cincinnati is extremely annoying because that city has that obnoxious panhandle along the Ohio River and a number of enclaves.
The sad thing is that most American cities have that kind of horrendous borders.
Meh the enclaves aren't splitting it and the panhandle is still compact. Its not really that bad of a city border. Look at Columbus for a really bad city.

Of course Columbus is massively worse, but at least it is allowed by Ohio law to be split.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #190 on: July 16, 2020, 11:49:01 AM »
Quote from: lfromnj on July 16, 2020, 10:32:18 AM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 16, 2020, 09:12:02 AM
Quote from: TJ in Oregon on July 16, 2020, 12:47:10 AM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM
Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.
Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?
Yes it's been well established that ohio 1st can be moved to trump 7 so it's even more Republican.
Would that require cracking Cincinnati?
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #191 on: July 17, 2020, 02:09:35 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on July 16, 2020, 11:49:01 AM
Quote from: lfromnj on July 16, 2020, 10:32:18 AM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 16, 2020, 09:12:02 AM
Quote from: TJ in Oregon on July 16, 2020, 12:47:10 AM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 15, 2020, 12:14:33 PM
Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.
Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?
Yes it's been well established that ohio 1st can be moved to trump 7 so it's even more Republican.
Would that require cracking Cincinnati?

No, it just requires being very selective about which suburbs can be put with Cincinnati (namely look east and west and not north or northeast). Examples can be seen earlier in this thread.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #192 on: July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM »

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #193 on: July 18, 2020, 02:56:54 PM »
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  
You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #194 on: July 18, 2020, 02:59:54 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  
You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.
Wrong
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #195 on: July 18, 2020, 03:07:04 PM »
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 02:59:54 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  
You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.
Wrong
You kept Cincinnati whole?
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #196 on: July 18, 2020, 03:07:47 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 03:07:04 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 02:59:54 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  
You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.
Wrong
You kept Cincinnati whole?
Yeah, look at my DRA link.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #197 on: July 18, 2020, 03:08:27 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on July 13, 2020, 07:49:22 PM

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?



The one with 15 districts Tongue
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #198 on: July 18, 2020, 03:31:39 PM »
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 03:07:47 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 03:07:04 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 02:59:54 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  
You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.
Wrong
You kept Cincinnati whole?
Yeah, look at my DRA link.
Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #199 on: July 18, 2020, 03:41:46 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 03:31:39 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 03:07:47 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 03:07:04 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 02:59:54 PM
Quote from: ERM64man on July 18, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Quote from: Idaho Conservative on July 18, 2020, 04:17:58 AM

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  
You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.
Wrong
You kept Cincinnati whole?
Yeah, look at my DRA link.
Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.
doesn't require that.  Just that a whole county is present in the district.
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