Ohio redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

So what's everyones opinion of me copying stephen wolf's map but for 2020? It's from a Democrat oroginal

[lfromnj]

Delaware and Franklin both contain Columbus. Is that not an important COI?

Sure but so does Fairfield county. It's really small portions anyway and the ohio issue 1 doesn't see it as a city split if its in a different county.

[lfromnj]

Anyway if Ds flip the Ohio supreme court I think a compromise map will come up first. Im going to work on drawing a 10-5 map that keeps Kaptur and Ryan shored up and cuts one GOP member and also the Cinci seat. A 10-5 locked doesn't massively favor one party at the partisan level and Ryan and Kaptur would be happy to be shored up rather than take a swing seat. No one actually thought of this scenario realistically in this thread.

[lfromnj]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

[lfromnj]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

Pretty sure Columbus can be cut once

I think I made some double cut there but it could easily be rotated to be fixed, I was a bit lazy in the horrifying mess that is Columbus. Overall the idea is probably a very realistic map if Dems flip the supreme court.

[lfromnj]

I think this might be the best way to divide Columbus. I basically took all of Franklin East of the Scioto besids Westerville and NW Columbus. The rest went to the district with Delaware. That district is R+6 composite(NOT PVI) so probably around Trump +3 or so as the area swung like 6 points left. Keeps the minority side of Columbus together for a 33.5 % black district . Anyway the 2nd district is lean R but still trending D.

edit:



Just moved all of downtown Columbus into the blue district, theres a decent number of bridges there so it seems pretty fine.

[lfromnj]

There we go added some blobs west of downtown and made the green district a bit more suburban in nature. R+6.8 composite but still moving left at a moderate pace.(Think Trump +3 or 4) Overall the river isn't bad for a base area to start with as long as you take in downtown in one district.

[lfromnj]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

It seems unlikely that a court map would draw the 5th and 7th districts looping round each other like that. Would a more compact rearrangement there create an extra Dem seat, or a toss-up?

This isnt a court map. There wont be a court map, read the constitution(not insulting you)
This is a compromise map made by the commision that keeps ryan and kaptur relatively safe and throws Ds the Cinci seat.
In toledo you might be able to squeeze 2 tilt to lean d seats with the 2nd coming from Lorain and west Cuyahoga.In Youngstown you would have one trump +10. Youngstown seat and one clinton +2 Akron seat.  Overall the map slightly favors the GOP on paper but Democrats wouldn't have a problem if Ryan and Kaptur pushed for it to stay safe.

edit: The constitution says a court may not draw any map they may merely reject a commission map, so obviously that means a D sink in Cinci  as no D court would accept that map but if the commission passes it with bipartisan supports its going to be hard to see Democrats sue that map.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Wolf is of course partisan, but your "based on" claim has to be a joke.

The main point where you made his map more Republican is at his 5th, 7th and 9th districts (Toledo, lakeshore, Western Cleveland). These areas had the population for three districts at the time when Wolf drew the map. But first you rightfully took out the areas which are inside the limits of Cleveland to avoid splitting Cleveland. And additionally stagnating population and Ohio (supposedly) falling from 16 to 15 districts further reduces their weight. In the end the remaining areas (district 5, 7, 9, but without the areas in Cleveland) will make up ca. 2.5 districts in 2020, with an average PVI of ca. R+0.5. What you did then was to add areas for ca. a half district with an average PVI of ca. R+20 to shift all three districts into the Republican direction. Even Wolf in 2015 would have recognized this as very pro-R.

Since the state loses a district, causing the districts to grow, and the district cut is republican, therefore it makes sense many districts would move right.  

Ah, and it also makes sense that going by whichever numbers you like (e.g. 2016 presidential) lfromnj's "copied" 15-seat map returns (on expectation) more Republicans than Wolfs's original 16-seat map?

I mean, lfromnj can draw whatever he likes, but saying that he basically copied Wolf's map is just intellectually dishonest.

I mean u aren't allowed to split Cleveland anymore so that's just habit usually. He might have had some problems with my suburban Cleveland district in 2012 but the lake shore was still obama +4.5 and he wouldn't have a problem with that one.  All of the districts that voted for obama still voted for obama.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)

[snip]


https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Wolf is of course partisan, but your "based on" claim has to be a joke.

The main point where you made his map more Republican is at his 5th, 7th and 9th districts (Toledo, lakeshore, Western Cleveland). These areas had the population for three districts at the time when Wolf drew the map. But first you rightfully took out the areas which are inside the limits of Cleveland to avoid splitting Cleveland. And additionally stagnating population and Ohio (supposedly) falling from 16 to 15 districts further reduces their weight. In the end the remaining areas (district 5, 7, 9, but without the areas in Cleveland) will make up ca. 2.5 districts in 2020, with an average PVI of ca. R+0.5. What you did then was to add areas for ca. a half district with an average PVI of ca. R+20 to shift all three districts into the Republican direction. Even Wolf in 2015 would have recognized this as very pro-R.

Since the state loses a district, causing the districts to grow, and the district cut is republican, therefore it makes sense many districts would move right.  

Ah, and it also makes sense that going by whichever numbers you like (e.g. 2016 presidential) lfromnj's "copied" 15-seat map returns (on expectation) more Republicans than Wolfs's original 16-seat map?

I mean, lfromnj can draw whatever he likes, but saying that he basically copied Wolf's map is just intellectually dishonest.

I mean u aren't allowed to split Cleveland anymore so that's just habit usually. He might have had some problems with my suburban Cleveland district in 2012 but the lake shore was still obama +4.5 and he wouldn't have a problem with that one.  All of the districts that voted for obama still voted for obama.

Yes, you're not allowed to split Cleveland anymore which makes the attempt to translate this 16-seat map into a 15-seat map even more futile. Wolf might have had some problems with your Western/Southern Cleveland suburban district, but you're to some degree right that if something like that occurrs in one seat, it's ok, because it's one seat less overall and everyone has to lose something. Your lakeshore district was less than Obama+1.

It's very difficult to say in hindsight if Wolf would have endorsed your 15-seat map in 2015. Yours would actually have been an interesting contribution if you would have said something like "Hey folks, I created a map that in 2012 would have been 9-6 Obama, but where with 2016 numbers Democrats would be hopelessly under water in 11 districts with another district being a toss-up." The question that remains is of course if Republicans would actually like to draw a map like yours, because in 2018 it might have become them to go below the waterline.

Sure but my main point of the post was to reply to Nyvin to show Wolf doesn't actually draw non partisan maps, he just drew whatever was better for Democrats each year. If he didn't have a problem with this map based on 2012 numbers but then has a problem based on 2016 numbers he doesn't actually draw non partisan maps but he keeps trying to claim that and switches around his maps accordingly, he literally screamed about NC splitting the sandhills in 2019 but did the same thing to get 1 Safe D and a tossup seat in 2012. He complained about the GOP MI 5 pack seat but then kept that seat in his 2016 version of the map. Im just pointing out how a non partisan mapper should be willing to accept trends from an original map instead of messing it up to shore up certain areas. The Toledo seat was still a very Solid Obama +14 in 08 however it was like Trump +6.

[lfromnj]

Padfoot , just draw the Cinci sink and I think you got a good compromise map there if Ds flip the court. .

[lfromnj]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

This is actually a pretty good map. It keeps COIs rather intact, and it gives Democrats at least the opportunity to recover some seats if they can win him back Obama - Trump voters. If they can't, they probably don't deserve to pick up many more seats than this map allows. I would love to know what Sherrod Brown's numbers under this map were.

Can I also just say that, while occasionally throwing out the occasional Just for kicks extreme gerrymander Maps is one thing, to have folks like Idaho conservative, krazen back in the day, and others aggressively and repeatedly push for extreme gerrymander favoring their party like rrh does strikes me as a grotesquely tasteless middle finger towards democracy at best, and reading it on these threads at worse sounds like some type of political snuff porn.

The moderators on RRH will literally ban posters for posting Dem Gerrymanders, but then they'll congratulate people for their Republican gerrymanders.

Do you have any proof?

Im not banned.

[lfromnj]

Anyway cleaned up my earlier compromise map and shored up the swingier GOP seats.
Jordan has a 61% R seat and and overall the map is quite compact etc.




Also does pretty well on the pentagram.

[lfromnj]

Anyway cleaned up my earlier compromise map and shored up the swingier GOP seats.
Jordan has a 61% R seat and and overall the map is quite compact etc.




Also does pretty well on the pentagram.

I don't think the triple split of Franklin is allowed with OH-4.    All of the district has to be in one segment of the county.   That kinda creates a problem with only splitting Columbus once on the map.

Is there anything about that in the rulebook?
could you quote it for me?

[lfromnj]

(7) No two congressional districts shall share portions of the territory of more than one county, except for a county whose population exceeds four hundred thousand.

The double county cut between 13 and 14 (Trumbull and Geauga) likewise violates the Fair Districts Amendment.

I'll just take that arm of stark instead then and do a rotation with 7 taking in more of Medina and 12 taking more of summit. Shouldnt change anything

[lfromnj]

Tbh lakewood belongs in the Cleveland seat. It's pretty much urban as its denser than Cleveland itself . Switch Parma and lakewood. Also this is pretty minor but have 4 take in eastern pickerngton county.

[lfromnj]

Tbh lakewood belongs in the Cleveland seat. It's pretty much urban as its denser than Cleveland itself . Switch Parma and lakewood. Also this is pretty minor but have 4 take in eastern pickerngton county.

i just put it in 9 bc it seems similar to avon lake/westlake/rocky river and makes the districts more compact. also idk what you mean by pickerington county

Sorry meant fairfield.

[lfromnj]

Why do people keep putting Springfield in the Dayton district? Dayton district should obviously be Greene and Montgomery as thats the main Dayton metro.


This is easily a very nice cut of SW Ohio to work from. Putting Springfield before Greene is a D gerrymander as Springfield is merely just a separate medium town.  And then the argument for putting NW Warren is it looks more closer to Dayton than Cinci and it has almost left over from the Cinci Suburban district to put in. The only disadvantage is the suburban Cinci district looks a bit ugly.

[lfromnj]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

[lfromnj]

Ok, here is my attempt at making a "high risk, high reward" R gerrymander that still complies with all the rules (I think; I am actually not sure if this is compliant). I did try to minimize county splits and what not; though there are still 11 cuts in counties smaller than 1 district which is quite a bit, but no county other than the one in Cleveland is split more than once; and I also kept Cleveland and Cincinnati whole. I am not sure if you need a 2nd majority black district though, so it may fail because of that instead (though that should not affect partisanship too much, if anything it would make the district even more of a pack)

This map can either be a masterful work if trends hold and what not (being a 12R-2D-1S map), or something that backfires spectacularly (being an 8D-7R map in a wave, or possibly even beyond that)



OH-01: R+9 (58R-42D composite).
OH-02: R+4 (52.5R-48.5D composite).
OH-03: D+18 (69D-31R composite; 33% Black).
OH-04: R+13 (61.5R-38.5D).
OH-05: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-06: EVEN (52D-48R composite)
OH-07: R+7 (55.5R-44.5D composite)
OH-08: R+13 (62R-38D composite)
OH-09: R+8 (56.5R-43.5D composite)
OH-10: R+6 (54R-46D composite)
OH-11: D+31 (82D-18R composite); 48% black
OH-12: R+11 (60R-40D composite)
OH-13: R+5 (53R-47D composite)
OH-14: R+4 (52.5R-47.5D composite)
OH-15: R+7 (55R-45D composite)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09085952-e483-4980-955c-8c8b0606a4ba

OH-6 doesn't have a whole county, and the double split OH-3 does to Trumbull wouldn't be allowed.

But beyond that, there's just no realistic way this map would withstand court scrutiny with the wording of the reform.

There was also no realistic way for the NC supreme court to strike down the map but they made up something. Partisan court means partisan decisions.

Even worse, NC didn't have a 9 page state constitutional amendment in place specific to redistricting either. 

They didn't have anything in specific to redistricting at all yet the court managed to cook up a 400 page long decision . The OHIO GOP can just say Sherrod brown won a majority of districts or something like that showing its not anti majoritarian and then the GOP court will sign off on it.

[lfromnj]

I'm thinking people are kinda overestimating just how partisan the OH Supreme Court is going to be.

If the NC supreme court is partisan enough to make up a 400 page document on how gerrymandering is constitutional according to the state constitution, the Ohio Supreme court can allow this go through.

The main check on a map is mostly the electorate putting a new reform. RRH's map was relatively compact and clean for a gerrymander outside of Cinci so they might be willing to concede that seat in order to take out Kaptur and Ryan.

[lfromnj]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

Nope its perfectly legal to split Franklin and Cuyahoga 3 times. I think Summit is allowed too.(Franklin is bigger than Cuyahoga)

Also do you agree with my cut of SW Ohio?

[lfromnj]

                                                      OHIO MAP BASED ON PROJ 2020 CENSUS

Don't think having 3 districts in Franklin is legal. Not sure if I like splitting Butler over Warren, which is more Dayton oriented.

Nope its perfectly legal to split Franklin and Cuyahoga 3 times. I think Summit is allowed too.(Franklin is bigger than Cuyahoga)

Also do you agree with my cut of SW Ohio?

Ah, mea culpa. Well in any case I still think it's not great fair districting, if that's what Torie was aiming for.

Your cut of SW OH makes a lot of sense, though there's a bit of leftover population needed in either the Dayton or suburban Cincy district. For that pop I don't see any harm in going into Clark, though it seems like Preble is easier without splitting stuff?

Its only 10k so either the southern portion of Miami or the SW corner of Clark makes the most sense IMO and based on Tories map for 2020, it might change enough that you can just remove rural Greene or Montgomery county instead .

[lfromnj]

Really good map, only issues I have is that Canton district you were forced to do and I have a preference for taking  northern Warren and not Butler for the Dayton district.

Also feel like Monroe should be with Belmont. However its not legal IIRC, The Cleveland district doesn't have a district in one whole county .

Should be easy to fix, have Cyan eat the rest of Lake county, Green takes a few precincts from red,red eats a bit of Medina from blue which eats a bit of Stark from Cyan.

Eyeballing it, I think Clinton won 2 districts in Columbus and Cleveland each and then the Cinci district too. Trump won the Toledo and Akron district narrowly and heavily won the Youngstown district. The rest should be Safe R except the Dayton one?

[lfromnj]

Lmao ugly d gerrymander in a state that won't ever draw that map. Looks illegal too and unless to do on districts.