Ohio redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

Hamilton is allowed to be split in this area other counties aren't
edit:  Butler should probably be allowed to be split too and Clermont maybe and not sure about Warren.



If you gonna calculate it anyway do me a favor and calculate this green district. District Looks around Trump +4.5 eyeballing it with obama 08 51.7 and Mccain 46.9 and an R+2.00 PVI when every county in this district trended D in 2012 and Scioto swung D and im pretty sure Cinci should have swung D in 2012 due to black turnout, so im eyeballing an even even PVI in 2012 which means R+4 or Clinton +2-8 which is Trump +6 and then I am probably overestimating it so its around Trump +4.5 to 5.

This district is equalized for 2018 pop.

Here you go:

https://districtr.org/edit/3689

Trump +4.44

Thanks a lot


Actually forgot about west Cinci burbs probably being equivalent to the deep south, the most eastern county is actually only Trump 66% but I think this might be closer to Trump 75% with better turnout.(BTW city splits are forced here due to DRA precincts but split precincts I think are still legal so just pretend the cities aren't split here.

edit: Wow just checked roughly and its around trump 78%. Scioto county is Trump 66% but has a very skewed PVI of R+11 due to Obama almost winning it in it in 2012 so replacing those 70k people with these 70k should boost Ohio 1st to Trump +5 or even +5.5, which is actually the current form.

Considering the current Ohio 1st is around there Chabot would be relatively happy with that.

[lfromnj]

https://districtr.org/edit/3690

Trump +8 using the city of Cincinnati and the East Cincinnati burbs and some deep red counties to the east.

You mean West Cinci burbs as I see on the map?
Anyway I think its still "legal" and possible to gerrymander Cincinatti out of its rightful representation of at worst a Likely D seat(if one were to remove just a few black suburbs in north central hamilton.
Thanks a lot Limo for the info.

The main worry for not conceding the Cinci seat for the GOP now is a possible courtstrike down which could lead to a definite seat loss in columbus and 1 or 2 seats lost in the North, theres obviously almost no risk of a dummymander in Cincinatti as a dummymander would mean losing more than 1 seat in this region which is literally impossible

[lfromnj]

Btw both Chabot and Wenstrup are from Cinci but Wenstrup represents the Eastern counties so he would actually represent the Cinci district so this makes it a bit easier for the Democrats.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/95fc5983-bb04-4e15-9537-cb041eb9f2f8

Here's a pretty fair Ohio map with the new populations. Lack of 2016 data makes an accurate analysis impossible, but here's the numbers how I'd rate the districts.

District 1: D+4. This is a pretty fair Hamilton County district, losing some heavily GOP chunks in the east to the 2nd district. Chabot would be in trouble here, though his defeat wouldn't quite be a sure thing. Lean D

District 2: R+19. This district takes in the counties surrounding Cincinatti, and is predictably very Republican. Wenstrup's from Cincy but I'm guessing he runs here and wins. Safe R

District 3: R+3. This district, anchored on Dayton, also takes in Springfield, Middletown, and Fairborn. Current trends mean that this district is probably going to stay Republican (probably voted Trump by at least 5), though it could be competitive in a wave. Mike Turner would represent this district, which is slightly bluer than its previous iteration (current 10th district). Likely R

District 4: R+23. This Western Ohio district is obviously Safe R, but who ultimately represents it could be interesting. Warren Davidson of Troy and Jim Jordan of Lima both reside in this district, and there aren't really any logical districts to jump to for them. The primary battle could be dramatic, though the GE certainly won't be. Safe R

District 5: D+4. Unless Bob Latta carpetbags to the nearby 10th to primary Bob Gibbs or retires, this district's 2022 election would be a Representative vs. Representative between Latta (of Bowling Green) and 9th District Rep. Marcy Kaptur (of Toledo). It would definitely be a close race - Kaptur probably wins in a Trump midterm (likewise for Latta in a Biden midterm, though he'd be less favored) though Republican chances for this district probably improve as the decade goes on. Lean D, Tossup after 2025

District 6: R+17. While Steve Stivers techically lives outside of the district, he probably inherits this seat. He probably won't mind, especially as this district is significantly to the right of his old one. Safe R

District 7: D+14. Gets a lot more compact and a little redder, but Joyce Beatty is safe here. Safe D

District 8: EVEN. Troy Balderson gets drawn out of a significantly bluer iteration of his old district, which now includes only northern Franklin County, Delaware County, and western Licking County. Danny O'Connor could definitely make a comeback in one of Ohio's few Dem-trending districts. Tossup, Lean D after 2025

District 9: R+12. Rep. Bill Johnson is the natural pick for this Ohio River seat, but Troy Balderson gets drawn in here too, making for an interesting primary battle (should Balderson abandon his old district with unfavorable trends). Regardless, Safe R

District 10: R+17. This district shifts west relative to the old 7th, but Bob Gibbs should be secure here unless Bob Latta doesn't want to face Rep. Kaptur. Safe R

District 11: R+10. The new 11th district, based around Canton, is pretty safely Republican. Thing is, it's not clear who would run for this seat. Anthony Gonzalez could carpetbag here if he doesn't want to face competitive elections in the neighboring 12th, though. Safe R

District 12: D+3. The Mistake by the Lake gets fixed, as Lorain County gets it's own seat (and also takes a chunk of western Cuyahoga). Gonzalez lives here, though he may not want to run here given the district's Democratic lean. Still, given Ohio trends, the GOP's going to be competitive here no matter what. Tossup

District 13: D+27, Cleveland, yawn, Marcia Fudge is fine. Safe D

District 14: D+3. This Akron-based district, thanks to GOP rurals the district takes in for population balance (in addition to losing Youngstown), is actually very competitive. It's technically an open seat, though Tim Ryan probably carpetbags here. Lean D with Ryan, Tossup as an open seat

District 15: R+1 Youngstown, and thus Tim Ryan, get drawn into this seat because population balance. Interestingly, Dave Joyce actually gets drawn into the new 13th, but he'd obviously run here (as he lives in Cuyahoga, which this district doesn't protrude into). Ryan probably goes for the 14th, but the 15th is actually a good deal to the left of Joyce's current district, and could fall in a wave. Lean R

In conclusion, this is a 8 R, 4-5 D, and 2-3 T map, though it could go to 13-3 or 14-2 if things get really bad for the Democrats in Ohio (likewise, if Republicans fail here, it could go to 9-7 D. Geography sucks).

Need to fix up district 12, it splits Cleveland, the Hamilton Seat is Safe D though, you just removed a few light red burbs in the east that are trending D but its Clinton +12 if I had to eyeball, the North Columbus seat is close, around Clinton +6 so Likely D really. there are literally 9 seats left of the composite average and probably 8 left of Trumps percentage(15 is probably like Trump +12.)

[lfromnj]

Anyway assuming you split Columbus to be the majority of two Cds rather than mostly keeping in one CD(a perfectly valid COI split considering how ugly Columbus is.) D's don't really have a major geographical problem in Ohio besides the Cleveland VRA district, they gave a just barely Safe D district in Hamilton and 2 Nice districts in Columbus while getting 3-5 potential tossups in the rest of the state) It is tough to draw more than 4 Really Safe Districts for Democrats in a fair map but thats the nature of the map in a red state. Pretty similar to perhaps 6 district Oregon in which you might have 1 Safe R seat but perhaps 2-3 competitive seats in a fair map

[lfromnj]

Again I still don't understand how taking in 30k voters of Hamilton and building a concentric district around it using almost 3 whole counties isn't pretty.

[lfromnj]

This NE map has 0 major county splits, doesn't have a Dem reach for Warren or Youngstown and doesn't split any cities either as far as I can tell.
Only county splits are The East west Cuyahoga split,a little bit of suburban Cleveland left on the east , rural Portage taken out and only takes a bit of rural Portage and one town from Summit. And the Mahoning is kept whole besides Columbiana if one considers that Mahoning. PVI for the red is D+0.98 but it still voted for Clinton by my estimates as the 3 main counties voted for Clinton by a few hundred while the akron precints removed are swing, the portage precints removed are deep red while the Cleveland burbs are light red. I highly reccomend everyone does this for NE Ohio and work the rest of the map from there.

[lfromnj]

Realistic GOP gerrymander 2021:
- 11 Safe GOP seats to 4 Safe Dem seats. Only OH-01 and OH-14 are realistically capable of flipping this decade in a Blue Wave, but both more Republican than their predecessors.
- Chose not to create a new swing/GOP seat in Mahoning Valley because it wouldn't be safe for GOP, and unsure whether trends there will continue.

Although there is a risk to creating a swing seat in the Mahoning, the Toledo seat can easily be made swing or 2 GOP leaning ones(quite heavily)

Also district 1 and 2 split Cincinatti so not allowed, The only way to keep Cinci in a GOP leaning district is take West Hamilton then immediatly go East to the mega GOP rural counties.

[lfromnj]

Reminder that OH redistricting reform forbids cutting counties more than once unless they are the largest five - in which case they can be cut twice. You are also required to base a district out of those cities large enough to dominate said district (Columbus and Cleveland) and any county between 95% and 105% of a district needs to have a seat based in it (Cincinnati). I also think there are restrictions/bans on parallel cuts (two districts cutting two same counties), but the text is ambiguous in regards to them. There is also minor provisions regarding large locales and how they can't be cut if they are of a significant size, and how one should make an effort to keep them with their surroundings.

The reform is rather strict in it's guidelines, but is lax as far as the gerrymanders observe said guidelines.

That rule, along with the exception to splitting cities applying to only Cleveland and Cincinnati, sounds to me like some real packing and cracking garbage, with emphasis on the former.

Trust me, I know how Ohio Republicans think, and they are is every bit ruthless and shamefaced as their counterparts in North Carolina and Texas about blatant gerrymandering and thinking of any way they can get away with it to maximize their power.

I assure you that the mathematical equation prohibiting splitting cities of over 100,000 unless they're County can support multiple congressional districts is by no means coincidental, as opposed to explicitly planned when the language of this proposal was drafted.

Being able to pass a map with a simple majority was very much explicitly planned as well.

I'd say it's like 95% chance a 4 year map is what ends up getting passed next year, probably with only Republican votes.

Wouldn't it be 85-90%? . If D's flip the Ohio Supreme Court I can't see R's being as stupid as PA R's and not atleast drawing a reasonable map.

Democrats are very unlikely to flip the Supreme Court. And if they do I suspect Republicans would simply try to Bunker down with procedural roadblocks and delays to give them time to flip it back.

FWIW the Ohio supreme court actually has jurisdiction of the maps in Ohio(unlike NC and PA lol where the judges just made up some random stuff), and the court couldnt flip back until 2024.

[lfromnj]

Here's a completely legal, minimal county split plan with mostly reasonable shapes that has 13 districts at a positive GOP PVI. 



Safe D: Cleveland (D+29, 48% black), Columbus (D+21)

Tossup: Toledo+NW (R+0.02), Akron (orange, R+0.18)

Tilt/Lean R: Youngstown/Canton (light green, R+4.25), western Cleveland suburbs (R+3.43), Cincinnati+eastern counties (blue, R+3.86), NE Ohio (R+3.96)

Likely R: Dayton (purple, R+6.85), north central (light blue, R+7.48)

Safe or Safe-ish: Cincinnati burbs (green, R+9), Columbus northern burbs (periwinkle, R+11), Columbus southern burbs (yellow, R+10.5), west central Ohio (pink,  R+19.5), southeast Ohio (teal, R+12.6)

Only issue is that some GOP incumbents are probably double bunked. 

Hamilton county is unnecessarily split.  A whole district can fit within that county.

Its a GOP gerrymander

[lfromnj]

Hmm I wonder what they draw if the Ohio Supreme court flips, my guess is the GOP tries to bribe the Ds with a 10-5 relatively locked in map and tries to keep Kaptur and Ryan as Safe as possible to persuade the D delegation to vote yes.

[lfromnj]

Does anyone know which number seat is Ohio 16th(like 440th or what?)

If somehow Ohio manages to keep its 16th district, redistricting can be very interesting
https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1271508460748918785


Basically if the Columbus seats have to shrink massively that might just keep a 2nd swing seat in the region while the Cinci seat has to lose 1 or 2 titanium R rural counties which pushes its maximum possible composite number up to only +3.5 R

Not sure if his Columbus math is 100% correct about the requirements and how much Balderson's district can take in but R+1 with Dublin is probably a tossup.  So even if Ohio is a R trifecta with mostly R control over redistricting Ohio keeping a 16th district could possibly give Democrats a realistic chance at 2 more seats due to the restrictions.

[lfromnj]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

[lfromnj]

Clean 12-3 map.  A few red districts are competitive (east Cincinnati, Toledo, west Cuyahoga) and the Akron district is the only competitive Dem leaning district.  Over the decade, I expect the Toledo and west Cuyahoga districts to become safely republican, but east Cincinnati and Akron districts become more competitive.  
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6cc98b62-0126-4e4e-91b1-937118f5949c

You aren't allowed to split Cincinatti. Look earlier in the thread on how to gerrymander Cincinnati. There is literally only one path.

I'm pretty sure large cities can be split

Actually the largest cities that are above 100k in pop cant be split.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

How is this legal given the state's guidelines about not cutting counties?

16 counties may be cut and 2 may be double cut. Pretty sure its legal. You have to split some counties no matter what.

Even if it is, the legal arguments in this map are next to nothing regarding not favoring a political party and not splitting up communities of interests etc.   If the court is anything but a hyper partisan Republican hack job it would get struck down.

Oh, I just noticed that *SIX* of the Republican districts are R+5 or less. This is a dummymander that would collapse in a 2020-like environment.

lol, R+5 in Ohio outside of Columbus or Cleveland is double digit Trump like Ohio 14th. This might backfire with the suburban Cleveland district a bit but everything else is Safe R.

You can’t anchor a district in Toledo or Akron and make it safe R. Besides, isn’t PVI based on the national results, not state results? R+4 on national results is a seat Biden’s probably going to win this year.

(EDIT) I checked the DRA link. That Toledo district is R+4 which means it just barely went to Trump. This is a dummymander, end of story.

R+4 literally means combined PVI of 2016 and 2012. Which means 2012 numbers are still included lol. The Toledo district is literally trump +11 if you trace it on districtr
https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1282036322824118272

And the Cincinatti seat isn't even a dummymander even if it flips because that seat that doesn't affect any other seats besides Ohio 1st.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/39126b56-cc7b-44e1-a266-03e6353397cd

Ohio gerrymander designed to favor GOPers while still looking clean, compact, and keeping counties whole. No county has more than two districts wholely or partially within it.
OH-01: 53.5-46.5 Dem, D+2
OH-02: 68-32 Rep, R+19
OH-03: 69-31 Dem, D+17
OH-04: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-05: 59-41 Dem, D+7
OH-06: 61.5-38.5 Rep, R+13
OH-07: 51.5-48.5 Dem, EVEN
OH-08: 64-36 Rep, R+16
OH-09: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-10: 53-47 Rep, R+5
OH-11: 47B 43W, 81-19 Dem, D+29
OH-12: 62-38 Rep, R+13
OH-13: 53-47 Dem, D+2
OH-14: 60-40 Rep, R+11
OH-15: 55-45 Rep, R+7

Why keep a lake district when it be cracked easily and fairly compactly?

[lfromnj]

Doesn't Cincinnati get a Democratic district because of the rules on county splitting?

Not necessarily. The main constraint involved is that you can't split the city of Cincinnati. It is possible to put Cincinnati in a Republican district by being very judicious about what suburbs go with it and attaching Clermont County.

Would it still be less Republican than the current OH-01?

Yes it's been well established that ohio 1st can be moved to trump 7 so it's even more Republican.

[lfromnj]

The rule about not splitting Cincinnati is extremely annoying because that city has that obnoxious panhandle along the Ohio River and a number of enclaves.
The sad thing is that most American cities have that kind of horrendous borders.

Meh the enclaves aren't splitting it and the panhandle is still compact. Its not really that bad of a city border. Look at Columbus for a really bad city.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

The one with 15 districts

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Perhaps the best answer to stop gerrymandering is to force binding drafts of maps to be made 8 years prior to the census

Of course Mr. Wolf's opinion is simply whatever increases the number of Democrats elected.

Yup if he saw this map in 2012 he would be perfectly happy with it besides maybe the Cleveland suburban district. Now he would call it a GOP gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

CV could you show district numbers or colors ?