Ohio redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

So whats the point?
the max D gerrymander?

[lfromnj]

Ohio just got 2016 presidential on DRA.

[lfromnj]

By the way Ohio 2016 has a slight error, the libertarian votes aren't counted, only the green party.

[lfromnj]

If the GOP just gives up with Cinci and keeps it clean they probably won't take those northern suburbs to make it a touch swingier, they would probably rather rescue the donors in Indian Hill. I can definetely see the GOP sinking Cinci ost likely because it would be the most blatantly gerrymandered aspect of the map. Toledo can easily be dragged west Columbus can be explained away with a map of the city borders, and a compact Cuyahoga sink can be made such that the rest of the county is 50/50


 Although Ryan if he did run would probably run in the Akron district he is from Trumbull county in Niles. Also you double bunked too many GOP incumbents eyeballing it.

[lfromnj]

Ryan and Kaptur have their gooses cooked, but if the GOP wants to avoid the image they might sink Cinci.

[lfromnj]

Tack put Western Hamilton in the swinger Cinci district.

[lfromnj]

There's a very specific way you need to split Franklin.  Its not the worst of splits and moderately logical although the GOP gerrymander should absolutely not pair either of the splits with Delaware county for obvious reasons.

[lfromnj]

To illustrate what I wrote about the options for keeping Youngstown and Warren together I drew the following maps. My 2020 population projections seem to differ slightly from Torie's because I extrapolated from 2010-2019 trends.

The Dayton-Springfield seat is drawn relatively D-friendly, but that's not my point and it could be easily changed by exchanging areas between the Dayton-Springfield seat, the Cincinatti ex-urban seat and the Southern Ohio seat.

My main point is the different arrangements in NE Ohio.

The first map is pretty good although the Western Cleveland District is a light D friendly. Should replace inner-ring Lakewood which is basically an extension of West Cleveland with the more exurban parts of Cuyahoga like Royalton and Broadview heights. Infact Lakewood is more densely populated than Cleveland !

And then yes obviously the Dayton district should just be Montgomery+Greene+ northern Warren.

[lfromnj]

Which would turn the Western Cleveland seat into ca. Trump +5.

Seems still fair for Democrats:
3 safe D seats
1 seat in Northern Columbus that voted for Biden in 2020 and is clearly trending D
Several more seats within striking distance:
Toledo
Akron/Canton
Western Cleveland
Eastern/Southern Cleveland (actually not trending away from Democrats)
Youngstown (a bit of a stretch now)
Dayton (without Springfield a longshot, but could be in play in a favorable environment)

If Democrats continue to lose by 8 points, then they don't deserve more than 4 seats, but if they make a comeback (similar to Sherrod Brown's performance in 2018), half of the map is in play.

Basically yes, it can be quite "unfair" to Democrats in a neutral/R leaning year with them possibly getting only 3 seats if they can't win the northern Cbus seat either. However also many swing seats that they can win in a good year.

[lfromnj]

Infact the two side cross in Franklin is illegal to Ohio law.


Also Cuyahoga has to be triple split in any GOP made map due to Hunting Valley donors. Also Lakewood and Gonzalez isn't great for him.

[lfromnj]

Infact the two side cross in Franklin is illegal to Ohio law.

Well fancy that. Who knew?

Also I see you try to make the Cinci district more swingy. At this point I don't think its really worth it for the GOP. I Would just put the NE corner of Hamilton with Indian Hill and similar super rich areas in the 2nd district rather than trying to make the 1st district more swingy.

[lfromnj]

Yeah a lighter version of a gerrymander is fairly simple for the Ohio GOP. As shown earlier an actual fair map can only have 3 Clinton districts. A light gerrymander just pushes the swing seats to the right/satisfies incumbent demands.

[lfromnj]

Given the fact that a vulnerable west Cleveland seat seems unavoidable, I see no reason to not just keep the Toledo to West Cleveland sink and that means Akron can't support a competitive seat anymore either, and thus Ryan would be DoA. Keeping a competitive seat in NE Ohio gives Ryan a chance to return, keeping the Toledo sink for at least one more decade has to be a more preferable option for OH Republicans. Basically once those deep blue west Cleveland precincts are out of the way, you can easily put Akron in with red areas, and you end up with 1 Safe D and 1 Safe R seat rather than the 2 tossup seats that are being proposed in this thread.

the snake by the lake can't remain

And most of the West Cleveland maps where you split Cuyahoga in 3 in this board are putting Lakewood with the district when Lakewood should really go with the Cleveland "sink" in either a fair map/GOP map. You can get the district to around Trump +9 with some just moderate tinkering.

[lfromnj]

My attempt at a fair-ish map, although it could also be seen as a light D gerrymander since I've tended to take decisions that benefit dems for the most part



https://davesredistricting.org/join/5be92b90-47cd-4243-8612-39e0add221a9

OH-01 (Cincinnati): Clinton+11, D+3
OH-02 (Cincinnati suburbs): Trump+33, R+18
OH-03 (Columbus): Clinton+36, D+16 (27% black)
OH-04 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+41, R+17
OH-05 (West lake shore, Toledo): Clinton+3, D+4
OH-06 (East rural Ohio): Trump+37, R+14
OH-07 (Canton & Youngstown): Trump+17, R+5
OH-08 (West rural Ohio):  Trump+46, R+20
OH-09 (West Cleveland Suburbs): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-10 (Dayton): Trump+11, R+6
OH-11 (Cleveland): Clinton+61, D+29 (48% black)
OH-12 (North Columbus suburbs): Trump+2, R+3
OH-13 (Akron): Clinton+1, D+1
OH-14 (Northeast Ohio): Trump+15, R+4
OH-15 (Southeast Rural Ohio): Trump+40, R+14

Its ok but not fully represenative of COI's. After seeing the 2020 pop numbers Lorain  + Cuyahoga as 2 districts won't really work out which is why one should split it into 3. And along with that Lorain isn't fully a Cleveland suburban area so its not a perfect fit although It can still very reasonably be kept with Cuyahoga.

Also youngstown and Warren really have to be kept together.

[lfromnj]

Fair-ish map I guess, more of a very light GOP gerrymander, but whatever


https://davesredistricting.org/join/f0acdedc-4596-44d7-8ae1-bd171342fecc

I think the possibility of a Franklin/Delaware seat is underrated especially since Democrats can push for a commission if they don't get the concessions that they want, and it's tough to justify tri cuts of Franklin for any reason other than partisanship, when you can get neat cuts like this.

How is that Toledo to Lorraine a GOP gerrymander?

You literally created a 70% and a 65% Trump district surrounded a +7 Clinton district.

LOL.

Anyway there is 0 chance of that Franklin district coming. Its relatively easy to justify a tricut of Franklin such that all the exurbs can be with the Franklin suburbs and have one Franklin district. Infact Democrat hacks in 2012 were perfectly fine with the Franklin tricut.. Your map is actually a Democratic Gerrymander arguably with that bullsh**t Springfield district D hacks keep trying to include. SW Ohio is too easy to make.

One Cinci
One surrounding sububan Cinci.
Then use the leftovers in the north of Warren County to put with Dayton as there is some clear suburban development too far from the city of Cinci so therefore it logically goes with Dayton.

And even if Democats pushed for Franklin to only be split once the GOP would obviously do it from the South with Lancaster and Fairfield rather than shoving in Delaware. Also putting Grove city and other areas.

[lfromnj]

Did a fair cube root rule map of Ohio.
Several counties are split more times than is legally permitted. In the case of Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and Franklin, this is because it's difficult or impossible to stick few enough cube root rule districts inside them. In the case of Butler and Lorain, this is because it was the only way to ensure that the 2nd and 18th districts (respectively) contained a whole county. This results in an annoying snake in the 2nd's case. Clinton won 10/24 districts in 2016. Biden probably lost the 13th (Clinton barely won it) but he might have picked up the 2nd and 17th.

How is any of this anything but a D wet dream gerrymander?

[lfromnj]

Can anyone give a reason that isn't for a D/R Gerrymander not to draw this SW Ohio? You can maybe nitpick about the 10k people taken from Hamilton or the where does Dayton get the last 30k after Warren+Montgomery+Greene but in reality SW Ohio has 3 pretty obvious and clear COI's and as its population growth has been pretty stable it should be pretty similar for 2020 numbers.

The Cinci district is perfect.

The only problem with the Suburban Cinci district is the inclusion of those NE Warren rural areas but that northern suburban Warren area has development more slanted towards Dayton so therefore that goes with Dayton in an also pretty compact 3 county district with some extra pop. One could maybe argue to take in Preble instead of Miami County to avoid a weird arm but honestly its not that weird or long of an arm.

[lfromnj]

^The fair map of Ohio which I've been picking to death working on has something similar.

Do you know of a way to draw a variation of that which doesn't split townships? I can't seem to figure one out.

Don't you have to split one township either way when one goes for one man 1 vote perfectly with only +- 1 person deviation allowed on the real maps? Especially consider we are working with population ESTIMATES and that too not for 2020 I think you are wasting your time.

I find it a bit too much to go for 0 township splits.

[lfromnj]

Accidently used 2010 pop estimates for the above map. This is 2015/2018 estimates.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/32162d0c-7d90-4871-8556-2cc37d538bb4

Anyone making a good Ohio map really should make a copy of this and then work on the rest. There a lot more debate in what to do in the Cbus area and especially NE Ohio/Toledo but SW Ohio is really easy  with 15 districts and the current population. The only real debate here should be what towns to remove from Hamilton to give to the 2nd(generally either take the Western exurban area, or the NE  super rich suburban area), then where should you get the remaining few thousand people to add to the Dayton district.

Doing this probably won't affect the rest of your map anyway so it should be done.

[lfromnj]

Interesting map



Anyway I looked at your map and then looked at the original streetcar suburbs in Cleveland. Although streetcars are obviously defunct by now they created the first pattern of expansion and are now the most developed suburbs as they were the original ones. So I aimed to keep all 5 of them together. Slight difference from yours.

The West Cleveland district is  pushed 3.5 points right from yours and the Eastern Cleveland is pushed 1 point to the right regarding 2016 Trump numbers.

Merely a nitpick

Anyway,however my standards are super strict for SW ohio due to how obvious to make those 3 districts.  There are more options for the rest of the state.

[lfromnj]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it. Although by my guess It might help you reunite the Newark area.

[lfromnj]

Here's a map which readjusts Springfield. I also made a few edits in Cuyahoga, but not exactly the same as what you suggested lfromnj--I don't love the odd boundary between the Eastern suburbs district and Cleveland. Does this put the streetcar suburbia properly in Cleveland?

Yeah thats fine, I didn't like it either (that boundary with regards to Pike)and I am willing to split one more township but turns out you didn't have to in your estimates.

I would probably also be willing to split a northern Summit town rather than taking an inner ring Akron suburb with the Eastern Cleveland district. Although northern Summit is still Akron Suburbia Its closer to a mix between the 2 areas.

One last thing is I would try to find a way to put Union County with the northern Cbus district although if it would ruin the rest of your map don't do it.

Is Union County really much of a CoI with greater Columbus?

Union and Madison are kind of awkward--they don't fit in great with Ashland and Mansfield, or with Southern Ohio. However, they have a lot of people so if you put them in the 4th you have to lose a lot of people.

Union fits better with the northern Columbus district than the Newark area. Again very small here and just IMO. You also split Granville from Newark.





Anyway this is what I would do when working from your map.

Partisan impact is neglible and only shifts it by 0.2 to the right by 2016 numbers and I would bet with Biden numbers this district is slightly to the left of yours.

One of my smaller Ohio redistricting rules is always keep Delaware and Union together.

Overall yes I say Union is a COI in the area due to its higher income.  Its clear that a large portion of its income is probably due to Columbus commuters.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, but if you look at population densities it seems like Lancaster (and Fairfield) are the obvious fits with Columbus:

Image by JimIrwin, license on Wikipedia. No alterations

Plus NW Fairfield and SW Lancaster are really close to the city, and just seem more Columbus-oriented than more exurban Union.

To be honest if it weren't for Ohio redistricting laws I'd just add Palatka, Elba, and Violet Township to the Delaware district and call it a day.

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200521/census-data-puts-union-and-delaware-counties-among-fastest-growing-housing-markets-in-us

Albiet thats 2010 data. By 2020 you already starting seeing growth in the SE corner of Union. Overall there is a micro community going on between the Marysville/Delaware/Dublin area. Considering you can't really put NW fairfield I think putting Union is pretty reasonable especially when you go by the  UMC nature of the northern Cbus district.

Union County specifically its southeastern corner has seen particularly aggressive growth, Schill said. Growing communities in Dublin, Plain City and Jerome Township, coupled with the presence of the Honda manufacturing plant and research and development facilities, have helped to make Union County the fastest-growing county in Ohio.

As we all agreed earlier C-bus city borders are such a mess its useless. However Union does share Dublin with Delaware and Franklin.

The question with your map isn't what exactly belongs with Columbus but rather what belongs with areas like Upper Arlington/Dublin etc.

[lfromnj]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

[lfromnj]

I drew up this 15 district fair map of Ohio, what do you guys think? Any things that should be worked on?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::558e5a7a-5455-4a0c-adec-71fefd115e72

Your link doesn't work, you probably didn't press SHARE map.

Here it is
https://davesredistricting.org/join/56eb4684-2c06-4eb3-9744-64321e1129e6

Illegal in Cleveland, each district must be within 1 county or include a WHOLE county.

Also arguably playing a bit fire with the VRA as a compact 46-47% black district is possible. I think your map is only like 43%.