Ohio redistricting thread

[Nyvin]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

This is actually a pretty good map. It keeps COIs rather intact, and it gives Democrats at least the opportunity to recover some seats if they can win him back Obama - Trump voters. If they can't, they probably don't deserve to pick up many more seats than this map allows. I would love to know what Sherrod Brown's numbers under this map were.

Can I also just say that, while occasionally throwing out the occasional Just for kicks extreme gerrymander Maps is one thing, to have folks like Idaho conservative, krazen back in the day, and others aggressively and repeatedly push for extreme gerrymander favoring their party like rrh does strikes me as a grotesquely tasteless middle finger towards democracy at best, and reading it on these threads at worse sounds like some type of political snuff porn.

The moderators on RRH will literally ban posters for posting Dem Gerrymanders, but then they'll congratulate people for their Republican gerrymanders.

[Idaho Conservative]

At this point, it is unclear which counties can be split.  But I had read that it was only the most populated ones.  The amendment does include language that it will have to be determined not just how many counties can be split, but also which.  

literally every map in this thread but yours has small county splits and there's nothing in the constitution that prohibits it, so stop claiming it's illegal because you "had read that" from an unnamed source as opposed to the actual state constitution

My fair map keeps communities together, what you said is hogwash.  I guess Democrats count as a community of interest to you lol.  Also my California map (totally irreverent to this discussion btw) gave republicans fewer seats than their statewide vote share, due to political geography.  My Ohio map does the same to democrats.  Just how the cookie crumbles.  

this whole paragraph might be the most foolish thing you've ever said. there's so many things wrong with your map, but any map that separates delaware and franklin counties is already bad. i drew my map with partisan data off, it gives trump 60% of the districts, and by no means maximizes dem votes (see: akron, elyria, youngstown) nor GOP ones so and my point is you very clearly draw with a republican bias to try to "correct" (to an extent) states with a dem-favoring geography (CA), but in states with a neutral or GOP-favoring geography, you suddenly don't care about the statewide vote and actually gerrymander even more, all while claiming to preserve unnamed COIs every time. there is no consistency there except wanting republicans to win. you know it's kind of disappointing that you don't make any genuine contributions to the whole redistricting conversation

LMAO

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

[I’m not Stu]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

No it doesn’t. Too many county splits. Cincinnati should be in Hamilton-only OH-01.

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

No it doesn’t. Too many county splits. Cincinnati should be in Hamilton-only OH-01.

My map has fewer county splits than the limit.  Actually less than most maps here do.

[MaxQue]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

This is actually a pretty good map. It keeps COIs rather intact, and it gives Democrats at least the opportunity to recover some seats if they can win him back Obama - Trump voters. If they can't, they probably don't deserve to pick up many more seats than this map allows. I would love to know what Sherrod Brown's numbers under this map were.

Can I also just say that, while occasionally throwing out the occasional Just for kicks extreme gerrymander Maps is one thing, to have folks like Idaho conservative, krazen back in the day, and others aggressively and repeatedly push for extreme gerrymander favoring their party like rrh does strikes me as a grotesquely tasteless middle finger towards democracy at best, and reading it on these threads at worse sounds like some type of political snuff porn.

The moderators on RRH will literally ban posters for posting Dem Gerrymanders, but then they'll congratulate people for their Republican gerrymanders.

Too bad we are stuck with far-right enabling mods here.

[Nyvin]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

It would only be struck down by a dem court.  It follows the criteria.

It follows the numerical structures of the reform (mainly county and municipal splits).   Pretty much anything else that's written in the reform it rips to shreds though.

3. (a) The general assembly shall not pass a plan that unduly favors or disfavors a political party or its incumbents.

3. (c) Division (B)(2) of Section 2 of this article shall not apply to the plan. The general assembly shall attempt to draw districts that are compact.

3. (d) The general assembly shall include in the plan an explanation of the plan's compliance with divisions (F)(3)(a) to (c) of this section.

B. (2) Every congressional district shall be compact.

The map clearly throws 3a out the window, I don't see how any argument can be made that the districts are compact in anyway at all for sections 3c or B2.

Finally, I'd just love to see the OH GOP write up explanations on their decision to create said districts going from Columbus to Meigs or Toledo to Darke, and not include the Cininnati suburbs with Cincinnati to satisfy 3d.

[Idaho Conservative]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

[lfromnj]

Anyway if Ds flip the Ohio supreme court I think a compromise map will come up first. Im going to work on drawing a 10-5 map that keeps Kaptur and Ryan shored up and cuts one GOP member and also the Cinci seat. A 10-5 locked doesn't massively favor one party at the partisan level and Ryan and Kaptur would be happy to be shored up rather than take a swing seat. No one actually thought of this scenario realistically in this thread.

[I’m not Stu]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

[Idaho Conservative]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

nope.  Objective is a numerical standard.  Whether a map is fair is a matter of opinion.

[I’m not Stu]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

nope.  Objective is a numerical standard.  Whether a map is fair is a matter of opinion.

I heard that if one district can be located in only one county, then it must. That is a numerical standard.

[lfromnj]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

[Idaho Conservative]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

Pretty sure Columbus can be cut once

[Idaho Conservative]

again, your opinion doesn't matter.  Only the court's, which is currently repub.

The rules described are objective. Most courts understand this is easy.

nope.  Objective is a numerical standard.  Whether a map is fair is a matter of opinion.

I heard that if one district can be located in only one county, then it must. That is a numerical standard.

The rules don't say that

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5310496-ef2c-4deb-9eda-46ef5dafeb4b

A more likely map the GOP would draw if they keep the court.  Kaptur's district is cut, she could run against Latta in a Trump+7 district.  Tossup/Tilt R. 

Chabot gets a Clinton+9 district and would likely lose unless it's a Biden midterm.  If he won in 2022, he'd almost certainly lose (or retire) in 2024.

Tim Ryan gets a Trump+2 Akron/Canton district.  He doesn't live in it, but would probably run there.  Tossup/Tilt D. 

All other incumbents should be safe. 

[lfromnj]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

Pretty sure Columbus can be cut once

I think I made some double cut there but it could easily be rotated to be fixed, I was a bit lazy in the horrifying mess that is Columbus. Overall the idea is probably a very realistic map if Dems flip the supreme court.

[I’m not Stu]

Columbus can be split once.

[lfromnj]

I think this might be the best way to divide Columbus. I basically took all of Franklin East of the Scioto besids Westerville and NW Columbus. The rest went to the district with Delaware. That district is R+6 composite(NOT PVI) so probably around Trump +3 or so as the area swung like 6 points left. Keeps the minority side of Columbus together for a 33.5 % black district . Anyway the 2nd district is lean R but still trending D.

edit:



Just moved all of downtown Columbus into the blue district, theres a decent number of bridges there so it seems pretty fine.

[Idaho Conservative]

I think this might be the best way to divide Columbus. I basically took all of Franklin East of the Scioto besids Westerville and NW Columbus. The rest went to the district with Delaware. That district is R+6 composite(NOT PVI) so probably around Trump +3 or so as the area swung like 6 points left. Keeps the minority side of Columbus together for a 33.5 % black district . Anyway the 2nd district is lean R but still trending D.

No way the gop draws that tho.

[cvparty]

I think this might be the best way to divide Columbus. I basically took all of Franklin East of the Scioto besids Westerville and NW Columbus. The rest went to the district with Delaware. That district is R+6 composite(NOT PVI) so probably around Trump +3 or so as the area swung like 6 points left. Keeps the minority side of Columbus together for a 33.5 % black district . Anyway the 2nd district is lean R but still trending D.

edit:
Just moved all of downtown Columbus into the blue district, theres a decent number of bridges there so it seems pretty fine.

it makes more sense in terms of COIs to put new albany, upper arlington, clintonville etc. in the green district in exchange for sw franklin/columbus (there's a pretty significant minority pop there)

[lfromnj]

There we go added some blobs west of downtown and made the green district a bit more suburban in nature. R+6.8 composite but still moving left at a moderate pace.(Think Trump +3 or 4) Overall the river isn't bad for a base area to start with as long as you take in downtown in one district.

[palandio]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Wolf is of course partisan, but your "based on" claim has to be a joke.

The main point where you made his map more Republican is at his 5th, 7th and 9th districts (Toledo, lakeshore, Western Cleveland). These areas had the population for three districts at the time when Wolf drew the map. But first you rightfully took out the areas which are inside the limits of Cleveland to avoid splitting Cleveland. And additionally stagnating population and Ohio (supposedly) falling from 16 to 15 districts further reduces their weight. In the end the remaining areas (district 5, 7, 9, but without the areas in Cleveland) will make up ca. 2.5 districts in 2020, with an average PVI of ca. R+0.5. What you did then was to add areas for ca. a half district with an average PVI of ca. R+20 to shift all three districts into the Republican direction. Even Wolf in 2015 would have recognized this as very pro-R.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Wolf is of course partisan, but your "based on" claim has to be a joke.

The main point where you made his map more Republican is at his 5th, 7th and 9th districts (Toledo, lakeshore, Western Cleveland). These areas had the population for three districts at the time when Wolf drew the map. But first you rightfully took out the areas which are inside the limits of Cleveland to avoid splitting Cleveland. And additionally stagnating population and Ohio (supposedly) falling from 16 to 15 districts further reduces their weight. In the end the remaining areas (district 5, 7, 9, but without the areas in Cleveland) will make up ca. 2.5 districts in 2020, with an average PVI of ca. R+0.5. What you did then was to add areas for ca. a half district with an average PVI of ca. R+20 to shift all three districts into the Republican direction. Even Wolf in 2015 would have recognized this as very pro-R.

Since the state loses a district, causing the districts to grow, and the district cut is republican, therefore it makes sense many districts would move right.  

[EastAnglianLefty]

There
This is probably a realistic map of sorts if Democrats flip the supreme court after reading through it.

This is a rule compliant although not super compact but relatively partisan equal(5 Safe D and 10 Safe R)

Democrats might take this especially considering flipped court means Biden midterm. Ryan and Kaptur are kept in relatively safe seats(Kaptur 59% D comp and Ryan at 58% D composite)
Also gives the Cincinatti seat.

I guess if any other seats were to flip it would be Joyce at +5 R composite but that should be relatively secure by now. Safe R
Also Jim Jordans seat is +10 R composite but also takes in the most #resistance areas of all of Ohio so its probably only +11 Trump so more or less the same as the current Ohio 12th. Likely R.

Balderson gets cut along with Chabot.

It seems unlikely that a court map would draw the 5th and 7th districts looping round each other like that. Would a more compact rearrangement there create an extra Dem seat, or a toss-up?