Ohio redistricting thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

A solid map for Dems IMO would have three safe seats in the three C’s, the existing swing seats in Akron and Toledo (with possibly a more favorable draw for the latter). Then they could get a second safe seat in th Columbus suburbs or at least a swing seat there, and another in the Cleveland suburbs. And finally the Dayton seat which Mike Turner would be safe in but could be competitive once he retires.

Unless you see mass retirements in 2024, I think what’s most likely if this agreement holds is some sort of incumbent protection-mander that fully cedes Ds a Cinci seat, ungerrymanders OH-09, and keeps OH-13 more or less as is. On the flip side, OH-07 and OH-15 don’t get much of any more favorable to Ds.

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

As a Democrat, I would take a cleaned up version of the current map. Some parts seems to be unnecessarily ugly. If they reoriented the 9/5 border (drop Wood and the counties west of Lucas for a split in Lorain), made OH-01 entirely within Hamilton County, and cleaned up the hideous OH-15, I'd take it. I actually think the current OH-13 is one of the better parts of the map.

I do wonder if Democrats got some new redistricting deal out of their deal with the new Speaker.

15 really pisses me off because you can achieve basically the same partisanship without making the district look awful. Just take in rub red counties to the South of Columbus.

It's honestly pretty hard to make OH-13 any bluer without doing anything blatantly partisan, and as you said the district as a whole makes sense, so I would keep it (and the rest of NEOH) if I were a Dem.

At first I was confused as to why the GOP made the bluest possible Dayton district (OH), but after seeing Turner's 2022 overperformance I understand.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cut

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

Yes. Under the normal laws, if the state legislature fails to pass a bipartisan map, then the map holds only for 4 years and gets redrawn after 2 cycles. However, the map passed by the state legislature was (repeatedly) overturned by the state Supreme Court, with orders for the legislature to draw a new map. Eventually, after there wasn't time left to redraw the map again and Republicans had made substantial concessions, federal courts stepped in and ordered the map the state legislature had passed used, but only for the 2022 cycle; the old state Supreme Court order to redraw the lines remains in effect for 2024.

Republicans could presumably ask the new state Supreme Court to forgive this obligation (and if they don't meet it, the new state Supreme Court would probably order the current lines reused), but they haven't done so, probably because they expect to pass better, and perhaps substantially better, lines for the GOP before 2024. The agreement in the state House with the Democrats kind of puts all of this into question, because it's kind of inconceivable that Democrats would've agreed to back a Speaker without some sort of redistricting concessions, but the new Speaker was a hardliner on redistricting (vocal 13-2 supporter!) in the recent past, so nobody's sure what's going on. If concessions were made, they were probably made on the state House maps, since the Democrats negotiating have a personal interest in those.

My understanding from before the deal was that after the election the likeliest maps were 12-3, with a sink in Hamilton to go with the Cuyahoga and Franklin ones, but Sykes (especially) and Kaptur (kinda) put into significantly redder seats. That said, Sykes is a former leader of the Ohio state House Democrats and Kaptur has significant ties with congressional Republicans, so both of them might have ways to negotiate. (Peak stupid -- but which I could imagine, and would probably inspire a new redistricting referendum -- is a map where Sykes and Kaptur don't get worse seats, but Hamilton gets cut into pieces to try to doom Landsman, the OH Democrat with the least clout and worst relationship with the GOP).

Ah thanks for this detailed anaylsis.

If Ds redistricting deal was strickly with the state legislature, that would be extremely disappointing given fair map or not, OH legislature isn't a very realistic goal at this point.

Even though it's still crack-able, it seems like the political willpower isn't as strong to crack OH-01 unless Chabot tries to win back the old seat.

OH-09 will def be interesting, especially considering in no maps did the GOP fully doom Kaptur's seat; maybe they just assumed putting her in a right-shifting Trump district would surely mean defeat?

Also idk how much leverage Jordan has, but if he refuses to take in any part of Lucas County, that could be a problem for the GOP.

Finally, does anyone know wtf this map was:



I can't tell if it was a joke or a serious attempt at putting Columbus Ds into a swing seat (even though for practical purposes even this OH-03 would be safe D)

[ProgressiveModerate]

The lawsuit challenging OH’s congressional map will go back to the OH Supreme Court which now has a conservative majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

Isn't the current map enacted for 4 years, and would therefore be used in 2024 as well assuming no intervention? But yes, after that a redraw should be forced.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

I wonder what the chance of a commission getting on the ballot, being enacted, and not somehow being declared illegal is? Commissions tend to be widely popular; the biggest threat is if the requirement to pass initiatives is raised to 60% but even then I think it'd still have a shot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

Not true. The current map was passed by the legislature in March 2022 and thrown out by the old moderate court last July. If the court overturns the decision the existing congressional map just comes back into place.

If the court overturns the old court's ruling, the current map would stay in place but only for 2024 because the map was passed with no bipartisan support meaning the map is only in place for 4 years when passed.

If the court upholds the old court's ruling, the OH GOP gets to redraw but because this new court is more friendly, they'd likely go for a more aggressive gerrymander. Honestly, if this happens, it may help embolden efforts to get a true redistricting commission on the ballot in 2024. Theoretically, a pretty solid 13-2 map is possible under current rules, but it's unclear if the political willpower is there for that both because of the weird "moderate" coalition in the OH State House, and because it'd mean some GOP incumbents would be forced to take in territory they don't want to.

So it's weird because the court upholding the old court's ruling declaring the map unconstitutional is the better ruling for the GOP, but both rulings mean a redraw is inevitable at some point

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

I like the map, but tbh that northeast OH config is pretty favorable to Dems; it keeps both OH-09 and OH-13 (renamed as OH-07 on your map) as competitive seats, in addition to creating 2 new competitive districts in Northeast OH (OH-08 and OH-14). I guess one could argue that trends in Northeast Ohio have generally been poor for Democrats, and that in time, all OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, and OH-14 will all become strongly R-leaning.

I would also be curious how much black population OH-14 takes from OH-11 here? Taking too many blacks out of OH-11 could make it less functional and be a VRA and/or 14th amendment violation.

I'm personally curious if the OH GOP would be willing to split Franklin County 3-ways? Both their original map and replacement map only split the County between 2 districts; one being the Dem pack nested entirely within the County and the other pairing the rest of the County with rurals. While you can make a decently R-leaning seat by pairing the rest of the County with deep red rurals, the only way to make a truly safe map would be to crack the County 3-ways.

Ofc the other big question is are Rs willing to just cede a Cinci seat to Dems at this point?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What about something like this? It generally aims to be least change from the current map, but cleans a few things up and shifts competitive districts right.

OH-01 is cracked to be a Trump + 1 seat and by taking in some rurals, the leftwards trend might be mitigated. OH-08 takes in more of Hamilton, but is still Trump + 15.

OH-09 shifts about a point right by taking in more Republican rurals to the West and Erie County.

OH-10 stays the same because Turner likes his seat and outperforms big time so in practice, it's a safe/likely R seat on the congressional level with Turner even if Presidential partisanship suggests it's closer.

OH-13 shifts right by becoming based in Republican Stark County but still taking in all of Akron. Trump + 3 in 2020.

I shifted OH-15 slightly right by having OH-03 shedding some of it's least blue suburbs and instead taking in more of Downtown Columbus. However, Republicans might not want this cause they want the big banks of downtown Columbus to be in OH-15. Tbh, the main reason I reconfigured it is cause I wasn't up to dealing with those awful precicnts rn; if you use the same Franklin County config as is currently used, OH-15 basically stays the same.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In other news, this iteration is quite an effective Pubmander while hewing to all the right metrics, and would score very high under the Muon2 rules. Pity that apparently both the Pubs (at least some of the Pub politicians) and Mr. X would hate it.     One would think making Jim Jordan sweat like a pig hog would make it all worth it, but probably not. So sad. It's really quite fabulously gorgeous.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/247a02d0-0668-485c-904f-985a27ed4192

I like the map, but tbh that northeast OH config is pretty favorable to Dems; it keeps both OH-09 and OH-13 (renamed as OH-07 on your map) as competitive seats, in addition to creating 2 new competitive districts in Northeast OH (OH-08 and OH-14). I guess one could argue that trends in Northeast Ohio have generally been poor for Democrats, and that in time, all OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, and OH-14 will all become strongly R-leaning.

I would also be curious how much black population OH-14 takes from OH-11 here? Taking too many blacks out of OH-11 could make it less functional and be a VRA and/or 14th amendment violation.

I'm personally curious if the OH GOP would be willing to split Franklin County 3-ways? Both their original map and replacement map only split the County between 2 districts; one being the Dem pack nested entirely within the County and the other pairing the rest of the County with rurals. While you can make a decently R-leaning seat by pairing the rest of the County with deep red rurals, the only way to make a truly safe map would be to crack the County 3-ways.

Ofc the other big question is are Rs willing to just cede a Cinci seat to Dems at this point?

This exercise was about drawing the highest scoring map per the Muon2 rules, and see what one got. I think I did that. The maps are the highest scoring. Obviously, good looking maps can be drawn that zero out all the competitive districts, and leash the Dems to their three inner city cores.

Gingles is not in play. It's not possible to draw a Gingles CD anymore, and beyond that enough whites will vote for a black so the VRA does not apply anyway. Even if it did, OH-11 is black performing. A majority of Dem primary voters are Dem, and the whites in Shaker Heights, downtown, and around Case Western are used to voting for blacks.

Mr. X hates my Columbus act, but the law importunes to keep as much of Columbus in one CD, and I did that. It also minimizes the erosity, and within 99 residents, has a perfect nesting of all three CD's. Having either OH-12 or OH-15 take in all of the balance of Franklin, makes for an awkward map.

As to your map below, Mr. X thinks it will be Pub incumbent driven, and surely you can Pub up OH-13 in an aesthetic manner. What you did with OH-01 will test the limits of how hack the court will be, and the Pubs would be fools to go there. It poisons the whole map. What would be smart is screwing the Dems while having talking points that the screw was mere collateral damage for a map that accomplished other worthy goals. There was no bad intent.

You might provide a link to your map so that others can explore and mess with it.

Unfortunately, I played around with the map some more so don't have a link to that config I can give, though I didn't split precincts so one could probably come pretty close to recreating it if they really wanted too.

I agree your OH-11 would still be performing, but a court may take issue with a coherent black population still being cracked when keeping Cuyahoga blacks whole would only increase functionality of OH-11 and wouldn't be any sort of racial pack. It's also not like 14 would have enough blacks to be any type of "opportunity district" either, especially if the seat is R-leaning.

I like your second config quite a bit (in the sense it's an effective R-gerrymander). I agree to it's probably in the GOP's interest to not mess around with OH-01 at this point cause most legal configs risk failing at some point in the decade, and it makes the map more prone to legal attacks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Signature gathering has began to put a (actually) independent redistricting commission on the 2024 ballot.

It seems to be a variation of what we've seen in other states (such as California and Michigan), but with some minor differences. This is the text that was submitted (PDF). Interestingly, it includes a ranked choice vote for choosing a plan if the commission reaches an impasse. In other words, they must produce a map. It also requires an immediate redistricting of the state upon passage.

I'll withhold optimism though, because Ohio Republicans have successfully beat these back multiple times. If Bloomberg wants to put some money to good use, this would certainly be a good way to do so.

Are there any tactics Republicans could realistically use to stop it from getting on the ballot? Or are you just saying that with the right campaign and messaging from Republicans, the ballot initiative could fail?

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the odds that they just keep the 2022 maps in place?

Unlikely for the reasons poster below stated, but I could def see them starting with it as the base map, and making some sort of deal that they'll cede Democrats OH-01 if Republicans get to shift OH-13 and maybe OH-09 rightwards. Even though at face value it seems competitive, I don't think Rs really touch OH-10 due to LaTurner's strengths and wants. OH-15 will also be interesting cause at face value it could be a liability, but Republicans were willing to draw it in it's current config to keep the downtown banks and other donors in OH-15.

Outside of possibly OH-01, I don't expect any part of the map to change in a way that favors Democrats.

The other option is that Republicans on the commission just go rutheless and go for a full 12-1-2 or even an attempted 13-2, but I'm more skeptical.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ohio-attorney-general-rejects-language-amendment-aimed-reforming-102510233

Can he theoretically just keep rejecting the language to ensure no redistricting reform ever ends up on the ballot? If so, why didn't he do so for other amendments such as abortion.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nasty. One thing that makes OH a bit unique is especially in NE OH, you have a lot of light red suburbs that have been stagnant or shifting away from Dems, so the OH GOP doesn't feel the need to do the "trend-mander" as much as we see Rs do on a lot of other state legislative maps.

Still, both maps should yield OHGOP a supermajority in most cycles, but as another said Dems have a narrow path to break it in both chambers but their ceiling is pretty hard and a majority is completely out of the question (which tbf is kinda gonna be the case on even a fair OH map).

The previous state House map was sort of absurd because the court mandated proportionality, and then the OH GOP drew a bunch of very narrow Biden districts around the state most which voted for state leg Rs in 2022.