Ohio redistricting thread

[GALeftist]

It seems likely that the legislature is gonna punt to the commission. I wonder whether they'll get their act together and draw an actual fair map.

[GALeftist]

Regarding legislative districts, there really is an impasse. I don't think they would try to actually impose their own maps considering the direct wording of the constitution. A bold move they could consider doing is perhaps renumber the house districts to get better senate districts for Democrats. In that case they aren't really "drawing a map " per se but merely just taking the legislative map.

My money is on a federal court intervening.

[GALeftist]

Commission voted down the DEM plan 5-2 again. Republicans have nothing to propose themselves and spent the entire meeting so far doing nothing but obstruct and provide zero solution. The deadline is in less than 12 hours and they are in a 30 minute recess.

Looks like it'll be going back to the court AGAIN. Stupid pricks.

I look forward to the federal judiciary stepping in to remedy the failed process that is Ohio state legislative redistricting.

[GALeftist]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/02/18/redistricting-lawsuit-asks-federal-judge-enact-rejected-maps/6842879001/

....This was their plan from the beginning. They're going to use federal courts to override state court rulings against their trash gerrymandered maps. They will never allow a normal map or even a lite R gerrymander to reach DeWine's desk.

Aren't federal courts bound by state court interpretation of state law? Given that, I don't see how the federal courts could possibly allow a map that SCOH explicitly said was unconstitutional.

[GALeftist]

https://paulmillerohio.com/gerrymandering/

Although Mr.Millers Ohio map isn't that unfair or anything his website is a dooozy.

In an election with narrow differences in the voting patterns, this could theoretically secure the majority party’s chances of winning more seats overall, but it would be naïve to think that the extra advantage could necessarily overcome the differences between the individual candidates in a race, or other factors such as the amounts of monies raised and spent on campaigns, election fraud, or how the voters feel about certain issues at the time.

One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong...

[GALeftist]

So how long will the court map be valid for

[GALeftist]

Wow, these scum Republicans on the commission have no intention of drawing a compliant map. I wish nothing but horrible things on them.

Really lol

Where was this outrage for Illinois Dems

This is so over the top it’s kinda hilarious

For the umpteenth time, Illinois Democrats didn't even break the law, let alone flagrantly violate court orders multiple times.

[GALeftist]

So when is the OHSC expected to rule on the new congressional map? This should be an open-and-shut case given the criteria already laid out in the previous ruling.

Nobody??

At this point I think everyone has lost track of where we are.

I think probably in the near future? Wasn't the GOP supposed to respond by today?

[GALeftist]

Redistricting really does bring out the worst in people. And in this case unlike in NC where the court was making up law (imo), in Ohio, the woman is actually trying to follow the law.

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2022/03/18/ohio-republicans-want-impeach-maureen-oconnor-over-redistricting/7088996001/

If they decided to go through with this, does the GOP have enough state Senate seats to convict?

They have 25/33 seats in the Senate, so they could lose no more than three votes.

[GALeftist]

Everyone needs to chill out. I think the court just basically asked for a new suit to be filed.

[GALeftist]

My proposal for a fair Ohio Senate map. The 20th is Clinton-narrow Trump and probably still winnable downballot for Democrats. If Dems win that plus all the Biden seats the map is proportional.

[GALeftist]

Yep.

https://twitter.com/OHSupremeCourt/status/1508797052657963008

[GALeftist]

Yep.

https://twitter.com/OHSupremeCourt/status/1508797052657963008

What's the schedule? The links aren't working for me (might be some legal issues with EU regulations).

Evidence within 25 days, petitioners' brief within 10 days of that, respondents' brief within 20 days of that, petitioners' reply within 7 days of that.

[GALeftist]

TBH, it's fine if this map is used for 2022. The House is probably gone anyway. As long as they get a fair map in place for 2024 before O'Connor is replaced by a fascist I'll be happy

[GALeftist]

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

[GALeftist]

They somehow managed to avoid contempt of court.

1) Because they are not in contempt as matter of the right and wrong of it; and

2) Doing so would be a raw exercise in power, except, the in response, in a raw exercise in power, the legislature could impeach any, or all, judges voting for contempt.

The rulings have been a joke. "Fair redistricting" is a phantom that simply doesn't exist. A reasonable notion of "fair" would grant Cincinatti, Akron, and Toledo, one state senate seat for the Democrats, Columbus and Cleveland 2 each for the Democrats, a few swing districts centered in Dayton, and the Columbus suburbs. The rest of the state would be so overwhelming Republican that any randomly generated map would be a sweep, or near sweep for the GOP. The court is demanding that the people who are responsible for executing the laws of Ohio to willfully violate those laws by taking a series of decision to favor the Democrats by carefully cracking urban areas to maximize the number of Democratic seats, etc.

The court doesn't have the authority to issue a partisan Democratic gerrymander, and, lacks the courage to articulate that that is what they are demanding.

There is a constitutional requirement for proportionality. Personally, I think this requirement kind of sucks, but I didn't put it there, and neither did the court.

And, there is a Constitutional requirement not to favor either political party in redistricting.  The requirements are self-contradictory, and, can only be reconciled by 1) acknowledging that the GOP has a more efficient distribution of voters, and, therefore, is apt to win a larger percentage of the seats; or 2) produce a Democratic gerrymander.  The Court is demanding the latter, but, is failing to be intellectual honest about it.

Nor, can I let pass without comment the false notion that the interpretation the Court asserted concerning "proportionality" is written in the Ohio Constitution. South Australia has the same provision, which has always been understood to mean that if you win a clear majority you are very apt to win, and a tiny majority, you ought to win. But, if you fall short of the majority, it never asserted that 46% is entitled to 46% of the seats. In single-seat, winner-take-all multi-district elections the drop off can be quite steep.

Article XI, Section 6(B) of the Ohio Constitution:

"The statewide proportion of districts whose voters, based on statewide state and federal partisan general election results during the last ten years, favor each political party shall correspond closely to the statewide preferences of the voters of Ohio."

The "statewide proportion of districts," it says, not "the overall winner." There is no way to possibly twist this language to service your interpretation of proportionality; it's very clear that the amendment intends for true proportionality to be in effect, and not whatever weird interpretation of it they allegedly have in South Australia.

I additionally take issue with your characterizing correcting for a geographic bias as "gerrymandering." Firstly, Ohio's geographic bias isn't even that bad now since so many of the rurals have sprinted right. Secondly, it's clear that the Ohio constitution doesn't agree with your definition of gerrymandering, or else it wouldn't have included the proportionality clause. It would make no sense to demand proportionality if one characterizes any attempt to do so as "primarily favor[ing] or disfavor[ing]" a political party! For all the bellyaching about textualism from conservatives, you sure seem remarkably willing to bend over backwards in service of absurd textual leaps when it services your own interests.

[GALeftist]

With all that being said, I've been playing around with the Ohio Senate map and the county rules do make it really annoying to get to the magic number of 15 blue districts. There are a number of obvious/pretty easy ones:

- 4 from Franklin
- 4 from Cuyahoga + Lake
- 1 from Summit
- 1 from Hamilton
- 1 from Montgomery
- 1 from Lucas

That still just leaves you at 12, though. The easiest one to do next would be another Hamilton blue district, which is fair, except you can't split Warren or Clermont and Butler needs a district wholly within it. I think the easiest thing to do here is put the Butler district in the east and then stretch a district from Preble south through a strip of leftover Butler in the west to the red parts of Hamilton, which lets you make the second Hamilton district blue. Due to county split rules in NEOH, the only real feasible way to get another blue district there is to combine the city of Akron with Portage, leaving the rest of Summit district narrowly blue. Finally, you have to compensate for not being able to do a Mahoning/Trumbull district; the only way I could find was to really cherrypick for the blue precincts in Toledo and combine that with Wood, Ottowa, Erie, and some of Sandusky for another narrowly blue district.

Honestly, both the county split and proportionality rules are dumb. You can tell what a fair map is without these strict rules.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1516910930721918979

Seems like its over, only question now is if Ohio Democrats want to work with the GOP to reduce the # of swing D seats in exchange for more solid D seats which might be a serious possibility, rumor is the GOP caucus didn't like the maps much either but Democrats obviously don't want to have like 28 house seats.

Wait, how can the court order a map which the OHSC said violates state law?

[GALeftist]

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/05/06/petitioners-seek-remedies-to-congressional-map-for-2024-election-cycle?cq_ck=1651882761587

Meanwhile, nonpartisan voting rights groups, the ACLU of Ohio and the League of Women Voters of Ohio, want the map tossed and tweaked, but only want the General Assembly or the Ohio Redistricting Commission to do the tweaking.

The advocates said, in their filing, if the districts around Hamilton and Franklin Counties are tweaked, then it would be ok with the rest of the map.

Honestly I still don't get it. These 2 groups are playing idiotic hardball on the legislative maps trying to force a Dem gerrymander despite the court having no authority to actually draw a map while they seem to be fairly generous to the Ohio GOP on the congressional maps. Like again as far as I understand it the court can clearly take over drawing the congressional maps, so I am not sure why they don't want the court to just take over and want to leave the Ohio GOP with a 3rd chance.

On top of that the legislative maps are functionally meaningless because I don't see a scenario in the near future where Ohio Democrats win them outright. Maybe they'd win enough to prevent a supermajority? But it's hard for me to believe that a D governor is in the cards.

[GALeftist]

I hope they just sink Cincinnati already. It's on borrowed time as it is.

[GALeftist]

Will this have any impact wrt redistricting? Think I read that the Ohio House Dems thought that Stephens would make a "genuine effort" for fair maps or something like that. I doubt we're getting the Franklin+Delaware seat or anything like that, but could this give Democrats a genuine seat at the table?

[GALeftist]

DeBased, DeGoat, etc.

Well, I would say that it's in a larger group of commissions that are basically designed to deadlock and go to a tiebreaker 90% of the time, including AZ, MT, NJ, OH, and VA.  I would say VA punting to the state supreme court (which is non-partisan and not directly elected) is obviously better than the other fall back mechanisms, but the other 4 are all about equally bad and likely to end up as coin flip gerrymanders.

Ohio is particularly bad because the tiebreaker doesn't even make any nonpartisan pretenses, it's just whichever psychos happen to have been elected to statewide positions. In AZ and MT the tiebreaker is supposed to be nonpartisan and in NJ at least it's not always one party or the other.

[GALeftist]

In all honesty Ohio's political geography is not nearly as bad as Wisconsin's for Democrats. In Wisconsin to make a remotely fair map you have to unpack WI-02 and WI-04; both seats make more sense as drawn than any possible alternative. On the other hand it is fairly trivial in Ohio to get 1 D seat from Cincy, 2 D seats from Columbus, 1 D seat from Cleveland, and a swing seat each from Lorain + Cuyahoga remnants, Akron, and Toledo (and maybe a reach seat in Dayton) which is really quite fair. To the extent that it requires other seats that are bad it's just because of Ohio's asinine redistricting rules.

[GALeftist]

Here's one I just threw together that complies with all of Ohio's stupid redistricting rules. I think it's pretty fair. Trump won 9 districts to Biden's 6. 7 (Lorain) and 13 (Summit) were both like Biden+2-3 and could be on borrowed time, though. 9 (Toledo area) Trump won by less than 2000 votes so Kaptur should be good there for now. 10 (Dayton area) was only Trump+3.5 but I honestly have a hard time seeing it be competitive. 15 should be pretty solid for the Democrats going forward.

EDIT: Swapped Perry for Clinton; looks a little nicer but still not great. Ohio redistricting rules suck lol

[GALeftist]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.