Ohio redistricting thread

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1460417072756928514?s=21

[Gass3268]

Kaptur would have a shot in this 9th as Biden only lost by around 3-4 points. Biden won OH-13 by about 1-2 points.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think OH-01 would have trouble in the courts, no effort to make it compact at all. OH-09 is surprisingly competitive at only about Trump +4, Kaptur could could easily win that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dang that map is a whole lot cleaner. Looks like 4 Biden seats but 1 and 13 are marginal. As others have pointed out 1 prolly wouldn't be deemed compact. 15 seems like it could fall in teh right circumstnaces as it's almost entirely Franklin County based.

The more I look at this the more it actually seems like an *almost* fair map minus a few things.

[politicallefty]

It's less objectionable on a few counts, but that's not really saying much considering their first proposals. It's still really bad though. No district contained within Hamilton County and putting Cleveland's western suburbs with counties on the central part of the Indiana border? That's quite a monstrosity. The only real improvements are districts 9, 10, and 13. I've seen some Democratic maps draw the Dayton-based district like that and I considered it myself.

I'd like to see the numbers on 15 assuming that Franklin County is split only between that and 3.

[Gass3268]

These are still gerrymandered, but less so. I wonder what spooked them. I'd be interested to know what the #'s are in OH-15.

[Gass3268]

These are still gerrymandered, but less so. I wonder what spooked them. I'd be interested to know what the #'s are in OH-15.

Saw on Twitter that OH-15 is Trump +5.

[Devils30]

These are still gerrymandered, but less so. I wonder what spooked them. I'd be interested to know what the #'s are in OH-15.

Saw on Twitter that OH-15 is Trump +5.

Considering population patterns this could be a dummymander for the GOP.

[Nyvin]

Doing rough sketches of them in DRA, I got that OH-1 is Biden+1.1, OH-9 is Trump+4.6, and OH-13 is Biden+1.2.

Lorrain to Mercer is absurd.

[lfromnj]

Doing rough sketches of them in DRA, I got that OH-1 is Biden+1.1, OH-9 is Trump+4.6, and OH-13 is Biden+1.2.

Lorrain to Mercer is absurd.

Absurd although not even needed considering 4 and 5 could just trade.  Not sure why they did it.

[cvparty]

I recreated the proposal in DRA (had to estimate OH-15 in northern Franklin). Looks like it's still 4 Dem seats, but 1 and 13 were very narrowly Biden
1: Biden +2
9: Trump +5
10: Trump +4
13: Biden +1
15: Trump +6

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I recreated the proposal in DRA (had to estimate OH-15 in northern Franklin). Looks like it's still 4 Dem seats, but 1 and 13 were very narrowly Biden
1: Biden +2
9: Trump +5
10: Trump +4
13: Biden +1
15: Trump +6

Median district (OH-14) is 2 points to the right of the state as a whole. Interesting.

[Stuart98]

quick and dirty attempt at making their map even worse

[politicallefty]

Don't give them ideas. Hopefully, the Ohio Supreme Court will force something more reasonable. Even a soft Republican gerrymander could be acceptable. The problem is that Republicans in the Legislature are really going for the fences with these maps.

[lfromnj]

Don't give them ideas. Hopefully, the Ohio Supreme Court will force something more reasonable. Even a soft Republican gerrymander could be acceptable. The problem is that Republicans in the Legislature are really going for the fences with these maps.

I mean a soft Republican gerrymander could be fairly clean and probably more effective.The main reason its so ugly is mostly due to incumbent demands.



This is how bad the issue is. There are basically 6 incumbents for 4 districts worth of population. Extreme pain.  Replace the Yellow Johnson with Joyce. As you can see taking care of Northern Ohio is fairly compact. Joyce has a somewhat shaky district at Trump +8 but it isn't really trending anywhere. It's even fairly easy to draw the rest of Ohio  but the issue is giving those 6 incumbents their own seats (you can give Chabot and Wenstrup each a winnable Cinci seat.)

[politicallefty]

Don't give them ideas. Hopefully, the Ohio Supreme Court will force something more reasonable. Even a soft Republican gerrymander could be acceptable. The problem is that Republicans in the Legislature are really going for the fences with these maps.

I mean a soft Republican gerrymander could be fairly clean and probably more effective.The main reason its so ugly is mostly due to incumbent demands.

I would argue that a soft Republican gerrymander cedes the Big C cities to the Democrats. In fact, small changes to the new Republican proposal could make it just that. First, give up on Cincinnati and cede a district entirely within Hamilton County. Swap some territory between 4, 5, and 9 to make 9 a more balanced district. Make some changes to 15 to make it more balanced as well. I'd also say clean up the lines between 13 and 7.

[lfromnj]

Don't give them ideas. Hopefully, the Ohio Supreme Court will force something more reasonable. Even a soft Republican gerrymander could be acceptable. The problem is that Republicans in the Legislature are really going for the fences with these maps.

I mean a soft Republican gerrymander could be fairly clean and probably more effective.The main reason its so ugly is mostly due to incumbent demands.

I would argue that a soft Republican gerrymander cedes the Big C cities to the Democrats. In fact, small changes to the new Republican proposal could make it just that. First, give up on Cincinnati and cede a district entirely within Hamilton County. Swap some territory between 4, 5, and 9 to make 9 a more balanced district. Make some changes to 15 to make it more balanced as well. I'd also say clean up the lines between 13 and 7.

I guess my point is making the seats more compact. It's possible to do this but the northern seat can't head East, as that would take Carrey's hometown but if it takes all of Butler that means Davidson has to find territory.

I don't see why a soft Republican gerrymander does anything but nuke 9. As you can see my map does it and its extremely compact and nothing a court would strike down on any grounds other than partisanship.  Even if one argued that Wood should go with Lucas(It should) then you can still create a Trump +7 district but I don't think Latta wants to go into a hard fight against Kaptur.

Having 15 take all of Franklin after the 3rd is reasonable. It is fairly easy to argue that one in court as keeping as much of Columbus as whole as possible. It's arguable that you could even have Jordan take the Northern part of Franklin but the GOP map only splits Franklin once(which is the bare minimum as it is too big for a single district)
However the GOP had some certain goals. They wanted to create a dem leaning district for Kaptur on the composite so as not to disadvantage her too much. That made the NW ugly. They also wanted to create a tossup in the NE area . This made some ugliness.

Lastly we have the SW Ohio GOP hellhole but yes you are obviously right that splitting Hamilton is the most controversial move and would probably need to given up.

[politicallefty]

Don't give them ideas. Hopefully, the Ohio Supreme Court will force something more reasonable. Even a soft Republican gerrymander could be acceptable. The problem is that Republicans in the Legislature are really going for the fences with these maps.

I mean a soft Republican gerrymander could be fairly clean and probably more effective.The main reason its so ugly is mostly due to incumbent demands.

I would argue that a soft Republican gerrymander cedes the Big C cities to the Democrats. In fact, small changes to the new Republican proposal could make it just that. First, give up on Cincinnati and cede a district entirely within Hamilton County. Swap some territory between 4, 5, and 9 to make 9 a more balanced district. Make some changes to 15 to make it more balanced as well. I'd also say clean up the lines between 13 and 7.

I guess my point is making the seats more compact. It's possible to do this but the northern seat can't head East, as that would take Carrey's hometown but if it takes all of Butler that means Davidson has to find territory.

I don't see why a soft Republican gerrymander does anything but nuke 9. As you can see my map does it and its extremely compact and nothing a court would strike down on any grounds other than partisanship. Having 15 take all of Franklin after the 3rd is reasonable. It is fairly easy to argue that one in court as keeping as much of Columbus as whole as possible. It's arguable that you could even have Jordan take the Northern part of Franklin.

First, I would say that looking after incumbents violates the Ohio Constitution, which says that "The general assembly shall not pass a plan that unduly favors or disfavors a political party or its incumbents." Hacking up Hamilton County assuredly violates the subjective aspects of the redistricting reform.

That same provision above does apply to the other districts. There is also a compactness provision, although that is more difficult to adjudicate. I had assumed there was a COI provision in the Ohio Constitution, but that does not seem to be the case. However, partisanship, incumbency, and compactness are still relevant aspects, despite how subjective they may be. Drawing an Akron-Canton district into ultra-Republican (and rural) Holmes County is a blatant Republican gerrymander,

[bagelman]

I completely fail to see how that ghastly Summit County split, which directly affects me, is in any way acceptable for any sane independent arbitrator. So tired of Summit being chopped up in ugly ways.

[Mr.Phips]

Just draw a 12-3 map that makes the only Dem seats Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus while making everything else at least Trump + 10.  Dems probably wouldn’t even sue on that one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just draw a 12-3 map that makes the only Dem seats Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus while making everything else at least Trump + 10.  Dems probably wouldn’t even sue on that one.

The Cleveland area should have at least two Democratic seats. 11-4 would be believable as a fair map, though, even if it would still be a huge geographic advantage for the GOP.

[GALeftist]

Just draw a 12-3 map that makes the only Dem seats Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus while making everything else at least Trump + 10.  Dems probably wouldn’t even sue on that one.

The Cleveland area should have at least two Democratic seats. 11-4 would be believable as a fair map, though, even if it would still be a huge geographic advantage for the GOP.

IMO the part of Franklin not in the third district should anchor another blue district. A truly fair map for me would consist of safe D seats in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati, a likely D seat in northern Franklin and Delaware, tossup seats in Toledo, western Cleveland, and Akron, and Likely R seats in Dayton and Northeast Ohio.

[lfromnj]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

[lfromnj]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop with a future redraw.